Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

Factors affecting screening for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background and aim. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a frequent cancer. Its prognosis is highly dependent on early diagnosis. Patients at risk for developing HCC should be enrolled in a surveillance programme. Nevertheless, many patients at risk are not regularly screened. We aimed at exploring the characteristics that affect enrolment in a surveillance programme. Material and methods. The characteristics of the patients included in the prospective Bern HCC cohort between August 2010 and August 2011 were analysed according to their participation in a surveillance programme. Results. Among the 82 patients included in the cohort during this period of time, 48 were in a surveillance program before the diagnosis of HCC. Thirty five percent of cirrhotic patients were not screened. Age, sex, level of education, Child-Pugh status and MELD score were similar between the patients who were screened and those who were not screened. Patients with a private insurance and patients treated by a liver specialist were more frequently enrolled in a surveillance program. Sixty seven percent of the screened patients were eligible for curative treatment whereas only 15% of the non-screened patients were. Conclusions. In conclusion the surveillance of patients at risk for developing HCC increases their chances to be diagnosed at an early stage to allow curative treatment. More than one third of cirrhotic patients were not regularly screened. Patients with chronic liver disease should be referred to identify those at risk and enrol them in a surveillance program.

Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is an independent adverse prognostic factor in esophageal adenocarcinoma patients treated with cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Neoadjuvant platin-based therapy is accepted as a standard therapy for advanced esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Patients who respond have a better survival prognosis, but still a significant number of responder patients die from tumor recurrence. Molecular markers for prognosis in neoadjuvantly treated EAC patients have not been identified yet. We investigated the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) in prognosis and chemotherapy resistance in these patients. Two EAC patient cohorts, either treated by neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy followed by surgery (n=86) or by surgical resection (n=46) were analyzed for EGFR protein expression and gene copy number. Data were correlated with clinical and histopathological response, disease-free and overall survival. In case of EGFR overexpression, the prognosis for neoadjuvant chemotherapy responders was poor as in non-responders. Responders had a significantly better disease-free survival than non-responders only if EGFR expression level (p=0.0152) or copy number (p=0.0050) was low. Comparing neoadjuvantly treated patients and primary resection patients, tumors of non-responder patients more frequently exhibited EGFR overexpression, providing evidence that EGFR is a factor for indicating chemotherapy resistance. EGFR overexpression and gene copy number are independent adverse prognostic factors for neoadjuvant chemotherapy-treated EAC patients, particularly for responders. Furthermore, EGFR overexpression is involved in resistance to cisplatin-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Adenocarcinomas of the upper third of the rectum and the rectosigmoid junction seem to have similar prognosis as colon cancers even without radiotherapy, SAKK 40/78

Purpose To investigate the prognosis of adenocarcinomas of the upper third of the rectum and the rectosigmoid-junction without radiotherapy. Methods Patients from a multicenter randomized controlled trial from 1987–1993 on adjuvant chemotherapy for R0-resected colorectal cancers with stage I–III disease were retrospectively allocated: cancers of the lower two-thirds of the rectum (11 cm or less from anal-verge, Group A, n = 205), of the upper-third of the rectum and rectosigmoid-junction (>11–20 cm from anal-verge, Group B, n = 142), and of the colon (>20 cm from anal-verge, Group C, n = 378). The total mesorectal excision (TME) technique had not been introduced yet. The adjuvant chemotherapy turned out to be ineffective. None of the patients received neoadjuvant or adjuvant radiotherapy. Results The patients had a regular follow-up (median, 8.0 years). The 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 0.54 (95%CI, 0.47–0.60) in Group A, 0.68 (95%CI, 0.60–0.75) in Group B, and 0.69 (95%CI, 0.64–0.74) in Group C. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 0.64 (95%CI, 0.57–0.71) in Group A, 0.79 (95%CI, 0.71–0.85) in Group B, and 0.77 (95%CI, 0.73–0.81) in Group C. Compared with Group C, patients in Group A had a significantly worse OS (hazard ratio [HR] for death 2.10) and a worse DFS (HR for relapse/death 1.93), while patients in Group B had a similar OS (HR 1.12) and DFS (HR 1.07). Conclusions Adenocarcinomas of the upper third of the rectum and the rectosigmoid-junction seem to have similar prognosis as colon cancers. Even for surgeons not familiar with the TME technique, preoperative radiotherapy may be avoided for most rectosigmoid cancers above 11 cm from anal-verge.

