Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

In this study, we use IP and alkenone biomarker proxies to document the subdecadal variations of sea ice and sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic induced by the decadally paced explosive tropical volcanic eruptions of the second half of the thirteenth century. The short- and long-term evolutions of both variables were investigated by cross analysis with a simulation of the IPSL-CM5A LR model. Our results show short-term ocean cooling and sea ice expansion in response to each volcanic eruption. They also highlight that the long response time of the ocean leads to cumulative surface cooling and subsurface heat buildup due to sea ice capping. As volcanic forcing relaxes, the surface ocean rapidly warms, likely amplified by subsurface heat, and remains almost ice free for several decades

Meta-Analysis of Long-Term Land Management Effect on Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in Ethiopia

The role of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in mitigating climate change, indicating soil quality and ecosystem function has created research interested to know the nature of SOC at landscape level. The objective of this study was to examine variation and distribution of SOC in a long-term land management at a watershed and plot level. This study was based on meta-analysis of three case studies and 128 surface soil samples from Ethiopia. Three sites (Gununo, Anjeni and Maybar) were compared after considering two Land Management Categories (LMC) and three types of land uses (LUT) in quasi-experimental design. Shapiro-Wilk tests showed non-normal distribution (p = 0.002, a = 0.05) of the data. SOC median value showed the effect of long-term land management with values of 2.29 and 2.38 g kg-1 for less and better-managed watersheds, respectively. SOC values were 1.7, 2.8 and 2.6 g kg-1 for Crop (CLU), Grass (GLU) and Forest Land Use (FLU), respectively. The rank order for SOC variability was FLU>GLU>CLU. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test showed a significant difference in the medians and distribution of SOC among the LUT, between soil profiles (p<0.05, confidence interval 95%, a = 0.05) while it is not significant (p>0.05) for LMC. The mean and sum rank of Mann Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis test also showed the difference at watershed and plot level. Using SOC as a predictor, cross-validated correct classification with discriminant analysis showed 46 and 49% for LUT and LMC, respectively. The study showed how to categorize landscapes using SOC with respect to land management for decision-makers.

The structural substrate of brain function: analysis of brain structural networks based on diffusion-weighted imaging

The brain is a complex neural network with a hierarchical organization and the mapping of its elements and connections is an important step towards the understanding of its function. Recent developments in diffusion-weighted imaging have provided the opportunity to reconstruct the whole-brain structural network in-vivo at a large scale level and to study the brain structural substrate in a framework that is close to the current understanding of brain function. However, methods to construct the connectome are still under development and they should be carefully evaluated. To this end, the first two studies included in my thesis aimed at improving the analytical tools specific to the methodology of brain structural networks. The first of these papers assessed the repeatability of the most common global and local network metrics used in literature to characterize the connectome, while in the second paper the validity of further metrics based on the concept of communicability was evaluated. Communicability is a broader measure of connectivity which accounts also for parallel and indirect connections. These additional paths may be important for reorganizational mechanisms in the presence of lesions as well as to enhance integration in the network. These studies showed good to excellent repeatability of global network metrics when the same methodological pipeline was applied, but more variability was detected when considering local network metrics or when using different thresholding strategies. In addition, communicability metrics have been found to add some insight into the integration properties of the network by detecting subsets of nodes that were highly interconnected or vulnerable to lesions. The other two studies used methods based on diffusion-weighted imaging to obtain knowledge concerning the relationship between functional and structural connectivity and about the etiology of schizophrenia. The third study integrated functional oscillations measured using electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) as well as diffusion-weighted imaging data. The multimodal approach that was applied revealed a positive relationship between individual fluctuations of the EEG alpha-frequency and diffusion properties of specific connections of two resting-state networks. Finally, in the fourth study diffusion-weighted imaging was used to probe for a relationship between the underlying white matter tissue structure and season of birth in schizophrenia patients. The results are in line with the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of early pathological mechanisms as the origin of schizophrenia. The different analytical approaches selected in these studies also provide arguments for discussion of the current limitations in the analysis of brain structural networks. To sum up, the first studies presented in this thesis illustrated the potential of brain structural network analysis to provide useful information on features of brain functional segregation and integration using reliable network metrics. In the other two studies alternative approaches were presented. The common discussion of the four studies enabled us to highlight the benefits and possibilities for the analysis of the connectome as well as some current limitations.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of upper abdominal organs: field strength and intervendor variability of apparent diffusion coefficients

