Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Application of a computational model for complex fluvial ecosystems: The population dynamics of zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha as a case study

The potential and adaptive flexibility of population dynamic P-systems (PDP) to study population dynamics suggests that they may be suitable for modelling complex fluvial ecosystems, characterized by a composition of dynamic habitats with many variables that interact simultaneously. Using as a model a reservoir occupied by the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we designed a computational model based on P systems to study the population dynamics of larvae, in order to evaluate management actions to control or eradicate this invasive species. The population dynamics of this species was simulated under different scenarios ranging from the absence of water flow change to a weekly variation with different flow rates, to the actual hydrodynamic situation of an intermediate flow rate. Our results show that PDP models can be very useful tools to model complex, partially desynchronized, processes that work in parallel. This allows the study of complex hydroecological processes such as the one presented, where reproductive cycles, temperature and water dynamics are involved in the desynchronization of the population dynamics both, within areas and among them. The results obtained may be useful in the management of other reservoirs with similar hydrodynamic situations in which the presence of this invasive species has been documented.

Fluid-structure interaction of an elastic pipe immersed inside a coaxial rigid pipe: a model for the Tullio phenomenon

An axisymmetric, elastic pipe is filled with an incompressible fluid and is immersed in a second, coaxial rigid pipe which contains the same fluid. A pressure pulse in the outer fluid annulus deforms the elastic pipe which invokes a fluid motion in the fluid core. It is the aim of this study to investigate streaming phenomena in the core which may originate from such a fluid-structure interaction. This work presents a numerical solver for such a configuration. It was developed in the OpenFOAM software environment and is based on the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) approach for moving meshes. The solver features a monolithic integration of the one-dimensional, coupled system between the elastic structure and the outer fluid annulus into a dynamic boundary condition for the moving surface of the fluid core. Results indicate that our configuration may serve as a mechanical model of the Tullio Phenomenon (sound-induced vertigo).

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

Longitudinal extension of myelomalacia by intramedullary and subdural hemorrhage in a canine model of spinal cord injury

BACKGROUND CONTEXT In canine intervertebral disc (IVD) extrusion, a spontaneous animal model of spinal cord injury, hemorrhage is a consistent finding. In rodent models, hemorrhage might be involved in secondary tissue destruction by biochemical mechanisms. PURPOSE This study aimed to investigate a causal association between the extents of intramedullary, subdural and epidural hemorrhage and the severity of spinal cord damage following IVD extrusion in dogs. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING A retrospective study using histologic spinal cord sections from 83 dogs euthanized following IVD extrusion was carried out. METHODS The degree of hemorrhage (intramedullary, subdural, epidural), the degree of spinal cord damage in the epicenter (white and gray matter), and the longitudinal extent of myelomalacia were graded. Associations between the extent of hemorrhage and the degree of spinal cord damage were evaluated statistically. RESULTS Intramedullary and subdural hemorrhages were significantly associated with the degree of white (p<.001/ p=.004) and gray (both p<.001) matter damage, and with the longitudinal extension of myelomalacia (p<.001/p=.005). Intriguingly, accumulation of hemorrhagic cord debris inside or dorsal to a distended and ruptured central canal in segments distant to the epicenter of the lesion was observed exhibiting a wave-like pattern on longitudinal assessment. The occurrence of this debris accumulation was associated with high degrees of tissue destruction (all p<.001). CONCLUSIONS Tissue liquefaction and increased intramedullary pressure associated with hemorrhage are involved in the progression of spinal cord destruction in a canine model of spinal cord injury and ascending or descending myelomalacia. Functional and dynamic studies are needed to investigate this concept further.

A cost-effective surgical navigation solution for periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) surgery

In this chapter a low-cost surgical navigation solution for periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) surgery is described. Two commercial inertial measurement units (IMU, Xsens Technologies, The Netherlands), are attached to a patient’s pelvis and to the acetabular fragment, respectively. Registration of the patient with a pre-operatively acquired computer model is done by recording the orientation of the patient’s anterior pelvic plane (APP) using one IMU. A custom-designed device is used to record the orientation of the APP in the reference coordinate system of the IMU. After registration, the two sensors are mounted to the patient’s pelvis and acetabular fragment, respectively. Once the initial position is recorded, the orientation is measured and displayed on a computer screen. A patient-specific computer model generated from a pre-operatively acquired computed tomography (CT) scan is used to visualize the updated orientation of the acetabular fragment. Experiments with plastic bones (7 hip joints) performed in an operating room comparing a previously developed optical navigation system with our inertial-based navigation system showed no statistical difference on the measurement of acetabular component reorientation (anteversion and inclination). In six out of seven hip joints the mean absolute difference was below five degrees for both anteversion and inclination.

From quantum to classical dynamics: The relativistic O ( N ) model in the framework of the real-time functional renormalization group

We investigate the transition from unitary to dissipative dynamics in the relativistic O(N) vector model with the λ(φ2)2 interaction using the nonperturbative functional renormalization group in the real-time formalism. In thermal equilibrium, the theory is characterized by two scales, the interaction range for coherent scattering of particles and the mean free path determined by the rate of incoherent collisions with excitations in the thermal medium. Their competition determines the renormalization group flow and the effective dynamics of the model. Here we quantify the dynamic properties of the model in terms of the scale-dependent dynamic critical exponent z in the limit of large temperatures and in 2≤d≤4 spatial dimensions. We contrast our results to the behavior expected at vanishing temperature and address the question of the appropriate dynamic universality class for the given microscopic theory.

A cost-effective surgical navigation solution for periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) surgery.

PURPOSE To evaluate a low-cost, inertial sensor-based surgical navigation solution for periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) surgery without the line-of-sight impediment. METHODS Two commercial inertial measurement units (IMU, Xsens Technologies, The Netherlands), are attached to a patient's pelvis and to the acetabular fragment, respectively. Registration of the patient with a pre-operatively acquired computer model is done by recording the orientation of the patient's anterior pelvic plane (APP) using one IMU. A custom-designed device is used to record the orientation of the APP in the reference coordinate system of the IMU. After registration, the two sensors are mounted to the patient's pelvis and acetabular fragment, respectively. Once the initial position is recorded, the orientation is measured and displayed on a computer screen. A patient-specific computer model generated from a pre-operatively acquired computed tomography scan is used to visualize the updated orientation of the acetabular fragment. RESULTS Experiments with plastic bones (eight hip joints) performed in an operating room comparing a previously developed optical navigation system with our inertial-based navigation system showed no statistically significant difference on the measurement of acetabular component reorientation. In all eight hip joints the mean absolute difference was below four degrees. CONCLUSION Using two commercially available inertial measurement units we show that it is possible to accurately measure the orientation (inclination and anteversion) of the acetabular fragment during PAO surgery and therefore to successfully eliminate the line-of-sight impediment that optical navigation systems have.