Resolving the tragedy of the commons: the feedback between intraspecific conflict and population density

Competition and conflict among individuals can favour exploitative strategies that undermine the common good. Theory suggests that this can lead to a tragedy of the commons and ultimately population extinction, a phenomenon known as evolutionary suicide. Here, I present a model of the evolutionary tragedy of the commons that explicitly considers the population dynamics where individuals invest in individually costly competitive traits. In the simplest form, this supports the notion that selection for high levels of conflict can cause evolutionary suicide. However, as competition comes with survival and fecundity costs, a feedback between the investment in competition and population density can act to reduce the level of conflict and prevent the population from going extinct. This suggests that the interaction between population ecology and the evolution of competition and conflict among individuals may be an important mechanism in resolving the level of competition and conflict among individuals.

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

High life in the sky? Mortality by floor of residence in Switzerland

Living in high-rise buildings could influence the health of residents. Previous studies focused on structural features of high-rise buildings or characteristics of their neighbourhoods, ignoring differences within buildings in socio-economic position or health outcomes. We examined mortality by floor of residence in the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study based on the linkage of December 2000 census with mortality and emigration records 2001-2008. Analyses were based on 1.5 million people living in buildings with four or more floors and 142,390 deaths recorded during 11.4 million person-years of follow-up. Cox models were adjusted for age, sex, civil status, nationality, language, religion, education, professional status, type of household and crowding. The rent per m² increased with higher floors and the number of persons per room decreased. Mortality rates decreased with increasing floors: hazard ratios comparing the ground floor with the eighth floor and above were 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.28] for all causes, 1.40 (95% CI 1.11-1.77) for respiratory diseases, 1.35 (95% CI 1.22-1.49) for cardiovascular diseases and 1.22 (95% CI 0.99-1.50) for lung cancer, but 0.41 (95% CI 0.17-0.98) for suicide by jumping from a high place. There was no association with suicide by any means (hazard ratio 0.81; 95% CI 0.57-1.15). We conclude that in Switzerland all-cause and cause-specific mortality varies across floors of residence among people living in high-rise buildings. Gradients in mortality suggest that floor of residence captures residual socioeconomic stratification and is likely to be mediated by behavioural (e.g. physical activity), and environmental exposures, and access to a method of suicide.

Homicide-suicides compared to homicides and suicides: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Homicide-suicides, the murder of one or several individuals followed by the suicide of the perpetrator, are rare but have devastating effects on families and communities. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing perpetrators of homicide-suicides with perpetrators of simple homicides and suicides and examined the proportion of firearm use and its correlation with firearm availability. We searched Medline and Embase from inception to July 2012 and identified 27 eligible studies. Perpetrators of homicide-suicides were older and more likely to be male and married to or separated from their victims than perpetrator of simple homicides or suicides. Influence of alcohol and a history of domestic violence or unemployment were less prevalent in homicide-suicides than in homicides. The proportion of firearm use in homicide-suicides varied across countries and was highest in the USA, Switzerland and South Africa, followed by Australia, Canada, The Netherlands and England and Wales, with a strong correlation between the use of firearms and the level of civilian gun ownership in the country. Our results indicate that homicide-suicides represent a distinct entity, with characteristics distinguishing them both from homicides and suicides.

Safety of non-therapeutic atomoxetine exposures - a national poison data system study

AIMS This study's objective is to assess the safety of non-therapeutic atomoxetine exposures reported to the US National Poison Database System (NPDS). METHODS This is a retrospective database study of non-therapeutic single agent ingestions of atomoxetine in children and adults reported to the NPDS between 2002 and 2010. RESULTS A total of 20 032 atomoxetine exposures were reported during the study period, and 12 370 of these were single agent exposures. The median age was 9 years (interquartile range 3, 14), and 7380 were male (59.7%). Of the single agent exposures, 8813 (71.2%) were acute exposures, 3315 (26.8%) were acute-on-chronic, and 166 (1.3%) were chronic. In 10 608 (85.8%) cases, exposure was unintentional, in 1079 (8.7%) suicide attempts, and in 629 (5.1%) cases abuse. Of these cases, 3633 (29.4 %) were managed at health-care facilities. Acute-on-chronic exposure was associated with an increased risk of a suicidal reason for exposure compared with acute ingestions (odds ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.65). Most common clinical effects were drowsiness or lethargy (709 cases; 5.7%), tachycardia (555; 4.5%), and nausea (388; 3.1%). Major toxicity was observed in 21 cases (seizures in nine (42.9%), tachycardia in eight (38.1%), coma in six (28.6%), and ventricular dysrhythmia in one case (4.8%)). CONCLUSIONS Non-therapeutic atomoxetine exposures were largely safe, but seizures were rarely observed.

