Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

Assessment of smoking behaviour in a dental setting: a 1-year follow-up study using self-reported questionnaire data and exhaled carbon monoxide levels.

OBJECTIVES This study analyses the changes in smoking habits over the course of 1 year in a group of patients referred to an oral medicine unit. MATERIALS AND METHODS Smoking history and behaviour were analysed at baseline and after 1 year based on a self-reported questionnaire and on exhaled carbon monoxide levels [in parts per million (ppm)]. During the initial examination, all smokers underwent tobacco use prevention and cessation counselling. RESULTS Of the initial group of 121 patients, 98 were examined at the follow-up visit. At the baseline examination, 33 patients (33.67 %) indicated that they were current smokers. One year later, 14 patients (42.24 % out of the 33 smokers of the initial examination) indicated that they had attempted to stop smoking at least once over the follow-up period and 15.15 % (5 patients) had quit smoking. The mean number of cigarettes smoked per day by current smokers decreased from 13.10 to 12.18 (p = 0.04). The exhaled CO level measurements showed very good correlation with a Spearman's coefficient 0.9880 for the initial visit, and 0.9909 for the follow-up examination. For current smokers, the consumption of one additional cigarette per day elevated the CO measurements by 0.77 ppm (p < 0.0001) at the baseline examination and by 0.84 ppm (p < 0.0001) at the 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS In oral health care, where smoking cessation is an important aspect of the treatment strategy, the measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide shows a very good correlation with a self-reported smoking habit. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide is a non-invasive, simple and objective measurement technique for documenting and monitoring smoking cessation and reduction.

Transfusion efficacy of apheresis platelet concentrates irradiated at the day of transfusion is significantly superior compared to platelets irradiated in advance.

BACKGROUND Gamma irradiation is currently the standard care to avoid transfusion-associated graft-versus-host disease. Guidelines on gamma irradiation of blood components state that platelets (PLTs) can be irradiated at any stage in their 5-day storage and can thereafter be stored up to their normal shelf life of 5 days after collection. In this study, we explored whether the timing of irradiation has an effect on transfusion efficacy of apheresis PLT concentrates (APCs). METHODS Based on the 1-hour percent PLT recovery (PPR1h), transfusion efficacy of 1,000 eligible APCs transfused to 144 children were evaluated retrospectively. PPR1h was compared in transfused APCs irradiated at the day of transfusion and APCs irradiated in advance. RESULTS In univariate analysis, transfusion efficacy of APCs irradiated in advance was significantly lower than that of APCs irradiated at the day of transfusion (mean PPR1h 27.7 vs. 35.0%; p = 0.007). This was confirmed in multivariate analysis (p = 0.030). Compared to non-irradiated APCs, transfusion efficacy of APCs irradiated at the day of transfusion was not significantly inferior (mean difference -2.8%; 95% CI -6.1 to 0.5%; p = 0.092), but APCs irradiated in advance were clearly less efficient (mean difference -8.1%; 95% CI -12.2 to -4.0%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION Our data strongly support that APCs should not be irradiated in advance, 1.e., ≥24 h before transfusion.

Outcomes after endovascular or open repair for degenerative descending thoracic aortic aneurysm using linked hospital data.

BACKGROUND The population-based effectiveness of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) versus open surgery for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm remains in doubt. METHODS Patients aged over 50 years, without a history of aortic dissection, undergoing repair of a thoracic aortic aneurysm between 2006 and 2011 were assessed using mortality-linked individual patient data from Hospital Episode Statistics (England). The principal outcomes were 30-day operative mortality, long-term survival (5 years) and aortic-related reinterventions. TEVAR and open repair were compared using crude and multivariable models that adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS Overall, 759 patients underwent thoracic aortic aneurysm repair, mainly for intact aneurysms (618, 81·4 per cent). Median ages of TEVAR and open cohorts were 73 and 71 years respectively (P < 0·001), with more men undergoing TEVAR (P = 0·004). For intact aneurysms, the operative mortality rate was similar for TEVAR and open repair (6·5 versus 7·6 per cent; odds ratio 0·79, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0·41 to 1·49), but the 5-year survival rate was significantly worse after TEVAR (54·2 versus 65·6 per cent; adjusted hazard ratio 1·45, 95 per cent c.i. 1·08 to 1·94). After 5 years, aortic-related mortality was similar in the two groups, but cardiopulmonary mortality was higher after TEVAR. TEVAR was associated with more aortic-related reinterventions (23·1 versus 14·3 per cent; adjusted HR 1·70, 95 per cent c.i. 1·11 to 2·60). There were 141 procedures for ruptured thoracic aneurysm (97 TEVAR, 44 open), with TEVAR showing no significant advantage in terms of operative mortality. CONCLUSION In England, operative mortality for degenerative descending thoracic aneurysm was similar after either TEVAR or open repair. Patients who had TEVAR appeared to have a higher reintervention rate and worse long-term survival, possibly owing to cardiopulmonary morbidity and other selection bias.

