Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Background Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. Methods Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. Results During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. Conclusions The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

Predictors of sickness absence in patients with a new episode of low back pain in primary care

This study examines predictors of sickness absence in patients presenting to a health practitioner with acute/ subacute low back pain (LBP). Aims of this study were to identify baseline-variables that detect patients with a new LBP episode at risk of sickness absence and to identify prognostic models for sickness absence at different time points after initial presentation. Prospective cohort study investigating 310 patients presenting to a health practitioner with a new episode of LBP at baseline, three-, six-, twelve-week and six-month follow-up, addressing work-related, psychological and biomedical factors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify baseline-predictors of sickness absence at different time points. Prognostic models comprised 'job control', 'depression' and 'functional limitation' as predictive baseline-factors of sickness absence at three and six-week follow-up with 'job control' being the best single predictor (OR 0.47; 95%CI 0.26-0.87). The six-week model explained 47% of variance of sickness absence at six-week follow-up (p<0.001). The prediction of sickness absence beyond six-weeks is limited, and health practitioners should re-assess patients at six weeks, especially if they have previously been identified as at risk of sickness absence. This would allow timely intervention with measures designed to reduce the likelihood of prolonged sickness absence.

Cause or effect of arteriogenesis: compositional alterations of microparticles from CAD patients undergoing external counterpulsation therapy

Recently, a clinical study on patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) showed that external counterpulsation therapy (ECP) at high (300 mmHg) but not at low inflation pressure (80 mmHg) promoted coronary collateral growth, most likely due to shear stress-induced arteriogenesis. The exact molecular mechanisms behind shear stress-induced arteriogenesis are still obscure. We therefore characterized plasma levels of circulating microparticles (MPs) from these CAD patients because of their ambivalent nature as a known cardiovascular risk factor and as a promoter of neovascularization in the case of platelet-derived MPs. MPs positive for Annexin V and CD31CD41 were increased, albeit statistically significant (P<0.05, vs. baseline) only in patients receiving high inflation pressure ECP as determined by flow cytometry. MPs positive for CD62E, CD146, and CD14 were unaffected. In high, but not in low, inflation pressure treatment, change of CD31CD41 was inversely correlated to the change in collateral flow index (CFI), a measure for collateral growth. MPs from the high inflation pressure group had a more sustained pro-angiogenic effect than the ones from the low inflation pressure group, with the exception of one patient showing also an increased CFI after treatment. A total of 1005 proteins were identified by a label-free proteomics approach from MPs of three patients of each group applying stringent acceptance criteria. Based on semi-quantitative protein abundance measurements, MPs after ECP therapy contained more cellular proteins and increased CD31, corroborating the increase in MPs. Furthermore, we show that MP-associated factors of the innate immune system were decreased, many membrane-associated signaling proteins, and the known arteriogenesis stimulating protein transforming growth factor beta-1 were increased after ECP therapy. In conclusion, our data show that ECP therapy increases platelet-derived MPs in patients with CAD and that the change in protein cargo of MPs is likely in favor of a pro angiogenic/arteriogenic property.

Effect of donor-specific transfusions on the outcome of renal allografts in the cyclosporine era

Despite the introduction of new immunosuppressive agents, a steady decline of functioning renal allografts after living donation is observed. Thus nonpharmacological strategies to prevent graft loss have to be reconsidered, including donor-specific transfusions (DST). We introduced a cyclosporine-based DST protocol for renal allograft recipients from living-related/unrelated donation. From 1993 to 2003, 200 ml of whole blood, or the respective mononuclear cells from the potential living donor were administered twice to all of our 61 recipient candidates. The transplanted subjects were compared with three groups of patients without DST from the Collaborative Transplant Study (Heidelberg, Germany) during a 6-year period. Six patients were sensitized without delay for a subsequent cadaveric kidney. DST patients had less often treatment for rejection and graft survival was superior compared with subjects from the other Swiss transplant centers (n = 513) or from Western Europe (n = 7024). To diminish the probability that superior results reflect patient selection rather than effects of DST, a 'matched-pair' analysis controlling for relevant factors of transplant outcome was performed. Again, this analysis indicated that recipients with DST had better outcome. Thus, our observation suggests that DST improve the outcome of living kidney transplants even when modern immunosuppressive drugs are prescribed.