PURPOSE To determine the variability of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in various anatomic regions in the upper abdomen measured with magnetic resonance (MR) systems from different vendors and with different field strengths. MATERIALS AND METHODS Ten healthy men (mean age, 36.6 years ± 7.7 [standard deviation]) gave written informed consent to participate in this prospective ethics committee-approved study. Diffusion-weighted (DW) MR imaging was performed in each subject with 1.5- and 3.0-T MR systems from each of three vendors at two institutions. Two readers independently measured ADC values in seven upper abdominal regions (left and right liver lobe, gallbladder, pancreas, spleen, and renal cortex and medulla). ADC values were tested for interobserver differences, as well as for differences related to field strength and vendor, with repeated-measures analysis of variance; coefficients of variation (CVs) and variance components were calculated. RESULTS Interreader agreement was excellent (intraclass coefficient, 0.876). ADC values were (77.5-88.8) ×10(-5) mm(2)/sec in the spleen and (250.6-278.5) ×10(-5) mm(2)/sec in the gallbladder. There were no significant differences between ADC values measured at 1.5 T and those measured at 3.0 T in any anatomic region (P >.10 for all). In two of seven regions at 1.5 T (left and right liver lobes, P < .023) and in four of seven regions at 3.0 T (left liver lobe, pancreas, and renal cortex and medulla, P < .008), intervendor differences were significant. CVs ranged from 7.0% to 27.1% depending on the anatomic location. CONCLUSION Despite significant intervendor differences in ADC values of various anatomic regions of the upper abdomen, ADC values of the gallbladder, pancreas, spleen, and kidney may be comparable between MR systems from different vendors and between different field strengths.

Separation of the Ribbon from globally distributed energetic neutral Atom Flux using the first five Years of Ibex Observations

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) observes the IBEX ribbon, which stretches across much of the sky observed in energetic neutral atoms (ENAs). The ribbon covers a narrow (~20°-50°) region that is believed to be roughly perpendicular to the interstellar magnetic field. Superimposed on the IBEX ribbon is the globally distributed flux that is controlled by the processes and properties of the heliosheath. This is a second study that utilizes a previously developed technique to separate ENA emissions in the ribbon from the globally distributed flux. A transparency mask is applied over the ribbon and regions of high emissions. We then solve for the globally distributed flux using an interpolation scheme. Previously, ribbon separation techniques were applied to the first year of IBEX-Hi data at and above 0.71 keV. Here we extend the separation analysis down to 0.2 keV and to five years of IBEX data enabling first maps of the ribbon and the globally distributed flux across the full sky of ENA emissions. Our analysis shows the broadening of the ribbon peak at energies below 0.71 keV and demonstrates the apparent deformation of the ribbon in the nose and heliotail. We show global asymmetries of the heliosheath, including both deflection of the heliotail and differing widths of the lobes, in context of the direction, draping, and compression of the heliospheric magnetic field. We discuss implications of the ribbon maps for the wide array of concepts that attempt to explain the ribbon's origin. Thus, we present the five-year separation of the IBEX ribbon from the globally distributed flux in preparation for a formal IBEX data release of ribbon and globally distributed flux maps to the heliophysics community.

Volumetric analysis of lung nodules in computed tomography (CT): comparison of two different segmentation algorithm softwares and two different reconstruction filters on automated volume calculation.

BACKGROUND A precise detection of volume change allows for better estimating the biological behavior of the lung nodules. Postprocessing tools with automated detection, segmentation, and volumetric analysis of lung nodules may expedite radiological processes and give additional confidence to the radiologists. PURPOSE To compare two different postprocessing software algorithms (LMS Lung, Median Technologies; LungCARE®, Siemens) in CT volumetric measurement and to analyze the effect of soft (B30) and hard reconstruction filter (B70) on automated volume measurement. MATERIAL AND METHODS Between January 2010 and April 2010, 45 patients with a total of 113 pulmonary nodules were included. The CT exam was performed on a 64-row multidetector CT scanner (Somatom Sensation, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany) with the following parameters: collimation, 24x1.2 mm; pitch, 1.15; voltage, 120 kVp; reference tube current-time, 100 mAs. Automated volumetric measurement of each lung nodule was performed with the two different postprocessing algorithms based on two reconstruction filters (B30 and B70). The average relative volume measurement difference (VME%) and the limits of agreement between two methods were used for comparison. RESULTS At soft reconstruction filters the LMS system produced mean nodule volumes that were 34.1% (P < 0.0001) larger than those by LungCARE® system. The VME% was 42.2% with a limit of agreement between -53.9% and 138.4%.The volume measurement with soft filters (B30) was significantly larger than with hard filters (B70); 11.2% for LMS and 1.6% for LungCARE®, respectively (both with P < 0.05). LMS measured greater volumes with both filters, 13.6% for soft and 3.8% for hard filters, respectively (P < 0.01 and P > 0.05). CONCLUSION There is a substantial inter-software (LMS/LungCARE®) as well as intra-software variability (B30/B70) in lung nodule volume measurement; therefore, it is mandatory to use the same equipment with the same reconstruction filter for the follow-up of lung nodule volume.

