Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

The deglaciation history of the Simplon region (southern Swiss Alps) constrained by 10Be exposure dating of ice-molded bedrock surfaces

The deglaciation history of the Swiss Alps after the Last Glacial Maximum involved the decay of several ice domes and the subsequent disintegration of valley glaciers at high altitude. Here we use bedrock exposure dating to reconstruct the temporal and spatial pattern of ice retreat at the Simplon Pass (altitude: ∼2000 m) located 40 km southwest of the ‘Rhône ice dome’. Eleven 10Be exposure ages from glacially polished quartz veins and ice-molded bedrock surfaces cluster tightly between 13.5 ± 0.6 ka and 15.4 ± 0.6 ka (internal errors) indicating that the Simplon Pass depression became ice-free at 14.1 ± 0.4 ka (external error of mean age). This age constraint is interpreted to record the melting of the high valley glaciers in the Simplon Pass region during the warm Bølling–Allerød interstadial shortly after the Oldest Dryas stadial. Two bedrock samples collected a few hundred meters above the pass depression yield older 10Be ages of 17.8 ± 0.6 ka and 18.0 ± 0.6 ka. These ages likely reflect the initial downwasting of the Rhône ice dome and the termination of the ice transfluence from the ice dome across the Simplon Pass toward the southern foreland. There, the retreat of the piedmont glacier in Val d’Ossola was roughly synchronous with the decay of the Rhône ice dome in the interior of the mountain belt, as shown by 10Be ages of 17.7 ± 0.9 ka and 16.1 ± 0.6 ka for a whaleback at ∼500 m elevation near Montecrestese in northern Italy. In combination with well-dated paleoclimate records derived from lake sediments, our new age data suggest that during the deglaciation of the European Alps the decay of ice domes was approximately synchronous with the retreat of piedmont glaciers in the foreland and was followed by the melting of high-altitude valley glaciers after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød, when mean annual temperatures rose rapidly by ∼3 °C.

Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling with Project Management Information Systems

Most commercial project management software packages include planning methods to devise schedules for resource-constrained projects. As it is proprietary information of the software vendors which planning methods are implemented, the question arises how the software packages differ in quality with respect to their resource-allocation capabilities. We experimentally evaluate the resource-allocation capabilities of eight recent software packages by using 1,560 instances with 30, 60, and 120 activities of the well-known PSPLIB library. In some of the analyzed packages, the user may influence the resource allocation by means of multi-level priority rules, whereas in other packages, only few options can be chosen. We study the impact of various complexity parameters and priority rules on the project duration obtained by the software packages. The results indicate that the resource-allocation capabilities of these packages differ significantly. In general, the relative gap between the packages gets larger with increasing resource scarcity and with increasing number of activities. Moreover, the selection of the priority rule has a considerable impact on the project duration. Surprisingly, when selecting a priority rule in the packages where it is possible, both the mean and the variance of the project duration are in general worse than for the packages which do not offer the selection of a priority rule.

The Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem with Work-Content Constraints

For executing the activities of a project, one or several resources are required, which are in general scarce. Many resource-allocation methods assume that the usage of these resources by an activity is constant during execution; in practice, however, the project manager may vary resource usage by individual activities over time within prescribed bounds. This variation gives rise to the project scheduling problem which consists in allocating the scarce resources to the project activities over time such that the project duration is minimized, the total number of resource units allocated equals the prescribed work content of each activity, and precedence and various work-content-related constraints are met.

Effects of Anxiety on Anticipation and Visual Search in Dynamic, Time-Constrained Situations

We tested the predictions of Attentional Control Theory (ACT) by examining how anxiety affects visual search strategies, performance efficiency, and performance effectiveness using a dynamic, temporal-constrained anticipation task. Higher and lower skilled players viewed soccer situations under 2 task constraints (near vs. far situation) and were tested under high (HA) and low (LA) anxiety conditions. Response accuracy (effectiveness) and response time, perceived mental effort, and eye-movements (all efficiency) were recorded. A significant increase in anxiety was evidenced by higher state anxiety ratings on the MRF-L scale. Increased anxiety led to decreased performance efficiency because response times and mental effort increased for both skill groups whereas response accuracy did not differ. Anxiety influenced search strategies, with higher skilled players showing a decrease in number of fixation locations for far situations under HA compared with LA condition when compared with lower skilled players. Findings provide support for ACT with anxiety impairing processing efficiency and, potentially, top-down attentional control across different task constraints.

On an Application of Microsoft Excel’s Evolutionary Solver to the Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem RCPSP

The Solver Add-in of Microsoft Excel is widely used in courses on Operations Research and in industrial applications. Since the 2010 version of Microsoft Excel, the Solver Add-in comprises a so-called evolutionary solver. We analyze how this metaheuristic can be applied to the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). We present an implementation of a schedule-generation scheme in a spreadsheet, which combined with the evolutionary solver can be used for devising good feasible schedules. Our computational results indicate that using this approach, non-trivial instances of the RCPSP can be (approximately) solved to optimality.

MASCG: Multi-Atlas Segmentation Constrained Graph method for accurate segmentation of hip CT images

This paper addresses the issue of fully automatic segmentation of a hip CT image with the goal to preserve the joint structure for clinical applications in hip disease diagnosis and treatment. For this purpose, we propose a Multi-Atlas Segmentation Constrained Graph (MASCG) method. The MASCG method uses multi-atlas based mesh fusion results to initialize a bone sheetness based multi-label graph cut for an accurate hip CT segmentation which has the inherent advantage of automatic separation of the pelvic region from the bilateral proximal femoral regions. We then introduce a graph cut constrained graph search algorithm to further improve the segmentation accuracy around the bilateral hip joint regions. Taking manual segmentation as the ground truth, we evaluated the present approach on 30 hip CT images (60 hips) with a 15-fold cross validation. When the present approach was compared to manual segmentation, an average surface distance error of 0.30 mm, 0.29 mm, and 0.30 mm was found for the pelvis, the left proximal femur, and the right proximal femur, respectively. A further look at the bilateral hip joint regions demonstrated an average surface distance error of 0.16 mm, 0.21 mm and 0.20 mm for the acetabulum, the left femoral head, and the right femoral head, respectively.