Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Effect of Health Risk Assessment and Counselling on Health Behaviour and Survival in Older People: A Pragmatic Randomised Trial.

BACKGROUND Potentially avoidable risk factors continue to cause unnecessary disability and premature death in older people. Health risk assessment (HRA), a method successfully used in working-age populations, is a promising method for cost-effective health promotion and preventive care in older individuals, but the long-term effects of this approach are unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of an innovative approach to HRA and counselling in older individuals for health behaviours, preventive care, and long-term survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS This study was a pragmatic, single-centre randomised controlled clinical trial in community-dwelling individuals aged 65 y or older registered with one of 19 primary care physician (PCP) practices in a mixed rural and urban area in Switzerland. From November 2000 to January 2002, 874 participants were randomly allocated to the intervention and 1,410 to usual care. The intervention consisted of HRA based on self-administered questionnaires and individualised computer-generated feedback reports, combined with nurse and PCP counselling over a 2-y period. Primary outcomes were health behaviours and preventive care use at 2 y and all-cause mortality at 8 y. At baseline, participants in the intervention group had a mean ± standard deviation of 6.9 ± 3.7 risk factors (including unfavourable health behaviours, health and functional impairments, and social risk factors) and 4.3 ± 1.8 deficits in recommended preventive care. At 2 y, favourable health behaviours and use of preventive care were more frequent in the intervention than in the control group (based on z-statistics from generalised estimating equation models). For example, 70% compared to 62% were physically active (odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.16-1.77, p = 0.001), and 66% compared to 59% had influenza vaccinations in the past year (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66, p = 0.005). At 8 y, based on an intention-to-treat analysis, the estimated proportion alive was 77.9% in the intervention and 72.8% in the control group, for an absolute mortality difference of 4.9% (95% CI 1.3%-8.5%, p = 0.009; based on z-test for risk difference). The hazard ratio of death comparing intervention with control was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94, p = 0.009; based on Wald test from Cox regression model), and the number needed to receive the intervention to prevent one death was 21 (95% CI 12-79). The main limitations of the study include the single-site study design, the use of a brief self-administered questionnaire for 2-y outcome data collection, the unavailability of other long-term outcome data (e.g., functional status, nursing home admissions), and the availability of long-term follow-up data on mortality for analysis only in 2014. CONCLUSIONS This is the first trial to our knowledge demonstrating that a collaborative care model of HRA in community-dwelling older people not only results in better health behaviours and increased use of recommended preventive care interventions, but also improves survival. The intervention tested in our study may serve as a model of how to implement a relatively low-cost but effective programme of disease prevention and health promotion in older individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 28458424.

Full correction for spatially distributed speed-of-sound in echo ultrasound based on measuring aberration delays via transmit beam steering

Aberrations of the acoustic wave front, caused by spatial variations of the speed-of-sound, are a main limiting factor to the diagnostic power of medical ultrasound imaging. If not accounted for, aberrations result in low resolution and increased side lobe level, over all reducing contrast in deep tissue imaging. Various techniques have been proposed for quantifying aberrations by analysing the arrival time of coherent echoes from so-called guide stars or beacons. In situations where a guide star is missing, aperture-based techniques may give ambiguous results. Moreover, they are conceptually focused on aberrators that can be approximated as a phase screen in front of the probe. We propose a novel technique, where the effect of aberration is detected in the reconstructed image as opposed to the aperture data. The varying local echo phase when changing the transmit beam steering angle directly reflects the varying arrival time of the transmit wave front. This allows sensing the angle-dependent aberration delay in a spatially resolved way, and thus aberration correction for a spatially distributed volume aberrator. In phantoms containing a cylindrical aberrator, we achieved location-independent diffraction-limited resolution as well as accurate display of echo location based on reconstructing the speed-of-sound spatially resolved. First successful volunteer results confirm the clinical potential of the proposed technique.