Quantitative analysis of imprint shape and its relation to mechanical properties measured by microindentation in bone

Microindentation in bone is a micromechanical testing technique routinely used to extract material properties related to bone quality. As the analysis of microindentation data is based on assumptions about the contact between sample and surface, the aim of this study was to quantify the topological variability of indentations in bone and examine its relationship with mechanical properties. Indentations were performed in dry human and ovine bone in axial and transverse directions and their topology was measured by atomic force microscopy. Statistical shape modeling of the residual imprint allowed to define a mean shape and to describe the variability in terms of 21 principal components related to imprint depth, surface curvature and roughness. The indentation profile of bone was found to be highly consistent and free of any pile up while differing mostly by depth between species and direction. A few of the topological parameters, in particular depth, showed significant but rather weak and inconsistent correlations to variations in mechanical properties. The mechanical response of bone as well as the residual imprint shape was highly consistent within each category. We could thus verify that bone is rather homogeneous in its micromechanical properties and that indentation results are not strongly influenced by small deviations from an ideally flat surface.

Reconciling two alternative mechanisms behind bi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic

Understanding the preferential timescales of variability in the North Atlantic, usually associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), is essential for the prospects for decadal prediction. However, the wide variety of mechanisms proposed from the analysis of climate simulations, potentially dependent on the models themselves, has stimulated the debate of which processes take place in reality. One mechanism receiving increasing attention, identified both in idealized models and observations, is a westward propagation of subsurface buoyancy anomalies that impact the AMOC through a basin-scale intensification of the zonal density gradient, enhancing the northward transport via thermal wind balance. In this study, we revisit a control simulation from the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model 5A (IPSL-CM5A), characterized by a strong AMOC periodicity at 20 years, previously explained by an upper ocean–atmosphere–sea ice coupled mode driving convection activity south of Iceland. Our study shows that this mechanism interacts constructively with the basin-wide propagation in the subsurface. This constructive feedback may explain why bi-decadal variability is so intense in this coupled model as compared to others.

Analysis of Phenotypic Variation in Childhood Wheezing Disorders

Recurrent wheezing or asthma is a common problem in children that has increased considerably in prevalence in the past few decades. The causes and underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and it is thought that a numb er of distinct diseases causing similar symptoms are involved. Due to the lack of a biologically founded classification system, children are classified according to their observed disease related features (symptoms, signs, measurements) into phenotypes. The objectives of this PhD project were a) to develop tools for analysing phenotypic variation of a disease, and b) to examine phenotypic variability of wheezing among children by applying these tools to existing epidemiological data. A combination of graphical methods (multivariate co rrespondence analysis) and statistical models (latent variables models) was used. In a first phase, a model for discrete variability (latent class model) was applied to data on symptoms and measurements from an epidemiological study to identify distinct phenotypes of wheezing. In a second phase, the modelling framework was expanded to include continuous variability (e.g. along a severity gradient) and combinations of discrete and continuo us variability (factor models and factor mixture models). The third phase focused on validating the methods using simulation studies. The main body of this thesis consists of 5 articles (3 published, 1 submitted and 1 to be submitted) including applications, methodological contributions and a review. The main findings and contributions were: 1) The application of a latent class model to epidemiological data (symptoms and physiological measurements) yielded plausible pheno types of wheezing with distinguishing characteristics that have previously been used as phenotype defining characteristics. 2) A method was proposed for including responses to conditional questions (e.g. questions on severity or triggers of wheezing are asked only to children with wheeze) in multivariate modelling.ii 3) A panel of clinicians was set up to agree on a plausible model for wheezing diseases. The model can be used to generate datasets for testing the modelling approach. 4) A critical review of methods for defining and validating phenotypes of wheeze in children was conducted. 5) The simulation studies showed that a parsimonious parameterisation of the models is required to identify the true underlying structure of the data. The developed approach can deal with some challenges of real-life cohort data such as variables of mixed mode (continuous and categorical), missing data and conditional questions. If carefully applied, the approach can be used to identify whether the underlying phenotypic variation is discrete (classes), continuous (factors) or a combination of these. These methods could help improve precision of research into causes and mechanisms and contribute to the development of a new classification of wheezing disorders in children and other diseases which are difficult to classify.

