Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

Late Quaternary palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from Lakes Ohrid and Prespa (Macedonia/Albania border) using stable isotopes

Abstract. Here we present stable isotope data from three sediment records from lakes that lie along the Macedonian- Albanian border (Lake Prespa: 1 core, and Lake Ohrid: 2 cores). The records only overlap for the last 40 kyr, although the longest record contains the MIS 5/6 transition (Lake Ohrid). The sedimentary characteristics of both lakes differ significantly between the glacial and interglacial phases. At the end of MIS 6 Lake Ohrid’s water level was low (high �18Ocalcite) and, although productivity was increasing (high calcite content), the carbon supply was mainly from inorganic catchment rock sources (high �13Ccarb). During the last interglacial, calcite and TOC production and preservation increased, progressively lower �18Ocalcite suggest increase in humidity and lake levels until around 115 ka. During ca. 80 ka to 11 ka the lake records suggest cold conditions as indicated by negligible calcite precipitation and low organic matter content. In Lake Ohrid, �13Corg are complacent; in contrast, Lake Prespa shows consistently higher �13Corg suggesting a low oxidation of 13C-depleted organic matter in agreement with a general deterioration of climate conditions during the glacial. From 15 ka to the onset of the Holocene, calcite and TOC begin to increase, suggesting lake levels were probably low (high �18Ocalcite). In the Holocene (11 ka to present) enhanced productivity is manifested by high calcite and organic matter content. All three cores show an early Holocene characterised by low �18Ocalcite, apart from the very early Holocene phase in Prespa where the lowest �18Ocalcite occurs at ca. 7.5 ka, suggesting a phase of higher lake level only in (the more sensitive) Lake Prespa. From 6 ka, �18Ocalcite suggest progressive aridification, in agreement with many other records in the Mediterranean, although the uppermost sediments in one core records low �18Ocalcite which we interpret as a result of human activity. Overall, the isotope data present here confirm that these two big lakes have captured the large scale, low frequency palaeoclimate variation that is seen in Mediterranean lakes, although in detail there is much palaeoclimate information that could be gained, especially small scale, high frequency differences between this region and the Mediterranean.

Early over-expression of GRP receptors in prostatic carcinogenesis

BACKGROUND The GRP receptor shows high over-expression in prostatic adenocarcinoma and high grade PIN, but low expression in normal prostate glands. This represents the molecular basis for GRP receptor imaging of prostate cancer with radioactive compounds. However, a focal, high density GRP receptor expression can be observed in hitherto uncharacterized prostate glands. METHODS GRP receptors were quantitatively measured with in vitro receptor autoradiography using ¹²⁵I-Tyr⁴ -bombesin in samples from 115 prostates. On successive tissue sections, ¹²⁵I-Tyr⁴ -bombesin autoradiography was compared with H&E staining and MIB-1 and 34βE12 immunohistochemistry. RESULTS On one hand, it was confirmed that GRP receptors were expressed in adenocarcinoma and high grade PIN in high density and high incidence (77% and 73%, respectively), but in normal prostate glands in low density and low frequency (18%). On the other hand, a novel and intriguing observation was the existence of focal non-invasive prostate glands with high GRP receptor density, characterized by low grade nuclear atypia and increased proliferation, compatible with lower grade PIN. There was a significant GRP receptor density gradient (P ≤ 0.005), increasing from normal prostate glands (mean relative optical density, ROD, of ¹²⁵I-Tyr⁴ -bombesin binding: 0.17) over atypical glands without increased MIB-1 labeling (0.28) and atypical glands with increased MIB-1 expression (0.44) to high grade PIN and adenocarcinoma (0.64 and 0.58, respectively). CONCLUSIONS GRP receptor over-expression may be a novel, specific marker of early prostatic neoplastic transformation, arising in low grade PIN, and progressively increasing during malignant progression. This should be considered when interpreting in vivo GRP receptor imaging in males.

Distortion-sensitive insight into the pretransitional behavior of 4- n -octyloxy-4′-cyanobiphenyl (8OCB)

Results of studies of the static and dynamic dielectric properties in rod-like 4-n-octyloxy-4'-cyanobiphenyl (8OCB) with isotropic (I)–nematic (N)–smectic A (SmA)–crystal (Cr) mesomorphism, combined with measurements of the low-frequency nonlinear dielectric effect and heat capacity are presented. The analysis is supported by the derivative-based and distortion-sensitive transformation of experimental data. Evidence for the I–N and N–SmA pretransitional anomalies, indicating the influence of tricritical behavior, is shown. It has also been found that neither the N phase nor the SmA phase are uniform and hallmarks of fluid–fluid crossovers can be detected. The dynamics, tested via the evolution of the primary relaxation time, is clearly non-Arrhenius and described via τ(T) = τc(T−TC)−phgr. In the immediate vicinity of the I–N transition a novel anomaly has been found: Δτ ∝ 1/(T − T*), where T* is the temperature of the virtual continuous transition and Δτ is the excess over the 'background behavior'. Experimental results are confronted with the comprehensive Landau–de Gennes theory based modeling.

