Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach

One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall–runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

Contrasting vulnerability and resilience to drought-induced decline of densely planted vs. natural rear-edge Pinus nigra forests

The southernmost European natural and planted pine forests are among the most vulnerable areas to warming-induced drought decline. Both drought stress and management factors (e.g., stand origin or reduced thinning) may induce decline by reducing the water available to trees but their relative importances have not been properly assessed. The role of stand origin - densely planted vs. naturally regenerated stands - as a decline driver can be assessed by comparing the growth and vigor responses to drought of similar natural vs. planted stands. Here, we compare these responses in natural and planted Black pine (Pinus nigra) stands located in southern Spain. We analyze how environmental factors - climatic (temperature and precipitation anomalies) and site conditions - and biotic factors - stand structure (age, tree size, density) and defoliation by the pine processionary moth - drive radial growth and crown condition at stand and tree levels. We also assess the climatic trends in the study area over the last 60 years. We use dendrochronology, linear mixed-effects models of basal area increment and structural equation models to determine how natural and planted stands respond to drought and current competition intensity. We observed that a temperature rise and a decrease in precipitation during the growing period led to increasing drought stress during the late 20th century. Trees from planted stands experienced stronger growth reductions and displayed more severe crown defoliation after severe droughts than those from natural stands. High stand density negatively drove growth and enhanced crown dieback, particularly in planted stands. Also pine processionary moth defoliation was more severe in the growth of natural than in planted stands but affected tree crown condition similarly in both stand types. In response to drought, sharp growth reduction and widespread defoliation of planted Mediterranean pine stands indicate that they are more vulnerable and less resilient to drought stress than natural stands. To mitigate forest decline of planted stands in xeric areas such as the Mediterranean Basin, less dense and more diverse stands should be created through selective thinning or by selecting species or provenances that are more drought tolerant. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The water vapour flux above Switzerland and its role in the August 2005 extreme precipitation and flooding

The water budget approach is applied to an atmospheric box above Switzerland (hereafter referred to as the “Swiss box”) to quantify the atmospheric water vapour flux using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. The results confirm that the water vapour flux through the Swiss box is highly temporally variable, ranging from 1 to 5 · 107 kg/s during settled anticyclonic weather, but increasing in size by a factor of ten or more during high speed currents of water vapour. Overall, Switzerland and the Swiss box “import” more water vapour than it “exports”, but the amount gained remains only a small fraction (1% to 5%) of the total available water vapour passing by. High inward water vapour fluxes are not necessarily linked to high precipitation episodes. The water vapour flux during the August 2005 floods, which caused severe damage in central Switzerland, is examined and an assessment is made of the computed water vapour fluxes compared to high spatio-temporal rain gauge and radar observations. About 25% of the incoming water vapour flux was stored in Switzerland. The computed water vapour fluxes from ECMWF data compare well with the mean rain gauge observations and the combined rain-gauge radar precipitation products.

Impacts of drought stress on water relations and carbon assimilation in grassland species at different altitudes

Grassland is an important ecosystem type which is not only used agriculturally, but also covers sites which cannot be used for other purposes, e.g. in very steep locations or above timberlines. Prolonged summer droughts in the mid-term future, as are predicted for Central Europe, are expected to have a major impact on such ecosystems. To address this topic, rainfall exclusion via shelters was performed on three grassland sites at different altitudes (393, 982 and 1978 m above sea level) in Switzerland. Diurnal drought treatment effects were studied at each study site on a completely sunny day towards the end of an 8–10 week shelter period. Ecophysiological parameters including gas exchange (An, gs and intrinsic WUE) and chlorophyll a fluorescence (Fv/Fm, ΦPSII and NPQ) were considered for several species. The lowland and the Alpine field site were more strongly affected by soil drought than the pre-Alpine site. At all sites, grasses showed different patterns of reductions in stomatal conductance under soil drought compared to legumes and forbs. In addition, grasses were significantly more affected by reductions in assimilation rates at all sites. Time courses of reductions in assimilation rates relative to controls differed between species at the Alpine site, as some species showed reduced assimilation rates at this site in the early morning. Thus, similar rainfall exclusion treatments can trigger different reactions in various species at different sites, which might not become obvious during mere midday measurements. Overall, results suggest strong impacts of prolonged summer drought on grassland net photosynthesis especially at the Alpine site and, within sites, for grasses

Drought avoidance and the effect of local topography on trees in the understorey of Bornean lowland rain forest