Potential influence of the anesthetic technique used during open radical prostatectomy on prostate cancer-related outcome: a retrospective study

Recently published studies suggest that the anesthetic technique used during oncologic surgery affects cancer recurrence. To evaluate the effect of anesthetic technique on disease progression and long-term survival, we compared patients receiving general anesthesia plus intraoperative and postoperative thoracic epidural analgesia with patients receiving general anesthesia alone undergoing open retropubic radical prostatectomy with extended pelvic lymph node dissection.

Targeting phosphoinositide 3-kinase signalling in lung cancer

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide and more than 1 million people annually die in consequence of lung cancer. Although an improvement in lung cancer treatment could be achieved, especially in the last decade, the development of additional therapeutic strategies is urgently required in order to provide improved survival benefit for patients. Lung cancer formation is caused by genetic modifications commonly caused by tobacco smoking. Numerous studies have demonstrated the role of extracellular growth factors in lung cancer cell proliferation, metastasis, and chemoresistance. Mutations and amplifications in molecules related to receptor tyrosine signalling, such as EGFR, ErbB2, c-Met, c-Kit, VEGFR, PI3K, and PTEN are only some of the alterations known to contribute to the development of lung cancer. The phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) pathway, fundamental for cell development, growth, and survival, is known to be frequently altered in neoplasia, including carcinomas of the lung. Based on the high frequency of alterations, which include mutations and amplifications, leading to over-activation of certain upstream/downstream mediators, targeting components of the PI3K signalling pathway is considered to be a promising therapeutic approach in cancer treatment. In this article we will summarize the current knowledge about the involvement of PI3K signalling in lung cancer and discuss the development of targeted therapies involving PI3K pathway inhibitors.

Expression profiling of stem cell-related genes in neoadjuvant-treated gastric cancer: a NOTCH2, GSK3B and β-catenin gene signature predicts survival

Cancer stem cell (CSC) based gene expression signatures are associated with prognosis in various tumour types and CSCs are suggested to be particularly drug resistant. The aim of our study was first, to determine the prognostic significance of CSC-related gene expression in residual tumour cells of neoadjuvant-treated gastric cancer (GC) patients. Second, we wished to examine, whether expression alterations between pre- and post-therapeutic tumour samples exist, consistent with an enrichment of drug resistant tumour cells. The expression of 44 genes was analysed in 63 formalin-fixed, paraffin embedded tumour specimens with partial tumour regression (10-50% residual tumour) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy by quantitative real time PCR low-density arrays. A signature of combined GSK3B(high), β-catenin (CTNNB1)(high) and NOTCH2(low) expression was strongly correlated with better patient survival (p<0.001). A prognostic relevance of these genes was also found analysing publically available gene expression data. The expression of 9 genes was compared between pre-therapeutic biopsies and post-therapeutic resected specimens. A significant post-therapeutic increase in NOTCH2, LGR5 and POU5F1 expression was found in tumours with different tumour regression grades. No significant alterations were observed for GSK3B and CTNNB1. Immunohistochemical analysis demonstrated a chemotherapy-associated increase in the intensity of NOTCH2 staining, but not in the percentage of NOTCH2. Taken together, the GSK3B, CTNNB1 and NOTCH2 expression signature is a novel, promising prognostic parameter for GC. The results of the differential expression analysis indicate a prominent role for NOTCH2 and chemotherapy resistance in GC, which seems to be related to an effect of the drugs on NOTCH2 expression rather than to an enrichment of NOTCH2 expressing tumour cells.

Targeting the phosphoinositide 3-kinase p110-α isoform impairs cell proliferation, survival, and tumor growth in small cell lung cancer

The phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) pathway is fundamental for cell proliferation and survival and is frequently altered and activated in neoplasia, including carcinomas of the lung. In this study, we investigated the potential of targeting the catalytic class I(A) PI3K isoforms in small cell lung cancer (SCLC), which is the most aggressive of all lung cancer types.

