Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? METHODS Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population <75 years old by sex for the following groups of cancer deaths: (1) avoidable through primary prevention; (2) avoidable through early detection and treatment; (3) avoidable through improved treatment and medical care; and (4) remaining cancer deaths. To assess time trends in ASMRs, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. RESULTS In Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons <75 years old continuously decreased 1996-2010. Avoidable cancer mortality decreased in all groups of avoidable cancer deaths in both sexes, with one exception. ASMRs for causes avoidable through primary prevention increased in females in all countries (in Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. CONCLUSION Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

Attributing trends in extremely hot days to changes in atmospheric dynamics

This paper presents a method for attributing regional trends in the frequency of extremely hot days (EHDs) to changes in the frequency of the atmospheric patterns that characterize such extraordinary events. The study is applied to mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands for the extended summers of the period 1958–2008, where significant and positive trends in maximum temperature (Tx) have been reported during the second half of the past century. First, the study area was split into eight regions attending to their different temporal variability of the daily Tx series obtained from the Spain02 gridded data set using a clustering procedure. Second, the large-scale atmospheric situations causing EHDs are defined by circulation types (CTs). The obtainment of the CTs differs from the majority of CT classifications proposed in the literature. It is based on regional series and on a previous characterization of the main atmospheric situations obtained using only some days classified as extremes in the different regions. Three different atmospheric fields (SLP, T850, and Z500) from ECMWF reanalysis and analysis data and combinations of them (SLP–T850, SLP–Z500, and T850–Z500) are used to produce six different CT classifications. Subsequently, links between EHD occurrence in the different regions and CT for all days have been established. Finally, a simple model to relate the trends in EHDsfor each region to the changes in the CT frequency appearance has been formulated. Most regions present positive and significant trends in the occurrence of EHDs. The CT classifications using two variables perform better. In particular, SLP–T850 is the best for characterizing the atmospheric situations leading to EHD occurrences for most of the regions. Only a small number of CTs have significant trends in their frequency and are associated with high efficiency causing EHD occurrences in most regions simultaneously, especially in the northern and central regions. Attribution results show that changes in circulation can only explain some part of the regional EHD trends. The percentage of the trend attributable to changes in atmospheric dynamics varies from 15 to 50 %, depends on the region and is sensitive to the selected large-scale variables.

Temporal trends in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome, sepsis, and medical coding of sepsis.

BACKGROUND Recent reports using administrative claims data suggest the incidence of community- and hospital-onset sepsis is increasing. Whether this reflects changing epidemiology, more effective diagnostic methods, or changes in physician documentation and medical coding practices is unclear. METHODS We performed a temporal-trend study from 2008 to 2012 using administrative claims data and patient-level clinical data of adult patients admitted to Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri. Temporal-trend and annual percent change were estimated using regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average errors. RESULTS We analyzed 62,261 inpatient admissions during the 5-year study period. 'Any SIRS' (i.e., SIRS on a single calendar day during the hospitalization) and 'multi-day SIRS' (i.e., SIRS on 3 or more calendar days), which both use patient-level data, and medical coding for sepsis (i.e., ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis codes 995.91, 995.92, or 785.52) were present in 35.3 %, 17.3 %, and 3.3 % of admissions, respectively. The incidence of admissions coded for sepsis increased 9.7 % (95 % CI: 6.1, 13.4) per year, while the patient data-defined events of 'any SIRS' decreased by 1.8 % (95 % CI: -3.2, -0.5) and 'multi-day SIRS' did not change significantly over the study period. Clinically-defined sepsis (defined as SIRS plus bacteremia) and severe sepsis (defined as SIRS plus hypotension and bacteremia) decreased at statistically significant rates of 5.7 % (95 % CI: -9.0, -2.4) and 8.6 % (95 % CI: -4.4, -12.6) annually. All-cause mortality, SIRS mortality, and SIRS and clinically-defined sepsis case fatality did not change significantly during the study period. Sepsis mortality, based on ICD-9-CM codes, however, increased by 8.8 % (95 % CI: 1.9, 16.2) annually. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of sepsis, defined by ICD-9-CM codes, and sepsis mortality increased steadily without a concomitant increase in SIRS or clinically-defined sepsis. Our results highlight the need to develop strategies to integrate clinical patient-level data with administrative data to draw more accurate conclusions about the epidemiology of sepsis.

