Financial analysis of various strategies for the control of Neospora caninum in dairy cattle in Switzerland

The present study was conducted to estimate the direct losses due to Neospora caninum in Swiss dairy cattle and to assess the costs and benefits of different potential control strategies. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet module was developed to estimate the direct costs caused by N. caninum, with and without control strategies, and to estimate the costs of these control strategies in a financial analysis. The control strategies considered were "testing and culling of seropositive female cattle", "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows", "chemotherapeutical treatment of female offspring" and "vaccination of all female cattle". Each parameter in the module that was considered to be uncertain, was described using probability distributions. The simulations were run with 20,000 iterations over a time period of 25 years. The median annual losses due to N. caninum in the Swiss dairy cow population were estimated to be euro 9.7 million euros. All control strategies that required yearly serological testing of all cattle in the population produced high costs and thus were not financially profitable. Among the other control strategies, two showed benefit-cost ratios (BCR) >1 and positive net present values (NPV): "Discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows" (BCR=1.29, NPV=25 million euros ) and "chemotherapeutical treatment of all female offspring" (BCR=2.95, NPV=59 million euros). In economic terms, the best control strategy currently available would therefore be "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows".

Simulation-based cost-utility analysis of population screening-based alendronate use in Switzerland

A simulation model adopting a health system perspective showed population-based screening with DXA, followed by alendronate treatment of persons with osteoporosis, or with anamnestic fracture and osteopenia, to be cost-effective in Swiss postmenopausal women from age 70, but not in men. INTRODUCTION: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a population-based screen-and-treat strategy for osteoporosis (DXA followed by alendronate treatment if osteoporotic, or osteopenic in the presence of fracture), compared to no intervention, from the perspective of the Swiss health care system. METHODS: A published Markov model assessed by first-order Monte Carlo simulation was refined to reflect the diagnostic process and treatment effects. Women and men entered the model at age 50. Main screening ages were 65, 75, and 85 years. Age at bone densitometry was flexible for persons fracturing before the main screening age. Realistic assumptions were made with respect to persistence with intended 5 years of alendronate treatment. The main outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: In women, costs per QALY were Swiss francs (CHF) 71,000, CHF 35,000, and CHF 28,000 for the main screening ages of 65, 75, and 85 years. The threshold of CHF 50,000 per QALY was reached between main screening ages 65 and 75 years. Population-based screening was not cost-effective in men. CONCLUSION: Population-based DXA screening, followed by alendronate treatment in the presence of osteoporosis, or of fracture and osteopenia, is a cost-effective option in Swiss postmenopausal women after age 70.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

A model of osteoporosis impact in Switzerland 2000-2020

The aim of our study was to develop a modeling framework suitable to quantify the incidence, absolute number and economic impact of osteoporosis-attributable hip, vertebral and distal forearm fractures, with a particular focus on change over time, and with application to the situation in Switzerland from 2000 to 2020. A Markov process model was developed and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. A demographic scenario provided by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and various Swiss and international data sources were used as model inputs. Demographic and epidemiologic input parameters were reproduced correctly, confirming the internal validity of the model. The proportion of the Swiss population aged 50 years or over will rise from 33.3% in 2000 to 41.3% in 2020. At the total population level, osteoporosis-attributable incidence will rise from 1.16 to 1.54 per 1,000 person-years in the case of hip fracture, from 3.28 to 4.18 per 1,000 person-years in the case of radiographic vertebral fracture, and from 0.59 to 0.70 per 1,000 person-years in the case of distal forearm fracture. Osteoporosis-attributable hip fracture numbers will rise from 8,375 to 11,353, vertebral fracture numbers will rise from 23,584 to 30,883, and distal forearm fracture numbers will rise from 4,209 to 5,186. Population-level osteoporosis-related direct medical inpatient costs per year will rise from 713.4 million Swiss francs (CHF) to CHF946.2 million. These figures correspond to 1.6% and 2.2% of Swiss health care expenditures in 2000. The modeling framework described can be applied to a wide variety of settings. It can be used to assess the impact of new prevention, diagnostic and treatment strategies. In Switzerland incidences of osteoporotic hip, vertebral and distal forearm fracture will rise by 33%, 27%, and 19%, respectively, between 2000 and 2020, if current prevention and treatment patterns are maintained. Corresponding absolute fracture numbers will rise by 36%, 31%, and 23%. Related direct medical inpatient costs are predicted to increase by 33%; however, this estimate is subject to uncertainty due to limited availability of input data.

