79 resultados para errors-in-variables model
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BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.
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INTRODUCTION: Intracisternal blood injection is the most common applied experimental subarachnoid bleeding technique in rabbits. The model comprises examiner-dependent variables and does not closely represent the human pathophysiological sequelae of ruptured cerebral aneurysm. The degree of achieved delayed cerebral vasospasm (DCVS) in this model is often mild. The aim of this study was to characterize and evaluate the feasibility of a clinically more relevant experimental SAH in vivo model. SAH was performed by arterial blood shunting from the subclavian artery into the great cerebral cistern. A total of five experiments were performed. Intracranial pressure (ICP), arterial blood pressure, heart rate, arterial blood gas analysis, and neurological status were monitored throughout the experiments. SAH induced vasoconstriction of the basilar artery was 52.1±3.4% on day 3 compared to baseline (P<0.05). Post-mortem gross examination of the brain showed massive blood clot accumulation around the brainstem and ventral surface of the brain. The novel technique offers an examiner independent SAH induction and triggers high degrees of delayed cerebral vasospasm. The severity of vasospasm attained offers a unique opportunity to evaluate future therapeutic treatment options.
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Generalised epileptic seizures are frequently accompanied by sudden, reversible transitions from low amplitude, irregular background activity to high amplitude, regular spike-wave discharges (SWD) in the EEG. The underlying mechanisms responsible for SWD generation and for the apparently spontaneous transitions to SWD and back again are still not fully understood. Specifically, the role of spatial cortico-cortical interactions in ictogenesis is not well studied. We present a macroscopic, neural mass model of a cortical column which includes two distinct time scales of inhibition. This model can produce both an oscillatory background and a pathological SWD rhythm. We demonstrate that coupling two of these cortical columns can lead to a bistability between out-of-phase, low amplitude background dynamics and in-phase, high amplitude SWD activity. Stimuli can cause state-dependent transitions from background into SWD. In an extended local area of cortex, spatial heterogeneities in a model parameter can lead to spontaneous reversible transitions from a desynchronised background to synchronous SWD due to intermittency. The deterministic model is therefore capable of producing absence seizure-like events without any time dependent adjustment of model parameters. The emergence of such mechanisms due to spatial coupling demonstrates the importance of spatial interactions in modelling ictal dynamics, and in the study of ictogenesis.
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This paper aims at the development and evaluation of a personalized insulin infusion advisory system (IIAS), able to provide real-time estimations of the appropriate insulin infusion rate for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients using continuous glucose monitors and insulin pumps. The system is based on a nonlinear model-predictive controller (NMPC) that uses a personalized glucose-insulin metabolism model, consisting of two compartmental models and a recurrent neural network. The model takes as input patient's information regarding meal intake, glucose measurements, and insulin infusion rates, and provides glucose predictions. The predictions are fed to the NMPC, in order for the latter to estimate the optimum insulin infusion rates. An algorithm based on fuzzy logic has been developed for the on-line adaptation of the NMPC control parameters. The IIAS has been in silico evaluated using an appropriate simulation environment (UVa T1DM simulator). The IIAS was able to handle various meal profiles, fasting conditions, interpatient variability, intraday variation in physiological parameters, and errors in meal amount estimations.
