Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Utility of electrophysiological studies to predict arrhythmic events

AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of electrophysiological stimulation (EPS) in the risk stratification for tachyarrhythmic events and sudden cardiac death (SCD). METHODS We conducted a prospective cohort study and analyzed the long-term follow-up of 265 consecutive patients who underwent programmed ventricular stimulation at the Luzerner Kantonsspital (Lucerne, Switzerland) between October 2003 and April 2012. Patients underwent EPS for SCD risk evaluation because of structural or functional heart disease and/or electrical conduction abnormality and/or after syncope/cardiac arrest. EPS was considered abnormal, if a sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) was inducible. The primary endpoint of the study was SCD or, in implanted patients, adequate ICD-activation. RESULTS During EPS, sustained VT was induced in 125 patients (47.2%) and non-sustained VT in 60 patients (22.6%); in 80 patients (30.2%) no arrhythmia could be induced. In our cohort, 153 patients (57.7%) underwent ICD implantation after the EPS. During follow-up (mean duration 4.8 ± 2.3 years), a primary endpoint event occurred in 49 patients (18.5%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.593 (95%CI: 0.515-0.670) for a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 35% and 0.636 (95%CI: 0.563-0.709) for inducible sustained VT during EPS. The AUROC of EPS was higher in the subgroup of patients with LVEF ≥ 35% (0.681, 95%CI: 0.578-0.785). Cox regression analysis showed that both, sustained VT during EPS (HR: 2.26, 95%CI: 1.22-4.19, P = 0.009) and LVEF < 35% (HR: 2.00, 95%CI: 1.13-3.54, P = 0.018) were independent predictors of primary endpoint events. CONCLUSION EPS provides a benefit in risk stratification for future tachyarrhythmic events and SCD and should especially be considered in patients with LVEF ≥ 35%.

The utility of preoperative six-minute-walk distance in lung transplantation

RATIONALE The use of 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) as an indicator of exercise capacity to predict postoperative survival in lung transplantation has not previously been well studied. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the association between 6MWD and postoperative survival following lung transplantation. METHODS Adult, first time, lung-only transplantations per the United Network for Organ Sharing database from May 2005 to December 2011 were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to determine the association between preoperative 6MWD and post-transplant survival after adjusting for potential confounders. A receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the 6MWD value that provided maximal separation in 1-year mortality. A subanalysis was performed to assess the association between 6MWD and post-transplant survival by disease category. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A total of 9,526 patients were included for analysis. The median 6MWD was 787 ft (25th-75th percentiles = 450-1,082 ft). Increasing 6MWD was associated with significantly lower overall hazard of death (P < 0.001). Continuous increase in walk distance through 1,200-1,400 ft conferred an incremental survival advantage. Although 6MWD strongly correlated with survival, the impact of a single dichotomous value to predict outcomes was limited. All disease categories demonstrated significantly longer survival with increasing 6MWD (P ≤ 0.009) except pulmonary vascular disease (P = 0.74); however, the low volume in this category (n = 312; 3.3%) may limit the ability to detect an association. CONCLUSIONS 6MWD is significantly associated with post-transplant survival and is best incorporated into transplant evaluations on a continuous basis given limited ability of a single, dichotomous value to predict outcomes.

Spatial Distribution of Stem Cell-Like Keratinocytes in Dissected Compound Hair Follicles of the Dog

Hair cycle disturbances are common in dogs and comparable to some alopecic disorders in humans. A normal hair cycle is maintained by follicular stem cells which are predominately found in an area known as the bulge. Due to similar morphological characteristics of the bulge area in humans and dogs, the shared particularity of compound hair follicles as well as similarities in follicular biomarker expression, the dog is a promising model to study human hair cycle and stem cell disorders. To gain insight into the spatial distribution of follicular keratinocytes with stem cell potential in canine compound follicles, we microdissected hair follicles in anagen and telogen from skin samples of freshly euthanized dogs. The keratinocytes isolated from different locations were investigated for their colony forming efficiency, growth and differentiation potential as well as clonal growth. Our results indicate that i) compound and single hair follicles exhibit a comparable spatial distribution pattern with respect to cells with high growth potential and stem cell-like characteristics, ii) the lower isthmus (comprising the bulge) harbors most cells with high growth potential in both, the anagen and the telogen hair cycle stage, iii) unlike in other species, colonies with highest growth potential are rather small with an irregular perimeter and iv) the keratinocytes derived from the bulbar region exhibit characteristics of actively dividing transit amplifying cells. Our results now provide the basis to conduct comparative studies of normal dogs and those with hair cycle disorders with the possibility to extend relevant findings to human patients.