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

Steady streaming in a two-dimensional box model of a passive cochlea

Acoustic stimulation of the cochlea leads to a travelling wave in the cochlear fluids and on the basilar membrane (BM). It has long been suspected that this travelling wave leads to a steady streaming flow in the cochlea. Theoretical investigations suggested that the steady streaming might be of physiological relevance. Here, we present a quantitative study of the steady streaming in a computational model of a passive cochlea. The structure of the streaming flow is illustrated and the sources of streaming are closely investigated. We describe a source of streaming which has not been considered in the cochlea by previous authors. This source is also related to a steady axial displacement of the BM which leads to a local stretching of this compliant structure. We present theoretical predictions for the streaming intensity which account for these new phenomena. It is shown that these predictions compare well with our numerical results and that there may be steady streaming velocities of the order of millimetres per second. Our results indicate that steady streaming should be more relevant to low-frequency hearing because the strength of the streaming flow rapidly decreases for higher frequencies.

Occupational exposure to magnetic fields and electric shocks and risk of ALS: The Swiss National Cohort

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been associated with exposures in so-called 'electrical occupations'. It is unclear if this possible link may be explained by exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF) or by electrical shocks. We evaluated ALS mortality in 2000-2008 and exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks in the Swiss National Cohort, using job exposure matrices for occupations at censuses 1990 and 2000. We compared 2.2 million workers with high or medium vs. low exposure to ELF-MF and electrical shocks using Cox proportional hazard models. Results showed that mortality from ALS was higher in people who had medium or high ELF-MF exposure in both censuses (HR 1.55 (95% CI 1.11-2.15)), but closer to unity for electrical shocks (HR 1.17 (95% CI 0.83-1.65)). When both exposures were included in the same model, the HR for ELF-MF changed little (HR 1.56), but the HR for electric shocks was attenuated to 0.97. In conclusion, there was an association between exposure to ELF-MF and mortality from ALS among workers with a higher likelihood of long-term exposure.

Lateral prefrontal cortex and self-control in intertemporal choice.

Disruption of function of left, but not right, lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) with low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) increased choices of immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards. rTMS did not change choices involving only delayed rewards or valuation judgments of immediate and delayed rewards, providing causal evidence for a neural lateral-prefrontal cortex-based self-control mechanism in intertemporal choice.

Disrupting the prefrontal cortex diminishes the human ability to build a good reputation.

Reputation formation pervades human social life. In fact, many people go to great lengths to acquire a good reputation, even though building a good reputation is costly in many cases. Little is known about the neural underpinnings of this important social mechanism, however. In the present study, we show that disruption of the right, but not the left, lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) with low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) diminishes subjects' ability to build a favorable reputation. This effect occurs even though subjects' ability to behave altruistically in the absence of reputation incentives remains intact, and even though they are still able to recognize both the fairness standards necessary for acquiring and the future benefits of a good reputation. Thus, subjects with a disrupted right lateral PFC no longer seem to be able to resist the temptation to defect, even though they know that this has detrimental effects on their future reputation. This suggests an important dissociation between the knowledge about one's own best interests and the ability to act accordingly in social contexts. These results link findings on the neural underpinnings of self-control and temptation with the study of human social behavior, and they may help explain why reputation formation remains less prominent in most other species with less developed prefrontal cortices.

Time-course of "off-line" prefrontal rTMS effects--a PET study.

Low-frequency "off-line" repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over the course of several minutes has attained considerable attention as a research tool in cognitive neuroscience due to its ability to induce functional disruptions of brain areas. This disruptive rTMS effect is highly valuable for revealing a causal relationship between brain and behavior. However, its influence on remote interconnected areas and, more importantly, the duration of the induced neurophysiological effects, remain unknown. These aspects are critical for a study design in the context of cognitive neuroscience. In order to investigate these issues, 12 healthy male subjects underwent 8 H(2)(15)O positron emission tomography (PET) scans after application of long-train low-frequency rTMS to the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Immediately after the stimulation train, regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) increases were present under the stimulation site as well as in other prefrontal cortical areas, including the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) ipsilateral to the stimulation site. The mean increases in rCBF returned to baseline within 9 min. The duration of this unilateral prefrontal rTMS effect on rCBF is of particular interest to those who aim to influence behavior in cognitive paradigms that use an "off-line" approach.

Diminishing risk-taking behavior by modulating activity in the prefrontal cortex: a direct current stimulation study.

