High-resolution summer temperature reconstruction from Lake Silvaplana based on in-situ reflectance spectroscopy

Annually laminated (varved) sediments of proglacial Lake Silvaplana (46 ̊27’N, 9 ̊48’E, 1791 m a.s.l., Engadine, eastern Swiss Alps) provide an excellent archive for quantitative high-resolution (seasonal – annual) reconstruction of high- and lowfrequency climate signals back to AD 1580. The chronology of the core is based on varve counting, Cs-137, Pb-210 and event stratigraphy. In this study we present a reconstruction based on in-situ reflectance spectroscopy. In situ reflectance spectroscopy is known as a cost- and time-effective non destructtive method for semi-quantitative analysis of pigments (e.g., chlorines and carotenoids) and of lithoclastic sediment fractions. Reflectance-dependent absorption (RDA) was measured with a Gretac Macbeth spectrolino at 2 mm resolution. The spectral coverage ranges from 380 nm to 730 nm at 10 nm band resolution. In proglacial Lake Silvaplana, 99% of the sediment is lithoclastic prior to AD 1950. Therefore, we concentrate on absorption features that are characteristic for lithoclastic sediment fractions. In Lake Silvaplana, two significant correlations that are stable in time were found between RDA typical for lithoclastics and meteorological data: (1) the time series R 570 /R 630 (ratio between RDA at 570 nm and 630 nm) of varves in Lake Silvaplana and May to October temperatures at nearby station of Sils correlate highly significantly (calibration period AD 1864 – 1951, r = 0.74, p < 0.01 for 5ptsmoothed series; RMSE is 0.28 ̊C, RE = 0.41 and CE = 0.38), and (2) the minimum reflectance within the 690nm band (min690) data correlate with May to October (calibration period AD 1864 – 1951, r = 0.68, p < 0.01 for 5pt-smoothed series; RMSE = 0.22 ̊C, RE = 0.5, CE = 0.31). Both proxy series (min690nm and R 570 /R 630 values) are internally highly consistent (r = 0.8, p < 0.001). In proglacial Lake Silvaplana the largest amount of sediment is transported by glacial meltwater. The melting season spans approximately from May to October, which gives us a good understanding of the geophysical processes explaining the correlations between lithoclastic proxies and the meteorological data. The reconstructions were extended back to AD 1580 and show a broad corresponddence with fully independent reconstructions from tree rings and documentary data.

Determination of the minimum alveolar concentration of isoflurane in Shetland ponies using constant current or constant voltage electrical stimulation

OBJECTIVE: To determine the minimum alveolar concentration (MAC) of isoflurane in Shetland ponies using a sequence of three different supramaximal noxious stimulations at each tested concentration of isoflurane rather than a single stimulation. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, experimental trial. ANIMALS: Seven 4-year-old, gelding Shetland ponies. METHODS: The MAC of isoflurane was determined for each pony. Three different modes of electrical stimulation were applied consecutively (2 minute intervals): two using constant voltage (90 V) on the gingiva via needle- (CVneedle) or surface-electrodes (CVsurface) and one using constant current (CC; 40 mA) via surface electrodes applied to the skin over the digital nerve. The ability to clearly interpret the responses as positive, the latency of the evoked responses and the inter-electrode resistance were recorded for each stimulus. RESULTS: Individual isoflurane MAC (%) values ranged from 0.60 to 1.17 with a mean (+/-SD) of 0.97 (+/-0.17). The responses were more clearly interpreted with CC, but did not reach statistical significance. The CVsurface mode produced responses with a longer delay. The CVneedle mode was accompanied by variable inter-electrode resistances resulting in uncontrolled stimulus intensity. At 0.9 MAC, the third stimulation induced more positive responses than the first stimulation, independent of the mode of stimulation used. CONCLUSIONS: The MAC of isoflurane in the Shetland ponies was lower than expected with considerable variability among individuals. Constant current surface electrode stimulations were the most repeatable. A summation over the sequence of three supramaximal stimulations was observed around 0.9 MAC. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The possibility that Shetland ponies require less isoflurane than horses needs further investigation. Constant current surface-electrode stimulations were the most repeatable. Repetitive supramaximal stimuli may have evoked movements at isoflurane concentrations that provide immobility when single supramaximal stimulation was applied.

