Corrected kriging update formulae for batch-sequential data assimilation

Recently, a lot of effort has been spent in the efficient computation of kriging predictors when observations are assimilated sequentially. In particular, kriging update formulae enabling significant computational savings were derived. Taking advantage of the previous kriging mean and variance computations helps avoiding a costly matrix inversion when adding one observation to the TeX already available ones. In addition to traditional update formulae taking into account a single new observation, Emery (2009) proposed formulae for the batch-sequential case, i.e. when TeX new observations are simultaneously assimilated. However, the kriging variance and covariance formulae given in Emery (2009) for the batch-sequential case are not correct. In this paper, we fix this issue and establish correct expressions for updated kriging variances and covariances when assimilating observations in parallel. An application in sequential conditional simulation finally shows that coupling update and residual substitution approaches may enable significant speed-ups.

The free escape continuum of diffuse ions upstream of the Earth's quasi-parallel bow shock

The Earth's bow shock is very efficient in accelerating ions out of the incident solar wind distribution to high energies (≈ 200 keV/e). Fluxes of energetic ions accelerated at the quasi-parallel bow shock, also known as diffuse ions, are best represented by exponential spectra in energy/charge, which require additional assumptions to be incorporated into these model spectra. One of these assumptions is a so-called "free escape boundary" along the interplanetary magnetic field into the upstream direction. Locations along the IBEX orbit are ideally suited for in situ measurements to investigate the existence of an upstream free escape boundary for bow shock accelerated ions. In this study we use 2 years of ion measurements from the background monitor on the IBEX spacecraft, supported by ACE solar wind observations. The IBEX Background Monitor is sensitive to protons > 14 keV, which includes the energy of the maximum flux for diffuse ions. With increasing distance from the bow shock along the interplanetary magnetic field, the count rates for diffuse ions stay constant for ions streaming away from the bow shock, while count rates for diffuse ions streaming toward the shock gradually decrease from a maximum value to ~1/e at distances of about 10 RE to 14 RE. These observations of a gradual decrease support the transition to a free escape continuum for ions of energy >14 keV at distances from 10 RE to 14 RE from the bow shock.

Adaptive plasticity and genetic divergence in feeding efficiency during parallel adaptive radiation of whitefish (Coregonus spp.)

Parallel phenotypic divergence in replicated adaptive radiations could either result from parallel genetic divergence in response to similar divergent selec- tion regimes or from equivalent phenotypically plastic response to the repeated occurrence of contrasting environments. In post-glacial fish, repli- cated divergence in phenotypes along the benthic-limnetic habitat axis is commonly observed. Here, we use two benthic-limnetic species pairs of whitefish from two Swiss lakes, raised in a common garden design, with reciprocal food treatments in one species pair, to experimentally measure whether feeding efficiency on benthic prey has a genetic basis or whether it underlies phenotypic plasticity (or both). To do so, we offered experimental fish mosquito larvae, partially burried in sand, and measured multiple feed- ing efficiency variables. Our results reveal both, genetic divergence as well as phenotypically plastic divergence in feeding efficiency, with the pheno- typically benthic species raised on benthic food being the most efficient forager on benthic prey. This indicates that both, divergent natural selection on genetically heritable traits and adaptive phenotypic plasticity, are likely important mechanisms driving phenotypic divergence in adaptive radiation.

Treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis with ambrisentan: a parallel, randomized trial

BACKGROUND Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by formation and proliferation of fibroblast foci. Endothelin-1 induces lung fibroblast proliferation and contractile activity via the endothelin A (ETA) receptor. OBJECTIVE To determine whether ambrisentan, an ETA receptor-selective antagonist, reduces the rate of IPF progression. DESIGN Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, event-driven trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00768300). SETTING Academic and private hospitals. PARTICIPANTS Patients with IPF aged 40 to 80 years with minimal or no honeycombing on high-resolution computed tomography scans. INTERVENTION Ambrisentan, 10 mg/d, or placebo. MEASUREMENTS Time to disease progression, defined as death, respiratory hospitalization, or a categorical decrease in lung function. RESULTS The study was terminated after enrollment of 492 patients (75% of intended enrollment; mean duration of exposure to study medication, 34.7 weeks) because an interim analysis indicated a low likelihood of showing efficacy for the end point by the scheduled end of the study. Ambrisentan-treated patients were more likely to meet the prespecified criteria for disease progression (90 [27.4%] vs. 28 [17.2%] patients; P = 0.010; hazard ratio, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.14 to 2.66]). Lung function decline was seen in 55 (16.7%) ambrisentan-treated patients and 19 (11.7%) placebo-treated patients (P = 0.109). Respiratory hospitalizations were seen in 44 (13.4%) and 9 (5.5%) patients in the ambrisentan and placebo groups, respectively (P = 0.007). Twenty-six (7.9%) patients who received ambrisentan and 6 (3.7%) who received placebo died (P = 0.100). Thirty-two (10%) ambrisentan-treated patients and 16 (10%) placebo-treated patients had pulmonary hypertension at baseline, and analysis stratified by the presence of pulmonary hypertension revealed similar results for the primary end point. LIMITATION The study was terminated early. CONCLUSION Ambrisentan was not effective in treating IPF and may be associated with an increased risk for disease progression and respiratory hospitalizations. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Gilead Sciences.

Three-dimensional, task-specific robot therapy of the arm after stroke: a multicentre, parallel-group randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Arm hemiparesis secondary to stroke is common and disabling. We aimed to assess whether robotic training of an affected arm with ARMin--an exoskeleton robot that allows task-specific training in three dimensions-reduces motor impairment more effectively than does conventional therapy. METHODS: In a prospective, multicentre, parallel-group randomised trial, we enrolled patients who had had motor impairment for more than 6 months and moderate-to-severe arm paresis after a cerebrovascular accident who met our eligibility criteria from four centres in Switzerland. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive robotic or conventional therapy using a centre-stratified randomisation procedure. For both groups, therapy was given for at least 45 min three times a week for 8 weeks (total 24 sessions). The primary outcome was change in score on the arm (upper extremity) section of the Fugl-Meyer assessment (FMA-UE). Assessors tested patients immediately before therapy, after 4 weeks of therapy, at the end of therapy, and 16 weeks and 34 weeks after start of therapy. Assessors were masked to treatment allocation, but patients, therapists, and data analysts were unmasked. Analyses were by modified intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00719433. FINDINGS: Between May 4, 2009, and Sept 3, 2012, 143 individuals were tested for eligibility, of whom 77 were eligible and agreed to participate. 38 patients assigned to robotic therapy and 35 assigned to conventional therapy were included in analyses. Patients assigned to robotic therapy had significantly greater improvements in motor function in the affected arm over the course of the study as measured by FMA-UE than did those assigned to conventional therapy (F=4.1, p=0.041; mean difference in score 0.78 points, 95% CI 0.03-1.53). No serious adverse events related to the study occurred. INTERPRETATION: Neurorehabilitation therapy including task-oriented training with an exoskeleton robot can enhance improvement of motor function in a chronically impaired paretic arm after stroke more effectively than conventional therapy. However, the absolute difference between effects of robotic and conventional therapy in our study was small and of weak significance, which leaves the clinical relevance in question.

