Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD

Atmospheric circulation modes are important concepts in understanding the variability of atmospheric dynamics. Assuming their spatial patterns to be fixed, such modes are often described by simple indices from rather short observational data sets. The increasing length of reanalysis products allows these concepts and assumptions to be scrutinised. Here we investigate the stability of spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere teleconnections by using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as well as several control and transient millennium-scale simulations with coupled models. The observed and simulated centre of action of the two major teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and to some extent the Pacific North American (PNA), are not stable in time. The currently observed dipole pattern of the NAO, its centre of action over Iceland and the Azores, split into a north–south dipole pattern in the western Atlantic with a wave train pattern in the eastern part, connecting the British Isles with West Greenland and the eastern Mediterranean during the period 1940–1969 AD. The PNA centres of action over Canada are shifted southwards and over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1915–1944 AD. The analysis further shows that shifts in the centres of action of either teleconnection pattern are not related to changes in the external forcing applied in transient simulations of the last millennium. Such shifts in their centres of action are accompanied by changes in the relation of local precipitation and temperature with the overlying atmospheric mode. These findings further undermine the assumption of stationarity between local climate/proxy variability and large-scale dynamics inherent when using proxy-based reconstructions of atmospheric modes, and call for a more robust understanding of atmospheric variability on decadal timescales.

Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands

Rapid changes in atmospheric methane (CH4), temperature and precipitation are documented by Greenland ice core data both for glacial times (the so called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events) as well as for a cooling event in the early Holocene (the 8.2 kyr event). The onsets of D-O warm events are paralleled by abrupt increases in CH4 by up to 250 ppb in a few decades. Vice versa, the 8.2 kyr event is accompanied by an intermittent decrease in CH4 of about 80 ppb over 150 yr. The abrupt CH4 changes are thought to mainly originate from source emission variations in tropical and boreal wet ecosystems, but complex process oriented bottom-up model estimates of the changes in these ecosystems during rapid climate changes are still missing. Here we present simulations of CH4 emissions from northern peatlands with the LPJ-Bern dynamic global vegetation model. The model represents CH4 production and oxidation in soils and transport by ebullition, through plant aerenchyma, and by diffusion. Parameters are tuned to represent site emission data as well as inversion-based estimates of northern wetland emissions. The model is forced with climate input data from freshwater hosing experiments using the NCAR CSM1.4 climate model to simulate an abrupt cooling event. A concentration reduction of ~10 ppb is simulated per degree K change of mean northern hemispheric surface temperature in peatlands. Peatland emissions are equally sensitive to both changes in temperature and in precipitation. If simulated changes are taken as an analogy to the 8.2 kyr event, boreal peatland emissions alone could only explain 23 of the 80 ppb decline in atmospheric methane concentration. This points to a significant contribution to source changes from low latitude and tropical wetlands to this event.

The response of atmospheric nitrous oxide to climate variations during the last glacial period

Detailed insight into natural variations of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) in response to changes in the Earth's climate system is provided by new measurements along the ice core of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP). The presented record reaches from the early Holocene back into the previous interglacial with a mean time resolution of about 75 years. Between 11 and 120 kyr BP, atmospheric N2O concentrations react substantially to the last glacial-interglacial transition (Termination 1) and millennial time scale climate variations of the last glacial period. For long-lasting Dansgaard/Oeschger (DO) events, the N2O increase precedes Greenland temperature change by several hundred years with an increase rate of about 0.8-1.3 ppbv/century, which accelerates to about 3.8-10.7 ppbv/century at the time of the rapid warming in Greenland. Within each bundle of DO events, the new record further reveals particularly low N2O concentrations at the approximate time of Heinrich events. This suggests that the response of marine and/or terrestrial N2O emissions on a global scale are different for stadials with and without Heinrich events.

