Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services

East Africa’s Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake’s shores and abroad. In particular, the lake’s fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria’s system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake’s social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks’ vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society’s vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.

Impact of range expansions on current human genomic diversity

The patterns of population genetic diversity depend to a large extent on past demographic history. Most human populations are known to have gone recently through a series of range expansions within and out of Africa, but these spatial expansions are rarely taken into account when interpreting observed genomic diversity, possibly because they are difficult to model. Here we review available evidence in favour of range expansions out of Africa, and we discuss several of their consequences on neutral and selected diversity, including some recent observations on an excess of rare neutral and selected variants in large samples. We further show that in spatially subdivided populations, the sampling strategy can severely impact the resulting genetic diversity and be confounded by past demography. We conclude that ignoring the spatial structure of human population can lead to some misinterpretations of extant genetic diversity.

Models of hybridization during range expansions and their application to recent human evolution

Several lines of genetic, archeological and paleontological evidence suggest that anatomically modern humans (Homo sapiens) colonized the world in the last 60,000 years by a series of migrations originating from Africa (e.g. Liu et al., 2006; Handley et al., 2007; Prugnolle, Manica, and Balloux, 2005; Ramachandran et al. 2005; Li et al. 2008; Deshpande et al. 2009; Mellars, 2006a, b; Lahr and Foley, 1998; Gravel et al., 2011; Rasmussen et al., 2011). With the progress of ancient DNA analysis, it has been shown that archaic humans hybridized with modern humans outside Africa. Recent direct analyses of fossil nuclear DNA have revealed that 1–4 percent of the genome of Eurasian has been likely introgressed by Neanderthal genes (Green et al., 2010; Reich et al., 2010; Vernot and Akey, 2014; Sankararaman et al., 2014; Prufer et al., 2014; Wall et al., 2013), with Papua New Guineans and Australians showing even larger levels of admixture with Denisovans (Reich et al., 2010; Skoglund and Jakobsson, 2011; Reich et al., 2011; Rasmussen et al., 2011). It thus appears that the past history of our species has been more complex than previously anticipated (Alves et al., 2012), and that modern humans hybridized several times with local hominins during their expansion out of Africa, but the exact mode, time and location of these hybridizations remain to be clarifi ed (Ibid.; Wall et al., 2013). In this context, we review here a general model of admixture during range expansion, which lead to some predictions about expected patterns of introgression that are relevant to modern human evolution.

Long-term hydrological dynamics and fire history over the last 2000 years in CE Europe reconstructed from a high-resolution peat archive

Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland are currently influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors that lead to peat desiccation and susceptibility to fire. Little is known about the response of Sphagnum peatland testate amoebae (TA) to the combined effects of drought and fire. To understand the relationships between hydrology and fire dynamics, we used high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoecological data to reconstruct 2000 years of mire history in northern Poland. We employed a new approach for Polish peatlands – joint TA-based water table depth and charcoal-inferred fire activity reconstructions. In addition, the response of most abundant TA hydrological indicators to charcoal-inferred fire activity was assessed. The results show four hydrological stages of peatland development: moderately wet (from ∼35 BC to 800 AD), wet (from ∼800 to 1390 AD), dry (from ∼1390 to 1700 AD) and with an instable water table (from ∼1700 to 2012 AD). Fire activity has increased in the last millennium after constant human presence in the mire surroundings. Higher fire activity caused a rise in the water table, but later an abrupt drought appeared at the onset of the Little Ice Age. This dry phase is characterized by high ash contents and high charcoal-inferred fire activity. Fires preceded hydrological change and the response of TA to fire was indirect. Peatland drying and hydrological instability was connected with TA community changes from wet (dominance of Archerella flavum, Hyalosphenia papilio, Amphitrema wrightianum) to dry (dominance of Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda); however, no clear fire indicator species was found. Anthropogenic activities can increase peat fires and cause substantial hydrology changes. Our data suggest that increased human fire activity was one of the main factors that influenced peatland hydrology, though the mire response through hydrological changes towards drier conditions was delayed in relation to the surrounding vegetation changes.

Schnidejoch (2756 m a.s.l., Western Bernese Alps, Switzerland). Did Holocene glacier advances close the alpine pass for human transhumance?

A series of more than 70 radiocarbon dates confirms that the Schnidejoch pass, linking the Bernese Highlands with the River Rhone valley, was in use at least from 4800–4500 BC on. The pass was of easy access when the glaciers from the nearby Wildhorn mountain range (peak on 3248 a.s.l) were in a retreating phase e.g. as is the situation today. During holocene phases of advancing glaciers the pass was blocked for humans accompanied by herding animals. The presentation reviews the publication of Grosjean et al. (Ice-borne prehistoric finds in the Swiss Alps reflect Holocene glacier fluctuations, JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE, 200, 22.3, 203–207) on a larger basis of radiocarbon dating and discusses the position of the pass within a system of prehistoric settlements, camp sites and passes.