Intra-Rater and Inter-Rater Reliability of a Medical Record Abstraction Study on Transition of Care after Childhood Cancer.

BACKGROUND The abstraction of data from medical records is a widespread practice in epidemiological research. However, studies using this means of data collection rarely report reliability. Within the Transition after Childhood Cancer Study (TaCC) which is based on a medical record abstraction, we conducted a second independent abstraction of data with the aim to assess a) intra-rater reliability of one rater at two time points; b) the possible learning effects between these two time points compared to a gold-standard; and c) inter-rater reliability. METHOD Within the TaCC study we conducted a systematic medical record abstraction in the 9 Swiss clinics with pediatric oncology wards. In a second phase we selected a subsample of medical records in 3 clinics to conduct a second independent abstraction. We then assessed intra-rater reliability at two time points, the learning effect over time (comparing each rater at two time-points with a gold-standard) and the inter-rater reliability of a selected number of variables. We calculated percentage agreement and Cohen's kappa. FINDINGS For the assessment of the intra-rater reliability we included 154 records (80 for rater 1; 74 for rater 2). For the inter-rater reliability we could include 70 records. Intra-rater reliability was substantial to excellent (Cohen's kappa 0-6-0.8) with an observed percentage agreement of 75%-95%. In all variables learning effects were observed. Inter-rater reliability was substantial to excellent (Cohen's kappa 0.70-0.83) with high agreement ranging from 86% to 100%. CONCLUSIONS Our study showed that data abstracted from medical records are reliable. Investigating intra-rater and inter-rater reliability can give confidence to draw conclusions from the abstracted data and increase data quality by minimizing systematic errors.

Evaluation of Three State-of-the-Art Classifiers for Recognition of Activities of Daily Living from Smart Home Ambient Data

Smart homes for the aging population have recently started attracting the attention of the research community. The "health state" of smart homes is comprised of many different levels; starting with the physical health of citizens, it also includes longer-term health norms and outcomes, as well as the arena of positive behavior changes. One of the problems of interest is to monitor the activities of daily living (ADL) of the elderly, aiming at their protection and well-being. For this purpose, we installed passive infrared (PIR) sensors to detect motion in a specific area inside a smart apartment and used them to collect a set of ADL. In a novel approach, we describe a technology that allows the ground truth collected in one smart home to train activity recognition systems for other smart homes. We asked the users to label all instances of all ADL only once and subsequently applied data mining techniques to cluster in-home sensor firings. Each cluster would therefore represent the instances of the same activity. Once the clusters were associated to their corresponding activities, our system was able to recognize future activities. To improve the activity recognition accuracy, our system preprocessed raw sensor data by identifying overlapping activities. To evaluate the recognition performance from a 200-day dataset, we implemented three different active learning classification algorithms and compared their performance: naive Bayesian (NB), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). Based on our results, the RF classifier recognized activities with an average specificity of 96.53%, a sensitivity of 68.49%, a precision of 74.41% and an F-measure of 71.33%, outperforming both the NB and SVM classifiers. Further clustering markedly improved the results of the RF classifier. An activity recognition system based on PIR sensors in conjunction with a clustering classification approach was able to detect ADL from datasets collected from different homes. Thus, our PIR-based smart home technology could improve care and provide valuable information to better understand the functioning of our societies, as well as to inform both individual and collective action in a smart city scenario.

