Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Education and employment pathways from the end of compulsory school to young adulthood: the first ten years

Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit den Ausbildungs- und Erwerbsverläufen vom Ende der obligatorischen Schulzeit bis ins junge Erwachsenenalter. Als empirische Datengrundlage dient die Längsschnittstudie TREE („Transitionen von der Erstausbildung ins Erwerbsleben“). Die Auswertungen beruhen auf den Daten der ersten acht Befragungswellen von 2001 bis 2010.

Days spent in acute care hospitals at the end of life of cancer patients in four Swiss cantons: a retrospective database study (SAKK 89/09).

Number of days spent in acute hospitals (DAH) at the end of life is regarded as an important care quality indicator for cancer patients. We analysed DAH during 90 days prior to death in patients from four Swiss cantons. Claims data from an insurance provider with about 20% market share and patient record review identified 2086 patients as dying of cancer. We calculated total DAH per patient. Multivariable generalised linear modelling served to evaluate potential explanatory variables. Mean DAH was 26 days. In the multivariable model, using complementary and alternative medicine (DAH = 33.9; +8.8 days compared to non-users) and canton of residence (for patient receiving anti-cancer therapy, Zürich DAH = 22.8 versus Basel DAH = 31.4; for other patients, Valais DAH = 22.7 versus Ticino DAH = 33.7) had the strongest influence. Age at death and days spent in other institutions were additional significant predictors. DAH during the last 90 days of life of cancer patients from four Swiss cantons is high compared to most other countries. Several factors influence DAH. Resulting differences are likely to have financial impact, as DAH is a major cost driver for end-of-life care. Whether they are supply- or demand-driven and whether patients would prefer fewer days in hospital remains to be established.