Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2

We compare modeled oceanic carbon uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions using a suite of global ocean models and Earth system models. In response to a CO2 pulse emission of 590 Pg C (corresponding to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 556 ppm), the fraction of CO2 emitted that is absorbed by the ocean is: 37±8%, 56±10%, and 81±4% (model mean ±2σ ) in year 30, 100, and 1000 after the emission pulse, respectively. Modeled oceanic uptake of pulse CO2 on timescales from decades to about a century is strongly correlated with simulated present-day uptake of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and CO2 across all models, while the amount of pulse CO2 absorbed by the ocean from a century to a millennium is strongly correlated with modeled radiocarbon in the deep Southern and Pacific Ocean. However, restricting the analysis to models that are capable of reproducing observations within uncertainty, the correlation is generally much weaker. The rates of surface-to-deep ocean transport are determined for individual models from the instantaneous doubling CO2 simulations, and they are used to calculate oceanic CO2 uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions of different sizes pulses of 1000 and 5000 Pg C. These results are compared with simulated oceanic uptake of CO2 by a number of models simulations with the coupling of climate-ocean carbon cycle and without it. This comparison demonstrates that the impact of different ocean transport rates across models on oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is of similar magnitude as that of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in a single model, emphasizing the important role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2.

Benefit of pulmonary vein isolation guided by loss of pace capture on the ablation line: results from a prospective 2-center randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES This study was conducted to determine if an additional procedural endpoint of unexcitability (UE) to pacing along the ablation line reduces recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial tachycardia (AT) after radiofrequency catheter ablation. BACKGROUND AF/AT recurrence is common after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). METHODS We included 102 patients from 2 centers (age 63 ± 10 years; 33 women; left atrium 38 ± 7 mm; left ventricular ejection fraction 61 ± 6%) with symptomatic paroxysmal AF. A 3-dimensional mapping system and circumferential mapping catheter were used in all patients for PVI. In group 1 (n = 50), the procedural endpoint was bidirectional block across the ablation line. In group 2 (n = 52), additional UE to bipolar pacing at an output of 10 mA and 2-ms pulse width was required. The primary endpoint was freedom from any AF/AT (>30 s) after discontinuation of antiarrhythmic drugs. RESULTS Procedural endpoints were successfully achieved in all patients. Procedure duration was significantly longer in group 2 (185 ± 58 min vs. 139 ± 57 min; p < 0.001); however, fluoroscopy times were not different (23 ± 9 min vs. 23 ± 9 min; p = 0.49). After a follow-up of 12 months in all patients, 26 patients (52%) in group 1 versus 43 (82.7%) in group 2 were free from any AF/AT (p = 0.001) after a single procedure. No major complications occurred. CONCLUSIONS The use of pacing to ensure UE along the PVI line markedly improved near-term single-procedure success, compared with demonstration of bidirectional block alone. This additional endpoint significantly improved patient outcomes after PVI. (Unexcitability Along the Ablation as an Endpoint for Atrial Fibrillation Ablation; NCT01724437).

Fabric-mechanical property relationships of trabecular bone allografts are altered by supercritical CO2 treatment and gamma sterilization

Tissue grafts are implanted in orthopedic surgery every day. In order to minimize infection risk, bone allografts are often delipidated with supercritical CO2 and sterilized prior to implantation. This treatment may, however, impair the mechanical behavior of the bone graft tissue. The goal of this study was to determine clinically relevant mechanical properties of treated/sterilized human trabecular bone grafts, e.g. the apparent modulus, strength, and the ability to absorb energy during compaction. They were compared with results of identical experiments performed previously on untreated/fresh frozen human trabecular bone from the same anatomical site (Charlebois, 2008). We tested the hypothesis that the morphology–mechanical property relationships of treated cancellous allografts are similar to those of fresh untreated bone. The morphology of the allografts was determined by μCT. Subsequently, cylindrical samples were tested in unconfined and confined compression. To account for various morphologies, the experimental data was fitted to phenomenological mechanical models for elasticity, strength, and dissipated energy density based on bone volume fraction (BV/TV) and the fabric tensor determined by MIL. The treatment/sterilization process does not appear to influence bone graft stiffness. However, strength and energy dissipation of the bone grafts were found to be significantly reduced by 36% to 47% and 66% to 81%, respectively, for a broad range of volume fraction (0.14 < BV/TV < 0.39) and degree of anisotropy (1.24 < DA < 2.18). Since the latter properties are strongly dominated by BV/TV, the clinical consequences of this reduction can be compensated by using grafts with lower porosity. The data of this study suggests that an increase of 5–10% in BV/TV is sufficient to compensate for the reduced post-yield mechanical properties of treated/sterilized bone in monotonic compression. In applications where graft stiffness needs to be matched and strength is not a concern, treated allograft with the same BV/TV as an appropriate fresh bone graft may be used.

Estimating Annual CO2 Flux for Lutjewad Station Using Three Different Gap-Filling Techniques

Long-term measurements of CO2 flux can be obtained using the eddy covariance technique, but these datasets are affected by gaps which hinder the estimation of robust long-term means and annual ecosystem exchanges. We compare results obtained using three gap-fill techniques: multiple regression (MR), multiple imputation (MI), and artificial neural networks (ANNs), applied to a one-year dataset of hourly CO2 flux measurements collected in Lutjewad, over a flat agriculture area near the Wadden Sea dike in the north of the Netherlands. The dataset was separated in two subsets: a learning and a validation set. The performances of gap-filling techniques were analysed by calculating statistical criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), maximum absolute error (MaxAE), and mean square bias (MSB). The gap-fill accuracy is seasonally dependent, with better results in cold seasons. The highest accuracy is obtained using ANN technique which is also less sensitive to environmental/seasonal conditions. We argue that filling gaps directly on measured CO2 fluxes is more advantageous than the common method of filling gaps on calculated net ecosystem change, because ANN is an empirical method and smaller scatter is expected when gap filling is applied directly to measurements.

Optimizing the size of the area surveyed for monitoring a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) population in the Swiss Alps by means of photographic capture-recapture

We studied the influence of surveyed area size on density estimates by means of camera-trapping in a low-density felid population (1-2 individuals/100 km(2) ). We applied non-spatial capture-recapture (CR) and spatial CR (SCR) models for Eurasian lynx during winter 2005/2006 in the northwestern Swiss Alps by sampling an area divided into 5 nested plots ranging from 65 to 760 km(2) . CR model density estimates (95% CI) for models M0 and Mh decreased from 2.61 (1.55-3.68) and 3.6 (1.62-5.57) independent lynx/100 km(2) , respectively, in the smallest to 1.20 (1.04-1.35) and 1.26 (0.89-1.63) independent lynx/100 km(2) , respectively, in the largest area surveyed. SCR model density estimates also decreased with increasing sampling area but not significantly. High individual range overlaps in relatively small areas (the edge effect) is the most plausible reason for this positive bias in the CR models. Our results confirm that SCR models are much more robust to changes in trap array size than CR models, thus avoiding overestimation of density in smaller areas. However, when a study is concerned with monitoring population changes, large spatial efforts (area surveyed ≥760 km(2) ) are required to obtain reliable and precise density estimates with these population densities and recapture rates.