Listeria monocytogenes spreads within the brain by actin-based intra-axonal migration

Listeria monocytogenes rhombencephalitis is a severe progressive disease despite a swift intrathecal immune response. Based on previous observations, we hypothesized that the disease progresses by intra-axonal spread within the central nervous system. To test this hypothesis, neuroanatomical mapping of lesions, immunofluorescence analysis, and electron microscopy were performed on brains of ruminants with naturally occurring rhombencephalitis. In addition, infection assays were performed in bovine brain cell cultures. Mapping of lesions revealed a consistent pattern with a preferential affection of certain nuclear areas and white matter tracts, indicating that Listeria monocytogenes spreads intra-axonally within the brain along interneuronal connections. These results were supported by immunofluorescence and ultrastructural data localizing Listeria monocytogenes inside axons and dendrites associated with networks of fibrillary structures consistent with actin tails. In vitro infection assays confirmed that bacteria were moving within axon-like processes by employing their actin tail machinery. Remarkably, in vivo, neutrophils invaded the axonal space and the axon itself, apparently by moving between split myelin lamellae of intact myelin sheaths. This intra-axonal invasion of neutrophils was associated with various stages of axonal degeneration and bacterial phagocytosis. Paradoxically, the ensuing adaxonal microabscesses appeared to provide new bacterial replication sites, thus supporting further bacterial spread. In conclusion, intra-axonal bacterial migration and possibly also the innate immune response play an important role in the intracerebral spread of the agent and hence the progression of listeric rhombencephalitis.

Intra-articular corticosteroid for knee osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND Knee osteoarthritis is a leading cause of chronic pain, disability, and decreased quality of life. Despite the long-standing use of intra-articular corticosteroids, there is an ongoing debate about their benefits and safety. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2005. OBJECTIVES To determine the benefits and harms of intra-articular corticosteroids compared with sham or no intervention in people with knee osteoarthritis in terms of pain, physical function, quality of life, and safety. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and EMBASE (from inception to 3 February 2015), checked trial registers, conference proceedings, reference lists, and contacted authors. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that compared intra-articular corticosteroids with sham injection or no treatment in people with knee osteoarthritis. We applied no language restrictions. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS We calculated standardised mean differences (SMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for pain, function, quality of life, joint space narrowing, and risk ratios (RRs) for safety outcomes. We combined trials using an inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. MAIN RESULTS We identified 27 trials (13 new studies) with 1767 participants in this update. We graded the quality of the evidence as 'low' for all outcomes because treatment effect estimates were inconsistent with great variation across trials, pooled estimates were imprecise and did not rule out relevant or irrelevant clinical effects, and because most trials had a high or unclear risk of bias. Intra-articular corticosteroids appeared to be more beneficial in pain reduction than control interventions (SMD -0.40, 95% CI -0.58 to -0.22), which corresponds to a difference in pain scores of 1.0 cm on a 10-cm visual analogue scale between corticosteroids and sham injection and translates into a number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) of 8 (95% CI 6 to 13). An I(2) statistic of 68% indicated considerable between-trial heterogeneity. A visual inspection of the funnel plot suggested some asymmetry (asymmetry coefficient -1.21, 95%CI -3.58 to 1.17). When stratifying results according to length of follow-up, benefits were moderate at 1 to 2 weeks after end of treatment (SMD -0.48, 95% CI -0.70 to -0.27), small to moderate at 4 to 6 weeks (SMD -0.41, 95% CI -0.61 to -0.21), small at 13 weeks (SMD -0.22, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.00), and no evidence of an effect at 26 weeks (SMD -0.07, 95% CI -0.25 to 0.11). An I(2) statistic of ≥ 63% indicated a moderate to large degree of between-trial heterogeneity up to 13 weeks after end of treatment (P for heterogeneity≤0.001), and an I(2) of 0% indicated low heterogeneity at 26 weeks (P=0.43). There was evidence of lower treatment effects in trials that randomised on average at least 50 participants per group (P=0.05) or at least 100 participants per group (P=0.013), in trials that used concomittant viscosupplementation (P=0.08), and in trials that used concomitant joint lavage (P≤0.001).Corticosteroids appeared to be more effective in function improvement than control interventions (SMD -0.33, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.09), which corresponds to a difference in functions scores of -0.7 units on standardised Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) disability scale ranging from 0 to 10 and translates into a NNTB of 10 (95% CI 7 to 33). An I(2) statistic of 69% indicated a moderate to large degree of between-trial heterogeneity. A visual inspection of the funnel plot suggested asymmetry (asymmetry coefficient -4.07, 95% CI -8.08 to -0.05). When stratifying results according to length of follow-up, benefits were small to moderate at 1 to 2 weeks after end of treatment (SMD -0.43, 95% CI -0.72 to -0.14), small to moderate at 4 to 6 weeks (SMD -0.36, 95% CI -0.63 to -0.09), and no evidence of an effect at 13 weeks (SMD -0.13, 95% CI -0.37 to 0.10) or at 26 weeks (SMD 0.06, 95% CI -0.16 to 0.28). An I(2) statistic of ≥ 62% indicated a moderate to large degree of between-trial heterogeneity up to 13 weeks after end of treatment (P for heterogeneity≤0.004), and an I(2) of 0% indicated low heterogeneity at 26 weeks (P=0.52). We found evidence of lower treatment effects in trials that randomised on average at least 50 participants per group (P=0.023), in unpublished trials (P=0.023), in trials that used non-intervention controls (P=0.031), and in trials that used concomitant viscosupplementation (P=0.06).Participants on corticosteroids were 11% less likely to experience adverse events, but confidence intervals included the null effect (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.23, I(2)=0%). Participants on corticosteroids were 67% less likely to withdraw because of adverse events, but confidence intervals were wide and included the null effect (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.05 to 2.07, I(2)=0%). Participants on corticosteroids were 27% less likely to experience any serious adverse event, but confidence intervals were wide and included the null effect (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.15 to 2.67, I(2)=0%).We found no evidence of an effect of corticosteroids on quality of life compared to control (SMD -0.01, 95% CI -0.30 to 0.28, I(2)=0%). There was also no evidence of an effect of corticosteroids on joint space narrowing compared to control interventions (SMD -0.02, 95% CI -0.49 to 0.46). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Whether there are clinically important benefits of intra-articular corticosteroids after one to six weeks remains unclear in view of the overall quality of the evidence, considerable heterogeneity between trials, and evidence of small-study effects. A single trial included in this review described adequate measures to minimise biases and did not find any benefit of intra-articular corticosteroids.In this update of the systematic review and meta-analysis, we found most of the identified trials that compared intra-articular corticosteroids with sham or non-intervention control small and hampered by low methodological quality. An analysis of multiple time points suggested that effects decrease over time, and our analysis provided no evidence that an effect remains six months after a corticosteroid injection.