Trends in incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancer according to morphology and anatomical location, in Switzerland 1982-2011.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY/PRINCIPLES This study aimed to evaluate trends in the incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancer by anatomical location and histology using nationally representative Swiss data. METHODS We included all oesophageal and gastric cancers recorded in 10 Swiss population-based cancer registries 1982-2011. We calculated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 person-years (PY) (European standard) for both cancer sites stratified by sex, language region (German, French-Italian), morphology and anatomical location. To assess time trends, we estimated annual percentage changes (APCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS ASIR of oesophageal adenocarcinoma increased in both sexes and language regions (p <0.001). The steepest increase occurred in males of the German-speaking region (APC 6.8%, 95% CI 5.8-7.8) with ASIRs of 0.8 per 100,000 PY in 1982-1987 and 3.9 per 100.000 PY in 2007-2011. Incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma decreased significantly in males of both language regions by around -1.5% per year. In contrast, a slight but significant increase (APC 1.4%, 95% CI 0.3-2.4]) of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma was observed in females of the German-speaking region. We observed stable rates for cancer of the gastric cardia. The incidence of noncardia gastric cancer decreased substantially in both sexes and language regions (p <0.001). CONCLUSION In Switzerland, the incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has risen whereas incidence of noncardia gastric cancer has decreased substantially as observed in other developed countries.

Trends in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ

BACKGROUND Impact of contemporary treatment of pre-invasive breast cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ [DCIS]) on long-term outcomes remains poorly defined. We aimed to evaluate national treatment trends for DCIS and to determine their impact on disease-specific (DSS) and overall survival (OS). METHODS The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry was queried for patients diagnosed with DCIS from 1991 to 2010. Treatment pattern trends were analyzed using Cochran-Armitage trend test. Survival analyses were performed using inverse probability weights (IPW)-adjusted competing risk analyses for DSS and Cox proportional hazard regression for OS. All tests performed were two-sided. RESULTS One hundred twenty-one thousand and eighty DCIS patients were identified. The greatest proportion of patients was treated with lumpectomy and radiation therapy (43.0%), followed by lumpectomy alone (26.5%) and unilateral (23.8%) or bilateral mastectomy (4.5%) with significant shifts over time. The rate of sentinel lymph node biopsy increased from 9.7% to 67.1% for mastectomy and from 1.4% to 17.8% for lumpectomy. Compared with mastectomy, OS was higher for lumpectomy with radiation (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76 to 0.83, P < .001) and lower for lumpectomy alone (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.23, P < .001). IPW-adjusted ten-year DSS was highest in lumpectomy with XRT (98.9%), followed by mastectomy (98.5%), and lumpectomy alone (98.4%). CONCLUSIONS We identified substantial shifts in treatment patterns for DCIS from 1991 to 2010. When outcomes between locoregional treatment options were compared, we observed greater differences in OS than DSS, likely reflecting both a prevailing patient selection bias as well as clinically negligible differences in breast cancer outcomes between groups.

Trends in Phonetics and Phonology

This volume was inspired by the 9th edition of the Phonetik and Phonologie conference, held in Zürich in October 2013. It includes state of the art research on phonetics and phonology in various languages and from interdisciplinary contributors. The volume is structured into the following eight sections: segmentals, suprasegmentals, articulation in spoken and sign language, perception, phonology, crowdsourcing phonetic data, second language speech, and arts (with inevitable overlap between these areas).

A picture of trends in Aujeszky's disease virus exposure in wild boar in the Swiss and European contexts.

BACKGROUND In parallel to the increase of wild boar abundance in the past decades, an increase of exposure to the Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) has been reported in wild boar in several parts of Europe. Since high animal densities have been proposed to be one of the major factors influencing ADV seroprevalence in wild boar populations and wild boar abundance has increased in Switzerland, too, a re-evaluation of the ADV status was required in wild boar in Switzerland. We tested wild boar sera collected from 2008-2013 with a commercial ELISA for antibodies against ADV. To set our data in the European context, we reviewed scientific publications on ADV serosurveys in Europe for two time periods (1995-2007 and 2008-2014). RESULTS Seven out of 1,228 wild boar sera were positive for antibodies against ADV, resulting in an estimated seroprevalence of 0.57% (95% confidence interval CI: 0.32-0.96%). This is significantly lower than the prevalence of a previous survey in 2004-2005. The literature review revealed that high to very high ADV seroprevalences are reported from Mediterranean and Central-eastern countries. By contrast, an "island" of low to medium seroprevalences is observed in the centre of Europe with few isolated foci of high seroprevalences. We were unable to identify a general temporal trend of ADV seroprevalence at European scale. CONCLUSIONS The seroprevalence of ADV in wild boar in Switzerland belongs among the lowest documented in Europe. Considering the disparity of seroprevalences in wild boar in Europe, the fact that seroprevalences in Switzerland and other countries have decreased despite increasing wild boar densities and the knowledge that stress leads to the reactivation of latent ADV with subsequent excretion and transmission, we hypothesize that not only animal density but a range of factors leading to stress - such as management - might play a crucial role in the dynamics of ADV infections.