The water relations of two tree species in the Euphorbiaceae were compared to test in part a hypothesis that the forest understorey plays an integral role in drought response. At Danum, Sabah, the relatively common species Dimorphocalyx muricatus is associated with ridges whilst another species, Mallotus wrayi, occurs widely both on ridges and lower slopes. Sets of subplots within two 4 -ha permanent plots in this lowland dipterocarp rain forest, were positioned on ridges and lower slopes. Soil water potentials were recorded in 1995-1997, and leaf water potentials were measured on six occasions. Soil water potentials on the ridges (-0.047 MPa) were significantly lower than on the lower slopes (-0.012 MPa), but during the driest period in May 1997 they fell to similarly low levels on both sites (-0.53 MPa). A weighted 40-day accumulated rainfall index was developed to model the soil water potentials. At dry times, D. muricatus (ridge) had significantly higher pre-dawn (-0.21 v. -0.57 MPa) and mid-day (-0.59 v. -1.77 MPa) leaf water potentials than M. wrayi (mean of ridge and lower slope). Leaf osmotic potentials of M. wrayi on the ridges were lower (-1.63 MPa) than on lower slopes (-1.09 MPa), with those for D. muricatus being intermediate (-1.29 MPa): both species adjusted osmotically between wet and dry times. D. muricatus trees were more deeply rooted than M. wrayi trees (97 v. 70 cm). M. wrayi trees had greater lateral root cross-sectional areas than D. muricatus trees although a greater proportion of this sectional area for D. muricatus was further down the soil profile. D. muricatus appeared to maintain relatively high water potentials during dry periods because of its access to deeper water supplies and thus it largely avoided drought effects, but M. wrayi seemed to be more affected yet tolerant of drought and was more plastic in its response. The interaction between water availability and topography determines these species' distributions and provides insights into how rain forests can withstand occasional strong droughts.

Swiss tree rings reveal warm and wet summers during medieval times

We present a 1200 year drought reconstruction for the European Alpine region based on carbon isotope variations of tree rings from living larch trees and historic timber. The carbon isotope fractionation at the study site is sensitive to summer precipitation, temperature, and irradiance, resulting in a stable and high correlation with a drought index for interannual to decadal frequencies and possibly beyond (r(2)=0.58 for 1901-2004, July/August). When combining this information with maximum latewood density-derived summer temperature, a strongly reduced occurrence of summer droughts during the warm A.D. 900-1200 period is evident, coinciding with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), with a shift to colder and drier conditions for the subsequent centuries. The warm-wet MCA contrasts strongly with the climate of the drought-prone warm phase of the recent decades, indicating different forcing mechanism for these two warm periods and pointing to beneficial conditions for agriculture and human well-being during the MCA in this region.

Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Abies – Circum-Mediterranean firs in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

Most European firs occur predominantly in small to medium-sized populations in the Mediterranean region, sometimes with fragmented and limited distributions, except for silver fir (Abies alba). They all are genetically closely related and can easily hybridise, perhaps as a consequence of late speciation during the late Quaternary. Circum-Mediterranean firs occur principally in mountain areas with medium to high precipitations rates which are mostly concentrated during the winter period. The species are able to tolerate long droughts in summer and tend to form pure stands when in optimal habitats. In the past firs have been extensively logged for construction and fire wood and their stands were replaced by other more disturbance adapted species or converted into rural areas. Nowadays with the exception of silver fir and Caucasian fir (Abies nordmanniana), circum-Mediterranean firs do not have a wide commercial interest. In Turkey they are still exploited for timber wood, while other firs have an ornamental use in gardening. Great importance is given to their preservation, especially to those populations which have very limited areas and specimens, with the creation of protected reserves and conservation programmes. Wild fires, livestock grazing and genetic drift represent actually their main threats.

Primary lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia. Species composition and patterns in the understorey

The spatial distributions of species of tree ≥10 cm gbh were examined in two 4 ha plots and related to the local variation in topography and soil chemistry. The plots were similar in their species composition, particularly in terms of the densities of small trees, and they showed very similar edaphic characteristics. Size class distributions varied little within and between plots. Ordination of 0.25 ha subplots highlighted parallel gradients in the vegetation of both plots when the densities of trees ≥10 cm gbh were considered. Focusing on understorey trees in the 10-<50 cm gbh class at the 0.04 ha subplot scale showed a similar vegetation gradient in both plots closely associated with change from lower slope to ridge. No relationship with soil chemistry was found. On the ridges a special group of understorey species formed clumps and these species contributed importantly to the ordinations. Borneo has a regional history of occasionally severe droughts. It is suggested here that the observed patterns in the understorey are due to differential responses to low soil water supply, the ridges probably tending to dryness more than the lower slopes. Within the large and diverse family Euphorbiaceae, which dominates the understorey at Danum, there may be ecophysiological groupings of species. The long-term effects of disturbance interacting with local edaphic factors on forest structure and composition are discussed.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.