Usefulness of electrocardiographic parameters for risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia

The value of electrocardiographic findings predicting adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia (ARVD) is not well known. We hypothesized that ventricular depolarization and repolarization abnormalities on the 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) predict adverse outcome in patients with ARVD. ECGs of 111 patients screened for the 2010 ARVD Task Force Criteria from 3 Swiss tertiary care centers were digitized and analyzed with a digital caliper by 2 independent observers blinded to the outcome. ECGs were compared in 2 patient groups: (1) patients with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: a composite of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or arrhythmic syncope) and (2) all remaining patients. A total of 51 patients (46%) experienced MACE during a follow-up period with median of 4.6 years (interquartile range 1.8 to 10.0). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed reduced times to MACE for patients with repolarization abnormalities according to Task Force Criteria (p = 0.009), a precordial QRS amplitude ratio (∑QRS mV V1 to V3/∑QRS mV V1 to V6) of ≤ 0.48 (p = 0.019), and QRS fragmentation (p = 0.045). In multivariable Cox regression, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39 to 6.15, p = 0.005), inferior leads T-wave inversions (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.15 to 5.18, p = 0.020), and QRS fragmentation (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.1 to 6.34, p = 0.029) remained as independent predictors of MACE. In conclusion, in this multicenter, observational, long-term study, electrocardiographic findings were useful for risk stratification in patients with ARVD, with repolarization criteria, inferior leads TWI, a precordial QRS amplitude ratio of ≤ 0.48, and QRS fragmentation constituting valuable variables to predict adverse outcome.

Atherogenic dyslipidemia and residual cardiovascular risk in statin-treated patients

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Treatment with statins reduces the rate of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients, but residual risk persists. At least part of that risk may be attributable to atherogenic dyslipidemia characterized by low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≤40 mg/dL) and high triglycerides (triglycerides≥150 mg/dL). METHODS We studied subjects with stroke or transient ischemic attack in the Prevention of Cerebrovascular and Cardiovascular Events of Ischemic Origin With Terutroban in Patients With a History of Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (PERFORM; n=19,100) and Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels (SPARCL; n=4731) trials who were treated with a statin and who had high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides measurements 3 months after randomization (n=10,498 and 2900, respectively). The primary outcome measure for this exploratory analysis was the occurrence of major cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). We also performed a time-varying analysis to account for all available high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride measurements. RESULTS A total of 10% of subjects in PERFORM and 9% in SPARCL had atherogenic dyslipidemia after ≥3 months on start statin therapy. After a follow-up of 2.3 years (PERFORM) and 4.9 years (SPARCL), a major cardiovascular event occurred in 1123 and 485 patients in the 2 trials, respectively. The risk of major cardiovascular events was higher in subjects with versus those without atherogenic dyslipidemia in both PERFORM (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.63) and SPARCL (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.85). The association was attenuated after multivariable adjustment (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.48 in PERFORM and hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.93-1.65 in SPARCL). Time-varying analysis confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS The presence of atherogenic dyslipidemia was associated with higher residual cardiovascular risk in PERFORM and SPARCL subjects with stroke or transient ischemic attack receiving statin therapy. Specific therapeutic interventions should now be trialed to address this residual risk.