Diet and mobility of an Iron Age population in Switzerland; Stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope analysis of the human remains from Münsingen

The 220 abundantly equipped burials from the Late Iron Age cemetery of Münsingen (420 – 240 BC) marked a milestone for Iron Age research. The evident horizontal spread throughout the time of occupancy laid the foundation for the chronology system of the Late Iron Age. Today the skulls of 77 individuals and some postcranial bones are still preserved. The aim was to obtain information about nutrition, social stratification and migration of the individuals from Münsingen. Stable isotope ratios of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur were analysed. The results of 63 individuals show that all consumed C3 plants as staple food with significant differences between males and females in δ13C and δ15N values. The results indicate a gender restriction in access to animal protein. Stable isotope values of one male buried with weapons and meat as grave goods suggest a diet with more animal proteins than the other individuals. It is possible that he was privileged due to high status. Furthermore, the δ34S values indicate minor mobility. Assuming that the subadults represent the local signal of δ34S it is very likely that adults with enriched δ34S could have migrated to Münsingen at some point during their lives. This study presents stable isotope values of one of the most important Late Iron Age burial sites in Central Europe. The presented data provide new insight into diet, migration and social stratification of the population from Münsingen.

Social stratigraphy in Late Iron Age Switzerland: Analysis of human remains from Münsingen

The Iron Age cemetery of Münsingen in Switzerland with 220 abundantly equipped burials marked a milestone for Iron Age research. The horizontal spread throughout the time of its occupancy laid the foundation for the chronology system of the Late Iron Age. Today, skulls of 77 individuals and some postcranial bones are still preserved and were investigated anthropologically. Collagen was analysed via stable isotope mass spectrometry (carbon, nitrogen, and sulphur). Additionally, some bones showed pathologies or lesions which were examined via imaging and histological methods. The aim of the study was to obtain biological-anthropological information about the Iron Age population. There are significant differences between males and females in δ13C and δ15N values. This points to a gender restriction in the access to animal protein with males having more access to meat and dairy products. Differences in δ15N values were also observed for different age classes. δ34S values indicate a terrestrial-based diet with no significant intake of marine or freshwater fish. Seven adults with enriched δ34S values might have immigrated to Münsingen, four of which were found in the oldest part of the cemetery. Furthermore, possible changes of the vegetation are indicated by the more positive stable carbon ratios in the later phases. The results lead to the suggestion that especially males buried with weapons might have played a special role in the Iron Age society. Also, skull trepanations in two males suggest that surgical treatment of injuries caused by weapons may have been performed.

Human and climatic impact on mires: a case study of Les Amburnex mire, Swiss Jura Mountains

Modern period long-term human and climatic impacts on a small mire in the Jura Mountains were assessed using testate amoebae, macrofossils and pollen. This multiproxy data analysis permitted detailed interpretations of local and regional environmental change and thus a partial disentanglement of the different variables that influence long-term mire development. From the Middle Ages until a.d. 1700 the mire vegetation was characterised by ferns, Caltha and Vaccinium, but then abruptly changed into the modern vegetation characterised by Cyperaceae, Potentilla and Sphagnum. The cause for this change was most probably deforestation, possibly enhanced by climatic cooling. A decrease in trampling intensity by domestic animals from a.d. 1950 onwards allowed Sphagnum growth and climatic warming in the a.d. 1980s and 1990s may have been responsible for considerable changes in the species composition. The mire investigated is an example of the rapid changes in mire vegetation and peat development that occurred throughout the central European mountain region during the past centuries as a result of changing climate and land-use practice. These processes are still active today and will determine the future development of high-altitude mires.

Fire ecology north and south of the Alps since the last ice age

Wildfires are very rare in central Europe, which is probably why fire effects on vegetation have been neglected by most central European ecologists and palaeoecologists. Presently, reconstructions of fire history and fire ecology are almost absent. We analysed sediment cores from lakes on the Swiss Plateau (Lobsigensee and Soppensee) for pollen and charcoal to investigate the relationship between vegetation and fire. Microscopic charcoal evidence suggests increasing regional fire frequencies during the Neolithic (7350-4150 cal. BP, 5400-2200 BC) and the subsequent prehistoric epochs at Lobsigensee, whereas at Soppensee burnings remained rather rare until modern times. Neolithic peaks of charcoal at 6200 and 5500 cal. BP (4250 and 3550 BC) coincided with declines of pollen of fire-sensitive taxa at both sites (e.g., Ulmus, Tilia, Hedera, Fagus), suggesting synchronous vegetational responses to fire at regional scales. However, correlation analysis between charcoal and pollen for the period 6600-4400 cal. BP (4650-2650 BC) revealed no significant link between fire and vegetation at Soppensee, whereas at Lobsigensee increases of Corylus and decreases of Fagus were related to fire events. Fire impact on vegetation increased during the subsequent epochs at both sites. Correlation analyses of charcoal and pollen data for the period 4250-1150 cal. BP (2300 BC -AD 800) suggest that fires were intentionally set to disrupt forests and to provide open areas for arable and pastoral farming (e.g., significant positive correlations between charcoal and Cerealia, Plantago lanceolata, Asteroideae). These results are compared with southern European records (Lago di Origlio, Lago di Muzzano), which are situated in particularly fire-prone environments. After the Mesolithic period (I1 200-7350 cal. BP, 9250-5400 BC), charcoal influx was higher by an order of magnitude in the south, suggesting more frequent fires. Neolithic fires caused similar though more pronounced responses of vegetation in the south (e.g., expansions of Corylus). Post-Neolithic land-use practices involving (controlled) burning culminated in both regions at about 2550 cal. BP (c. 600 BC). However, fire-caused disappearances of entire forest communities were confined to the southern sites. Such differences in fire effects among the sites are explained by the dissimilar importance of fire as a result of different climatic conditions and cultural activities. Our results imply that the remaining (fire-sensitive) fragments of central European vegetation north of the Alps are especially endangered by increasing fire frequencies resulting from predicted climatic change.