The influence of the surgeon's and the hospital's caseload on survival and local recurrence after colorectal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND: Past studies have identified surgeon- and institution- related characteristics as prognostic factors in colorectal cancer surgery. The present work assesses the influence of the surgeon's and the hospital's caseload on long-term results of colorectal cancer surgery. METHODS: The data on 2706 patients from 2, randomized, colorectal cancer trials (Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research [SAKK] 40/81, SAKK 40/87) investigating adjuvant intraportal and systemic chemotherapy and 1 concurrent registration study (SAKK 40/88) were reviewed. A first analysis included 1809 eligible, nonmetastatic patients from all 3 studies. A subsequent subgroup analysis included 915 eligible patients from both randomized trials. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local recurrence (LR) were analyzed in multivariate models taking into account the possible effect of clustering. The main potential covariates were surgeon's annual caseload (>5 operations/year vs < or =5 operations/year), hospital's annual caseload (>26 operations/year vs < or =26 operations/year), tumor site, T stage, and nodal status. RESULTS: Primary analysis of all 3 studies combined found a high surgeon's caseload to be positively associated with OS (P = .025) and marginally with DFS (P = .058). Separate analysis for each trial, however, showed that a high surgeon's caseload was beneficial for outcome in both randomized trials but not in the registration study. A subgroup analysis of 915 patients with 376 rectal and 539 colonic primaries from both randomized trials, therefore, was performed. Neither age, gender, year of operation, adjuvant chemotherapy (intraportal vs systemic vs operation alone), hospital academic status (university vs non-university), training status of the surgeon (certified surgeon vs surgeon-in-training), nor inclusion in 1 of the 2 randomized trials (SAKK 40/81 vs SAKK 40/87) was a significant predictor of outcome. However, both high surgeon's and high hospital's annual caseloads were independent, beneficial prognostic factors for OS (P = .0003, P = .044) and DFS (P = .0008, P = .020), and marginally significant factors for LR (P = .057, P = .055). CONCLUSIONS: High surgeon's and hospital's annual caseloads are strong, independent prognostic factors for extending overall and disease-free survival and reducing the rate of local recurrence in 2 randomized colorectal cancer trials.

Epidural Analgesia during Open Radical Prostatectomy Does Not Improve Long-Term Cancer-Related Outcome: A Retrospective Study in Patients with Advanced Prostate Cancer

Background A beneficial effect of regional anesthesia on cancer related outcome in various solid tumors has been proposed. The data on prostate cancer is conflicting and reports on long-term cancer specific survival are lacking. Methods In a retrospective, single-center study, outcomes of 148 consecutive patients with locally advanced prostate cancer pT3/4 who underwent retropubic radical prostatectomy (RRP) with general anesthesia combined with intra- and postoperative epidural analgesia (n=67) or with postoperative ketorolac-morphine analgesia (n=81) were reviewed. The median observation time was 14.00 years (range 10.87-17.75 yrs). Biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free, local and distant recurrence-free, cancer-specific, and overall survival were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier technique. Multivariate Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to analyze clinicopathologic variables associated with disease progression and death. Results The survival estimates for BCR-free, local and distant recurrence-free, cancer-specific survival and overall survival did not differ between the two groups (P=0.64, P=0.75, P=0.18, P=0.32 and P=0.07). For both groups, higher preoperative PSA (hazard ratio (HR) 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.02, P<0.0001), increased specimen Gleason score (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.46, P=0.007) and positive nodal status (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.03-2.67, P=0.04) were associated with higher risk of BCR. Increased specimen Gleason score predicted death from prostate cancer (HR 2.46, 95% CI 1.65-3.68, P<0.0001). Conclusions General anaesthesia combined with epidural analgesia did not reduce the risk of cancer progression or improve survival after RRP for prostate cancer in this group of patients at high risk for disease progression with a median observation time of 14.00 yrs.

Tumor regression grade of urothelial bladder cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy: a novel and successful strategy to predict survival.