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Despite numerous studies about nitrogen-cycling in forest ecosystems, many uncertainties remain, especially regarding the longer-term nitrogen accumulation. To contribute to filling this gap, the dynamic process-based model TRACE, with the ability to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in forest ecosystems was used to study N cycling processes in a mountain spruce forest of the northern edge of the Alps in Switzerland (Alptal, SZ). Most modeling analyses of N-cycling and C-N interactions have very limited ability to determine whether the process interactions are captured correctly. Because the interactions in such a system are complex, it is possible to get the whole-system C and N cycling right in a model without really knowing if the way the model combines fine-scale interactions to derive whole-system cycling is correct. With the possibility to simulate 15N tracer redistribution in ecosystem compartments, TRACE features a very powerful tool for the validation of fine-scale processes captured by the model. We first adapted the model to the new site (Alptal, Switzerland; long-term low-dose N-amendment experiment) by including a new algorithm for preferential water flow and by parameterizing of differences in drivers such as climate, N deposition and initial site conditions. After the calibration of key rates such as NPP and SOM turnover, we simulated patterns of 15N redistribution to compare against 15N field observations from a large-scale labeling experiment. The comparison of 15N field data with the modeled redistribution of the tracer in the soil horizons and vegetation compartments shows that the majority of fine-scale processes are captured satisfactorily. Particularly, the model is able to reproduce the fact that the largest part of the N deposition is immobilized in the soil. The discrepancies of 15N recovery in the LF and M soil horizon can be explained by the application method of the tracer and by the retention of the applied tracer by the well developed moss layer, which is not considered in the model. Discrepancies in the dynamics of foliage and litterfall 15N recovery were also observed and are related to the longevity of the needles in our mountain forest. As a next step, we will use the final Alptal version of the model to calculate the effects of climate change (temperature, CO2) and N deposition on ecosystem C sequestration in this regionally representative Norway spruce (Picea abies) stand.
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Abstract Background: Aerosol therapy in preterm infants is challenging, as a very small proportion of the drug deposits in the lungs. Aim: Our aim was to compare efficiency of standard devices with newer, more efficient aerosol delivery devices. Methods: Using salbutamol as a drug marker, we studied two prototypes of the investigational eFlow(®) nebulizer for babies (PARI Pharma GmbH), a jet nebulizer (Intersurgical(®) Cirrus(®)), and a pressurized metered dose inhaler (pMDI; GSK) with a detergent-coated holding chamber (AeroChamber(®) MV) in the premature infant nose throat-model (PrINT-model) of a 32-week preterm infant (1,750 g). A filter or an impactor was placed below the infant model's "trachea" to capture the drug dose or particle size, respectively, that would have been deposited in the lung. Results: Lung dose (percentage of nominal dose) was 1.5%, 6.8%, and 18.0-20.6% for the jet nebulizer, pMDI-holding chamber, and investigational eFlow nebulizers, respectively (p<0.001). Jet nebulizer residue was 69.4% and 10.7-13.9% for the investigational eFlow nebulizers (p<0.001). Adding an elbow extension between the eFlow and the model significantly lowered lung dose (p<0.001). A breathing pattern with lower tidal volume decreased deposition in the PrINT-model and device residue (p<0.05), but did not decrease lung dose. Conclusions: In a model for infant aerosol inhalation, we confirmed low lung dose using jet nebulizers and pMDI-holding chambers, whereas newer, more specialized vibrating membrane devices, designed specifically for use in preterm infants, deliver up to 20 times more drug to the infant's lung.
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BACKGROUND: Little is known about the ocular penetration of echinocandin antifungals. We studied the ocular distribution of systemically administered caspofungin in a rabbit uveitis model. METHODS: Caspofungin (1 mg/kg per day) was given intravenously to rabbits as a single dose or as repeated daily doses on 7 days starting 24 h after induction of unilateral uveitis by intravitreal endotoxin injection. Caspofungin concentrations were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography in the cornea, aqueous humor, vitreous humor, and serum 4, 8, 16, and 24 h after administration of a single dose and 24 h after the last of seven doses. RESULTS: The mean caspofungin concentration in the aqueous of the inflamed eye 4 and 8 h after single-dose administration was 1.30 +/- 0.39 mug/ml and 1.12 +/- 0.34 mug/ml, respectively. Drug concentrations decreased to 0.24 +/- 0.09 mug/ml at 16 h and 0.26 +/- 0.14 mug/ml at 24 h. In the vitreous of inflamed eyes drug levels were undetectable at all time points. No drug was found in the aqueous of inflamed eyes 24 h after the last of seven repeated doses, and the vitreous only contained trace amounts. In the corneas of inflamed eyes concentrations reached 1.64 +/- 0.48 mug/g at 4 h, peaked at 2.16 +/- 1.14 mug/g at 8 h, and declined to 1.87 +/- 0.52 mug/g and 1.49 +/- 0.48 mug/g at 16 and 24 h, respectively. After repeated dosing, corneal concentrations of caspofungin were 0.8 and 1.0 mug/g and below the limit of detection in two of four animals. In non-inflamed eyes no drug was detectable in the aqueous and vitreous humor, and the corneas at any time point. CONCLUSIONS: In our model, caspofungin reached therapeutically relevant levels in the aqueous and cornea but not in the vitreous humor of inflamed eyes. Intraocular drug deposition was critically dependent on a disrupted blood-eye barrier. These findings suggest a limited role for caspofungin in the treatment of fungal endophthalmitis.