Late Glacial and Holocene environmental history of the Pirin Mountains (SW Bulgaria): a paleolimnological study of Lake Dalgoto (2310 m)

Diatoms, Cladocera, and chironomids preserved in the sediments of Lake Dalgoto were studied to reconstruct the history of the lake ecosystem in the context of the vegetation history as represented by the pollen stratigraphy. Younger Dryas silty sediments at the base of the core are characterized by low diversity of aquatic organisms. The transition to the Holocene is indicated by a sharp change from silt to clay-gyttja. The migration and expansion of trees at lower elevations between 10200 and 8500 14C-yr BP, along with higher diversities and concentrations of aquatic organisms and the decreased proportion of north-alpine diatoms, point to rapidly rising summer temperatures. After 6500 14C-yr BP the expansion of Pinus mugo in the catchment coincides with signs of natural eutrophication as recorded by an increase of planktonic diatoms. In the late Holocene (4000–0 14C-yr BP) Pinus peuce and Abies are reduced and Picea expands. Cereal grains and disturbance indicators suggest late-Holocene human modification of the vegetation.

Middle to Late Holocene vegetation history of the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps): the role of man and fire

o reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Upper Engadine, two continuous sediment cores from Lej da Champfèr and Lej da San Murezzan (Upper Engadine Valley, southeastern Switzerland) were analysed for pollen, plant macrofossils, charcoal and kerogen. The chronologies of the cores are based on 38 radiocarbon dates. Pollen and macrofossil data suggest a rapid afforestation with Betula, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus cembra, and Larix decidua after the retreat of the glaciers from the lake catchments 11,000 cal years ago. This vegetation type persisted until ca. 7300 cal b.p. (5350 b.c.) when Picea replaced Pinus cembra. Pollen indicative of human impact suggests that in this high-mountain region of the central Alps strong anthropogenic activities began during the Early Bronze Age (3900 cal b.p., 1950 b.c.). Local human settlements led to vegetational changes, promoting the expansion of Larix decidua and Alnus viridis. In the case of Larix, continuing land use and especially grazing after fire led to the formation of Larix meadows. The expansion of Alnus viridis was directly induced by fire, as evidenced by time-series analysis. Subsequently, the process of forest conversion into open landscapes continued for millennia and reached its maximum at the end of the Middle Ages at around 500 cal b.p. (a.d. 1450).

Global diversity, population stratification and selection of human copy number variation

In order to explore the diversity and selective signatures of duplication and deletion human copy number variants (CNVs), we sequenced 236 individuals from 125 distinct human populations. We observed that duplications exhibit fundamentally different population genetic and selective signatures than deletions and are more likely to be stratified between human populations. Through reconstruction of the ancestral human genome, we identify megabases of DNA lost in different human lineages and pinpoint large duplications that introgressed from the extinct Denisova lineage now found at high frequency exclusively in Oceanic populations. We find that the proportion of CNV base pairs to single nucleotide variant base pairs is greater among non-Africans than it is among African populations, but we conclude that this difference is likely due to unique aspects of non-African population history as opposed to differences in CNV load.

Long distance dispersal shaped patterns of human genetic diversity in Eurasia

Most previous attempts at reconstructing the past history of human populations did not explicitly take geography into account, or considered very simple scenarios of migration and ignored environmental information. However, it is likely that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) affected the demography and the range of many species, including our own. Moreover, long-distance dispersal (LDD) may have been an important component of human migrations, allowing fast colonization of new territories and preserving high levels of genetic diversity. Here, we use a high-quality microsatellite dataset genotyped in 22 populations to estimate the posterior probabilities of several scenarios for the settlement of the Old World by modern humans. We considered models ranging from a simple spatial expansion to others including LDD and a LGM-induced range contraction, as well as Neolithic demographic expansions. We find that scenarios with LDD are much better supported by data than models without LDD. Nevertheless, we show evidence that LDD events to empty habitats were strongly prevented during the settlement of Eurasia. This unexpected absence of LDD ahead of the colonization wave front could have been caused by an Allee effect, either due to intrinsic causes such as an inbreeding depression built during the expansion, or to extrinsic causes such as direct competition with archaic humans. Overall, our results suggest only a relatively limited effect of the LGM-contraction on current patterns of human diversity. This is in clear contrast with the major role of LDD migrations, which have potentially contributed to the intermingled genetic structure of Eurasian populations.