Admission blood glucose is an independent predictive factor for hospital mortality in polytraumatised patients

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to analyse a possible association of admission blood glucose with hospital mortality of polytraumatised patients and to develop an outcome prediction model for this patient group. METHODS: The outcome of adult polytraumatised patients admitted to the University Hospital of Berne, Switzerland, between 2002 and 2004 with an ISS > or = 17, and more than one severely injured organ system was retrospectively analysed. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 555 patients, of which 108 (19.5%) died. Hyperglycaemia proved to be an independent predictor for hospital mortality (P < 0.0001), following multiple regression analysis. After inclusion of admission blood glucose, the calculated mortality prediction model performed better than currently described models (P < 0.0001, AUC 0.924). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective, single-centre study in polytraumatised patients, admission blood glucose proved to be an independent predictor of hospital mortality following regression analysis controlling for age, gender, injury severity and other laboratory parameters. A reliable admission blood glucose-based mortality prediction model for polytraumatised patients could be established. This observation may be helpful in improving the precision of future outcome prediction models for polytraumatised patients. These observations warrant further prospective evaluation.

Limited predictive value of FDG-PET for response assessment in the preoperative treatment of esophageal cancer: results of a prospective multi-center trial (SAKK 75/02)

BACKGROUND: Only responding patients benefit from preoperative therapy for locally advanced esophageal carcinoma. Early detection of non-responders may avoid futile treatment and delayed surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a multi-center phase ll trial, patients with resectable, locally advanced esophageal carcinoma were treated with 2 cycles of induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery. Positron emission tomography with 2[fluorine-18]fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose (FDG-PET) was performed at baseline and after induction chemotherapy. The metabolic response was correlated with tumor regression grade (TRG). A decrease in FDG tumor uptake of less than 40% was prospectively hypothesized as a predictor for histopathological non-response (TRG > 2) after CRT. RESULTS: 45 patients were included. The median decrease in FDG tumor uptake after chemotherapy correlated well with TRG after completion of CRT (p = 0.021). For an individual patient, less than 40% decrease in FDG tumor uptake after induction chemotherapy predicted histopathological non-response after completion of CRT, with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 52% (positive predictive value 58%, negative predictive value 63%). CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic response correlated with histopathology after preoperative therapy. However, FDG-PET did not predict non-response after induction chemotherapy with sufficient clinical accuracy to justify withdrawal of subsequent CRT and selection of patients to proceed directly to surgery.

An insulin infusion advisory system for type 1 diabetes patients based on non-linear model predictive control methods

In this paper, an Insulin Infusion Advisory System (IIAS) for Type 1 diabetes patients, which use insulin pumps for the Continuous Subcutaneous Insulin Infusion (CSII) is presented. The purpose of the system is to estimate the appropriate insulin infusion rates. The system is based on a Non-Linear Model Predictive Controller (NMPC) which uses a hybrid model. The model comprises a Compartmental Model (CM), which simulates the absorption of the glucose to the blood due to meal intakes, and a Neural Network (NN), which simulates the glucose-insulin kinetics. The NN is a Recurrent NN (RNN) trained with the Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) algorithm. The output of the model consists of short term glucose predictions and provides input to the NMPC, in order for the latter to estimate the optimum insulin infusion rates. For the development and the evaluation of the IIAS, data generated from a Mathematical Model (MM) of a Type 1 diabetes patient have been used. The proposed control strategy is evaluated at multiple meal disturbances, various noise levels and additional time delays. The results indicate that the implemented IIAS is capable of handling multiple meals, which correspond to realistic meal profiles, large noise levels and time delays.

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

Mid-term results in relation to age and analysis of predictive factors after fixation of acetabular fractures using the modified Stoppa approach.