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BACKGROUND: Recent studies have focused on mechanical thrombectomy as a means to reduce the time required for revascularization and increase the revascularization rate in acute stroke. To date no systematic evaluation has been made of the different mechanical devices in this novel and fast-developing field of endovascular interventions. To facilitate such evaluations, we developed a specific in vivo model for mechanical thrombectomy that allows visualization of dislocation or fragmentation of the thrombus during angiographic manipulation. METHODS: Angiography and embolization with a preformed thrombus was performed in 8 swine. The thrombus was generated by mixing 25 IU bovine thrombin and 10 mL autologous blood. For visualization during angiography, 1 g barium sulfate was added. RESULTS: The preformed thrombus exhibited mechanical stability, reproducibility, and high radiographic absorption, providing excellent visibility during angiography. The setting allowed selective embolization of targeted vessels without thrombus fragmentation. Despite the application of barium sulfate no local or systemic reaction occurred. Histologic evaluation revealed no intimal damage caused by the thrombus or contrast agent washout. CONCLUSION: The model presented here allows selective and reliable thromboembolization of vessels that reproduce the anatomic and hemodynamic situation in acute cerebrovascular stroke. It permits visualization of the thrombus during angiography and intervention, providing unique insight into the behavior of both thrombus and device, which is potentially useful in the development and evaluation of mechanical clot retrieval in acute cerebrovascular stroke.
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STUDY DESIGN: Ex vivo in vitro study evaluating a novel intervertebral disc/endplate culture system. OBJECTIVES: To establish a whole-organ intervertebral disc culture model for the study of disc degeneration in vitro, including the characterization of basic cell and organ function. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: With current in vivo models for the study of disc and endplate degeneration, it remains difficult to investigate the complex disc metabolism and signaling cascades. In contrast, more controlled but simplified in vitro systems using isolated cells or disc fragments are difficult to culture due to the unconstrained conditions, with often-observed cell death or cell dedifferentiation. Therefore, there is a demand for a controlled culture model with preserved cell function that offers the possibility to investigate disc and endplate pathologies in a structurally intact organ. METHODS: Naturally constrained intervertebral disc/endplate units from rabbits were cultured in multi-well plates. Cell viability, metabolic activity, matrix composition, and matrix gene expression profile were monitored using the Live/Dead cell viability test (Invitrogen, Basel, Switzerland), tetrazolium salt reduction (WST-8), proteoglycan and deoxyribonucleic acid quantification assays, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Viability and organ integrity were preserved for at least 4 weeks, while proteoglycan and deoxyribonucleic acid content decreased slightly, and matrix genes exhibited a degenerative profile with up-regulation of type I collagen and suppression of collagen type II and aggrecan genes. Additionally, cell metabolic activity was reduced to one third of the initial value. CONCLUSIONS: Naturally constrained intervertebral rabbit discs could be cultured for several weeks without losing cell viability. Structural integrity and matrix composition were retained. However, the organ responded to the artificial environment with a degenerative gene expression pattern and decreased metabolic rate. Therefore, the described system serves as a promising in vitro model to study disc degeneration in a whole organ.