Less structured movement patterns predict severity of positive syndrome, excitement, and disorganization

Disorganized behavior is a key symptom of schizophrenia. The objective assessment of disorganized behavior is particularly challenging. Actigraphy has enabled the objective assessment of motor behavior in various settings. Reduced motor activity was associated with negative syndrome scores, but simple motor activity analyses were not informative on other symptom dimensions. The analysis of movement patterns, however, could be more informative for assessing schizophrenia symptom dimensions. Here, we use time series analyses on actigraphic data of 100 schizophrenia spectrum disorder patients. Actigraphy recording intervals were set at 2 s. Data from 2 defined 60-min periods were analyzed, and partial autocorrelations of the actigraphy time series indicated predictability of movements in each individual. Increased positive syndrome scores were associated with reduced predictability of movements but not with the overall amount of movement. Negative syndrome scores were associated with low activity levels but unrelated with predictability of movement. The factors disorganization and excitement were related to movement predictability but emotional distress was not. Thus, the predictability of objectively assessed motor behavior may be a marker of positive symptoms and disorganized behavior. This behavior could become relevant for translational research.

Divergent selection during speciation of Lake Malawi cichlid fishes inferred from parallel radiations in nuptial coloration

Repeated evolution of the same phenotypic difference during independent episodes of speciation is strong evidence for selection during speciation. More than 1,000 species of cichlids, >10% of the world's freshwater fish species, have arisen within the past million years in Lakes Malawi and Victoria in eastern Africa. Many pairs of closely related sympatric species differ in their nuptial coloration in very similar ways. Nuptial coloration is important in their mate choice, and speciation by sexual selection on genetically or ecologically constrained variation in nuptial coloration had been proposed, which would repeatedly produce similar nuptial types in different populations, a prediction that was difficult to test in the absence of population-level phylogenies. We measured genetic similarity between individuals within and between populations, species, and lake regions by typing 59 individuals at >2,000 polymorphic genetic loci. From these data, we reconstructed, to our knowledge, the first larger species level phylogeny for the most diverse group of Lake Malawi cichlids. We used the genetic and phylogenetic data to test the divergent selection scenario against colonization, character displacement, and hybridization scenarios that could also explain diverse communities. Diversity has arisen by replicated radiations into the same color types, resulting in phenotypically very different, yet closely related, species within and phenotypically highly similar yet unrelated sets of species between regions, which is consistent with divergent selection during speciation and is inconsistent with colonization and character displacement models.

Development, implementation, and evaluation of a structured reporting web tool for abdominal aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND The majority of radiological reports are lacking a standard structure. Even within a specialized area of radiology, each report has its individual structure with regards to details and order, often containing too much of non-relevant information the referring physician is not interested in. For gathering relevant clinical key parameters in an efficient way or to support long-term therapy monitoring, structured reporting might be advantageous. OBJECTIVE Despite of new technologies in medical information systems, medical reporting is still not dynamic. To improve the quality of communication in radiology reports, a new structured reporting system was developed for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), intended to enhance professional communication by providing the pertinent clinical information in a predefined standard. METHODS Actual state analysis was performed within the departments of radiology and vascular surgery by developing a Technology Acceptance Model. The SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis focused on optimization of the radiology reporting of patients with AAA. Definition of clinical parameters was achieved by interviewing experienced clinicians in radiology and vascular surgery. For evaluation, a focus group (4 radiologists) looked at the reports of 16 patients. The usability and reliability of the method was validated in a real-world test environment in the field of radiology. RESULTS A Web-based application for radiological "structured reporting" (SR) was successfully standardized for AAA. Its organization comprises three main categories: characteristics of pathology and adjacent anatomy, measurements, and additional findings. Using different graphical widgets (eg, drop-down menus) in each category facilitate predefined data entries. Measurement parameters shown in a diagram can be defined for clinical monitoring and be adducted for quick adjudications. Figures for optional use to guide and standardize the reporting are embedded. Analysis of variance shows decreased average time required with SR to obtain a radiological report compared to free-text reporting (P=.0001). Questionnaire responses confirm a high acceptance rate by the user. CONCLUSIONS The new SR system may support efficient radiological reporting for initial diagnosis and follow-up for AAA. Perceived advantages of our SR platform are ease of use, which may lead to more accurate decision support. The new system is open to communicate not only with clinical partners but also with Radiology Information and Hospital Information Systems.