INTRODUCTION Data concerning outcome after management of acetabular fractures by anterior approaches with focus on age and fractures associated with roof impaction, central dislocation and/or quadrilateral plate displacement are rare. METHODS Between October 2005 and April 2009 a series of 59 patients (mean age 57 years, range 13-91) with fractures involving the anterior column was treated using the modified Stoppa approach alone or for reduction of displaced iliac wing or low anterior column fractures in combination with the 1st window of the ilioinguinal approach or the modified Smith-Petersen approach, respectively. Surgical data, accuracy of reduction, clinical and radiographic outcome at mid-term and the need for endoprosthetic replacement in the postoperative course (defined as failure) were assessed; uni- and multivariate regression analysis were performed to identify independent predictive factors (e.g. age, nonanatomical reduction, acetabular roof impaction, central dislocation, quadrilateral plate displacement) for a failure. Outcome was assessed for all patients in general and in accordance to age in particular; patients were subdivided into two groups according to their age (group "<60yrs", group "≥60yrs"). RESULTS Forty-three of 59 patients (mean age 54yrs, 13-89) were available for evaluation. Of these, anatomic reduction was achieved in 72% of cases. Nonanatomical reduction was identified as being the only multivariate predictor for subsequent total hip replacement (Adjusted Hazard Ratio 23.5; p<0.01). A statistically significant higher rate of nonanatomical reduction was observed in the presence of acetabular roof impaction (p=0.01). In 16% of all patients, total hip replacement was performed and in 69% of patients with preserved hips the clinical results were excellent or good at a mean follow up of 35±10 months (range: 24-55). No statistical significant differences were observed between both groups. CONCLUSION Nonanatomical reconstruction of the articular surfaces is at risk for failure of joint-preserving management of acetabular fractures through an isolated or combined modified Stoppa approach resulting in total joint replacement at mid-term. In the elderly, joint-preserving surgery is worth considering as promising clinical and radiographic results might be obtained at mid-term.

Serial lactate and admission SOFA scores in trauma: an analysis of predictive value in 724 patients with and without traumatic brain injury

Objective Arterial lactate, base excess (BE), lactate clearance, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score have been shown to correlate with outcome in severely injured patients. The goal of the present study was to separately assess their predictive value in patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) as opposed to patients suffering from injuries not related to the brain. Materials and methods A total of 724 adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 were grouped into patients without TBI (non-TBI), patients with isolated TBI (isolated TBI), and patients with a combination of TBI and non-TBI injuries (combined injuries). The predictive value of the above parameters was then analyzed using both uni- and multivariate analyses. Results The mean age of the patients was 39 years (77 % males), with a mean ISS of 32 (range 16–75). Mortality ranged from 14 % (non-TBI) to 24 % (combined injuries). Admission and serial lactate/BE values were higher in non-survivors of all groups (all p < 0.01), but not in patients with isolated TBI. Admission SOFA scores were highest in non-survivors of all groups (p = 0.023); subsequently septic patients also showed elevated SOFA scores (p < 0.01), except those with isolated TBI. In this group, SOFA score was the only parameter which showed significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed lactate to be the best overall predictor for increased mortality and further septic complications, irrespective of the leading injury. Conclusion Lactate showed the best performance in predicting sepsis or death in all trauma patients except those with isolated TBI, and the differences were greatest in patients with substantial bleeding. Following isolated TBI, SOFA score was the only parameter which could differentiate survivors from non-survivors on admission, although the SOFA score, too, was not an independent predictor of death following multivariate analysis.

A non-coding genomic duplication at the HMX1 locus is associated with crop ears in highland cattle.

Highland cattle with congenital crop ears have notches of variable size on the tips of both ears. In some cases, cartilage deformation can be seen and occasionally the external ears are shortened. We collected 40 cases and 80 controls across Switzerland. Pedigree data analysis confirmed a monogenic autosomal dominant mode of inheritance with variable expressivity. All affected animals could be traced back to a single common ancestor. A genome-wide association study was performed and the causative mutation was mapped to a 4 Mb interval on bovine chromosome 6. The H6 family homeobox 1 (HMX1) gene was selected as a positional and functional candidate gene. By whole genome re-sequencing of an affected Highland cattle, we detected 6 non-synonymous coding sequence variants and two variants in an ultra-conserved element at the HMX1 locus with respect to the reference genome. Of these 8 variants, only a non-coding 76 bp genomic duplication (g.106720058_106720133dup) located in the conserved region was perfectly associated with crop ears. The identified copy number variation probably results in HMX1 misregulation and possible gain-of-function. Our findings confirm the role of HMX1 during the development of the external ear. As it is sometimes difficult to phenotypically diagnose Highland cattle with slight ear notches, genetic testing can now be used to improve selection against this undesired trait.

SLA-driven predictive orchestration for distributed cloud-based mobile services

We describe a system for performing SLA-driven management and orchestration of distributed infrastructures composed of services supporting mobile computing use cases. In particular, we focus on a Follow-Me Cloud scenario in which we consider mobile users accessing cloud-enable services. We combine a SLA-driven approach to infrastructure optimization, with forecast-based performance degradation preventive actions and pattern detection for supporting mobile cloud infrastructure management. We present our system's information model and architecture including the algorithmic support and the proposed scenarios for system evaluation.