Real-time computer-based visual feedback improves visual acuity in downbeat nystagmus - a pilot study.

BACKGROUND Patients with downbeat nystagmus syndrome suffer from oscillopsia, which leads to an unstable visual perception and therefore impaired visual acuity. The aim of this study was to use real-time computer-based visual feedback to compensate for the destabilizing slow phase eye movements. METHODS The patients were sitting in front of a computer screen with the head fixed on a chin rest. The eye movements were recorded by an eye tracking system (EyeSeeCam®). We tested the visual acuity with a fixed Landolt C (static) and during real-time feedback driven condition (dynamic) in gaze straight ahead and (20°) sideward gaze. In the dynamic condition, the Landolt C moved according to the slow phase eye velocity of the downbeat nystagmus. The Shapiro-Wilk test was used to test for normal distribution and one-way ANOVA for comparison. RESULTS Ten patients with downbeat nystagmus were included in the study. Median age was 76 years and the median duration of symptoms was 6.3 years (SD +/- 3.1y). The mean slow phase velocity was moderate during gaze straight ahead (1.44°/s, SD +/- 1.18°/s) and increased significantly in sideward gaze (mean left 3.36°/s; right 3.58°/s). In gaze straight ahead, we found no difference between the static and feedback driven condition. In sideward gaze, visual acuity improved in five out of ten subjects during the feedback-driven condition (p = 0.043). CONCLUSIONS This study provides proof of concept that non-invasive real-time computer-based visual feedback compensates for the SPV in DBN. Therefore, real-time visual feedback may be a promising aid for patients suffering from oscillopsia and impaired text reading on screen. Recent technological advances in the area of virtual reality displays might soon render this approach feasible in fully mobile settings.

Palynostratigraphy of the last centuries in Switzerland based on 23 lake and mire deposits: chronostratigraphic pollen markers, regional patterns, and local histories

A total of 23 pollen diagrams [stored in the Alpine Palynological Data-Base (ALPADABA), Geobotanical Institute, Bern] cover the last 100 to over 1000 years. The sites include 15 lakes, seven mires, and one soil profile distributed in the Jura Mts (three sites), Swiss Plateau (two sites), northern Pre-Alps and Alps (six sites), central Alps (five sites), southern Alps (three sites), and southern Pre-Alps (four sites) in the western and southern part of Switzerland or just outside the national borders. The pollen diagrams have both a high taxonomic resolution and a high temporal resolution, with sampling distances of 0.5–3 cm, equivalent to 1 to 11 years for the last 100 years and 8 to 130 years for earlier periods. The chronology is based on absolute dating (14 sites: 210Pb 11 sites; 14C six sites; varve counting two sites) or on biostratigraphic correlation among pollen diagrams. The latter relies mainly on trends in Cannabis sativa, Ambrosia, Mercurialis annua, and Ostrya-type pollen. Individual pollen stratigraphies are discussed and sites are compared within each region. The principle of designating local, extra-local, and regional pollen signals and vegetation is exemplified by two pairs of sites lying close together. Trends in biostratigraphies shared by a major part of the pollen diagrams allow the following generalisations. Forest declined in phases since medieval times up to the late 19th century. Abies and Fagus declined consistently, whereas the behaviour of short-lived trees and trees of moist habitats differed among sites (Alnus glutinosa-type, Alnus viridis, Betula, Corylus avellana). In the present century, however, Picea and Pinus increased, followed by Fraxinus excelsior in the second half of this century. Grassland (traced by Gramineae and Plantago lanceolata-type pollen) increased, replacing much of the forest, and declined again in the second half of this century. Nitrate enrichment of the vegetation (traced by Urtica) took place in the first half of this century. These trends reflect the intensification of forest use and the expansion of grassland from medieval times up to the end of the last century, whereas subsequently parts of the grassland became used more intensively and the marginal parts were abandoned for forest regrowth. In most pollen diagrams human impact is the dominant factor in explaining inferred changes in vegetation, but climatic change plays a role at three sites.