Studies have shown increased risk taking in healthy individuals after low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation, known to transiently suppress cortical excitability, over the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). It appears, therefore, plausible that differential modulation of DLPFC activity, increasing the right while decreasing the left, might lead to decreased risk taking, which could hold clinical relevance as excessively risky decision making is observed in clinical populations leading to deleterious consequences. The goal of the present study was to investigate whether risk-taking behaviors could be decreased using concurrent anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) of the right DLPFC, which allows upregulation of brain activity, with cathodal tDCS of the left DLPCF, which downregulates activity. Thirty-six healthy volunteers performed the risk task while they received either anodal over the right with cathodal over the left DLPFC, anodal over the left with cathodal over the right DLPFC, or sham stimulation. We hypothesized that right anodal/left cathodal would decrease risk-taking behavior compared with left anodal/right cathodal or sham stimulation. As predicted, during right anodal/left cathodal stimulation over the DLPFC, participants chose more often the safe prospect compared with the other groups. Moreover, these participants appeared to be insensitive to the reward associated with the prospects. These findings support the notion that the interhemispheric balance of activity across the DLPFCs is critical in decision-making behaviors. Most importantly, the observed suppression of risky behaviors suggests that populations with boundless risk-taking behaviors leading to negative real-life consequences, such as individuals with addiction, might benefit from such neuromodulation-based approaches.

Diminishing reciprocal fairness by disrupting the right prefrontal cortex.

Humans restrain self-interest with moral and social values. They are the only species known to exhibit reciprocal fairness, which implies the punishment of other individuals' unfair behaviors, even if it hurts the punisher's economic self-interest. Reciprocal fairness has been demonstrated in the Ultimatum Game, where players often reject their bargaining partner's unfair offers. Despite progress in recent years, however, little is known about how the human brain limits the impact of selfish motives and implements fair behavior. Here we show that disruption of the right, but not the left, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) by low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation substantially reduces subjects' willingness to reject their partners' intentionally unfair offers, which suggests that subjects are less able to resist the economic temptation to accept these offers. Importantly, however, subjects still judge such offers as very unfair, which indicates that the right DLPFC plays a key role in the implementation of fairness-related behaviors.

Correction of dephasing oscillations in matter-wave interferometry

Vibrations, electromagnetic oscillations, and temperature drifts are among the main reasons for dephasing in matter-wave interferometry. Sophisticated interferometry experiments, e.g., with ions or heavy molecules, often require integration times of several minutes due to the low source intensity or the high velocity selection. Here we present a scheme to suppress the influence of such dephasing mechanisms—especially in the low-frequency regime—by analyzing temporal and spatial particle correlations available in modern detectors. Such correlations can reveal interference properties that would otherwise be washed out due to dephasing by external oscillating signals. The method is shown experimentally in a biprism electron interferometer where a perturbing oscillation is artificially introduced by a periodically varying magnetic field. We provide a full theoretical description of the particle correlations where the perturbing frequency and amplitude can be revealed from the disturbed interferogram. The original spatial fringe pattern without the perturbation can thereby be restored. The technique can be applied to lower the general noise requirements in matter-wave interferometers. It allows for the optimization of electromagnetic shielding and decreases the efforts for vibrational or temperature stabilization.

Identification and characterization of IS1296 in Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides SC and presence in related mycoplasmas

IS1296, a new insertion sequence belonging to the IS3 family of insertion elements has been identified in Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides (Mmm) biotype small colony (SC), the agent of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP). IS1296 is 1485-bp long and has 30-bp inverted repeats. It contains two open reading frames, ORFA and ORFB, which show significant similarities to the ORFs which encode the transposase function of IS elements of the IS3 family, in particular IS150 of Escherichia coli. IS1296 is present in 19 copies in Mmm SC-type strain PG1 and in 18 copies in a recently isolated field strain L2. It seems to transpose at low frequency in Mmm SC. IS1296 is also present in 5 copies in Mmm biotype large colony (LC)-type strain Y-goat, and in two copies in Mycoplasma sp. 'bovine group 7' reference strain PG50. It is, however, not present in other species of the 'mycoides cluster' or other closely related Mycoplasma sp. of ruminants.

Radar investigations of Apollinaris Mons on Mars: Exploring the origin of the fan deposits

Apollinaris Mons is an isolated volcano on Mars straddling the boundary between the southern highlands and the northern plains. One of its most distinctive features is its massive fan-shaped deposit that extends from a breach on its summit to distances of more than 150 km and drapes its entire southern flank. The composition and formation mechanism of these deposits remains controversial. We investigate the radar properties of the fan deposits (FD) of Apollinaris Mons using low-frequency sounding radar data in combination with high-resolution images and crater-size frequency analysis to constrain their inner shape and bulk composition. Our analysis indicates that the FD attains an irregular thickness and is gradually thinner towards their lateral margins. The crater-size frequency analysis shows that they may have undergone repeated resurfacing, which is suggestive of long-term evolution. Our analysis of Shallow Radar (SHARAD) radargrams traversing different sections of the FD reveals multiple and different subsurface interfaces among the radargrams crossing the thinnest part, which suggests a layered and complex inner shape. Our estimates for the bulk real part of the dielectric constant of the FD ranges from 3 to 5, which is consistent with an icy-silicate mixture or pyroclastic composition. Therefore, we conclude that lahars or pyroclastic flows are the most likely mechanism that created the FD, yet we cannot rule out additional contributions from lava flows. A combination of multiple processes is also possible since the deposits appear to have been modified by fluvial processes at a later stage of their formation.