Effects of potentised substances on growth kinetics of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe

BACKGROUND: Homeopathic potencies are used as specific remedies in complementary medicine. Since the mode of action is unknown, the presumed specificity is discussed controversially. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the effects of potentised substances on two yeast species, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Schizosaccharomyces pombe, in a stable and reliable test system with systematic negative controls. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Yeast cells were cultivated in either potentised substances or water controls in microplates and their growth kinetics were measured photometrically. Water control runs were performed repeatedly to investigate the stability of the experimental set-up (systematic negative controls). RESULTS: 4 out of 14 screened substances seem to have affected the growth curve parameters slope or yield. Out of these substances, azoxystrobin and phosphorus were chosen for 8 further replication experiments, which partly confirmed the results of the screening. On the average of all experiments, azoxystrobin affected the slope of the growth curve of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (p < 0.05), and phosphorus affected the slope of the growth curve of Schizosaccharomyces pombe (p < 0.05). No effects were seen in the water control runs. In addition, significant interactions between treatment with potentised substances and experiment number were observed in all experiments with potentised substances (p < 0.01), but not in the water control runs. CONCLUSIONS: Both yeast species reacted to certain potentised substances by changing their growth kinetics. However, the interactions found point to additional factors of still unknown nature, that modulate the effects of potentised substances. This stable test system with yeasts may be suitable for further studies regarding the efficacy of homeopathic potencies.

Prediction of first coronary events with the Framingham score: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty exists about the performance of the Framingham risk score when applied in different populations. OBJECTIVE: We assessed calibration of the Framingham risk score (ie, relationship between predicted and observed coronary event rates) in US and non-US populations free of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We reviewed studies that evaluated the performance of the Framingham risk score to predict first coronary events in a validation cohort, as identified by Medline, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library searches (through August 2005). Two reviewers independently assessed 1496 studies for eligibility, extracted data, and performed quality assessment using predefined forms. RESULTS: We included 25 validation cohorts of different population groups (n = 128,000) in our main analysis. Calibration varied over a wide range from under- to overprediction of absolute risk by factors of 0.57 to 2.7. Risk prediction for 7 cohorts (n = 18658) from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand was well calibrated (corresponding figures: 0.87-1.08; for the 5 biggest cohorts). The estimated population risks for first coronary events were strongly associated (goodness of fit: R2 = 0.84) and in good agreement with observed risks (coefficient for predicted risk: beta = 0.84; 95% CI 0.41-1.26). In 18 European cohorts (n = 109499), the corresponding figures indicated close association (R2 = 0.72) but substantial overprediction (beta = 0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.77). The risk score was well calibrated on the intercept for both population clusters. CONCLUSION: The Framingham score is well calibrated to predict first coronary events in populations from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Overestimation of absolute risk in European cohorts requires recalibration procedures.

Predictors of early relapse in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the BIG 1-98 trial

BACKGROUND: Aromatase inhibitors are considered standard adjuvant endocrine treatment of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, but it remains uncertain whether aromatase inhibitors should be given upfront or sequentially with tamoxifen. Awaiting results from ongoing randomized trials, we examined prognostic factors of an early relapse among patients in the BIG 1-98 trial to aid in treatment choices. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analyses included all 7707 eligible patients treated on BIG 1-98. The median follow-up was 2 years, and the primary end point was breast cancer relapse. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify prognostic factors. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-five patients (3.7%) had an early relapse (3.1% on letrozole, 4.4% on tamoxifen). Predictive factors for early relapse were node positivity (P < 0.001), absence of both receptors being positive (P < 0.001), high tumor grade (P < 0.001), HER-2 overexpression/amplification (P < 0.001), large tumor size (P = 0.001), treatment with tamoxifen (P = 0.002), and vascular invasion (P = 0.02). There were no significant interactions between treatment and the covariates, though letrozole appeared to provide a greater than average reduction in the risk of early relapse in patients with many involved lymph nodes, large tumors, and vascular invasion present. CONCLUSION: Upfront letrozole resulted in significantly fewer early relapses than tamoxifen, even after adjusting for significant prognostic factors.

Primary care physician supply and other key determinants of health care utilisation: The case of Switzerland

Background The Swiss government decided to freeze new accreditations for physicians in private practice in Switzerland based on the assumption that demand-induced health care spending may be cut by limiting care offers. This legislation initiated an ongoing controversial public debate in Switzerland. The aim of this study is therefore the determination of socio-demographic and health system-related factors of per capita consultation rates with primary care physicians in the multicultural population of Switzerland. Methods The data were derived from the complete claims data of Swiss health insurers for 2004 and included 21.4 million consultations provided by 6564 Swiss primary care physicians on a fee-for-service basis. Socio-demographic data were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Utilisation-based health service areas were created and were used as observational units for statistical procedures. Multivariate and hierarchical models were applied to analyze the data. Results Models within the study allowed the definition of 1018 primary care service areas with a median population of 3754 and an average per capita consultation rate of 2.95 per year. Statistical models yielded significant effects for various geographical, socio-demographic and cultural factors. The regional density of physicians in independent practice was also significantly associated with annual consultation rates and indicated an associated increase 0.10 for each additional primary care physician in a population of 10,000 inhabitants. Considerable differences across Swiss language regions were observed with reference to the supply of ambulatory health resources provided either by primary care physicians, specialists, or hospital-based ambulatory care. Conclusion The study documents a large small-area variation in utilisation and provision of health care resources in Switzerland. Effects of physician density appeared to be strongly related to Swiss language regions and may be rooted in the different cultural backgrounds of the served populations.