Synoptic Analysis of the New York March 1888 Blizzard

The meteorological circumstances that led to the Blizzard of March 1888 that hit New York are analysed in Version 2 of the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR). The potential of this data set for studying historical extreme events has not yet been fully explored. A detailed analysis of 20CR data alongside other data sources (including historical instrumental data and weather maps) for historical extremes such as the March 1888 blizzard may give insights into the limitations of 20CR. We find that 20CR reproduces the circulation pattern as well as the temperature development very well. Regarding the absolute values of variables such as snow fall or minimum and maximum surface pressure, there is anunderestimation of the observed extremes, which may be due to the low spatial resolution of 20CR and the fact that only the ensemble mean is considered. Despite this drawback, the dataset allows us to gain new information due to its complete spatial and temporal coverage.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

The lower quality of preventive care among forced migrants in a country with universal healthcare coverage

OBJECTIVE To assess the association between socio-demographic factors and the quality of preventive care and chronic care of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in a country with universal health care coverage. METHODS Our retrospective cohort assessed a random sample of 966 patients aged 50-80years followed over 2years (2005-2006) in 4 Swiss university primary care settings (Basel/Geneva/Lausanne/Zürich). We used RAND's Quality Assessment Tools indicators and examined recommended preventive care among different socio-demographic subgroups. RESULTS Overall patients received 69.6% of recommended preventive care. Preventive care indicators were more likely to be met among men (72.8% vs. 65.4%; p<0.001), younger patients (from 71.0% at 50-59years to 66.7% at 70-80years, p for trend=0.03) and Swiss patients (71.1% vs. 62.7% in forced migrants; p=0.001). This latter difference remained in multivariate analysis adjusted for gender, age, civil status and occupation (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.54-0.86). Forced migrants had lower scores for physical examination and breast and colon cancer screening (all p≤0.02). No major differences were seen for chronic care of CV risk factors. CONCLUSION Despite universal healthcare coverage, forced migrants receive less preventive care than Swiss patients in university primary care settings. Greater attention should be paid to forced migrants for preventive care.

Tissue coverage and neointimal hyperplasia in overlap versus nonoverlap segments of drug-eluting stents 9 to 13 months after implantation: in vivo assessment with optical coherence tomography

BACKGROUND Histologic experimental studies have reported incomplete neointimal healing in overlapping with respect to nonoverlapping segments in drug-eluting stents (DESs), but these observations have not been confirmed in human coronary arteries hitherto. On the contrary, angiographic and optical coherence tomography studies suggest that DES overlap elicits rather an exaggerated than an incomplete neointimal reaction. METHODS Optical coherence tomography studies from 2 randomized trials including sirolimus-eluting, biolimus-eluting, everolimus-eluting, and zotarolimus-eluting stents were analyzed at 9- to 13-month follow-up. Coverage in overlapping segments was compared versus the corresponding nonoverlapping segments of the same stents, using statistical pooled analysis. RESULTS Forty-two overlaps were found in 31 patients: 11 in sirolimus-eluting stents, 3 in biolimus-eluting stents, 17 in everolimus-eluting stents, and 11 in zotarolimus-eluting stents. The risk ratio of incomplete coverage was 2.35 (95% CI 1.86-2.98) in overlapping versus nonoverlapping segments. Thickness of coverage in overlaps was only 85% (95% CI 81%-90%) of the thickness in nonoverlaps. Significant heterogeneity of the effect was observed, especially pronounced in the comparison of thickness of coverage (I(2) = 90.31). CONCLUSIONS The effect of overlapping DES on neointimal inhibition is markedly heterogeneous: on average, DES overlap is associated with more incomplete and thinner coverage, but in some cases, the overlap elicits an exaggerated neointimal reaction, thicker than in the corresponding nonoverlapping segments. These results might help to understand why overlapping DES is associated with worse clinical outcomes, both in terms of thrombotic phenomena and in terms of restenosis and revascularization.

On the use of Cramér-Rao minimum variance bounds for the design of magnetic resonance spectroscopy experiments

Localized Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) is in widespread use for clinical brain research. Standard acquisition sequences to obtain one-dimensional spectra suffer from substantial overlap of spectral contributions from many metabolites. Therefore, specially tuned editing sequences or two-dimensional acquisition schemes are applied to extend the information content. Tuning specific acquisition parameters allows to make the sequences more efficient or more specific for certain target metabolites. Cramér-Rao bounds have been used in other fields for optimization of experiments and are now shown to be very useful as design criteria for localized MRS sequence optimization. The principle is illustrated for one- and two-dimensional MRS, in particular the 2D separation experiment, where the usual restriction to equidistant echo time spacings and equal acquisition times per echo time can be abolished. Particular emphasis is placed on optimizing experiments for quantification of GABA and glutamate. The basic principles are verified by Monte Carlo simulations and in vivo for repeated acquisitions of generalized two-dimensional separation brain spectra obtained from healthy subjects and expanded by bootstrapping for better definition of the quantification uncertainties.