Serious suicidal behaviors: socio-demographic and clinical features in a multinational, multicenter sample

BACKGROUND: Declared suicidal intent and physical danger are both considered important components in defining suicidal behaviors (SB). AIMS: 1) To investigate characteristics of serious suicidal behaviors (SSB), defined by either suicidal intent or lethality; 2) To determine any difference in terms of socio-demographic, clinical and/or service usage variables between SSB and non-serious suicidal behaviors (NSSB). METHODS: A total of 2631 contacts for SB were registered in the context of the MONSUE (Monitoring Suicidal Behavior in Europe) study project. Demographic and clinical information were registered. ICD-10 was used for classifying data about psychiatric diagnoses, methods used for SB and injuries reported. Clear intentionality, high-case fatality methods and serious injuries all defined SSB (n = 1169; 44.4%) RESULTS: SSB were more often preceded by a contact with an inpatient (either psychiatric or somatic) rather than an outpatient service. Among those having a previous history of SB, SSB subjects had fewer contacts with health services before the previous attempt. The strongest predictors for SSB appeared to be older age and not professing a religion. CONCLUSION: Many of the known factors contributing to the risk of completed suicide were also present for SSB. Our findings on service usage by suicide attempters show which aspects of mental health services should be strengthened in order to improve suicide prevention.

Suicidal ideation in a European Huntington's disease population.

BACKGROUND Previous studies indicate increased prevalences of suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and completed suicide in Huntington's disease (HD) compared with the general population. This study investigates correlates and predictors of suicidal ideation in HD. METHODS The study cohort consisted of 2106 HD mutation carriers, all participating in the REGISTRY study of the European Huntington's Disease Network. Of the 1937 participants without suicidal ideation at baseline, 945 had one or more follow-up measurements. Participants were assessed for suicidal ideation by the behavioural subscale of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS). Correlates of suicidal ideation were analyzed using logistic regression analysis and predictors were analyzed using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS At baseline, 169 (8.0%) mutation carriers endorsed suicidal ideation. Disease duration (odds ratio [OR]=0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9-1.0), anxiety (OR=2.14; 95%CI: 1.4-3.3), aggression (OR=2.41; 95%CI: 1.5-3.8), a previous suicide attempt (OR=3.95; 95%CI: 2.4-6.6), and a depressed mood (OR=13.71; 95%CI: 6.7-28.0) were independently correlated to suicidal ideation at baseline. The 4-year cumulative incidence of suicidal ideation was 9.9%. Longitudinally, the presence of a depressed mood (hazard ratio [HR]=2.05; 95%CI: 1.1-4.0) and use of benzodiazepines (HR=2.44; 95%CI: 1.2-5.0) at baseline were independent predictors of incident suicidal ideation, whereas a previous suicide attempt was not predictive. LIMITATIONS As suicidal ideation was assessed by only one item, and participants were a selection of all HD mutation carriers, the prevalence of suicidal ideation was likely underestimated. CONCLUSIONS Suicidal ideation in HD frequently occurs. Assessment of suicidal ideation is a priority in mutation carriers with a depressed mood and in those using benzodiazepines.

Fatal contact shot to the chest caused by the gas jet from a muzzle-loading pistol discharging only black powder and no bullet: case study and experimental simulation of the wounding effect.

In modern medico-legal literature, only a small number of publications deal with fatal injuries from black powder guns. Most of them focus on the morphological features such as intense soot soiling, blast tattooing and burn effects in close-range shots or describe the wound ballistics of spherical lead bullets. Another kind of "unusual" and potentially lethal weapons are handguns destined for firing only blank cartridges such as starter and alarm pistols. The dangerousness of these guns is restricted to very close and contact range shots and results from the gas jet produced by the deflagration of the propellant. The present paper reports on a suicide committed with a muzzle-loading percussion pistol cal. 45. An unusually large stellate entrance wound was located in the precordial region, accompanied by an imprint mark from the ramrod and a faint greenish discoloration (apparently due to the formation of sulfhemoglobin). Autopsy revealed an oversized powder cavity, multiple fractures of the anterior thoracic wall as well as ruptures of the heart, the aorta, the left hepatic lobe and the diaphragm. In total, the zone of mechanical destruction had a diameter of approx. 15 cm. As there was no exit wound and no bullet lodged in the body, the injury was caused exclusively by the inrushing combustion gases of the propellant (black powder) comparable with the gas jet of a blank cartridge gun. In contact shots to ballistic gelatine using the suicide's pistol loaded with black powder but no projectile, the formation of a nearly spherical cavity could be demonstrated by means of a high-speed camera. The extent of the temporary cavity after firing with 5 g of black powder roughly corresponded to the zone of destruction found in the suicide's body.

