A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Randomized controlled study demonstrating failure of LPV/r monotherapy in HIV: the role of compartment and CD4-nadir

Long-term side-effects and cost of HIV treatment motivate the development of simplified maintenance. Monotherapy with ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r-MT) is the most widely studied strategy. However, efficacy of LPV/r-MT in compartments remains to be shown.

Narcolepsy: autoimmunity, effector T cell activation due to infection, or T cell independent, major histocompatibility complex class II induced neuronal loss?

Human narcolepsy with cataplexy is a neurological disorder, which develops due to a deficiency in hypocretin producing neurons in the hypothalamus. There is a strong association with human leucocyte antigens HLA-DR2 and HLA-DQB1*0602. The disease typically starts in adolescence. Recent developments in narcolepsy research support the hypothesis of narcolepsy being an immune-mediated disease. Narcolepsy is associated with polymorphisms of the genes encoding T cell receptor alpha chain, tumour necrosis factor alpha and tumour necrosis factor receptor II. Moreover the rate of streptococcal infection is increased at onset of narcolepsy. The hallmarks of anti-self reactions in the tissue--namely upregulation of major histocompatibility antigens and lymphocyte infiltrates--are missing in the hypothalamus. These findings are questionable because they were obtained by analyses performed many years after onset of disease. In some patients with narcolepsy autoantibodies to Tribbles homolog 2, which is expressed by hypocretin neurons, have been detected recently. Immune-mediated destruction of hypocretin producing neurons may be mediated by microglia/macrophages that become activated either by autoantigen specific CD4(+) T cells or superantigen stimulated CD8(+) T cells, or independent of T cells by activation of DQB1*0602 signalling. Activation of microglia and macrophages may lead to the release of neurotoxic molecules such as quinolinic acid, which has been shown to cause selective destruction of hypocretin neurons in the hypothalamus.

Biomedical nanoparticles modulate specific CD4+ T cell stimulation by inhibition of antigen processing in dendritic cells

Understanding how nanoparticles may affect immune responses is an essential prerequisite to developing novel clinical applications. To investigate nanoparticle-dependent outcomes on immune responses, dendritic cells (DCs) were treated with model biomedical poly(vinylalcohol)-coated super-paramagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (PVA-SPIONs). PVA-SPIONs uptake by human monocyte-derived DCs (MDDCs) was analyzed by flow cytometry (FACS) and advanced imaging techniques. Viability, activation, function, and stimulatory capacity of MDDCs were assessed by FACS and an in vitro CD4+ T cell assay. PVA-SPION uptake was dose-dependent, decreased by lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced MDDC maturation at higher particle concentrations, and was inhibited by cytochalasin D pre-treatment. PVA-SPIONs did not alter surface marker expression (CD80, CD83, CD86, myeloid/plasmacytoid DC markers) or antigen-uptake, but decreased the capacity of MDDCs to process antigen, stimulate CD4+ T cells, and induce cytokines. The decreased antigen processing and CD4+ T cell stimulation capability of MDDCs following PVA-SPION treatment suggests that MDDCs may revert to a more functionally immature state following particle exposure.

Destruction of lymphoid organ architecture and hepatitis caused by CD4+ T cells

Immune responses have the important function of host defense and protection against pathogens. However, the immune response also causes inflammation and host tissue injury, termed immunopathology. For example, hepatitis B and C virus infection in humans cause immunopathological sequel with destruction of liver cells by the host's own immune response. Similarly, after infection with lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) in mice, the adaptive immune response causes liver cell damage, choriomeningitis and destruction of lymphoid organ architecture. The immunopathological sequel during LCMV infection has been attributed to cytotoxic CD8(+) T cells. However, we now show that during LCMV infection CD4(+) T cells selectively induced the destruction of splenic marginal zone and caused liver cell damage with elevated serum alanin-transferase (ALT) levels. The destruction of the splenic marginal zone by CD4(+) T cells included the reduction of marginal zone B cells, marginal zone macrophages and marginal zone metallophilic macrophages. Functionally, this resulted in an impaired production of neutralizing antibodies against LCMV. Furthermore, CD4(+) T cells reduced B cells with an IgM(high)IgD(low) phenotype (transitional stage 1 and 2, marginal zone B cells), whereas other B cell subtypes such as follicular type 1 and 2 and germinal center/memory B cells were not affected. Adoptive transfer of CD4(+) T cells lacking different important effector cytokines and cytolytic pathways such as IFNγ, TNFα, perforin and Fas-FasL interaction did reveal that these cytolytic pathways are redundant in the induction of immunopathological sequel in spleen. In conclusion, our results define an important role of CD4(+) T cells in the induction of immunopathology in liver and spleen. This includes the CD4(+) T cell mediated destruction of the splenic marginal zone with consecutively impaired protective neutralizing antibody responses.

