Age modeling of young non-varved lake sediments: methods and limits. Examples from two lakes in Central Chile

High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

Prediction of total quarter milk somatic cell counts based on foremilk sampling

Determination of somatic cell count (SCC) is used worldwide in dairy practice to describe the hygienic status of the milk and the udder health of cows. When SCC is tested on a quarter level to detect single quarters with high SCC levels of cows for practical reasons, mostly foremilk samples after prestimulation (i.e. cleaning of the udder) are used. However, SCC is usually different in different milk fractions. Therefore, the goal of this study was the investigation of the use of foremilk samples for the estimation of total quarter SCC. A total of 378 milkings in 19 dairy cows were performed with a special milking device to drain quarter milk separately. Foremilk samples were taken after udder stimulation and before cluster attachment. SCC was measured in foremilk samples and in total quarter milk. Total quarter milk SCC could not be predicted precisely from foremilk SCC measurements. At relatively high foremilk SCC levels (>300 x 10(3) cells/ml) foremilk SCC were higher than total quarter milk. At around (50-300) x 10(3) cells/ml foremilk and total quarter SCC did not differ considerably. Most interestingly, if foremilk SCC was lower than 50 x 10(3) cells/ml the total quarter SCC was higher than foremilk SCC. In addition, individual cows showed dramatic variations in foremilk SCC that were not very well related to total quarter milk SCC. In conclusion, foremilk samples are useful to detect high quarter milk SCC to recognize possibly infected quarters, only if precise cell counts are not required. However, foremilk samples can be deceptive if very low cell numbers are to be detected.

Design-based stereology: Planning, volumetry and sampling are crucial steps for a successful study

Quantitative data obtained by means of design-based stereology can add valuable information to studies performed on a diversity of organs, in particular when correlated to functional/physiological and biochemical data. Design-based stereology is based on a sound statistical background and can be used to generate accurate data which are in line with principles of good laboratory practice. In addition, by adjusting the study design an appropriate precision can be achieved to find relevant differences between groups. For the success of the stereological assessment detailed planning is necessary. In this review we focus on common pitfalls encountered during stereological assessment. An exemplary workflow is included, and based on authentic examples, we illustrate a number of sampling principles which can be implemented to obtain properly sampled tissue blocks for various purposes.

Efficiency of risk-based vs . random sampling for the monitoring of tetracycline residues in slaughtered calves in Switzerland

In all European Union countries, chemical residues are required to be routinely monitored in meat. Good farming and veterinary practice can prevent the contamination of meat with pharmaceutical substances, resulting in a low detection of drug residues through random sampling. An alternative approach is to target-monitor farms suspected of treating their animals with antimicrobials. The objective of this project was to assess, using a stochastic model, the efficiency of these two sampling strategies. The model integrated data on Swiss livestock as well as expert opinion and results from studies conducted in Switzerland. Risk-based sampling showed an increase in detection efficiency of up to 100% depending on the prevalence of contaminated herds. Sensitivity analysis of this model showed the importance of the accuracy of prior assumptions for conducting risk-based sampling. The resources gained by changing from random to risk-based sampling should be transferred to improving the quality of prior information.

Implementation status of error disclosure standards reported by Swiss hospitals

QUESTION UNDER STUDY To establish at what stage Swiss hospitals are in implementing an internal standard concerning communication with patients and families after an error that resulted in harm. METHODS Hospitals were identified via the Swiss Hospital Association's website. An anonymous questionnaire was sent during September and October 2011 to 379 hospitals in German, French or Italian. Hospitals were asked to specify their hospital type and the implementation status of an internal hospital standard that decrees that patients or their relatives are to be promptly informed about medical errors that result in harm. RESULTS Responses from a total of 205 hospitals were received, a response rate of 54%. Most responding hospitals (62%) had an error disclosure standard or planned to implement one within 12 months. The majority of responding university and acute care (75%) hospitals had introduced a disclosure standard or were planning to do so. In contrast, the majority of responding psychiatric, rehabilitation and specialty (53%) clinics had not introduced a standard. CONCLUSION It appears that Swiss hospitals are in a promising state in providing institutional support for practitioners disclosing medical errors to patients. This has been shown internationally to be one important factor in encouraging the disclosure of medical errors. However, many hospitals, in particular psychiatric, rehabilitation and specialty clinics, have not implemented an error disclosure policy. Further research is needed to explore the underlying reasons.

Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

A connection between two nonparametric tests for perfect ranking in balanced ranked set sampling

In this note, we show that an extension of a test for perfect ranking in a balanced ranked set sample given by Li and Balakrishnan (2008) to the multi-cycle case turns out to be equivalent to the test statistic proposed by Frey et al. (2007). This provides an alternative interpretation and motivation for their test statistic.