Trends in mean and extreme precipitation in the Mount Kenya region from observations and reanalyses

Land and water management in semi-arid regions requires detailed information on precipitation distribution, including extremes, and changes therein. Such information is often lacking. This paper describes statistics of mean and extreme precipitation in a unique data set from the Mount Kenya region, encompassing around 50 stations with at least 30 years of data. We describe the data set, including quality control procedures and statistical break detection. Trends in mean precipitation and extreme indices calculated from these data for individual rainy seasons are compared with corresponding trends in reanalysis products. From 1979 to 2011, mean precipitation decreased at 75% of the stations during the ‘long rains’ (March to May) and increased at 70% of the stations during the ‘short rains’ (October to December). Corresponding trends are found in the number of heavy precipitation days, and maximum of consecutive 5-day precipitation. Conversely, an increase in consecutive dry days within both main rainy seasons is found. However, trends are only statistically significant in very few cases. Reanalysis data sets agree with observations with respect to interannual variability, while correlations are considerably lower for monthly deviations (ratios) from the mean annual cycle. While some products well reproduce the rainfall climatology and some the spatial trend pattern, no product reproduces both.

Trends in life expectancy of HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy across the globe: comparisons with general population.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW Improved virological and immunological outcomes and reduced toxicity of antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) raise the hope that life expectancy of HIV-positive persons on ART will approach that of the general population. We systematically review the literature and summarize published estimates of life expectancy of HIV-positive populations on ART. We compare their life expectancy with the life expectancy of the general or, in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV-negative populations, by time period and gender. RECENT FINDINGS Ten relevant studies were published from 2006 to 2015. Three studies were from Canada, two from European countries, three from sub-Saharan Africa and two were multicountry studies. Life expectancy increased over time in all studies and regions. Expressed as the percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population, estimated life expectancy at age 20 years in HIV-positive people on ART ranged from 60.3% (95% CI 58.0-62.6%) in Rwanda (2008-2011) to 89.1% (95% CI 84.7-93.6%) in Canada (2008-2012). The percentage of life expectancy in the HIV-negative or general population achieved was higher in HIV-positive women than in HIV-positive men in all countries, except for Canada wherein the opposite was the case. SUMMARY Life expectancy in HIV-positive people on ART has improved worldwide in recent years, but important gaps remain compared with the general and HIV-negative population, and between regions and genders.

Trends in incidences and risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma and other liver events in HIV and hepatitis C virus co-infected individuals from 2001 to 2014: a multi-cohort study.

BACKGROUND  While liver-related deaths in HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infected individuals have declined over the last decade, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may have increased. We described the epidemiology of HCC and other liver events in a multi-cohort collaboration of HIV/HCV co-infected individuals. METHODS  We studied all HCV antibody-positive adults with HIV in the EuroSIDA Study, the Southern Alberta Clinic Cohort, the Canadian Co-infection Cohort, and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 2001 to 2014. We calculated the incidence of HCC and other liver events (defined as liver-related deaths or decompensations, excluding HCC) and used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios. RESULTS  Our study comprised 7,229 HIV/HCV co-infected individuals (68% male, 90% white). During follow-up, 72 cases of HCC and 375 other liver events occurred, yielding incidence rates of 1.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3, 2.0) and 8.6 (95% CI: 7.8, 9.5) cases per 1,000 person-years of follow-up, respectively. The rate of HCC increased 11% per calendar year (95% CI: 4%, 19%) and decreased 4% for other liver events (95% CI: 2%, 7%), but only the latter remained statistically significant after adjustment for potential confounders. High age, cirrhosis, and low current CD4 cell count were associated with a higher incidence of both HCC and other liver events. CONCLUSIONS  In HIV/HCV co-infected individuals, the crude incidence of HCC increased from 2001 to 2014, while other liver events declined. Individuals with cirrhosis or low current CD4 cell count are at highest risk of developing HCC or other liver events.