LC-MS/MS based assay and reference intervals in children and adolescents for oxysterols elevated in Niemann-Pick diseases

BACKGROUND Niemann-Pick type C (NP-C) is a rare progressive neurodegenerative lipid storage disorder with heterogeneous clinical presentation and challenging diagnostic procedures. Recently oxysterols have been reported to be specific biomarkers for NP-C but knowledge on the intra-individual variation and on reference intervals in children and adolescents are lacking. METHODS We established a LC-MS/MS assay to measure Cholestane-3β, 5α, 6β-triol (C-triol) and 7-Ketocholesterol (7-KC) following Steglich esterification. To assess reference intervals and intra-individual variation we determined oxysterols in 148 children and adolescents from 0 to 18 years and repeat measurements in 19 of them. RESULTS The reported method is linear (r>0.99), sensitive (detection limit of 0.03 ng/mL [0.07 nM] for C-triol, and 0.54 ng/mL [1.35 nM] for 7-KC) and precise, with an intra-day imprecision of 4.8% and 4.1%, and an inter-day imprecision of 7.0% and 11.0% for C-triol (28 ng/ml, 67 nM) and 7-KC (32 ng/ml, 80 nM), respectively. Recoveries for 7-KC and C-triol range between 93% and 107%. The upper reference limit obtained for C-triol is 40.4 ng/mL (95% CI: 26.4-61.7 ng/mL, 96.0 nM, 95% CI: 62.8-146.7 nM) and 75.0 ng/mL for 7-KC (95% CI: 55.5-102.5 ng/mL, 187.2 nM, 95% CI: 138.53-255.8 nM), with no age or gender dependency. Both oxysterols have a broad intra-individual variation of 46%±23% for C-triol and 52%±29% for 7-KC. Nevertheless, all Niemann-Pick patients showed increased C-triol levels including Niemann-Pick type A and B patients. CONCLUSIONS The LC-MS/MS assay is a robust assay to quantify C-triol and 7-KC in plasma with well documented reference intervals in children and adolescents to screen for NP-C in the pediatric population. In addition our results suggest that especially the C-triol is a biomarker for all three Niemann-Pick diseases.

The impact of structural conditions in communes on sports behaviour of adolescents and young adults in Switzerland

Young peoples’ sport activity differs considerably depending on the linguistic region in Switzerland (Lamprecht, Fischer, & Stamm, 2014). This appears to be based on cultural as well as on structural differences. The question then arises how differing structural conditions in communes (e.g. sport facilities, significance of the municipal promotion of sport) across different linguistic regions of Switzerland cause variation in sport behaviour. Based on the theory of social action (Coleman, 1990), it is assumed that individual behaviour is not only determined by individual but also by structural and socio - cultural factors in which a person is socially embedded . In 33 municipalities of the German and French speaking region of Switzerland, multilevel data was gathered analysing possible influences of structural factors on sports behaviour. Using an online survey, 15 to 30 year old inhabitants (N=3677) were questi oned about their sports participation, as well as their perception of sport - related structural characteristics in their commune. To collect information about communes’ sport facilities, sport providers as well as representatives of the municipal administra tion were interviewed and document analyses were conducted. Representatives of the municipal administration attach more importance to sport promotion in the German speaking than in French - speaking municipalities. Young people living in the French speaking commune are less satisfied with the sport facilities (F(1,3266)=31.31, p<.01) and they are less physically active than their German - speaking counterparts (Chi2(1,N=3537)=22.51, p<.05). These first findings show the impact of structural conditions in commun es on sport participation of adolescents and young people. However, further multilevel analyses will be conducted for a better understanding of correlations between structural conditions and different sports behaviour of young people. References Coleman, J. S. (1990). Foundations of social theory. Cambridge, MA: Belknap. Lamprecht, M., Fischer, A. & Stamm, H. (2014). Sport Schweiz 2014. Sportaktivität und Sportinteresse der Schweizer Bevölkerung. Magglingen: BASPO.

