Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Dynamic Intraligamentary Stabilization (DIS) for treatment of acute anterior cruciate ligament ruptures: case series experience of the first three years.

BACKGROUND In recent years, the scientific discussion has focused on new strategies to enable a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) to heal into mechanically stable scar tissue. Dynamic intraligamentary stabilization (DIS) was first performed in a pilot study of 10 patients. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate whether DIS would lead to similarly sufficient stability and good clinical function in a larger case series. METHODS Acute ACL ruptures were treated by using an internal stabilizer, combined with anatomical repositioning of torn bundles and microfracturing to promote self-healing. Clinical assessment (Tegner, Lysholm, IKDC, and visual analogue scale [VAS] for patient satisfaction scores) and assessment of knee laxity was performed at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. A one-sample design with a non-inferiority margin was chosen to compare the preoperative and postoperative IKDS and Lysholm scores. RESULTS 278 patients with a 6:4 male to female ratio were included. Average patient age was 31 years. Preoperative mean IKDC, Lysholm, and Tegner scores were 98.8, 99.3, and 5.1 points, respectively. The mean anteroposterior (AP) translation difference from the healthy contralateral knee was 4.7 mm preoperatively. After DIS treatment, the mean 12-month IKDC, Lysholm, and Tegner scores were 93.6, 96.2, and 4.9 points, respectively, and the mean AP translation difference was 2.3 mm. All these outcomes were significantly non-inferior to the preoperative or healthy contralateral values (p < 0.0001). Mean patient satisfaction was 8.8 (VAS 0-10). Eight ACL reruptures occurred and 3 patients reported insufficient subjective stability of the knee at the end of the study period. CONCLUSIONS Anatomical repositioning, along with DIS and microfracturing, leads to clinically stable healing of the torn ACL in the large majority of patients. Most patients exhibited almost normal knee function, reported excellent satisfaction, and were able to return to their previous levels of sporting activity. Moreover, this strategy resulted in stable healing of all sutured menisci, which could lower the rate of osteoarthritic changes in future. The present findings support the discussion of a new paradigm in ACL treatment based on preservation and self-healing of the torn ligament.