Flux control of sulphate assimilation in Arabidopsis thaliana : adenosine 5′-phosphosulphate reductase is more susceptible than ATP sulphurylase to negative control by thiols

The effect of externally applied l-cysteine and glutathione (GSH) on ATP sulphurylase and adenosine 5′-phosphosulphate reductase (APR), two key enzymes of assimilatory sulphate reduction, was examined in Arabidopsis thaliana root cultures. Addition of increasing l-cysteine to the nutrient solution increased internal cysteine, γ-glutamylcysteine and GSH concentrations, and decreased APR mRNA, protein and extractable activity. An effect on APR could already be detected at 0.2 mm l-cysteine, whereas ATP sulphurylase was significantly affected only at 2 mm l-cysteine. APR mRNA, protein and activity were also decreased by GSH at 0.2 mm and higher concentrations. In the presence of l-buthionine-S, R-sulphoximine (BSO), an inhibitor of GSH synthesis, 0.2 mm l-cysteine had no effect on APR activity, indicating that GSH formed from cysteine was the regulating substance. Simultaneous addition of BSO and 0.5 mm GSH to the culture medium decreased APR mRNA, enzyme protein and activity. ATP sulphurylase activity was not affected by this treatment. Tracer experiments using 35SO42– in the presence of 0.5 mm l-cysteine or GSH showed that both thiols decreased sulphate uptake, APR activity and the flux of label into cysteine, GSH and protein, but had no effect on the activity of all other enzymes of assimilatory sulphate reduction and serine acetyltransferase. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that thiols regulate the flux through sulphate assimilation at the uptake and the APR step. Analysis of radioactive labelling indicates that the flux control coefficient of APR is more than 0.5 for the intracellular pathway of sulphate assimilation. This analysis also shows that the uptake of external sulphate is inhibited by GSH to a greater extent than the flux through the pathway, and that the flux control coefficient of APR for the pathway, including the transport step, is proportionately less, with a significant share of the control exerted by the transport step.

Evidence for cooler European summers during periods of changing meltwater flux to the North Atlantic

We analyzed fossil chironomids (nonbiting midges) and pollen in two lake-sediment records to reconstruct and quantify Holocene summer-temperature fluctuations in the European Alps. Chironomid and pollen records indicate five centennial-scale cooling episodes during the early- and mid-Holocene. The strongest temperature declines of ≈1°C are inferred at ≈10,700–10,500 and 8,200–7,600 calibrated 14C years B.P., whereas other temperature fluctuations are of smaller amplitude. Two forcing mechanisms have been presented recently to explain centennial-scale climate variability in Europe during the early- and mid-Holocene, both involving changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In the first mechanism, changes in meltwater flux from the North American continent to the North Atlantic are responsible for changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, thereby affecting circum-Atlantic climate. In the second mechanism, solar variability is the cause of Holocene climatic fluctuations, possibly triggering changes in Atlantic thermohaline overturning. Within their dating uncertainty, the two major cooling periods in the European Alps are coeval with substantial changes in the routing of North American freshwater runoff to the North Atlantic, whereas quantitatively, our climatic reconstructions show a poor agreement with available records of past solar activity. Thus, our results suggest that, during the early- and mid-Holocene, freshwater-induced Atlantic circulation changes had stronger influence on Alpine summer temperatures than solar variability and that Holocene thermohaline circulation reductions have led to summer-temperature declines of up to 1°C in central Europe.

Time variability and heterogeneity in the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Comets contain the best-preserved material from the beginning of our planetary system. Their nuclei and comae composition reveal clues about physical and chemical conditions during the early solar system when comets formed. ROSINA (Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis) onboard the Rosetta spacecraft has measured the coma composition of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko with well-sampled time resolution per rotation. Measurements were made over many comet rotation periods and a wide range of latitudes. These measurements show large fluctuations in composition in a heterogeneous coma that has diurnal and possibly seasonal variations in the major outgassing species: water, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. These results indicate a complex coma-nucleus relationship where seasonal variations may be driven by temperature differences just below the comet surface.