Hospital use of young children in Switzerland: a nation-wide study based on a complete survey over 4 years

Background Young children are known to be the most frequent hospital users compared to older children and young adults. Therefore, they are an important population from economic and policy perspectives of health care delivery. In Switzerland complete hospitalization discharge records for children [<5 years] of four consecutive years [2002–2005] were evaluated in order to analyze variation in patterns of hospital use. Methods Stationary and outpatient hospitalization rates on aggregated ZIP code level were calculated based on census data provided by the Swiss federal statistical office (BfS). Thirty-seven hospital service areas for children [HSAP] were created with the method of "small area analysis", reflecting user-based health markets. Descriptive statistics and general linear models were applied to analyze the data. Results The mean stationary hospitalization rate over four years was 66.1 discharges per 1000 children. Hospitalizations for respiratory problem are most dominant in young children (25.9%) and highest hospitalization rates are associated with geographical factors of urban areas and specific language regions. Statistical models yielded significant effect estimates for these factors and a significant association between ambulatory/outpatient and stationary hospitalization rates. Conclusion The utilization-based approach, using HSAP as spatial representation of user-based health markets, is a valid instrument and allows assessing the supply and demand of children's health care services. The study provides for the first time estimates for several factors associated with the large variation in the utilization and provision of paediatric health care resources in Switzerland.

Chronic rejection in lung allografts: immunohistological analysis of fibrogenesis

In ongoing chronic rejection after lung transplantation, alveolar interstitial fibrosis develops. However, little is known about the mechanisms involved. In order to investigate these mechanisms, expression of extracellular matrix molecules (ECM) (undulin, decorin, tenascin, laminin, and fibronectin) and cytokines [transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta 1, TGF-beta 3, platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), and PDGF receptor] were semiquantitatively evaluated in chronically rejected lung allografts, using standard immunohistochemical techniques. Additionally, the presence of macrophages was analysed. The present study demonstrates an increased infiltration of macrophages with a concomitant upregulation of cytokines (TGF-beta 1, TGF-beta 3, and PDGF) and an increased deposition of ECM in chronic lung rejection. These cytokines have an important role in the stimulation of fibroblasts which are a major source of ECM. Upregulated expression of ECM in the alveolar interstitial space leads to alveolar malfunction by thickening of the wall and, thus, is one of the causative factors of respiratory dysfunction in chronic lung graft rejection.

Prognosis of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: We examined survival and prognostic factors of patients who developed HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN AND SETTING: Multicohort collaboration of 33 European cohorts. METHODS: We included all cART-naive patients enrolled in cohorts participating in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) who were aged 16 years or older, started cART at some point after 1 January 1998 and developed NHL after 1 January 1998. Patients had to have a CD4 cell count after 1 January 1998 and one at diagnosis of the NHL. Survival and prognostic factors were estimated using Weibull models, with random effects accounting for heterogeneity between cohorts. RESULTS: Of 67 659 patients who were followed up during 304 940 person-years, 1176 patients were diagnosed with NHL. Eight hundred and forty-seven patients (72%) from 22 cohorts met inclusion criteria. Survival at 1 year was 66% [95% confidence interval (CI) 63-70%] for systemic NHL (n = 763) and 54% (95% CI: 43-65%) for primary brain lymphoma (n = 84). Risk factors for death included low nadir CD4 cell counts and a history of injection drug use. Patients developing NHL on cART had an increased risk of death compared with patients who were cART naive at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: In the era of cART two-thirds of patients diagnosed with HIV-related systemic NHL survive for longer than 1 year after diagnosis. Survival is poorer in patients diagnosed with primary brain lymphoma. More advanced immunodeficiency is the dominant prognostic factor for mortality in patients with HIV-related NHL.