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BACKGROUND: Bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) is a potent differentiating agent for cells of the osteoblastic lineage. It has been used in the oral cavity under a variety of indications and with different carriers. However, the optimal carrier for each indication is not known. This study examined a synthetic bioabsorbable carrier for BMP used in osseous defects around dental implants in the canine mandible. METHODS: Twelve canines had their mandibular four premolars and first molar teeth extracted bilaterally. After 5 months, four implants were placed with standardized circumferential defects around the coronal 4 mm of each implant. One-half of the defects received a polylactide/glycolide (PLGA) polymer carrier with or without recombinant human BMP-2 (rhBMP-2), and the other half received a collagen carrier with or without rhBMP-2. Additionally, one-half of the implants were covered with a non-resorbable (expanded polytetrafluoroethylene [ePTFE]) membrane to exclude soft tissues. Animals were sacrificed either 4 or 12 weeks later. Histomorphometric analysis included the percentage of new bone contact with the implant, the area of new bone, and the percentage of defect fill. This article describes results with the PLGA carrier. RESULTS: All implants demonstrated clinical and radiographic success with the amount of new bone formed dependent on the time and presence/absence of rhBMP-2 and presence/absence of a membrane. The percentage of bone-to-implant contact was greater with rhBMP-2, and after 12 weeks of healing, there was approximately one-third of the implant contacting bone in the defect site. After 4 weeks, the presence of a membrane appeared to slow new bone area formation. The percentage of fill in membrane-treated sites with rhBMP-2 rose from 24% fill to 42% after 4 and 12 weeks, respectively. Without rhBMP-2, the percentage of fill was 14% rising to 36% fill, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: After 4 weeks, the rhBMP-2-treated sites had a significantly higher percentage of contact, more new bone area, and higher percentage of defect fill than the sites without rhBMP-2. After 12 weeks, there was no significant difference in sites with or without rhBMP-2 regarding percentage of contact, new bone area, or percentage of defect fill. In regard to these three outcomes, comparing the results with this carrier to the results reported earlier with a collagen carrier in this study, only the area of new bone was significantly different with the collagen carrier resulting in greater bone than the PLGA carrier. Thus, the PLGA carrier for rhBMP-2 significantly stimulated bone formation around dental implants in this model after 1 month but not after 3 months of healing. The use of this growth factor and carrier combination appears to stimulate early bone healing events around the implants but not quite to the same degree as a collagen carrier.
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Early prenatal diagnosis and in utero therapy of certain fetal diseases have the potential to reduce fetal morbidity and mortality. The intrauterine transplantation of stem cells provides in some instances a therapeutic option before definitive organ failure occurs. Clinical experiences show that certain diseases, such as immune deficiencies or inborn errors of metabolism, can be successfully treated using stem cells derived from bone marrow. However, a remaining problem is the low level of engraftment that can be achieved. Efforts are made in animal models to optimise the graft and study the recipient's microenvironment to increase long-term engraftment levels. Our experiments in mice show similar early homing of allogeneic and xenogeneic stem cells and reasonable early engraftment of allogeneic murine fetal liver cells (17.1% donor cells in peripheral blood 4 weeks after transplantation), whereas xenogeneic HSC are rapidly diminished due to missing self-renewal and low differentiation capacities in the host's microenvironment. Allogeneic murine fetal liver cells have very good long-term engraftment (49.9% donor cells in peripheral blood 16 weeks after transplantation). Compared to the rodents, the sheep model has the advantage of body size and gestation comparable to the human fetus. Here, ultrasound-guided injection techniques significantly decreased fetal loss rates. In contrast to the murine in utero model, the repopulation capacities of allogeneic ovine fetal liver cells are lower (0.112% donor cells in peripheral blood 3 weeks after transplantation). The effect of MHC on engraftment levels seems to be marginal, since no differences could be observed between autologous and allogeneic transplantation (0.117% donor cells vs 0.112% donor cells in peripheral blood 1 to 2 weeks after transplantation). Further research is needed to study optimal timing and graft composition as well as immunological aspects of in utero transplantation.