Histopathologic tumor regression grades (TRGs) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy predict survival in different cancers. In bladder cancer, corresponding studies have not been conducted. Fifty-six patients with advanced invasive urothelial bladder cancer received neoadjuvant chemotherapy before cystectomy and lymphadenectomy. TRGs were defined as follows: TRG1: complete tumor regression; TRG2: >50% tumor regression; TRG3: 50% or less tumor regression. Separate TRGs were assigned for primary tumors and corresponding lymph nodes. The prognostic impact of these 2 TRGs, the highest (dominant) TRG per patient, and competing tumor features reflecting tumor regression (ypT/ypN stage, maximum diameter of the residual tumor) were determined. Tumor characteristics in initial transurethral resection of the bladder specimens were tested for response prediction. The frequency of TRGs 1, 2, and 3 in the primary tumors were n=16, n=19, and n=21; corresponding data from the lymph nodes were n=31, n=9, and n=16. Interobserver agreement in determination of the TRG was strong (κ=0.8). Univariately, all evaluated parameters were significantly (P≤0.001) related to overall survival; however, the segregation of the Kaplan-Meier curves was best for the dominant TRG. In multivariate analysis, only dominant TRG predicted overall survival independently (P=0.035). In transurethral resection specimens of the chemotherapy-naive bladder cancer, the only tumor feature with significant (P<0.03) predictive value for therapy response was a high proliferation rate. In conclusion, among all parameters reflecting tumor regression, the dominant TRG was the only independent risk factor. A favorable chemotherapy response is associated with a high proliferation rate in the initial chemotherapy-naive bladder cancer. This feature might help personalize neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Relative survival is an adequate estimate of cancer-specific survival: baseline mortality-adjusted 10-year survival of 771 rectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND The objective of the present investigation is to assess the baseline mortality-adjusted 10-year survival of rectal cancer patients. METHODS Ten-year survival was analyzed in 771 consecutive American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage I-IV rectal cancer patients undergoing open resection between 1991 and 2008 using risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusting for population-based baseline mortality. RESULTS The median follow-up of patients alive was 8.8 years. The 10-year relative, overall, and cancer-specific survival were 66.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 61.3-72.1], 48.7% (95% CI 44.9-52.8), and 66.4% (95% CI 62.5-70.5), respectively. In the entire patient sample (stage I-IV) 47.3% and in patients with stage I-III 33.6 % of all deaths were related to rectal cancer during the 10-year period. For patients with AJCC stage I rectal cancer, the 10-year overall survival was 96% and did not significantly differ from an average population after matching for gender, age, and calendar year (p = 0.151). For the more advanced tumor stages, however, survival was significantly impaired (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Retrospective investigations of survival after rectal cancer resection should adjust for baseline mortality because a large fraction of deaths is not cancer related. Stage I rectal cancer patients, compared to patients with more advanced disease stages, have a relative survival close to 100% and can thus be considered cured. Using this relative-survival approach, the real public health burden caused by rectal cancer can reliably be analyzed and reported.

Adjuvant ovarian suppression in premenopausal breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Suppression of ovarian estrogen production reduces the recurrence of hormone-receptor-positive early breast cancer in premenopausal women, but its value when added to tamoxifen is uncertain. METHODS We randomly assigned 3066 premenopausal women, stratified according to prior receipt or nonreceipt of chemotherapy, to receive 5 years of tamoxifen, tamoxifen plus ovarian suppression, or exemestane plus ovarian suppression. The primary analysis tested the hypothesis that tamoxifen plus ovarian suppression would improve disease-free survival, as compared with tamoxifen alone. In the primary analysis, 46.7% of the patients had not received chemotherapy previously, and 53.3% had received chemotherapy and remained premenopausal. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 67 months, the estimated disease-free survival rate at 5 years was 86.6% in the tamoxifen-ovarian suppression group and 84.7% in the tamoxifen group (hazard ratio for disease recurrence, second invasive cancer, or death, 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 1.04; P=0.10). Multivariable allowance for prognostic factors suggested a greater treatment effect with tamoxifen plus ovarian suppression than with tamoxifen alone (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.98). Most recurrences occurred in patients who had received prior chemotherapy, among whom the rate of freedom from breast cancer at 5 years was 82.5% in the tamoxifen-ovarian suppression group and 78.0% in the tamoxifen group (hazard ratio for recurrence, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.02). At 5 years, the rate of freedom from breast cancer was 85.7% in the exemestane-ovarian suppression group (hazard ratio for recurrence vs. tamoxifen, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS Adding ovarian suppression to tamoxifen did not provide a significant benefit in the overall study population. However, for women who were at sufficient risk for recurrence to warrant adjuvant chemotherapy and who remained premenopausal, the addition of ovarian suppression improved disease outcomes. Further improvement was seen with the use of exemestane plus ovarian suppression. (Funded by Pfizer and others; SOFT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00066690.).