History of offending behavior in first episode psychosis patients: A marker of specific clinical needs and a call for early detection strategies among young offenders

OBJECTIVES Previous literature suggests that early psychosis (EP) patients with a history of offending behavior (HOB) have specific clinical needs. The aims of this study were to assess: (1) the prevalence of HOB in a representative sample of EP; (2) the premorbid and baseline characteristics of patients with HOB, and (3) the potential differences in short-term outcome of such patients when compared to patients without HOB. METHODS The Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) admitted 786 EP patients between 1998 and 2000. Data were collected from patients' files using a standardized questionnaire. Data of 647 patients could be analyzed. RESULTS HOB patients (29% of the sample) were more likely to be male with lower level of premorbid functioning and education, have used illicit substances and have attempted suicide. They presented with a more complex clinical picture and had poorer 18-month outcome. Most importantly, they had a significantly longer duration of untreated psychosis. CONCLUSIONS On the basis of the high prevalence and specific features of EP patients with HOB, our study confirms a need for additional research in this domain and for the development of specific treatment strategies. Most importantly, it suggests a need for the promotion of early detection strategies among the populations of young offenders, considering that some of them may be going through the early phases of a psychotic disorder and that reduction of treatment delay and provision of well adapted interventions may have a significant impact at numerous levels in such patients

Time-trends in assisted and unassisted suicides completed with different methods: Swiss National Cohort.

OBJECTIVE The number of suicides assisted by right-to-die associations has increased in recent years in Switzerland. The aim of our study was to compare time trends in rates of assisted and unassisted suicide from 1991-2008. METHODS The Swiss National Cohort is a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss population; based on linkage of census data with mortality records up to 2008. The Federal Statistical Office coded suspected assisted suicides from 1998 onwards; and from 2003 onwards right-to-die associations reported the suicides they assisted. We used Poisson regression to analyse trends in rates of suicide per 100'000 person-years, by gender and age groups (15-34, 35-64, 65-94 years). RESULTS A total of 7'940'297 individuals and 24'842 suicides were included. In women, rates changed little in the younger age groups but increased in 65-94-year-olds, due to an increase in suicide by poisoning (from 5.1 to 17.2 per 100'000; p <0.001). An increase in suicides by poisoning was also observed in older men (from 8.6 to 18.2; p<0.001). Most suicides by poisoning were assisted. In men, suicide rates declined in all age groups, driven by declines in suicide with firearms. CONCLUSIONS Research is needed to gain a better understanding of the reasons for the tripling of assisted suicide rates in older women, and the doubling of rates in older men, of attitudes and vulnerabilities of those choosing assisted suicide, and of access to palliative care. Rates of assisted suicide should be monitored; including data on patient characteristics and underlying comorbidities.

Postmortem non-invasive virtual autopsy: death by hanging in a car.

A body was found behind a car with a noose tied around its neck, the other end of the rope tied to a tree. Apparently the man committed suicide by driving away with the noose tied around his neck and was dragged out of the car through the open hatchback. postmortem multislice-computed tomography (MSCT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) indicated that the cause of death was cerebral hypoxia due to classic strangulation by hanging, and not due to a brainstem lesion because of a hang-man fracture as would be expected in such a dynamic situation. Furthermore, the MRI displayed intramuscular haemorrhage, bleeding into the clavicular insertions of the sternocleidomastoid muscles and subcutaneous neck tissue. We conclude that MSCT and MRI are useful instruments with an increased value compared with 2D radiographs to augment the external findings of bodies when an autopsy is refused. But further postmortem research and comparing validation is needed.

Report of the WPA section of pharmacopsychiatry on the relationship of antiepileptic drugs with suicidality in epilepsy

INTRODUCTION This report from the World Psychiatric Association Section on Pharmacopsychiatry examines the possible relationship of antiepileptic drugs with suicide-related clinical features and behaviors in patients with epilepsy. MATERIALS AND METHODS A systematic review of the MEDLINE search returned 1039 papers, of which only 8 were considered relevant. A critical analysis of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) report on the increase risk for patients under antiepileptics to manifest suicidality is also included in this report. RESULTS The analysis of these studies revealed that the data are not supportive of the presence of a "class effect" on suicide-related behavior; on the contrary, there are some data suggesting such an effect concerning treatment with topiramate, lamotrigine, and levetiracetam for which further research is needed. DISCUSSION For the majority of people with epilepsy, anticonvulsant treatment is necessary and its failure for any reason is expected to have deleterious consequences. Therefore, clinicians should inform patients and their families of this increased risk of suicidal ideation and behavior, but should not overemphasize the issue. Specific subgroups of patients with epilepsy might be at a higher risk, and deserve closer monitoring and follow-up. Future research with antiepileptics should specifically focus on depression and suicidal thoughts.

Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study.