Background Ionizing Radiation and the Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-Based Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Exposure to medium or high doses of ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer in children. The extent to which low dose radiation from natural sources contributes to the risk of childhood cancer remains unclear. OBJECTIVES In a nationwide census-based cohort study, we investigated whether the incidence of childhood cancer was associated with background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays. METHODS Children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Censuses in 1990 and 2000 were included. The follow-up period lasted until 2008 and incident cancer cases were identified from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. A radiation model was used to predict dose rates from terrestrial and cosmic radiation at locations of residence. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between cancer risk and dose rates and cumulative dose since birth. RESULTS Among 2,093,660 children included at census, 1,782 incident cases of cancer were identified including 530 with leukemia, 328 with lymphoma, and 423 with a tumor of the central nervous system (CNS). Hazard ratios for each mSv increase in cumulative dose of external radiation were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) for any cancer, 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for leukemia, 1.01 (0.96, 1.05) for lymphoma, and 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for a range of potential confounders had little effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggests that background radiation may contribute to the risk of cancer in children including leukemia and CNS tumors.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been associated with coronary heart disease, but the risk of stroke is unclear. Our aim is to combine the evidence on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke in prospective cohort studies. We searched Medline (OvidSP), Embase, Web-of-Science, Pubmed Publisher, Cochrane and Google Scholar from inception to November 2013 using a cohort filter, but without language restriction or other limitations. Reference lists of articles were searched. Two independent reviewers screened articles according to pre-specified criteria and selected prospective cohort studies with baseline thyroid function measurements and assessment of stroke outcomes. Data were derived using a standardized data extraction form. Quality was assessed according to previously defined quality indicators by two independent reviewers. We pooled the outcomes using a random-effects model. Of 2,274 articles screened, six cohort studies, including 11,309 participants with 665 stroke events, met the criteria. Four of six studies provided information on subclinical hyperthyroidism including a total of 6,029 participants and five on subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 10,118). The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 1.08 (95 % CI 0.87-1.34) for subclinical hypothyroidism (I (2) of 0 %) and 1.17 (95 % CI 0.54-2.56) for subclinical hyperthyroidism (I (2) of 67 %) compared to euthyroidism. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. Our systematic review provides no evidence supporting an increased risk for stroke associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. However, the available literature is insufficient and larger datasets are needed to perform extended analyses. Also, there were insufficient events to exclude clinically significant risk from subclinical hyperthyroidism, and more data are required for subgroup analyses.

Human and ecological risk assessment of a crop protection chemical: a case study with the azole fungicide epoxiconazole.

Conventional risk assessments for crop protection chemicals compare the potential for causing toxicity (hazard identification) to anticipated exposure. New regulatory approaches have been proposed that would exclude exposure assessment and just focus on hazard identification based on endocrine disruption. This review comprises a critical analysis of hazard, focusing on the relative sensitivity of endocrine and non-endocrine endpoints, using a class of crop protection chemicals, the azole fungicides. These were selected because they are widely used on important crops (e.g. grains) and thereby can contact target and non-target plants and enter the food chain of humans and wildlife. Inhibition of lanosterol 14α-demethylase (CYP51) mediates the antifungal effect. Inhibition of other CYPs, such as aromatase (CYP19), can lead to numerous toxicological effects, which are also evident from high dose human exposures to therapeutic azoles. Because of its widespread use and substantial database, epoxiconazole was selected as a representative azole fungicide. Our critical analysis concluded that anticipated human exposure to epoxiconazole would yield a margin of safety of at least three orders of magnitude for reproductive effects observed in laboratory rodent studies that are postulated to be endocrine-driven (i.e. fetal resorptions). The most sensitive ecological species is the aquatic plant Lemna (duckweed), for which the margin of safety is less protective than for human health. For humans and wildlife, endocrine disruption is not the most sensitive endpoint. It is concluded that conventional risk assessment, considering anticipated exposure levels, will be protective of both human and ecological health. Although the toxic mechanisms of other azole compounds may be similar, large differences in potency will require a case-by-case risk assessment.

Reducing fall risk in the elderly: risk factors and fall prevention, a systematic review

Falls in the elderly are a major source of injury resulting in disability and hospitalization. They have a significant impact on individual basis (loss of quality of live, nursing home admissions) and social basis (healthcare costs). Even though falls in the elderly are common there are some well studied risk factors. Special emphasis should be put on sarcopenia/frailty, polypharmacy, multimorbidity, vitamin D status and home hazards. There are several well evaluated fall prevention approaches that either target a single fall risk factor or focus on multiple risk factors. It has to be kept in mind that not all fall prevention strategies are useful for all patients as for example dietary substitution of vitamin D is only recommended in people with increased risk for a vitamin D deficiency. Home hazard reduction strategies are more effective when combined with other fall prevention approaches such as for example exercise programs. In conclusion elderly patients should routinely be screened for relevant risk factors and if need an indiviudally targeted fall prevention program compiled.