Continuous Flow Analysis of labile iron in ice-cores

The important active and passive role of mineral dust aerosol in the climate and the global carbon cycle over the last glacial/interglacial cycles has been recognized. However, little data on the most important aeolian dust-derived biological micronutrient, iron (Fe), has so far been available from ice-cores from Greenland or Antarctica. Furthermore, Fe deposition reconstructions derived from the palaeoproxies particulate dust and calcium differ significantly from the Fe flux data available. The ability to measure high temporal resolution Fe data in polar ice-cores is crucial for the study of the timing and magnitude of relationships between geochemical events and biological responses in the open ocean. This work adapts an existing flow injection analysis (FIA) methodology for low-level trace Fe determinations with an existing glaciochemical analysis system, continuous flow analysis (CFA) of ice-cores. Fe-induced oxidation of N,N′-dimethyl-p-pheylenediamine (DPD) is used to quantify the biologically more important and easily leachable Fe fraction released in a controlled digestion step at pH ∼1.0. The developed method was successfully applied to the determination of labile Fe in ice-core samples collected from the Antarctic Byrd ice-core and the Greenland Ice-Core Project (GRIP) ice-core.

High-resolution glacial and deglacial record of atmospheric methane by continuous-flow and laser spectrometer analysis along the NEEM ice core

The Greenland NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) operation in 2010 provided the first opportunity to combine trace-gas measurements by laser spectroscopic instruments and continuous-flow analysis along a freshly drilled ice core in a field-based setting. We present the resulting atmospheric methane (CH4) record covering the time period from 107.7 to 9.5 ka b2k (thousand years before 2000 AD). Companion discrete CH4 measurements are required to transfer the laser spectroscopic data from a relative to an absolute scale. However, even on a relative scale, the high-resolution CH4 data set significantly improves our knowledge of past atmospheric methane concentration changes. New significant sub-millennial-scale features appear during interstadials and stadials, generally associated with similar changes in water isotopic ratios of the ice, a proxy for local temperature. In addition to the midpoint of Dansgaard–Oeschger (D/O) CH4 transitions usually used for cross-dating, sharp definition of the start and end of these events brings precise depth markers (with ±20 cm uncertainty) for further cross-dating with other palaeo- or ice core records, e.g. speleothems. The method also provides an estimate of CH4 rates of change. The onsets of D/O events in the methane signal show a more rapid rate of change than their endings. The rate of CH4 increase associated with the onsets of D/O events progressively declines from 1.7 to 0.6 ppbv yr−1 in the course of marine isotope stage 3. The largest observed rate of increase takes place at the onset of D/O event #21 and reaches 2.5 ppbv yr−1.

From Broadstone to Zackenberg

Ecological networks are typically complex constructions of species and their interactions. During the last decade, the study of networks has moved from static to dynamic analyses, and has attained a deeper insight into their internal structure, heterogeneity, and temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we review, discuss and suggest research lines in the study of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of networks and their hierarchical nature. We use case study data from two well-characterized model systems (the food web in Broadstone Stream in England and the pollination network at Zackenberg in Greenland), which are complemented with additional information from other studies. We focus upon eight topics: temporal dynamic space-for-time substitutions linkage constraints habitat borders network modularity individual-based networks invasions of networks and super networks that integrate different network types. Few studies have explicitly examined temporal change in networks, and we present examples that span from daily to decadal change: a common pattern that we see is a stable core surrounded by a group of dynamic, peripheral species, which, in pollinator networks enter the web via preferential linkage to the most generalist species. To some extent, temporal and spatial scales are interchangeable (i.e. networks exhibit ‘ergodicity’) and we explore how space-for-time substitutions can be used in the study of networks. Network structure is commonly constrained by phenological uncoupling (a temporal phenomenon), abundance, body size and population structure. Some potential links are never observed, that is they are ‘forbidden’ (fully constrained) or ‘missing’ (a sampling effect), and their absence can be just as ecologically significant as their presence. Spatial habitat borders can add heterogeneity to network structure, but their importance has rarely been studied: we explore how habitat generalization can be related to other resource dimensions. Many networks are hierarchically structured, with modules forming the basic building blocks, which can result in self-similarity. Scaling down from networks of species reveals another, finer-grained level of individual-based organization, the ecological consequences of which have yet to be fully explored. The few studies of individual-based ecological networks that are available suggest the potential for large intraspecific variance and, in the case of food webs, strong size-structuring. However, such data are still scarce and more studies are required to link individual-level and species-level networks. Invasions by alien species can be tracked by following the topological ‘career’ of the invader as it establishes itself within a network, with potentially important implications for conservation biology. Finally, by scaling up to a higher level of organization, it is possible to combine different network types (e.g. food webs and mutualistic networks) to form super networks, and this new approach has yet to be integrated into mainstream ecological research. We conclude by listing a set of research topics that we see as emerging candidates for ecological network studies in the near future.