Multi-scale micro-structure generation strategy for up-scaling transport in clays

Clays and claystones are used as backfill and barrier materials in the design of waste repositories, because they act as hydraulic barriers and retain contaminants. Transport through such barriers occurs mainly by molecular diffusion. There is thus an interest to relate the diffusion properties of clays to their structural properties. In previous work, we have developed a concept for up-scaling pore-scale molecular diffusion coefficients using a grid-based model for the sample pore structure. Here we present an operational algorithm which can generate such model pore structures of polymineral materials. The obtained pore maps match the rock’s mineralogical components and its macroscopic properties such as porosity, grain and pore size distributions. Representative ensembles of grains in 2D or 3D are created by a lattice Monte Carlo (MC) method, which minimizes the interfacial energy of grains starting from an initial grain distribution. Pores are generated at grain boundaries and/or within grains. The method is general and allows to generate anisotropic structures with grains of approximately predetermined shapes, or with mixtures of different grain types. A specific focus of this study was on the simulation of clay-like materials. The generated clay pore maps were then used to derive upscaled effective diffusion coefficients for non-sorbing tracers using a homogenization technique. The large number of generated maps allowed to check the relations between micro-structural features of clays and their effective transport parameters, as is required to explain and extrapolate experimental diffusion results. As examples, we present a set of 2D and 3D simulations and investigated the effects of nanopores within particles (interlayer pores) and micropores between particles. Archie’s simple power law is followed in systems with only micropores. When nanopores are present, additional parameters are required; the data reveal that effective diffusion coefficients could be described by a sum of two power functions, related to the micro- and nanoporosity. We further used the model to investigate the relationships between particle orientation and effective transport properties of the sample.

Beamlet based direct aperture optimization for MERT using a photon MLC

PURPOSE A beamlet based direct aperture optimization (DAO) for modulated electron radiotherapy (MERT) using photon multileaf collimator (pMLC) shaped electron fields is developed and investigated. METHODS The Swiss Monte Carlo Plan (SMCP) allows the calculation of dose distributions for pMLC shaped electron beams. SMCP is interfaced with the Eclipse TPS (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) which can thus be included into the inverse treatment planning process for MERT. This process starts with the import of a CT-scan into Eclipse, the contouring of the target and the organs at risk (OARs), and the choice of the initial electron beam directions. For each electron beam, the number of apertures, their energy, and initial shape are defined. Furthermore, the DAO requires dose-volume constraints for the structures contoured. In order to carry out the DAO efficiently, the initial electron beams are divided into a grid of beamlets. For each of those, the dose distribution is precalculated using a modified electron beam model, resulting in a dose list for each beamlet and energy. Then the DAO is carried out, leading to a set of optimal apertures and corresponding weights. These optimal apertures are now converted into pMLC shaped segments and the dose calculation for each segment is performed. For these dose distributions, a weight optimization process is launched in order to minimize the differences between the dose distribution using the optimal apertures and the pMLC segments. Finally, a deliverable dose distribution for the MERT plan is obtained and loaded back into Eclipse for evaluation. For an idealized water phantom geometry, a MERT treatment plan is created and compared to the plan obtained using a previously developed forward planning strategy. Further, MERT treatment plans for three clinical situations (breast, chest wall, and parotid metastasis of a squamous cell skin carcinoma) are created using the developed inverse planning strategy. The MERT plans are compared to clinical standard treatment plans using photon beams and the differences between the optimal and the deliverable dose distributions are determined. RESULTS For the idealized water phantom geometry, the inversely optimized MERT plan is able to obtain the same PTV coverage, but with an improved OAR sparing compared to the forwardly optimized plan. Regarding the right-sided breast case, the MERT plan is able to reduce the lung volume receiving more than 30% of the prescribed dose and the mean lung dose compared to the standard plan. However, the standard plan leads to a better homogeneity within the CTV. The results for the left-sided thorax wall are similar but also the dose to the heart is reduced comparing MERT to the standard treatment plan. For the parotid case, MERT leads to lower doses for almost all OARs but to a less homogeneous dose distribution for the PTV when compared to a standard plan. For all cases, the weight optimization successfully minimized the differences between the optimal and the deliverable dose distribution. CONCLUSIONS A beamlet based DAO using multiple beam angles is implemented and successfully tested for an idealized water phantom geometry and clinical situations.

Measurement of the muon reconstruction performance of the ATLAS detector using 2011 and 2012 LHC proton-proton collision data

This paper presents the performance of the ATLAS muon reconstruction during the LHC run with pp collisions at √s = 7–8 TeV in 2011–2012, focusing mainly on data collected in 2012. Measurements of the reconstruction efficiency and of the momentum scale and resolution, based on large reference samples of J/ψ → μμ, Z → μμ and ϒ → μμ decays, are presented and compared to Monte Carlo simulations. Corrections to the simulation, to be used in physics analysis, are provided. Over most of the covered phase space (muon |η| < 2.7 and 5 ≲ pT ≲ 100 GeV) the efficiency is above 99% and is measured with per-mille precision. The momentum resolution ranges from 1.7% at central rapidity and for transverse momentum pT ≅ 10 GeV, to 4% at large rapidity and pT ≅ 100 GeV. The momentum scale is known with an uncertainty of 0.05% to 0.2% depending on rapidity. A method for the recovery of final state radiation from the muons is also presented.

