Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.

Climatic and human impacts on mountain vegetation at Lauenensee (Bernese Alps, Switzerland) during the last 14,000 years

Lake sediments from Lauenensee (1381 m a.s.l.), a small lake in the Bernese Alps, were analysed to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history. The chronology is based on 11 calibrated radiocarbon dates on terrestrial plant macrofossils suggesting a basal age of 14,200 cal. BP. Pollen and macrofossil data imply that treeline never reached the lake catchment during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial. Treeline north of the Alps was depressed by c. 300 altitudinal meters, if compared with southern locations. We attribute this difference to colder temperatures and to unbuffered cold air excursions from the ice masses in northern Europe. Afforestation started after the Younger Dryas at 11,600 cal. BP. Early-Holocene tree-Betula and Pinus sylvestris forests were replaced by Abies alba forests around 7500 cal. BP. Continuous high-resolution pollen and macrofossil series allow quantitative assessments of vegetation dynamics at 5900–5200 cal. BP (first expansion of Picea abies, decline of Abies alba) and 4100–2900 cal. BP (first collapse of Abies alba). The first signs of human activity became noticeable during the late Neolithic c. 5700–5200 cal. BP. Cross-correlation analysis shows that the expansion of Alnus viridis and the replacement of Abies alba by Picea abies after c. 5500 cal. BP was most likely a consequence of human disturbance. Abies alba responded very sensitively to a combination of fire and grazing disturbance. Our results imply that the current dominance of Picea abies in the upper montane and subalpine belts is a consequence of anthropogenic activities through the millennia.

The apoptotic and proliferation rate of tumour budding cells in colorectal cancer outlines a heterogeneous population of cells with various impacts on clinical outcome

AIMS In colorectal cancer (CRC), tumour buds represent an aggressive cell type at the invasive front with apparently low proliferation. The aim of this study was to determine proliferation and apoptotic rates of buds in comparison to tumour centre, front and mucosa. METHODS AND RESULTS Whole tissue sections from 188 CRC patients underwent immunohistochemistry for Ki67. Ten high-power fields (HPFs) were evaluated in mucosa, tumour centre, tumour front and tumour buds (total = 40 HPFs/case). Caspase-3 and M30 immunohistochemistry were performed on a multipunch tissue microarray from the same cohort. Ki67, caspase-3 and M30 immunoreactivity were correlated with outcome. The average percentage of cells showing Ki67 positivity was 5.2% in mucosa, and was not significantly different between the centre and front of the tumour (38.2% and 34.9%; P < 0.0001); 0.3% of buds showed Ki67 positivity (P < 0.0001). Caspase-3 expression was similar in mucosa, tumour centre and tumour front, but lower in tumour buds (<0.1%; P < 0.0001). M30 staining in buds was decreased (0.01%; P < 0.0001) in comparison to other areas. Ki67 positivity in buds was detrimental to survival in univariate (P = 0.0352) and multivariate (P = 0.0355) analysis. Caspase-3-positive tumours showed better outcome than negative tumours (P = 0.0262); but tumours with caspase-3-positive buds showed a worse outcome than those with caspase-3-negative buds (P = 0.0235). CONCLUSIONS Ki67, caspase-3 and M30 staining is absent in most tumour buds, suggesting decreased proliferation and apoptosis. However, the fact that Ki67 and caspase-3 immunoreactivity was associated with unfavourable prognosis points to a heterogeneous population of tumour buds.

The influence of recent major crater impacts on the surrounding surfaces of (21) Lutetia

We present 3-D simulations of impacts into Asteroid 21 Lutetia, the subject of a fly-by by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission to Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Using a 3-D shape model of the asteroid, impacts of sizes sufficient to reproduce the observed craters in Lutetia's North Polar Crater Cluster (NPCC) as observed by the OSIRIS experiment have been simulated using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics technique. The asteroid itself has been modelled both as a homogeneous body and as a body with an iron core.

Impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas

INTRODUCTION Out-migration from mountain areas is leaving behind half families and elderly to deal with managing the land alongside daily life challenges. A potential reduction of labour force as well as expertise on cropping practices, maintenance of terraces and irrigation canals, slope stabilization, grazing, forest and other land management practices are further challenged by changing climate conditions and increased environmental threats. An understanding of the resilience of managed land resources in order to enhance adaptation to environmental and socio-economic variability, and evidence of the impact of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) on the mitigation of environmental threats have so far not sufficiently been tackled. The study presented here aims to find out how land management in mountains is being affected by migration in the context of natural hazards and climate change in two study sites, namely Quillacollo District of Bolivia and Panchase area of Western Nepal, and which measures are needed to increase resilience of livelihoods and land management practices. The presentation includes draft results from first field work periods in both sites. A context of high vulnerability According to UNISDR, vulnerability is defined as “the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard”.Hazards are another threat affecting people’s livelihood in mountainous area. They can be either natural or human induced. Landslides, debris flow and flood are affecting peopleGood land management can significantly reduce occurrence of hazards. In the opposite bad land management or land abandonment can lead to negative consequences on the land, and thus again increase vulnerability of people’s livelihoods. METHODS The study integrates bio-physical and socio-economic data through a case study as well as a mapping approach. From the social sciences, well-tested participatory qualitative methodologies, typically used in Vulnerability and Capacity Analyses, such as semi-structured interviews with so-called ‘key informants’, transect walks, participatory risk and social resource mapping are applied. The bio-physical analysis of the current environmental conditions determining hazards and structural vulnerability are obtained from remote sensing analysis, field work studies, and GIS analysis The assessment of the consequences of migration in the area of origin is linked with a mapping and appraisal of land management practices (www.wocat.net, Schwilch et al., 2011). The WOCAT mapping tool (WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008) allows capturing the major land management practices / technologies, their spread, effectiveness and impact within a selected area. Data drawn from a variety of sources are compiled and harmonised by a team of experts, consisting of land degradation and conservation specialists working in consultation with land users from various backgrounds. The specialists’ and land users’ knowledge is combined with existing datasets and documents (maps, GIS layers, high-resolution satellite images, etc.) in workshops that are designed to build consensus regarding the variables used to assess land degradation and SLM. This process is also referred to as participatory expert assessment or consensus mapping. The WOCAT mapping and SLM documentation methodologies are used together with participatory mapping and other socio-economic data collection (interviews, questionnaires, focus group discussions, expert consultation) to combine information about migration types and land management issues. GIS and other spatial visualization tools (e.g. Google maps) will help to represent and understand these links. FIRST RESULTS Nepal In Nepal, migration is a common strategy to improve the livelihoods. Migrants are mostly men and they migrate to other Asian countries, first to India and then to the Gulf countries. Only a few women are migrating abroad. Women migrate essentially to main Nepali cities when they can afford it. Remittances are used primarily for food and education; however they are hardly used for agricultural purposes. Besides traditional agriculture being maintained, only few new practices are emerging, such as vegetable farming or agroforestry. The land abandonment is a growing consequence of outmigration, resulting in the spreading of invasive species. However, most impacts of migration on land management are not yet clear. Moreover, education is a major concern for the respondents; they want their children having a better education and get better opportunities. Linked to this, unemployment is another major concern of the respondents, which in turn is “solved” through outmigration. Bolivia Migration is a common livelihood strategy in Bolivia. In the area of study, whole families are migrating downward to the cities of the valleys or to other departments of Bolivia, especially to Chapare (tropics) for the coca production and to Santa Cruz. Some young people are migrating abroad, mostly to Argentina. There are few remittances and if those are sent to the families in the mountain areas, then they are mainly used for agriculture purpose. The impacts of migration on land management practices are not clear although there are some important aspects to be underlined. The people who move downward are still using their land and coming back during part of the week to work on it. As a consequence of this multi-residency, there is a tendency to reduce land management work or to change the way the land is used. As in Nepal, education is a very important issue in this area. There is no secondary school, and only one community has a primary school. After the 6th grade students have therefore to go down into the valley towns to study. The lack of basic education is pushing more and more people to move down and to leave the mountains. CONCLUSIONS This study is on-going, more data have to be collected to clearly assess the impacts of out-migration on land management in mountain areas. The first results of the study allow us to present a few interesting findings. The two case studies are very different, however in both areas, young people are not staying anymore in the mountains and leave behind half families and elderly to manage the land. Additionally in both cases education is a major reason for moving out, even though the causes are not always the same. More specifically, in the case of Nepal, the use of remittances underlines the fact that investment in agriculture is not the first choice of a family. In the case of Bolivia, some interesting findings showed that people continue to work on their lands even if they move downward. The further steps of the study will help to explore these interesting issues in more detail. REFERENCES Schwilch G., Bestelmeyer B., Bunning S., Critchley W., Herrick J., Kellner K., Liniger H.P., Nachtergaele F., Ritsema C.J., Schuster B., Tabo R., van Lynden G., Winslow M. 2011. Experiences in Monitoring and Assessment of Sustainable Land Management. Land Degradation & Development 22 (2), 214-225. Doi 10.1002/ldr.1040 WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE 2008. A Questionnaire for Mapping Land Degradation and Sustainable Land Management. Liniger H.P., van Lynden G., Nachtergaele F., Schwilch G. (eds), Centre for Development and Environment, Institute of Geography, University of Berne, Berne