The clinical utility of basophil activation testing in diagnosis and monitoring of allergic disease

The basophil activation test (BAT) has become a pervasive test for allergic response through the development of flow cytometry, discovery of activation markers such as CD63 and unique markers identifying basophil granulocytes. Basophil activation test measures basophil response to allergen cross-linking IgE on between 150 and 2000 basophil granulocytes in <0.1 ml fresh blood. Dichotomous activation is assessed as the fraction of reacting basophils. In addition to clinical history, skin prick test, and specific IgE determination, BAT can be a part of the diagnostic evaluation of patients with food-, insect venom-, and drug allergy and chronic urticaria. It may be helpful in determining the clinically relevant allergen. Basophil sensitivity may be used to monitor patients on allergen immunotherapy, anti-IgE treatment or in the natural resolution of allergy. Basophil activation test may use fewer resources and be more reproducible than challenge testing. As it is less stressful for the patient and avoids severe allergic reactions, BAT ought to precede challenge testing. An important next step is to standardize BAT and make it available in diagnostic laboratories. The nature of basophil activation as an ex vivo challenge makes it a multifaceted and promising tool for the allergist. In this EAACI task force position paper, we provide an overview of the practical and technical details as well as the clinical utility of BAT in diagnosis and management of allergic diseases.

Screening of the Open Source Malaria Box Reveals an Early Lead Compound for the Treatment of Alveolar Echinococcosis.

The metacestode (larval) stage of the tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis causes alveolar echinococcosis (AE), a very severe and in many cases incurable disease. To date, benzimidazoles such as albendazole and mebendazole are the only approved chemotherapeutical treatment options. Benzimidazoles inhibit metacestode proliferation, but do not act parasiticidal. Thus, benzimidazoles have to be taken a lifelong, can cause adverse side effects such as hepatotoxicity, and are ineffective in some patients. We here describe a newly developed screening cascade for the evaluation of the in vitro efficacy of new compounds that includes assessment of parasiticidal activity. The Malaria Box from Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), comprised of 400 commercially available chemicals that show in vitro activity against Plasmodium falciparum, was repurposed. Primary screening was carried out at 10 μM by employing the previously described PGI assay, and resulted in the identification of 24 compounds that caused physical damage in metacestodes. Seven out of these 24 drugs were also active at 1 μM. Dose-response assays revealed that only 2 compounds, namely MMV665807 and MMV665794, exhibited an EC50 value below 5 μM. Assessments using human foreskin fibroblasts and Reuber rat hepatoma cells showed that the salicylanilide MMV665807 was less toxic for these two mammalian cell lines than for metacestodes. The parasiticidal activity of MMV665807 was then confirmed using isolated germinal layer cell cultures as well as metacestode vesicles by employing viability assays, and its effect on metacestodes was morphologically evaluated by electron microscopy. However, both oral and intraperitoneal application of MMV665807 to mice experimentally infected with E. multilocularis metacestodes did not result in any reduction of the parasite load.

Identification and characterization of GABA, proline and quaternary ammonium compound transporters from Arabidopsis thaliana

Arabidopsis thaliana grows efficiently on GABA as the sole nitrogen source, thereby providing evidence for the existence of GABA transporters in plants. Heterologous complementation of a GABA uptake-deficient yeast mutant identified two previously known plant amino acid transporters, AAP3 and ProT2, as GABA transporters with Michaelis constants of 12.9±1.7 and 1.7±0.3 mM at pH 4, respectively. The simultaneous transport of [1-14C]GABA and [2,3-3H]proline by ProT2 as a function of pH, provided evidence that the zwitterionic state of GABA is an important parameter in substrate recognition. ProT2-mediated [1-14C]GABA transport was inhibited by proline and quaternary ammonium compounds.