BACKGROUND In an effort to reduce firearm mortality rates in the USA, US states have enacted a range of firearm laws to either strengthen or deregulate the existing main federal gun control law, the Brady Law. We set out to determine the independent association of different firearm laws with overall firearm mortality, homicide firearm mortality, and suicide firearm mortality across all US states. We also projected the potential reduction of firearm mortality if the three most strongly associated firearm laws were enacted at the federal level. METHODS We constructed a cross-sectional, state-level dataset from Nov 1, 2014, to May 15, 2015, using counts of firearm-related deaths in each US state for the years 2008-10 (stratified by intent [homicide and suicide]) from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, data about 25 firearm state laws implemented in 2009, and state-specific characteristics such as firearm ownership for 2013, firearm export rates, and non-firearm homicide rates for 2009, and unemployment rates for 2010. Our primary outcome measure was overall firearm-related mortality per 100 000 people in the USA in 2010. We used Poisson regression with robust variances to derive incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs. FINDINGS 31 672 firearm-related deaths occurred in 2010 in the USA (10·1 per 100 000 people; mean state-specific count 631·5 [SD 629·1]). Of 25 firearm laws, nine were associated with reduced firearm mortality, nine were associated with increased firearm mortality, and seven had an inconclusive association. After adjustment for relevant covariates, the three state laws most strongly associated with reduced overall firearm mortality were universal background checks for firearm purchase (multivariable IRR 0·39 [95% CI 0·23-0·67]; p=0·001), ammunition background checks (0·18 [0·09-0·36]; p<0·0001), and identification requirement for firearms (0·16 [0·09-0·29]; p<0·0001). Projected federal-level implementation of universal background checks for firearm purchase could reduce national firearm mortality from 10·35 to 4·46 deaths per 100 000 people, background checks for ammunition purchase could reduce it to 1·99 per 100 000, and firearm identification to 1·81 per 100 000. INTERPRETATION Very few of the existing state-specific firearm laws are associated with reduced firearm mortality, and this evidence underscores the importance of focusing on relevant and effective firearms legislation. Implementation of universal background checks for the purchase of firearms or ammunition, and firearm identification nationally could substantially reduce firearm mortality in the USA. FUNDING None.

A Single-blinded, Randomized Clinical Trial of How to Implement an Evidence-based Treatment for Generalized Anxiety Disorder [IMPLEMENT] — Effects of Three Different Strategies of Implementation

BACKGROUND: Despite long-standing calls to disseminate evidence-based treatments for generalized anxiety (GAD), modest progress has been made in the study of how such treatments should be implemented. The primary objective of this study was to test three competing strategies on how to implement a cognitive behavioral treatment (CBT) for out-patients with GAD (i.e., comparison of one compensation vs. two capitalization models). METHODS: For our three-arm, single-blinded, randomized controlled trial (implementation of CBT for GAD [IMPLEMENT]), we recruited adults with GAD using advertisements in high-circulation newspapers to participate in a 14-session cognitive behavioral treatment (Mastery of your Anxiety and Worry, MAW-packet). We randomly assigned eligible patients using a full randomization procedure (1:1:1) to three different conditions of implementation: adherence priming (compensation model), which had a systematized focus on patients' individual GAD symptoms and how to compensate for these symptoms within the MAW-packet, and resource priming and supportive resource priming (capitalization model), which had systematized focuses on patients' strengths and abilities and how these strengths can be capitalized within the same packet. In the intention-to-treat population an outcome composite of primary and secondary symptoms-related self-report questionnaires was analyzed based on a hierarchical linear growth model from intake to 6-month follow-up assessment. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT02039193) and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: From June 2012 to Nov. 2014, from 411 participants that were screened, 57 eligible participants were recruited and randomly assigned to three conditions. Forty-nine patients (86%) provided outcome data at post-assessment (14% dropout rate). All three conditions showed a highly significant reduction of symptoms over time. However, compared with the adherence priming condition, both resource priming conditions indicated faster symptom reduction. The observer ratings of a sub-sample of recorded videos (n = 100) showed that the therapists in the resource priming conditions conducted more strength-oriented interventions in comparison with the adherence priming condition. No patients died or attempted suicide. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first trial that focuses on capitalization and compensation models during the implementation of one prescriptive treatment packet for GAD. We have shown that GAD related symptoms were significantly faster reduced by the resource priming conditions, although the limitations of our study included a well-educated population. If replicated, our results suggest that therapists who implement a mental health treatment for GAD might profit from a systematized focus on capitalization models. FUNDING: Swiss Science National Foundation (SNSF-Nr. PZ00P1_136937/1) awarded to CF. KEYWORDS: Cognitive behavioral therapy; Evidence-based treatment; Implementation strategies; Randomized controlled trial