Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

Admissibility in Finitely Generated Quasivarieties

Checking the admissibility of quasiequations in a finitely generated (i.e., generated by a finite set of finite algebras) quasivariety Q amounts to checking validity in a suitable finite free algebra of the quasivariety, and is therefore decidable. However, since free algebras may be large even for small sets of small algebras and very few generators, this naive method for checking admissibility in Q is not computationally feasible. In this paper, algorithms are introduced that generate a minimal (with respect to a multiset well-ordering on their cardinalities) finite set of algebras such that the validity of a quasiequation in this set corresponds to admissibility of the quasiequation in Q. In particular, structural completeness (validity and admissibility coincide) and almost structural completeness (validity and admissibility coincide for quasiequations with unifiable premises) can be checked. The algorithms are illustrated with a selection of well-known finitely generated quasivarieties, and adapted to handle also admissibility of rules in finite-valued logics.

Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Foundations of stochastic geometry and theory of random sets

The first section of this chapter starts with the Buffon problem, which is one of the oldest in stochastic geometry, and then continues with the definition of measures on the space of lines. The second section defines random closed sets and related measurability issues, explains how to characterize distributions of random closed sets by means of capacity functionals and introduces the concept of a selection. Based on this concept, the third section starts with the definition of the expectation and proves its convexifying effect that is related to the Lyapunov theorem for ranges of vector-valued measures. Finally, the strong law of large numbers for Minkowski sums of random sets is proved and the corresponding limit theorem is formulated. The chapter is concluded by a discussion of the union-scheme for random closed sets and a characterization of the corresponding stable laws.

Minimal-invasive percutaneous reduction and transsacral screw fixation for U-shaped fractures

STUDY DESIGN Technical note and case series. OBJECTIVE To introduce an innovative minimal-invasive surgical procedure reducing surgery time and blood loss in management of U-shaped sacrum fractures. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND Despite their seldom appearance, U-shaped fractures can cause severe neurological deficits and surgical management difficulties. According to the nature of the injury normally occurring in multi-injured patients after a fall from height, a jump, or road traffic accident, U-shaped fractures create a spinopelvic dissociation and hence are highly unstable. In the past, time-consuming open procedures like large posterior constructs or shortening osteotomies with or without decompression were the method of choice, sacrificing spinal mobility. Insufficient restoration of sacrococcygeal angle and pelvic incidence with conventional techniques may have adverse long-term effects in these patients. METHODS In a consecutive series of 3 patients, percutaneous reduction of the fracture with Schanz pins inserted in either the pedicles of L5 or the S1 body and the posterior superior iliac crest was achieved. The Schanz pins act as lever, allowing a good manipulation of the fracture. The reduction is secured by a temporary external fixator to permit optimal restoration of pelvic incidence and sacral kyphosis. Insertion of 2 transsacral screws allow fixation of the restored spinopelvic alignment. RESULTS Anatomic alignment of the sacrum was possible in each case. Surgery time ranged from 90 to 155 minutes and the blood loss was <50 mL in all 3 cases. Two patients had very good results in the long term regarding maintenance of pelvic incidence and sacrococcygeal angle. One patient with previous cauda equina decompression had loss of correction after 6 months. CONCLUSIONS Percutaneous reduction and transsacral screw fixation offers a less invasive method for treating U-shaped fractures. This can be advantageous in treatment of patients with multiple injuries.

Thermal acclimation to 4 or 10 degrees C imparts minimal benefit on swimming performance in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.).