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BACKGROUND: Assessment of lung volume (FRC) and ventilation inhomogeneities with ultrasonic flowmeter and multiple breath washout (MBW) has been used to provide important information about lung disease in infants. Sub-optimal adjustment of the mainstream molar mass (MM) signal for temperature and external deadspace may lead to analysis errors in infants with critically small tidal volume changes during breathing. METHODS: We measured expiratory temperature in human infants at 5 weeks of age and examined the influence of temperature and deadspace changes on FRC results with computer simulation modeling. A new analysis method with optimized temperature and deadspace settings was then derived, tested for robustness to analysis errors and compared with the previously used analysis methods. RESULTS: Temperature in the facemask was higher and variations of deadspace volumes larger than previously assumed. Both showed considerable impact upon FRC and LCI results with high variability when obtained with the previously used analysis model. Using the measured temperature we optimized model parameters and tested a newly derived analysis method, which was found to be more robust to variations in deadspace. Comparison between both analysis methods showed systematic differences and a wide scatter. CONCLUSION: Corrected deadspace and more realistic temperature assumptions improved the stability of the analysis of MM measurements obtained by ultrasonic flowmeter in infants. This new analysis method using the only currently available commercial ultrasonic flowmeter in infants may help to improve stability of the analysis and further facilitate assessment of lung volume and ventilation inhomogeneities in infants.
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Heart rate variability (HRV) exhibits fluctuations characterized by a power law behavior of its power spectrum. The interpretation of this nonlinear HRV behavior, resulting from interactions between extracardiac regulatory mechanisms, could be clinically useful. However, the involvement of intrinsic variations of pacemaker rate in HRV has scarcely been investigated. We examined beating variability in spontaneously active incubating cultures of neonatal rat ventricular myocytes using microelectrode arrays. In networks of mathematical model pacemaker cells, we evaluated the variability induced by the stochastic gating of transmembrane currents and of calcium release channels and by the dynamic turnover of ion channels. In the cultures, spontaneous activity originated from a mobile focus. Both the beat-to-beat movement of the focus and beat rate variability exhibited a power law behavior. In the model networks, stochastic fluctuations in transmembrane currents and stochastic gating of calcium release channels did not reproduce the spatiotemporal patterns observed in vitro. In contrast, long-term correlations produced by the turnover of ion channels induced variability patterns with a power law behavior similar to those observed experimentally. Therefore, phenomena leading to long-term correlated variations in pacemaker cellular function may, in conjunction with extracardiac regulatory mechanisms, contribute to the nonlinear characteristics of HRV.
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The antibacterial activities of amoxicillin-gentamicin, trovafloxacin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) and the combination of trovafloxacin with TMP-SMX were compared in a model of meningoencephalitis due to Listeria monocytogenes in infant rats. At 22 h after intracisternal infection, the cerebrospinal fluid was cultured to document meningitis, and the treatment was started. Treatment was instituted for 48 h, and efficacy was evaluated 24 h after administration of the last dose. All tested treatment regimens exhibited significant activities in brain, liver, and blood compared to infected rats receiving saline (P < 0.001). In the brain, amoxicillin plus gentamicin was more active than all of the other regimens, and trovafloxacin was more active than TMP-SMX (bacterial titers of 4.1 +/- 0.5 log10 CFU/ml for amoxicillin-gentamicin, 5.0 +/- 0.4 log10 CFU/ml for trovafloxacin, and 5.8 +/- 0.5 log10 CFU/ml for TMP-SMX; P < 0.05). In liver, amoxicillin-gentamicin and trovafloxacin were similarly active (2.8 +/- 0.8 and 2.7 +/- 0.8 log10 CFU/ml, respectively) but more active than TMP-SMX (4.4 +/- 0. 6 log10 CFU/ml; P < 0.05). The combination of trovafloxacin with TMP-SMX did not alter the antibacterial effect in the brain, but it did reduce the effect of trovafloxacin in the liver. Amoxicillin-gentamicin was the most active therapy in this study, but the activity of trovafloxacin suggests that further studies with this drug for the treatment of Listeria infections may be warranted.