Measurement of dijet cross sections in pp collisions at 7 TeV centre-of-mass energy using the ATLAS detector

Double-differential dijet cross-sections measured in pp collisions at the LHC with a 7TeV centre-of-mass energy are presented as functions of dijet mass and half the rapidity separation of the two highest-pT jets. These measurements are obtained using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.5 fb−1, recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011. The data are corrected for detector effects so that cross-sections are presented at the particle level. Cross-sections are measured up to 5TeV dijet mass using jets reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm for values of the jet radius parameter of 0.4 and 0.6. The cross-sections are compared with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD calculations by NLOJet++ corrected to account for non-perturbative effects. Comparisons with POWHEG predictions, using a next-to-leading-order matrix element calculation interfaced to a partonshower Monte Carlo simulation, are also shown. Electroweak effects are accounted for in both cases. The quantitative comparison of data and theoretical predictions obtained using various parameterizations of the parton distribution functions is performed using a frequentist method. In general, good agreement with data is observed for the NLOJet++ theoretical predictions when using the CT10, NNPDF2.1 and MSTW 2008 PDF sets. Disagreement is observed when using the ABM11 and HERAPDF1.5 PDF sets for some ranges of dijet mass and half the rapidity separation. An example setting a lower limit on the compositeness scale for a model of contact interactions is presented, showing that the unfolded results can be used to constrain contributions to dijet production beyond that predicted by the Standard Model.

Graphics Processor Unit Based Parallelization of Optimized Baseline Wander Filtering Algorithms for Long-term Electrocardiography

Long-term electrocardiogram (ECG) often suffers from relevant noise. Baseline wander in particular is pronounced in ECG recordings using dry or esophageal electrodes, which are dedicated for prolonged registration. While analog high-pass filters introduce phase distortions, reliable offline filtering of the baseline wander implies a computational burden that has to be put in relation to the increase in signal-to-baseline ratio (SBR). Here we present a graphics processor unit (GPU) based parallelization method to speed up offline baseline wander filter algorithms, namely the wavelet, finite, and infinite impulse response, moving mean, and moving median filter. Individual filter parameters were optimized with respect to the SBR increase based on ECGs from the Physionet database superimposed to auto-regressive modeled, real baseline wander. A Monte-Carlo simulation showed that for low input SBR the moving median filter outperforms any other method but negatively affects ECG wave detection. In contrast, the infinite impulse response filter is preferred in case of high input SBR. However, the parallelized wavelet filter is processed 500 and 4 times faster than these two algorithms on the GPU, respectively, and offers superior baseline wander suppression in low SBR situations. Using a signal segment of 64 mega samples that is filtered as entire unit, wavelet filtering of a 7-day high-resolution ECG is computed within less than 3 seconds. Taking the high filtering speed into account, the GPU wavelet filter is the most efficient method to remove baseline wander present in long-term ECGs, with which computational burden can be strongly reduced.

Real-time simulation of nonequilibrium transport of magnetization in large open quantum spin systems driven by dissipation

Using quantum Monte Carlo, we study the nonequilibrium transport of magnetization in large open strongly correlated quantum spin-12 systems driven by purely dissipative processes that conserve the uniform or staggered magnetization, disregarding unitary Hamiltonian dynamics. We prepare both a low-temperature Heisenberg ferromagnet and an antiferromagnet in two parts of the system that are initially isolated from each other. We then bring the two subsystems in contact and study their real-time dissipative dynamics for different geometries. The flow of the uniform or staggered magnetization from one part of the system to the other is described by a diffusion equation that can be derived analytically.

Stochastic simulation of rare events

Stochastic simulation is an important and practical technique for computing probabilities of rare events, like the payoff probability of a financial option, the probability that a queue exceeds a certain level or the probability of ruin of the insurer's risk process. Rare events occur so infrequently, that they cannot be reasonably recorded during a standard simulation procedure: specifc simulation algorithms which thwart the rarity of the event to simulate are required. An important algorithm in this context is based on changing the sampling distribution and it is called importance sampling. Optimal Monte Carlo algorithms for computing rare event probabilities are either logarithmic eficient or possess bounded relative error.

Standard Errors for the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition

The decomposition technique introduced by Blinder (1973) and Oaxaca (1973) is widely used to study outcome differences between groups. For example, the technique is commonly applied to the analysis of the gender wage gap. However, despite the procedure's frequent use, very little attention has been paid to the issue of estimating the sampling variances of the decomposition components. We therefore suggest an approach that introduces consistent variance estimators for several variants of the decomposition. The accuracy of the new estimators under ideal conditions is illustrated with the results of a Monte Carlo simulation. As a second check, the estimators are compared to bootstrap results obtained using real data. In contrast to previously proposed statistics, the new method takes into account the extra variation imposed by stochastic regressors.