The effect of cumulating exposure to abacavir on the risk of cardiovascular disease events in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND Patients with HIV exposed to the antiretroviral drug abacavir may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is concern that this association arises because of a channelling bias. Even if exposure is a risk, it is not clear how that risk changes as exposure cumulates. METHODS We assess the effect of exposure to abacavir on the risk of CVD events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We use a new marginal structural Cox model to estimate the effect of abacavir as a flexible function of past exposures while accounting for risk factors that potentially lie on a causal pathway between exposure to abacavir and CVD. RESULTS 11,856 patients were followed for a median of 6.6 years; 365 patients had a CVD event (4.6 events per 1000 patient years). In a conventional Cox model, recent - but not cumulative - exposure to abacavir increased the risk of a CVD event. In the new marginal structural Cox model, continued exposure to abacavir during the past four years increased the risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.43-2.98). The estimated function for the effect of past exposures suggests that exposure during the past 6 to 36 months caused the greatest increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS Abacavir increases the risk of a CVD event: the effect of exposure is not immediate, rather the risk increases as exposure cumulates over the past few years. This gradual increase in risk is not consistent with a rapidly acting mechanism, such as acute inflammation.

Population mixing and the risk of childhood leukaemia in Switzerland: a census-based cohort study.

Childhood leukaemia (CL) may have an infectious cause and population mixing may therefore increase the risk of CL. We aimed to determine whether CL was associated with population mixing in Switzerland. We followed children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Cohort 1990-2008 and linked CL cases from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry to the cohort. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all CL, CL at age <5 years and acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) for three measures of population mixing (population growth, in-migration and diversity of origin), stratified by degree of urbanisation. Measures of population mixing were calculated for all municipalities for the 5-year period preceding the 1990 and 2000 censuses. Analyses were based on 2,128,012 children of whom 536 developed CL. HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile of population growth were 1.11 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.65-1.89] in rural and 0.59 (95 % CI 0.43-0.81) in urban municipalities (interaction: p = 0.271). Results were similar for ALL and for CL at age <5 years. For level of in-migration there was evidence of a negative association with ALL. HRs comparing highest with lowest quintile were 0.60 (95 % CI 0.41-0.87) in urban and 0.61 (95 % CI 0.30-1.21) in rural settings. There was little evidence of an association with diversity of origin. This nationwide cohort study of the association between CL and population growth, in-migration and diversity of origin provides little support for the population mixing hypothesis.

DNA Methylation-Guided Prediction of Clinical Failure in High-Risk Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND Prostate cancer (PCa) is a very heterogeneous disease with respect to clinical outcome. This study explored differential DNA methylation in a priori selected genes to diagnose PCa and predict clinical failure (CF) in high-risk patients. METHODS A quantitative multiplex, methylation-specific PCR assay was developed to assess promoter methylation of the APC, CCND2, GSTP1, PTGS2 and RARB genes in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples from 42 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia and radical prostatectomy specimens of patients with high-risk PCa, encompassing training and validation cohorts of 147 and 71 patients, respectively. Log-rank tests, univariate and multivariate Cox models were used to investigate the prognostic value of the DNA methylation. RESULTS Hypermethylation of APC, CCND2, GSTP1, PTGS2 and RARB was highly cancer-specific. However, only GSTP1 methylation was significantly associated with CF in both independent high-risk PCa cohorts. Importantly, trichotomization into low, moderate and high GSTP1 methylation level subgroups was highly predictive for CF. Patients with either a low or high GSTP1 methylation level, as compared to the moderate methylation groups, were at a higher risk for CF in both the training (Hazard ratio [HR], 3.65; 95% CI, 1.65 to 8.07) and validation sets (HR, 4.27; 95% CI, 1.03 to 17.72) as well as in the combined cohort (HR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.42 to 5.27) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS Classification of primary high-risk tumors into three subtypes based on DNA methylation can be combined with clinico-pathological parameters for a more informative risk-stratification of these PCa patients.