Estimating Intra-Party Preferences: Comparing Speeches to Votes

Well-established methods exist for measuring party positions, but reliable means for estimating intra-party preferences remain underdeveloped. While most efforts focus on estimating the ideal points of individual legislators based on inductive scaling of roll call votes, this data suffers from two problems: selection bias due to unrecorded votes and strong party discipline, which tends to make voting a strategic rather than a sincere indication of preferences. By contrast, legislative speeches are relatively unconstrained, as party leaders are less likely to punish MPs for speaking freely as long as they vote with the party line. Yet, the differences between roll call estimations and text scalings remain essentially unexplored, despite the growing application of statistical analysis of textual data to measure policy preferences. Our paper addresses this lacuna by exploiting a rich feature of the Swiss legislature: on most bills, legislators both vote and speak many times. Using this data, we compare text-based scaling of ideal points to vote-based scaling from a crucial piece of energy legislation. Our findings confirm that text scalings reveal larger intra-party differences than roll calls. Using regression models, we further explain the differences between roll call and text scalings by attributing differences to constituency-level preferences for energy policy.

Lake ice phenology from AVHRR data for European lakes: An automated two-step extraction method

Several lake ice phenology studies from satellite data have been undertaken. However, the availability of long-term lake freeze-thaw-cycles, required to understand this proxy for climate variability and change, is scarce for European lakes. Long time series from space observations are limited to few satellite sensors. Data of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) are used in account of their unique potential as they offer each day global coverage from the early 1980s expectedly until 2022. An automatic two-step extraction was developed, which makes use of near-infrared reflectance values and thermal infrared derived lake surface water temperatures to extract lake ice phenology dates. In contrast to other studies utilizing thermal infrared, the thresholds are derived from the data itself, making it unnecessary to define arbitrary or lake specific thresholds. Two lakes in the Baltic region and a steppe lake on the Austrian–Hungarian border were selected. The later one was used to test the applicability of the approach to another climatic region for the time period 1990 to 2012. A comparison of the extracted event dates with in situ data provided good agreements of about 10 d mean absolute error. The two-step extraction was found to be applicable for European lakes in different climate regions and could fill existing data gaps in future applications. The extension of the time series to the full AVHRR record length (early 1980 until today) with adequate length for trend estimations would be of interest to assess climate variability and change. Furthermore, the two-step extraction itself is not sensor-specific and could be applied to other sensors with equivalent near- and thermal infrared spectral bands.