The relevance of sport-related behaviour patterns in the family for the sport participation of youth in Switzerland

Despite various efforts to promote sport participation among youth, social inequalities still exist. An explanation for these social inequalities could be traced back to transgenerational transmission of sport-related values and behaviour patterns in a family (Baur, 1989). Therefore, children’s socialisation to sport is strongly influenced by the parents’ sport-related values and sport behaviour (Burrmann, 2005). However, findings of previous studies are inconsistent, and the daily sport-related behaviour patterns of families have often not been taken into account. The paper deals with the question, to what extent sport participation of youth is influenced by factors such as the importance of sport, the self-evidence of regular sport activity, mutual support, shared sport activities, sport-related health-awareness and communication about sport in the family. In order to pursue this research question, socialisation theories were used as theoretical framework (Hurrelmann, 2006). Based on this approach, a quantitative online survey where 4’039 adolescents and young adults from the ages of 15 to 30 (n = 4’039, M = 21.48, SD = 4.64) answered questions according their sport participation and the sport-related patterns of their families. Furthermore, a qualitative study that included guideline-based interviews with adolescents and young adults (n = 13) were undertaken. Content analysis was used to analyse the interviews. Initial findings of the multiple regression analysis reveal that the most important predictors of sport participation of youth are communication about sport (β = .18, p < .001), mutual support (β = .13, p < .001), regular sport activity (β = .10, p < .01) and the importance of sport in the family (β = .10, p < .01). By means of content analysis, more in-depth information could be identified. The promotion of sport through sport-related behaviour patterns in the family appears to be a successful strategy to develop a durable sport commitment in youth. References Baur, J. (1989). Körper- und Bewegungskarrieren [Body and exercise careers]. Schorndorf: Hofmann. Burrmann, U. (2005). Zur Vermittlung und intergenerationalen "Vererbung" von Sport(vereins)engagements in der Herkunftsfamilie [On placing and "inheriting" intergenerational sport(club) commitment in the family of origin]. Sport und Gesellschaft, 2, 125–154. Hurrelmann, K. (2006). Einführung in die Sozialisationstheorie [Introduction to socialisation theory] (9th ed.). Studium Paedagogik. Weinheim: Beltz.

Effects of stereotypic behaviour and chronic mild stress on judgement bias in laboratory mice

Cognitive processes are influenced by underlying affective states, and tests of cognitive bias have recently been developed to assess the valence of affective states in animals. These tests are based on the fact that individuals in a negative affective state interpret ambiguous stimuli more pessimistically than individuals in a more positive state. Using two strains of mice we explored whether unpredictable chronic mild stress (UCMS) can induce a negative judgement bias and whether variation in the expression of stereotypic behaviour is associated with variation in judgement bias. Sixteen female CD-1 and 16 female C57BL/6 mice were trained on a tactile conditional discrimination test with grade of sandpaper as a cue for differential food rewards. Once they had learned the discrimination, half of the mice were subjected to UCMS for three weeks to induce a negative affective state. Although UCMS induced a reduced preference for the higher value reward in the judgement bias test, it did not affect saccharine preference or hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) activity. However, UCMS affected responses to ambiguous (intermediate) cues in the judgement bias test. While control mice showed a graded response to ambiguous cues, UCMS mice of both strains did not discriminate between ambiguous cues and tended to show shorter latencies to the ambiguous cues and the negative reference cue. UCMS also increased bar-mouthing in CD-1, but not in C57BL/6 mice. Furthermore, mice with higher levels of stereotypic behaviour made more optimistic choices in the judgement bias test. However, no such relationship was found for stereotypic bar-mouthing, highlighting the importance of investigating different types of stereotypic behaviour separately.