Intestinal cholesterol absorption, treatment with atorvastatin, and cardiovascular risk in hemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND Hemodialysis patients are high absorbers of intestinal cholesterol; they benefit less than other patient groups from statin therapy, which inhibits cholesterol synthesis. OBJECTIVES This study sought to investigate whether the individual cholesterol absorption rate affects atorvastatin's effectiveness to reduce cardiovascular risk in hemodialysis patients. METHODS This post-hoc analysis included 1,030 participants in the German Diabetes and Dialysis Study (4D) who were randomized to either 20 mg of atorvastatin (n = 519) or placebo (n = 511). The primary endpoint was a composite of major cardiovascular events. Secondary endpoints included all-cause mortality and all cardiac events. Tertiles of the cholestanol-to-cholesterol ratio, which is an established biomarker of cholesterol absorption, were used to identify high and low cholesterol absorbers. RESULTS A total of 454 primary endpoints occurred. On multivariate time-to-event analyses, the interaction term between tertiles and treatment with atorvastatin was significantly associated with the risk of reaching the primary endpoint. Stratified analysis by cholestanol-to-cholesterol ratio tertiles confirmed this effect modification: atorvastatin reduced the risk of reaching the primary endpoint in the first tertile (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.72; p = 0.049), but not the second (HR: 0.79; p = 0.225) or third tertiles (HR: 1.21; p = 0.287). Atorvastatin consistently significantly reduced all-cause mortality and the risk of all cardiac events in only the first tertile. CONCLUSIONS Intestinal cholesterol absorption, as reflected by cholestanol-to-cholesterol ratios, predicts the effectiveness of atorvastatin to reduce cardiovascular risk in hemodialysis patients. Those with low cholesterol absorption appear to benefit from treatment with atorvastatin, whereas those with high absorption do not benefit.

Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Risk-conscious Reconstruction in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. A Case Study of the Chakhama Valley

The Chakhama Valley, a remote area in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, was badly damaged by the 7.6-magnitude earthquake that struck India and Pakistan on 8 October 2005. More than 5% of the population lost their lives, and about 90% of the existing housing was irreparably damaged or completely destroyed. In early 2006, the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) initiated a multisector, community-driven reconstruction program in the Chakhama Valley on the premise that the scale of the disaster required a response that would address all aspects of people's lives. One important aspect covered the promotion of disaster risk management for sustainable recovery in a safe environment. Accordingly, prevailing hazards (rockfalls, landslides, and debris flow, in addition to earthquake hazards) and existing risks were thoroughly assessed, and the information was incorporated into the main planning processes. Hazard maps, detailed site investigations, and proposals for precautionary measures assisted engineers in supporting the reconstruction of private homes in safe locations to render investments disaster resilient. The information was also used for community-based land use decisions and disaster mitigation and preparedness. The work revealed three main problems: (1) thorough assessment of hazards and incorporation of this assessment into planning processes is time consuming and often little understood by the population directly affected, but it pays off in the long run; (2) relocating people out of dangerous places is a highly sensitive issue that requires the support of clear and forceful government policies; and (3) the involvement of local communities is essential for the success of mitigation and preparedness.

Transient detectable viremia and the risk of viral rebound in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND Temporary increases in plasma HIV RNA ('blips') are common in HIV patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Blips above 500 copies/mL have been associated with subsequent viral rebound. It is not clear if this relationship still holds when measurements are made using newer more sensitive assays. METHODS We selected antiretroviral-naive patients that then recorded one or more episodes of viral suppression on cART with HIV RNA measurements made using more sensitive assays (lower limit of detection below 50 copies/ml). We estimated the association in these episodes between blip magnitude and the time to viral rebound. RESULTS Four thousand ninety-four patients recorded a first episode of viral suppression on cART using more sensitive assays; 1672 patients recorded at least one subsequent suppression episode. Most suppression episodes (87 %) were recorded with TaqMan version 1 or 2 assays. Of the 2035 blips recorded, 84 %, 12 % and 4 % were of low (50-199 copies/mL), medium (200-499 copies/mL) and high (500-999 copies/mL) magnitude respectively. The risk of viral rebound increased as blip magnitude increased with hazard ratios of 1.20 (95 % CI 0.89-1.61), 1.42 (95 % CI 0.96-2.19) and 1.93 (95 % CI 1.24-3.01) for low, medium and high magnitude blips respectively; an increase of hazard ratio 1.09 (95 % CI 1.03 to 1.15) per 100 copies/mL of HIV RNA. CONCLUSIONS With the more sensitive assays now commonly used for monitoring patients, blips above 200 copies/mL are increasingly likely to lead to viral rebound and should prompt a discussion about adherence.