Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Seedling resistance, tolerance and escape from herbivores: insights from co-dominant canopy tree species in a resource-poor African rain forest

* Although plants can reduce the impacts of herbivory in multiple ways, these defensive traits are often studied in isolation and an understanding of the resulting strategies is incomplete. * In the study reported here, empirical evidence was simultaneously evaluated for the three main sets of traits available to plants: (i) resistance through constitutive leaf traits, (ii) tolerance to defoliation and (iii) escape in space, for three caesalpiniaceous tree species Microberlinia bisulcata, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. korupensis, which co-dominate groves within the lowland primary rain forest of Korup National Park (Cameroon). * Mesh cages were placed around individual wild seedlings to exclude insect herbivores at 41 paired canopy gap and understorey locations. After following seedling growth and survival for c. 2 years, caged and control treatments were removed, leaves harvested to determine nutrient and phenolic concentrations, leaf mass per area estimated, and seedling performance in gaps followed for a further c. 2 years to quantify tolerance to the leaf harvesting. * The more nutrient-rich leaves of the weakly shade-tolerant M. bisulcata were damaged much more in gaps than the two strongly shade-tolerant Tetraberlinia species, which had higher leaf mass per area and concentrations of total phenols. Conversely, the faster-growing M. bisulcata was better able to tolerate defoliation in terms of height growth (reflushing capacity), but not at maintaining overall leaf numbers, than the other two species. * Across gaps, insect-mediated Janzen–Connell effects were most pronounced for M. bisulcata, less so for T. korupensis, and not detectable for T. bifoliolata. The three species differed distinctly in their secondary metabolic profiles. * Taken together, the results suggested a conceptual framework linking the three sets of traits, one in which the three co-dominant species adopt different strategies towards herbivore pressure depending on their different responses to light availability. This study is one of the first in a natural forest ecosystem to examine resistance to, tolerance of, and escape from herbivory among a group of co-occurring tropical tree species.

Transcriptional profiles of cytokine/chemokine factors of immune cell-homing to the parasitic lesions: a comprehensive one-year course study in the liver of E. multilocularis-infected mice.

Pathogenesis of chronically developing alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is characterized by a continuous, granulomatous, periparasitic infiltration of immune cells surrounding the metacestode of Echinococcus multilocularis (E.multilocularis) in the affected liver. A detailed cytokine and chemokine profile analysis of the periparasitic infiltrate in the liver has, however, not yet been carried out in a comprehensive way all along the whole course of infection in E. multilocularis intermediate hosts. We thus assessed the hepatic gene expression profiles of 18 selected cytokine and chemokine genes using qRT-PCR in the periparasitic immune reaction and the subsequent adjacent, not directly affected, liver tissue of mice from day 2 to day 360 post intra-hepatic injection of metacestode. DNA microarray analysis was also used to get a more complete picture of the transcriptional changes occurring in the liver surrounding the parasitic lesions. Profiles of mRNA expression levels in the hepatic parasitic lesions showed that a mixed Th1/Th2 immune response, characterized by the concomitant presence of IL-12α, IFN-γ and IL-4, was established very early in the development of E. multilocularis. Subsequently, the profile extended to a combined tolerogenic profile associating IL-5, IL-10 and TGF-β. IL-17 was permanently expressed in the liver, mostly in the periparasitic infiltrate; this was confirmed by the increased mRNA expression of both IL-17A and IL-17F from a very early stage, with a subsequent decrease of IL-17A after this first initial rise. All measured chemokines were significantly expressed at a given stage of infection; their expression paralleled that of the corresponding Th1, Th2 or Th17 cytokines. In addition to giving a comprehensive insight in the time course of cytokines and chemokines in E. multilocularis lesion, this study contributes to identify new targets for possible immune therapy to minimize E. multilocularis-related pathology and to complement the only parasitostatic effect of benzimidazoles in AE.

Density-dependent dynamics of a dominant rain forest tree change with juvenile stage and time of masting

Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.