Adjuvant exemestane with ovarian suppression in premenopausal breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Adjuvant therapy with an aromatase inhibitor improves outcomes, as compared with tamoxifen, in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer. METHODS In two phase 3 trials, we randomly assigned premenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive early breast cancer to the aromatase inhibitor exemestane plus ovarian suppression or tamoxifen plus ovarian suppression for a period of 5 years. Suppression of ovarian estrogen production was achieved with the use of the gonadotropin-releasing-hormone agonist triptorelin, oophorectomy, or ovarian irradiation. The primary analysis combined data from 4690 patients in the two trials. RESULTS After a median follow-up of 68 months, disease-free survival at 5 years was 91.1% in the exemestane-ovarian suppression group and 87.3% in the tamoxifen-ovarian suppression group (hazard ratio for disease recurrence, second invasive cancer, or death, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 0.85; P<0.001). The rate of freedom from breast cancer at 5 years was 92.8% in the exemestane-ovarian suppression group, as compared with 88.8% in the tamoxifen-ovarian suppression group (hazard ratio for recurrence, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.80; P<0.001). With 194 deaths (4.1% of the patients), overall survival did not differ significantly between the two groups (hazard ratio for death in the exemestane-ovarian suppression group, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.51; P=0.37). Selected adverse events of grade 3 or 4 were reported for 30.6% of the patients in the exemestane-ovarian suppression group and 29.4% of those in the tamoxifen-ovarian suppression group, with profiles similar to those for postmenopausal women. CONCLUSIONS In premenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive early breast cancer, adjuvant treatment with exemestane plus ovarian suppression, as compared with tamoxifen plus ovarian suppression, significantly reduced recurrence. (Funded by Pfizer and others; TEXT and SOFT ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00066703 and NCT00066690, respectively.).

Very long-term survival patterns of young patients treated with radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE In patients with a long life expectancy with high-risk (HR) prostate cancer (PCa), the chance to die from PCa is not negligible and may change significantly according to the time elapsed from surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term survival patterns in young patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) for HRPCa. MATERIALS AND METHODS Within a multiinstitutional cohort, 600 young patients (≤59 years) treated with RP between 1987 and 2012 for HRPCa (defined as at least one of the following adverse characteristics: prostate specific antigen>20, cT3 or higher, biopsy Gleason sum 8-10) were identified. Smoothed cumulative incidence plot was performed to assess cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause mortality (OCM) rates at 10, 15, and 20 years after RP. The same analyses were performed to assess the 5-year probability of CSM and OCM in patients who survived 5, 10, and 15 years after RP. A multivariable competing risk regression model was fitted to identify predictors of CSM and OCM. RESULTS The 10-, 15- and 20-year CSM and OCM rates were 11.6% and 5.5% vs. 15.5% and 13.5% vs. 18.4% and 19.3%, respectively. The 5-year probability of CSM and OCM rates among patients who survived at 5, 10, and 15 years after RP, were 6.4% and 2.7% vs. 4.6% and 9.6% vs. 4.2% and 8.2%, respectively. Year of surgery, pathological stage and Gleason score, surgical margin status and lymph node invasion were the major determinants of CSM (all P≤0.03). Conversely, none of the covariates was significantly associated with OCM (all P≥ 0.09). CONCLUSIONS Very long-term cancer control in young high-risk patients after RP is highly satisfactory. The probability of dying from PCa in young patients is the leading cause of death during the first 10 years of survivorship after RP. Thereafter, mortality not related to PCa became the main cause of death. Consequently, surgery should be consider among young patients with high-risk disease and strict PCa follow-up should enforce during the first 10 years of survivorship after RP.