Factors related to treatment intensity in Swiss primary care

BACKGROUND: Questions about the existence of supplier-induced demand emerge repeatedly in discussions about governing Swiss health care. This study therefore aimed to evaluate the interrelationship between structural factors of supply and the volume of services that are provided by primary care physicians in Switzerland. METHODS: The study was designed as a cross-sectional investigation, based on the complete claims data from all Swiss health care insurers for the year 2004, which covered information from 6087 primary care physicians and 4.7 million patients. Utilization-based health service areas were constructed and used as spatial units to analyze effects of density of supply. Hierarchical linear models were applied to analyze the data. RESULTS: The data showed that, within a service area, a higher density of primary care physicians was associated with higher mortality rates and specialist density but not with treatment intensity in primary care. Higher specialist density was weakly associated with higher mortality rates and with higher treatment intensity density of primary care physicians. Annual physician-level data indicate a disproportionate increase of supplied services irrespective of the size of the number of patients treated during the same year and, even in high volume practices, no rationing but a paradoxical inducement of consultations occurred. The results provide empirical evidence that higher densities of primary care physicians, specialists and the availability of out-patient hospital clinics in a given area are associated with higher volume of supplied services per patient in primary care practices. Analyses stratified by language regions showed differences that emphasize the effect of the cantonal based (fragmented) governance of Swiss health care. CONCLUSION: The study shows high volumes in Swiss primary care and provides evidence that the volume of supply is not driven by medical needs alone. Effects related to the competition for patients between primary care physicians, specialists and out-patient hospital clinics and an association with the system of reimbursing services on a fee-for-service basis can not be excluded.

Association of vital exhaustion and depressive symptoms with changes in fibrin D-dimer to acute psychosocial stress

OBJECTIVE: Vital exhaustion and depression are psychosocial risk factors of coronary artery disease. A hypercoagulable state in response to acute psychosocial stress contributes to atherothrombotic events. We aimed to investigate the hypothesis that vital exhaustion and depression correlate with stress-induced changes in the hypercoagulability marker D-dimer. METHODS: Thirty-eight healthy and nonsmoking school teachers (mean age 50+/-8 years, 55% women) completed the nine-item Maastricht Vital Exhaustion Questionnaire and the seven-item depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Within 1 week, subjects twice underwent the Trier Social Stress Test (i.e., preparation phase, mock job interview, and mental arithmetic that totaled 13 min). Plasma D-dimer levels were determined at five time points during the protocol. RESULTS: Vital exhaustion (P=.022; eta(2)=.080) and depressive symptoms (P=.011; eta(2)=.090) were associated with stress-induced changes in D-dimer levels over time controlling for sex and age. Elevated levels of vital exhaustion (r=-.46, P=.005) and of depression (r=-.51, P=.002) correlated with reduced D-dimer increase from pre-stress to immediately post-stress. Also, elevated vital exhaustion (r=.34, P=.044) and depression (r=.41, P=.013) were associated with increase (i.e., attenuated recovery) of D-dimer levels between 20 and 45 min post-stress. Controlling for stress hormone and blood pressure reactivity did not substantially alter these results. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest an attenuated immediate D-dimer stress response and delayed recovery of D-dimer levels post-stress with elevated vital exhaustion and depressive symptoms. In particular, the prolonged hypercoagulability after stress cessation might contribute to the atherothrombotic risk previously observed with vital exhaustion and depression, even at subclinical levels.

Early- and delayed antipsychotic response and prediction of outcome in 528 severely impaired patients with schizophrenia treated with amisulpride

'Early-onset' studies have shown that symptomatic response often occurs early and that early symptomatic response is predictive for later outcome. Limiting factors of these studies include the restriction on symptomatic outcome, the inclusion of mostly moderately ill patients, and the use of various antipsychotics.

Impact of family control/influence on stakeholders' perceptions of benevolence

This article proposes a model explaining how family control/influence in an organization affects individual stakeholders’ perceptions of benevolence. The model suggests two effects. First, based on socioemotional wealth research, we propose that family control/influence positively affects stakeholders’ perceptions of benevolence through the benevolent behavior that the organization shows toward its stakeholders. However, this effect can be negatively influenced if the family’s socioemotional wealth goals in terms of “Family control and influence” and/or “Renewal of family bonds to the firm through dynastic succession” are at risk. Second, we argue that family control/influence, to the extent that it is perceivable to the stakeholder, influences stakeholders’ perceptions of benevolence through categorization processes. However, the impact of perceivable family control/influence on stakeholders’ perceptions of benevolence is not straightforward but instead hinges on a set of individual-level contingency factors of the stakeholder, such as stakeholders’ family business in-group membership, stakeholders’ secondhand category information, and stakeholders’ firsthand category information.