Continuous Flow Analysis Method for Determination of Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus in Ice Cores

Phosphorus (P) is an essential macronutrient for all living organisms. Phosphorus is often present in nature as the soluble phosphate ion PO43– and has biological, terrestrial, and marine emission sources. Thus PO43– detected in ice cores has the potential to be an important tracer for biological activity in the past. In this study a continuous and highly sensitive absorption method for detection of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) in ice cores has been developed using a molybdate reagent and a 2-m liquid waveguide capillary cell (LWCC). DRP is the soluble form of the nutrient phosphorus, which reacts with molybdate. The method was optimized to meet the low concentrations of DRP in Greenland ice, with a depth resolution of approximately 2 cm and an analytical uncertainty of 1.1 nM (0.1 ppb) PO43–. The method has been applied to segments of a shallow firn core from Northeast Greenland, indicating a mean concentration level of 2.74 nM (0.26 ppb) PO43– for the period 1930–2005 with a standard deviation of 1.37 nM (0.13 ppb) PO43– and values reaching as high as 10.52 nM (1 ppb) PO43–. Similar levels were detected for the period 1771–1823. Based on impurity abundances, dust and biogenic particles were found to be the most likely sources of DRP deposited in Northeast Greenland.

Mid- to late Holocene Indian Ocean Monsoon variability recorded in four speleothems from Socotra Island, Yemen

Four stalagmites covering the last 7.0 ka were sampled on Socotra, an island in the northern Indian Ocean to investigate the evolution of the northeast Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) since the mid Holocene. On Socotra, rain is delivered at the start of the southwest IOM in May–June and at the start of the northeast IOM from September to December. The Haggeher Mountains act as a barrier forcing precipitation brought by the northeast winds to fall preferentially on the eastern side of the island, where the studied caves are located. δ18O and δ13C and Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca signals in the stalagmites reflect precipitation amounts brought by the northeast winds. For stalagmite STM6, this amount effect is amplified by kinetic effects during calcite deposition. Combined interpretation of the stalagmites' signals suggest a weakening of the northeast precipitation between 6.0 and 3.8 ka. After 3.8 ka precipitation intensities remain constant with two superimposed drier periods, between 0 and 0.6 ka and from 2.2 to 3.8 ka. No link can be established with Greenland ice cores and with the summer IOM variability. In contrast to the stable northeast rainy season suggested by the records in this study, speleothem records from western Socotra indicate a wettening of the southwest rainy season on Socotra after 4.4 ka. The local wettening of western Socotra could relate to a more southerly path (more over the Indian Ocean) taken by the southwest winds. Stalagmite STM5, sampled at the fringe between both rain areas displays intermediate δ18O values. After 6.2 ka, similar precipitation changes are seen between eastern Socotra and northern Oman indicating that both regions are affected similarly by the monsoon. Different palaeoclimatologic records from the Arabian Peninsula currently located outside the ITCZ migration pathway display an abrupt drying around 6 ka due to their disconnection from the southwest rain influence. Records that are nowadays still receiving rain by the southwest winds, suggest a more gradual drying reflecting the weakening of the southwest monsoon.

Tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood

Arctic environments, where surface temperatures increase and sea ice cover and permafrost depth decrease, are very sensitive to even slight climatic variations. Placing recent environmental change of the high-northern latitudes in a long-term context is, however, complicated by too short meteorological observations and too few proxy records. Driftwood may represent a unique cross-disciplinary archive at the interface of marine and terrestrial processes. Here, we introduce 1445 driftwood remains from coastal East Greenland and Svalbard. Macroscopy and microscopy were applied for wood anatomical classification; a multi-species subset was used for detecting fungi; and information on boreal vegetation patterns, circumpolar river systems, and ocean current dynamics was reviewed and evaluated. Four conifer (Pinus, Larix, Picea, and Abies) and three deciduous (Populus, Salix, and Betula) genera were differentiated. Species-specific identification also separated Pinus sylvestris and Pinus sibirica, which account for ~40% of all driftwood and predominantly originate from western and central Siberia. Larch and spruce from Siberia or North America represents ~26% and ~18% of all materials, respectively. Fungal colonization caused different levels of driftwood staining and/or decay. Our results demonstrate the importance of combining wood anatomical knowledge with insight on boreal forest composition for successfully tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood. To ultimately reconstruct spatiotemporal variations in ocean currents, and to better quantify postglacial uplift rates, we recommend consideration of dendrochronologically dated material from many more circumpolar sites.

A technique for continuous detection of drill liquid in ice cores

When drilling ice cores deeper than ∼100 m, drill liquid is required to maintain ice-core quality and to limit borehole closure. Due to high-pressure air bubbles in the ice, the ice core can crack during drilling and core retrieval, typically at 600–1200 m depth in Greenland. Ice from this 'brittle zone' can be contaminated by drill liquid as it seeps through cracks into the core. Continuous flow analysis (CFA) systems are routinely used to analyse ice for chemical impurities, so the detection of drill liquid is important for validating accurate measurements and avoiding potential instrument damage. An optical detector was constructed to identify drill liquid in CFA tubing by ultraviolet absorption spectroscopy at a wavelength of 290 nm. The set-up was successfully field-tested in the frame of the NEEM ice-core drilling project in Greenland. A total of 27 cases of drill liquid contamination were identified during the analysis of 175 m of brittle zone ice. The analyses most strongly affected by drill liquid contamination include insoluble dust particles, electrolytic conductivity, ammonium, hydrogen peroxide and sulphate. This method may also be applied to other types of drill liquid used at other drill sites.

Chronostratigraphy of the 600,000 year old continental record of Lake Van

Lake Van sediment cores from the Ahlat Ridge and Northern Basin drill sites of the ICDP project PALEOVAN contain a wealth of information about past environmental processes. The sedimentary sequence was dated using climatostratigraphic alignment, varve chronology, tephrostratigraphy, argon-argon single-crystal dating, radiocarbon dating, magnetostratigraphy, and cosmogenic nuclides. Based on the lithostratigraphic framework, the different age constraints are compiled and a robust and precise chronology of the 600,000 year-old Lake Van record is constructed. Proxy records of total organic carbon content and sediment color, together with the calcium/potassium-ratios and arboreal pollen percentages of the 174-meter-long Ahlat Ridge record, mimic the Greenland isotope stratotype (NGRIP). Therefore, the proxy records are systematically aligned to the onsets of interstadials reflected in the NGRIP or synthesized Greenland ice-core stratigraphy. The chronology is constructed using 27 age control points derived from visual synchronization with the GICC05 timescale, an absolutely-dated speleothem record (e.g., Hulu, Sanbao, Linzhu cave) and the Epica Dome C timescale. In addition, the uppermost part of the sequence is complemented with four ages from Holocene varve chronology and two calibrated radiocarbon ages. Furthermore, nine argon-argon ages and a comparison of the relative paleointensity record of the magnetic field with reference curve PISO-1500 confirm the accuracy of the age model. Also the identification of the Laschamp event via measurements of 10Be in the sediment confirms the presented age model. The chronology of the Ahlat Ridge record is transferred to the 79-meter-long event-corrected composite record from the Northern Basin and supplemented by additional radiocarbon dating on organic marco-remains. The basal age of the Northern Basin record is estimated at ~90 ka. The variations of the time series of total organic carbon content, the Ca/K ratio, and the arboreal pollen percentages illustrate that the presented chronology and paleoclimate data are suited for reconstructions and modeling of the Quaternary and Pleistocene climate evolution in the Near East at millennial timescales. Furthermore, the chronology of the last 250 kyr can be used to test other dating techniques.