Clinical signs of deformed wing virus infection are predictive markers for honey bee colony losses.

The ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor acting as a virus vector constitutes a central mechanism for losses of managed honey bee, Apis mellifera, colonies. This creates demand for an easy, accurate and cheap diagnostic tool to estimate the impact of viruliferous mites in the field. Here we evaluated whether the clinical signs of the ubiquitous and mite-transmitted deformed wing virus (DWV) can be predictive markers of winter losses. In fall and winter 2007/2008, A.m. carnica workers with apparent wing deformities were counted daily in traps installed on 29 queenright colonies. The data show that colonies which later died had a significantly higher proportion of workers with wing deformities than did those which survived. There was a significant positive correlation between V. destructor infestation levels and the number of workers displaying DWV clinical signs, further supporting the mite's impact on virus infections at the colony level. A logistic regression model suggests that colony size, the number of workers with wing deformities and V. destructor infestation levels constitute predictive markers for winter colony losses in this order of importance and ease of evaluation.

Surgery for low-grade glioma infiltrating the central cerebral region: location as a predictive factor for neurological deficit, epileptological outcome, and quality of life

OBJECT A main concern with regard to surgery for low-grade glioma (LGG, WHO Grade II) is maintenance of the patient's functional integrity. This concern is particularly relevant for gliomas in the central region, where damage can have grave repercussions. The authors evaluated postsurgical outcomes with regard to neurological deficits, seizures, and quality of life. METHODS Outcomes were compared for 33 patients with central LGG (central cohort) and a control cohort of 31 patients with frontal LGG (frontal cohort), all of whom had had medically intractable seizures before undergoing surgery with mapping while awake. All surgeries were performed in the period from February 2007 through April 2010 at the same institution. RESULTS For the central cohort, the median extent of resection was 92% (range 80%-97%), and for the frontal cohort, the median extent of resection was 93% (range 83%-98%; p = 1.0). Although the rate of mild neurological deficits was similar for both groups, seizure freedom (Engel Class I) was achieved for only 4 (12.1%) of 33 patients in the central cohort compared with 26 (83.9%) of 31 patients in the frontal cohort (p < 0.0001). The rate of return to work was lower for patients in the central cohort (4 [12.1%] of 33) than for the patients in the frontal cohort (28 [90.3%] of 31; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Resection of central LGG is feasible and safe when appropriate intraoperative mapping is used. However, seizure control for these patients remains poor, a finding that contrasts markedly with seizure control for patients in the frontal cohort and with that reported in the literature. For patients with central LGG, poor seizure control ultimately determines quality of life because most will not be able to return to work.

The additional facet of immunoscore: immunoprofiling as a possible predictive tool for cancer treatment

Recent investigations of the tumor microenvironment have shown that many tumors are infiltrated by inflammatory and lymphocytic cells. Increasing evidence suggests that the number, type and location of these tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in primary tumors has prognostic value, and this has led to the development of an 'immunoscore. As well as providing useful prognostic information, the immunoscore concept also has the potential to help predict response to treatment, thereby improving decision- making with regard to choice of therapy. This predictive aspect of the tumor microenvironment forms the basis for the concept of immunoprofiling, which can be described as 'using an individual's immune system signature (or profile) to predict that patient's response to therapy' The immunoprofile of an individual can be genetically determined or tumor-induced (and therefore dynamic). Ipilimumab is the first in a series of immunomodulating antibodies and has been shown to be associated with improved overall survival in patients with advanced melanoma. Other immunotherapies in development include anti-programmed death 1 protein (nivolumab), anti-PD-ligand 1, anti-CD137 (urelumab), and anti-OX40. Biomarkers that can be used as predictive factors for these treatments have not yet been clinically validated. However, there is already evidence that the tumor microenvironment can have a predictive role, with clinical activity of ipilimumab related to high baseline expression of the immune-related genes FoxP3 and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase and an increase in tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes. These biomarkers could represent the first potential proposal for an immunoprofiling panel in patients for whom anti-CTLA-4 therapy is being considered, although prospective data are required. In conclusion, the evaluation of systemic and local immunological biomarkers could offer useful prognostic information and facilitate clinical decision making. The challenge will be to identify the individual immunoprofile of each patient and the consequent choice of optimal therapy or combination of therapies to be used.