Tuberculosis in HIV programmes in lower-income countries: practices and risk factors

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a common diagnosis in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART). OBJECTIVE: To describe TB-related practices in ART programmes in lower-income countries and identify risk factors for TB in the first year of ART. METHODS: Programme characteristics were assessed using standardised electronic questionnaire. Patient data from 2003 to 2008 were analysed and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) calculated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Fifteen ART programmes in 12 countries in Africa, South America and Asia were included. Chest X-ray, sputum microscopy and culture were available free of charge in respectively 13 (86.7%), 14 (93.3%) and eight (53.3%) programmes. Eight sites (53.3%) used directly observed treatment and five (33.3%) routinely administered isoniazid preventive treatment (IPT). A total of 19 413 patients aged ≥16 years contributed 13 227 person-years of follow-up; 1081 new TB events were diagnosed. Risk factors included CD4 cell count (>350 cells/μl vs. <25 cells/μl, adjusted IRR 0.46, 95%CI 0.33–0.64, P < 0.0001), sex (women vs. men, adjusted IRR 0.77, 95%CI 0.68–0.88, P = 0.0001) and use of IPT (IRR 0.24, 95%CI 0.19–0.31, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic capacity and practices vary widely across ART programmes. IPT prevented TB, but was used in few programmes. More efforts are needed to reduce the burden of TB in HIV co-infected patients in lower income countries.

All-cause mortality in treated HIV-infected adults with CD4 >=500/mm3 compared with the general population: evidence from a large European observational cohort collaboration{dagger}

Using data from a large European collaborative study, we aimed to identify the circumstances in which treated HIV-infected individuals will experience similar mortality rates to those of the general population.

Tuberculosis in HIV-Negative and HIV-Infected Patients in a Low-Incidence Country: Clinical Characteristics and Treatment Outcomes

Background In Switzerland and other developed countries, the number of tuberculosis (TB) cases has been decreasing for decades, but HIV-infected patients and migrants remain risk groups. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics of TB in HIV-negative and HIV-infected patients diagnosed in Switzerland, and between coinfected patients enrolled and not enrolled in the national Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Methods and Findings All patients diagnosed with culture-confirmed TB in the SHCS and a random sample of culture-confirmed cases reported to the national TB registry 2000–2008 were included. Outcomes were assessed in HIV-infected patients and considered successful in case of cure or treatment completion. Ninety-three SHCS patients and 288 patients selected randomly from 4221 registered patients were analyzed. The registry sample included 10 (3.5%) coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS: the estimated number of HIV-infected patients not enrolled in the SHCS but reported to the registry 2000–2008 was 146 (95% CI 122–173). Coinfected patients were more likely to be from sub-Saharan Africa (51.5% versus 15.8%, P<0.0001) and to present disseminated disease (23.9% vs. 3.4%, P<0.0001) than HIV-negative patients. Coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS were asylum seekers or migrant workers, with lower CD4 cell counts at TB diagnosis (median CD4 count 79 cells/µL compared to 149 cells/µL among SHCS patients, P = 0.07). There were 6 patients (60.0%) with successful outcomes compared to 82 (88.2%) patients in the SHCS (P = 0.023). Conclusions The clinical presentation of coinfected patients differed from HIV-negative TB patients. The number of HIV-infected patients diagnosed with TB outside the SHCS is similar to the number diagnosed within the cohort but outcomes are poorer in patients not followed up in the national cohort. Special efforts are required to address the needs of this vulnerable population.

Viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy, cohort viral load and HIV transmission in Southern Africa: A mathematical modelling analysis

In low-income settings, treatment failure is often identified using CD4 cell count monitoring. Consequently, patients remain on a failing regimen, resulting in a higher risk of transmission. We investigated the benefit of routine viral load monitoring for reducing HIV transmission.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Accuracy of immunological criteria for identifying virological failure in children on antiretroviral therapy - The IeDEA Southern Africa Collaboration

Objectives  To determine the diagnostic accuracy of World Health Organization (WHO) 2010 and 2006 as well as United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) 2008 definitions of immunological failure for identifying virological failure (VF) in children on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods  Analysis of data from children (<16 years at ART initiation) at South African ART sites at which CD4 count/per cent and HIV-RNA monitoring are performed 6-monthly. Incomplete virological suppression (IVS) was defined as failure to achieve ≥1 HIV-RNA ≤400 copies/ml between 6 and 15 months on ART and viral rebound (VR) as confirmed HIV-RNA ≥5000 copies/ml in a child on ART for ≥18 months who had achieved suppression during the first year on treatment. Results  Among 3115 children [median (interquartile range) age 48 (20-84) months at ART initiation] on treatment for ≥1 year, sensitivity of immunological criteria for IVS was 10%, 6% and 26% for WHO 2006, WHO 2010 and DHHS 2008 criteria, respectively. The corresponding positive predictive values (PPV) were 31%, 20% and 20%. Diagnostic accuracy for VR was determined in 2513 children with ≥18 months of follow-up and virological suppression during the first year on ART with sensitivity of 5% (WHO 2006/2010) and 27% (DHHS 2008). PPV results were 42% (WHO 2010), 43% (WHO 2006) and 20% (DHHS 2008). Conclusion  Current immunological criteria are unable to correctly identify children failing ART virologically. Improved access to viral load testing is needed to reliably identify VF in children.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment in programmes with and without routine viral load monitoring in Southern Africa

Objectives: To compare outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, where viral load monitoring is routine, with those in Malawi and Zambia, where monitoring is based on CD4 cell counts. Methods: We included 18 706 adult patients starting ART in South Africa and 80 937 patients in Zambia or Malawi. We examined CD4 responses in models for repeated measures and the probability of switching to second-line regimens, mortality and loss to follow-up in multistate models, measuring time from 6 months. Results: In South Africa, 9.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.1–10.5] had switched at 3 years, 1.3% (95% CI 0.9–1.6) remained on failing first-line regimens, 9.2% (95% CI 8.5–9.8) were lost to follow-up and 4.3% (95% CI 3.9–4.8) had died. In Malawi and Zambia, more patients were on a failing first-line regimen [3.7% (95% CI 3.6–3.9], fewer patients had switched [2.1% (95% CI 2.0–2.3)] and more patients were lost to follow-up [15.3% (95% CI 15.0–15.6)] or had died [6.3% (95% CI 6.0–6.5)]. Median CD4 cell counts were lower in South Africa at the start of ART (93 vs. 132 cells/μl; P < 0.001) but higher after 3 years (425 vs. 383 cells/μl; P < 0.001). The hazard ratio comparing South Africa with Malawi and Zambia after adjusting for age, sex, first-line regimen and CD4 cell count was 0.58 (0.50–0.66) for death and 0.53 (0.48–0.58) for loss to follow-up. Conclusion: Over 3 years of ART mortality was lower in South Africa than in Malawi or Zambia. The more favourable outcome in South Africa might be explained by viral load monitoring leading to earlier detection of treatment failure, adherence counselling and timelier switching to second-line ART.

Time to initiation of antiretroviral therapy among patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis in Cape Town, South Africa

We studied the time interval between starting tuberculosis treatment and commencing antiretroviral treatment (ART) in HIV-infected patients (n = 1433; median CD4 count 71 cells per microliter, interquartile range: 32-132) attending 3 South African township ART services between 2002 and 2008. The overall median delay was 2.66 months (interquartile range: 1.58-4.17). In adjusted analyses, delays varied between treatment sites but were shorter for patients with lower CD4 counts and those treated in more recent calendar years. During the most recent period (2007-2008), 4.7%, 19.7%, and 51.1% of patients started ART within 2, 4, and 8 weeks of tuberculosis treatment, respectively. Operational barriers must be tackled to permit further acceleration of ART initiation as recommended by 2010 WHO ART guidelines.