Detection of Malnutrition in Patients Undergoing Maintenance Haemodialysis: A Quantitative Data Analysis on 12 Parameters

Background Protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM) is common in people with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing maintenance haemodialysis (MHD) and correlates strongly with mortality. To this day, there is no gold standard for detecting PEM in patients on MHD. Aim of Study The aim of this study was to evaluate if Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), handgrip strength measurement, mid-upper arm muscle area (MUAMA), triceps skin fold measurement (TSF), serum albumin, normalised protein catabolic rate (nPCR), Kt/V and eKt/V, dry body weight, body mass index (BMI), age and time since start on MHD are relevant for assessing PEM in patients on MHD. Methods The predictive value of the selected parameters on mortality and mortality or weight loss of more than 5% was assessed. Quantitative data analysis of the 12 parameters in the same patients on MHD in autumn 2009 (n = 64) and spring 2011 (n = 40) with paired statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results Paired data analysis showed significant reduction of dry body weight, BMI and nPCR. Kt/Vtot did not change, eKt/v and hand grip strength measurements were significantly higher in spring 2011. No changes were detected in TSF, serum albumin, NRS-2002 and MUAMA. Serum albumin was shown to be the only predictor of death and of the combined endpoint “death or weight loss of more than 5%”. Conclusion We now screen patients biannually for serum albumin, nPCR, Kt/V, handgrip measurement of the shunt-free arm, dry body weight, age and time since initiation of MHD.

Accuracy of linear measurements using three imaging modalities: two lateral cephalograms and one 3D model from CBCT data

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of linear measurements on three imaging modalities: lateral cephalograms from a cephalometric machine with a 3 m source-to-mid-sagittal-plane distance (SMD), from a machine with 1.5 m SMD and 3D models from cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) data. METHODS Twenty-one dry human skulls were used. Lateral cephalograms were taken, using two cephalometric devices: one with a 3 m SMD and one with a 1.5 m SMD. CBCT scans were taken by 3D Accuitomo® 170, and 3D surface models were created in Maxilim® software. Thirteen linear measurements were completed twice by two observers with a 4 week interval. Direct physical measurements by a digital calliper were defined as the gold standard. Statistical analysis was performed. RESULTS Nasion-Point A was significantly different from the gold standard in all methods. More statistically significant differences were found on the measurements of the 3 m SMD cephalograms in comparison to the other methods. Intra- and inter-observer agreement based on 3D measurements was slightly better than others. LIMITATIONS Dry human skulls without soft tissues were used. Therefore, the results have to be interpreted with caution, as they do not fully represent clinical conditions. CONCLUSIONS 3D measurements resulted in a better observer agreement. The accuracy of the measurements based on CBCT and 1.5 m SMD cephalogram was better than a 3 m SMD cephalogram. These findings demonstrated the linear measurements accuracy and reliability of 3D measurements based on CBCT data when compared to 2D techniques. Future studies should focus on the implementation of 3D cephalometry in clinical practice.

The Effect of Incidental Consolidation on Management and Outcomes in COPD Exacerbations: Data from the European COPD Audit

OBJECTIVE There is controversy regarding the significance of radiological consolidation in the context of COPD exacerbation (eCOPD). While some studies into eCOPD exclude these cases, consolidation is a common feature of eCOPD admissions in real practice. This study aims to address the question of whether consolidation in eCOPD is a distinct clinical phenotype with implications for management decisions and outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS The European COPD Audit was carried out in 384 hospitals from 13 European countries between 2010 and 2011 to analyze guideline adherence in eCOPD. In this analysis, admissions were split according to the presence or not of consolidation on the admission chest radiograph. Groups were compared in terms of clinical and epidemiological features, existing treatment, clinical care utilized and mortality. RESULTS 14,111 cases were included comprising 2,714 (19.2%) with consolidation and 11,397 (80.8%) without. The risk of radiographic consolidation increased with age, female gender, cardiovascular diseases, having had two or more admissions in the previous year, and sputum color change. Previous treatment with inhaled steroids was not associated. Patients with radiographic consolidation were significantly more likely to receive antibiotics, oxygen and non-invasive ventilation during the admission and had a lower survival from admission to 90-day follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Patients admitted for COPD exacerbation who have radiological consolidation have a more severe illness course, are treated more intensively by clinicians and have a poorer prognosis. We recommend that these patients be considered a distinct subset in COPD exacerbation.