Responses to rapid warming at Termination 1a at Gerzensee (Central Europe): Primary succession, albedo, soils, lake development, and ecological interactions

The transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling around 14,685 cal yr BP was a period of extremely rapid climatic warming. From a single core of lake marl taken at Gerzensee (Switzerland) we studied the transition in stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon on bulk sediment and charophyte remains, as well as on monospecific samples of ostracods, after Pisidium a; in addition pollen, chironomids, and Cladocera were analyzed. The δ18O record serves as an estimate of mean air temperature, and by correlation to the one from NGRIP in Greenland it provides a timescale. The timing of responses: The statistically significant zone boundaries of the biostratigraphies are telescoped at the rapid increase of about 3‰ in δ18O at the onset of Bølling. Biotic responses may have occurred within sampling resolution (8 to 16 years), although younger zone boundaries are less synchronous. Gradual and longer-lasting responses include complex processes such as primary or secular succession. During the late-glacial interstadial of Bølling and Allerød, two stronger and two weaker cool phases were found. Biological processes involved in the responses occurred on levels of individuals (e.g. pollen productivity), of populations (increases or decreases, immigration, or extinction), and on the ecosystem level (species interactions such as facilitation or competition). Abiotic and biotic interactions include pedogenesis, nitrogen-fixation, nutrient cycling, catchment hydrology, water chemistry of the lake and albedo (controlled by the transition from tundra to forest). For the Swiss Plateau this major change in vegetation induced a change in the mammal fauna, which in turn led to changes in the tool-making by Paleolithic people.

NGRIP CH4 concentration from 120 to 10 kyr before present and its relation to a δ15N temperature reconstruction from the same ice core

During the last glacial cycle, Greenland temperature showed many rapid temperature variations, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. The past atmospheric methane concentration closely followed these temperature variations, which implies that the warmings recorded in Greenland were probably hemispheric in extent. Here we substantially extend and complete the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) methane record from the Preboreal Holocene (PB) back to the end of the last interglacial period with a mean time resolution of 54 yr. We relate the amplitudes of the methane increases associated with DO events to the amplitudes of the local Greenland NGRIP temperature increases derived from stable nitrogen isotope (δ15N) measurements, which have been performed along the same ice core (Kindler et al., 2014). We find the ratio to oscillate between 5 parts per billion (ppb) per °C and 18 ppb °C−1 with the approximate frequency of the precessional cycle. A remarkably high ratio of 25.5 ppb °C−1 is reached during the transition from the Younger Dryas (YD) to the PB. Analysis of the timing of the fast methane and temperature increases reveals significant lags of the methane increases relative to NGRIP temperature for DO events 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 19, and 20. These events generally have small methane increase rates and we hypothesize that the lag is caused by pronounced northward displacement of the source regions from stadial to interstadial. We further show that the relative interpolar concentration difference (rIPD) of methane is about 4.5% for the stadials between DO events 18 and 20, which is in the same order as in the stadials before and after DO event 2 around the Last Glacial Maximum. The rIPD of methane remains relatively stable throughout the full last glacial, with a tendency for elevated values during interstadial compared to stadial periods.

Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core

In order to reconstruct the temperature of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) site, new measurements of δ15N have been performed covering the time period from the beginning of the Holocene to Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) event 8. Together with previously measured and mostly published δ15N data, we present for the first time a NGRIP temperature reconstruction for the whole last glacial period from 10 to 120 kyr b2k (thousand years before 2000 AD) including every DO event based on δ15N isotope measurements combined with a firn densification and heat diffusion model. The detected temperature rises at the onset of DO events range from 5 °C (DO 25) up to 16.5 °C (DO 11) with an uncertainty of ±3 °C. To bring measured and modelled data into agreement, we had to reduce the accumulation rate given by the NGRIP ss09sea06bm timescale in some periods by 30 to 35%, especially during the last glacial maximum. A comparison between reconstructed temperature and δ18Oice data confirms that the isotopic composition of the stadial was strongly influenced by seasonality. We evidence an anticorrelation between the variations of the δ18Oice sensitivity to temperature (referred to as α) and obliquity in agreement with a simple Rayleigh distillation model. Finally, we suggest that α might be influenced by the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet volume.