Litter nutrients and retranslocation in a central African rain forest dominated by ectomycorrhizal trees

In the strongly seasonal, but annually very wet, parts of the tropics, low-water availability in the short dry season leads to a semi-deciduous forest, one which is also highly susceptible to nutrient loss from leaching in the long wet season. Patterns in litterfall were compared between forest with low (LEM) and high (HEM) abundances of ectomycorrhizal trees in Korup National Park, Cameroon, over 26 months in 1990–92. Leaf litter was sorted into 26 abundant species which included six ectomycorrhizal species, and of these three were the large grove-forming trees Microberlinia bisulcata, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and Tetraberlinia moreliana. Larger-tree species shed their leaves with pronounced peaks in the dry season, whereas other species had either weaker dependence, showed several peaks per year, or were wet-season shedders. Although total annual litterfall differed little between forest types, in the HEM forest (dominated by M. bisulcata) the dry-season peak was more pronounced and earlier than that in the LEMforest. Species differed greatly in their mean leaf litterfall nutrient concentrations, with an approx. twofold range for nitrogen and phosphorus, and 2.5–3.5-fold for potassium, magnesium and calcium. In the dry season, LEM and HEM litter showed similar declines in P and N concentration, and increases in K and Mg; some species, especially M. bisculcata, showed strong dry-wet season differences. The concentration of P (but not N) was higher in the leaf litter of ectomycorrhizal than nonectomycorrhizal species. Retranslocation of N and P was lower among the ectomycorrhizal than nonectomycorrhizal species by approx. twofold. It is suggested that, within ectomycorrhizal groves on this soil low in P, a fast decomposition rate with minimal loss of mineralized P is possible due to the relatively high litter P not limiting the cycle at this stage, combined with an efficient recapture of released P by the surface organic layer of ectomycorrhizas and fine roots. This points to a feedback between two essential controlling steps (retranslocation and mineralization) in a tropical rain forest ecosystem dominated by ectomycorrhizal trees.

Light and seed size affect establishment of grove-forming ectomycorrhizal rain forest tree species

• Regeneration of the dominant ectomycorrhizal tree Microberlinia bisulcata in groves in Korup, Central Africa, is very poor. The hypothesis was tested that this species is more shade intolerant than other co-occurring species. • In two 1-yr trials, each with M. bisulcata and four other species at a nursery close to Korup, growth was measured under five PAR levels, with ± added P and ± watering in the dry season. In parallel experiments the effects of PAR with two R : FR ratios were investigated. • Increasing PAR had a consistent effect on the rates of increase in plant mass and on changes in the other variables. Doubling soil P, watering and halving the R : FR ratio had almost no effect. However, across species, mass at low PAR and relative growth rate related positively and negatively, respectively, to seed mass. • One contributing factor for the poor recruitment of M. bisulcata is therefore its low survival and slow growth at low PAR, due to its small seed size. The two codominant ectomycorrhizal grove species of Tetraberlinia, with larger seeds, were less affected by low PAR.

Does proximity to conspecific adults influence the establishment of ectomycorrhizal trees in rain forest?

Three ectomycorrhizal legume trees, Microberlinia bisulcata, Tetraberlinia bifoliolata and T. moreliana, form discrete groves in the southern part of Korup National Park, in southwest Cameroon and contribute c. 45–70% of stand basal area locally in a matrix of otherwise species-rich arbuscular mycorrhizal forest. A transplant experiment was performed to assess the importance of ectomycorrhizal infection associated with proximity to parents in seedling establishment of the grove-forming species. Nonectomycorrhizal seedlings of the three species were transplanted into plots of two forest types, one of high (HEM, within-grove) and one of very low (LEM, outside the grove) abundance of all three species as adult trees. For two species (T. moreliana and M. bisulcata) there was no difference in survival over 16 months, but for the third (T. bifoliolata) survival was best in HEM forest, and correlated with the basal area of adult trees of ectomycorrhizal species. Only one species (T. moreliana) increased in biomass over the experimental period; the others declined. There was no effect of forest type on overall growth of any species, but the survivors of two (T. moreliana and M. bisulcata) had heavier stems in the HEM forest. Differences in survival and growth of transplants between the three species were in accord with the ecology of the species as inferred from the frequency distributions of adult tree size in the forest. Seedlings became infected with ectomycorrhizas in both forest types; where there was a difference in extent of infection (T. moreliana) this was not related to survival or growth; and where there was a difference in survival (T. bifoliolata) this was not related to extent of infection. These results confirm that mycorrhizal inoculum associated with conspecific adults is neither a prerequisite nor a guarantee of seedling establishment, but indicates that in some circumstances there might be benefits of being close to parents. Further research is required to unravel the complexities of ectomycorrhizal community structure in this spatially and temporally heterogeneous forest, and to clarify the extent to which the various hosts share ectomycorrhizal partners.