Thermal acclimation is frequently cited as a means by which ectothermic animals improve their Darwinian fitness, i.e. the beneficial acclimation hypothesis. As the critical swimming speed (U (crit)) test is often used as a proxy measure of fitness, we acclimated Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to 4 and 10 degrees C and then assessed their U (crit) swimming performance at their respective acclimation temperatures and during acute temperature reversal. Because phenotypic differences exist between different populations of cod, we undertook these experiments in two different populations, North Sea cod and North East Arctic cod. Acclimation to 4 or 10 degrees C had a minimal effect on swimming performance or U (crit), however test temperature did, with all groups having a 10-17% higher U (crit) at 10 degrees C. The swimming efficiency was significantly lower in all groups at 4 degrees C arguably due to the compression of the muscle fibre recruitment order. This also led to a reduction in the duration of "kick and glide" swimming at 4 degrees C. No significant differences were seen between the two populations in any of the measured parameters, due possibly to the extended acclimation period. Our data indicate that acclimation imparts little benefit on U (crit) swimming test in Atlantic cod. Further efforts need to identify the functional consequences of the long-term thermal acclimation process.

Establishing optimal quantitative-polymerase chain reaction assays for routine diagnosis and tracking of minimal residual disease in JAK2-V617F-associated myeloproliferative neoplasms: a joint European LeukemiaNet/MPN&MPNr-EuroNet (COST action BM0902) study.

Reliable detection of JAK2-V617F is critical for accurate diagnosis of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs); in addition, sensitive mutation-specific assays can be applied to monitor disease response. However, there has been no consistent approach to JAK2-V617F detection, with assays varying markedly in performance, affecting clinical utility. Therefore, we established a network of 12 laboratories from seven countries to systematically evaluate nine different DNA-based quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays, including those in widespread clinical use. Seven quality control rounds involving over 21,500 qPCR reactions were undertaken using centrally distributed cell line dilutions and plasmid controls. The two best-performing assays were tested on normal blood samples (n=100) to evaluate assay specificity, followed by analysis of serial samples from 28 patients transplanted for JAK2-V617F-positive disease. The most sensitive assay, which performed consistently across a range of qPCR platforms, predicted outcome following transplant, with the mutant allele detected a median of 22 weeks (range 6-85 weeks) before relapse. Four of seven patients achieved molecular remission following donor lymphocyte infusion, indicative of a graft vs MPN effect. This study has established a robust, reliable assay for sensitive JAK2-V617F detection, suitable for assessing response in clinical trials, predicting outcome and guiding management of patients undergoing allogeneic transplant.

Optimal dose levels in screening chest CT for unimpaired detection and volumetry of lung nodules, with and without computer assisted detection at minimal patient radiation

OBJECTIVES The aim of this phantom study was to minimize the radiation dose by finding the best combination of low tube current and low voltage that would result in accurate volume measurements when compared to standard CT imaging without significantly decreasing the sensitivity of detecting lung nodules both with and without the assistance of CAD. METHODS An anthropomorphic chest phantom containing artificial solid and ground glass nodules (GGNs, 5-12 mm) was examined with a 64-row multi-detector CT scanner with three tube currents of 100, 50 and 25 mAs in combination with three tube voltages of 120, 100 and 80 kVp. This resulted in eight different protocols that were then compared to standard CT sensitivity (100 mAs/120 kVp). For each protocol, at least 127 different nodules were scanned in 21-25 phantoms. The nodules were analyzed in two separate sessions by three independent, blinded radiologists and computer-aided detection (CAD) software. RESULTS The mean sensitivity of the radiologists for identifying solid lung nodules on a standard CT was 89.7% ± 4.9%. The sensitivity was not significantly impaired when the tube and current voltage were lowered at the same time, except at the lowest exposure level of 25 mAs/80 kVp [80.6% ± 4.3% (p = 0.031)]. Compared to the standard CT, the sensitivity for detecting GGNs was significantly lower at all dose levels when the voltage was 80 kVp; this result was independent of the tube current. The CAD significantly increased the radiologists' sensitivity for detecting solid nodules at all dose levels (5-11%). No significant volume measurement errors (VMEs) were documented for the radiologists or the CAD software at any dose level. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest a CT protocol with 25 mAs and 100 kVp is optimal for detecting solid and ground glass nodules in lung cancer screening. The use of CAD software is highly recommended at all dose levels.