Rates of disease progression according to initial highly active antiretroviral therapy regimen: a collaborative analysis of 12 prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND: No large clinical end-point trials have been conducted comparing regimens among human immunodeficiency virus type 1-positive persons starting antiretroviral therapy. We examined clinical progression according to initial regimen in the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, which is based on 12 European and North American cohort studies. METHODS: We analyzed progression to death from any cause and to AIDS or death (AIDS/death), comparing efavirenz (EFV), nevirapine (NVP), nelfinavir, idinavir, ritonavir (RTV), RTV-boosted protease inhibitors (PIs), saquinavir, and abacavir. We also compared nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor pairs: zidovudine/lamivudine (AZT/3TC), stavudine (D4T)/3TC, D4T/didanosine (DDI), and others. RESULTS: A total of 17,666 treatment-naive patients, 55,622 person-years at risk, 1,617 new AIDS events, and 895 deaths were analyzed. Compared with EFV, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for AIDS/death was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.60) for NVP, 1.31 (95% CI, 1.01-1.71) for RTV, and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.15-1.81) for RTV-boosted PIs. For death, the adjusted HR for NVP was 1.65 (95% CI, 1.16-2.36). The adjusted HR for death for D4T/3TC was 1.35 (95% CI, 1.14-1.59), compared with AZT/3TC. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes may vary across initial regimens. Results are observational and may have been affected by bias due to unmeasured or residual confounding. There is a need for large, randomized, clinical end-point trials.

The effect of tocopheryl phosphates on atherosclerosis progression in rabbits fed with a high cholesterol diet

The effect of tocopheryl phosphate on atherosclerosis progression has been studied in rabbits, fed with a 2% cholesterol diet and compared with an equivalent amount of alpha-tocopheryl acetate. The results show that the atherosclerotic-preventing effect of the phosphate derivative was more pronounced than that of the acetate derivative. alpha-Tocopheryl phosphate was also more potent in diminishing the expression of CD36 than the acetate derivative.

Correlation between the area of increased autofluorescence surrounding geographic atrophy and disease progression in patients with AMD

PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that the extension of areas with increased fundus autofluorescence (FAF) outside atrophic patches correlates with the rate of spread of geographic atrophy (GA) over time in eyes with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: The database of the multicenter longitudinal natural history Fundus Autofluorescence in AMD (FAM) Study was reviewed for patients with GA recruited through the end of August 2003, with follow-up examinations within at least 1 year. Only eyes with sufficient image quality and with diffuse patterns of increased FAF surrounding atrophy were chosen. In standardized digital FAF images (excitation, 488 nm; emission, >500 nm), total size and spread of GA was measured. The convex hull (CH) of increased FAF as the minimum polygon encompassing the entire area of increased FAF surrounding the central atrophic patches was quantified at baseline. Statistical analysis was performed with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho). RESULTS: Thirty-nine eyes of 32 patients were included (median age, 75.0 years; interquartile range [IQR], 67.8-78.9); median follow-up, 1.87 years; IQR, 1.43-3.37). At baseline, the median total size of atrophy was 7.04 mm2 (IQR, 4.20-9.88). The median size of the CH was 21.47 mm2 (IQR, 15.19-28.26). The median rate of GA progression was 1.72 mm2 per year (IQR, 1.10-2.83). The area of increased FAF around the atrophy (difference between the CH and the total GA size at baseline) showed a positive correlation with GA enlargement over time (rho=0.60; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: FAF characteristics that are not identified by fundus photography or fluorescein angiography may serve as a prognostic determinant in advanced atrophic AMD. As the FAF signal originates from lipofuscin (LF) in postmitotic RPE cells and since increased FAF indicates excessive LF accumulation, these findings would underscore the pathophysiological role of RPE-LF in AMD pathogenesis.

MRI follow-up of TNF-dependent differential progression of atherosclerotic wall-thickening in mouse aortic arch from early to advanced stages

OBJECTIVES: An optimized, longitudinal in vivo magnetic resonance vessel wall-imaging protocol was evaluated regarding its capability of detecting differences in the time-dependent atherosclerotic lesion progression in the aortic arch between ApoE(-/-) and double-deficient ApoE(-/-)/TNF(-/-) mice at comparatively early plaque development stages. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Seven ApoE(-/-) and seven ApoE(-/-)/TNF(-/-) female mice underwent MRI at 11.75 teslas at four stages up to 26 weeks of age. A double-gated spin-echo MRI sequence was used with careful perpendicular slice positioning to visualize the vessel wall of the ascending aortic arch. RESULTS: Wall-thickness progression measured with MRI was significant at 11 weeks of age in ApoE(-/-) mice, but only at 26 weeks in ApoE(-/-)/TNF(-/-) mice. A significant correlation was found between MRI wall-thickness and lesion area determined on histology. CONCLUSION: MRI was shown to be sensitive enough to reveal subtle genetically-induced differences in lesion progression at ages earlier than 25 weeks.

The association of the composite IL-1 genotype with periodontitis progression and/or treatment outcomes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Genetically transmitted traits such as cytokine gene polymorphisms may accentuate the host inflammatory response to the bacterial challenge and influence susceptibility to periodontitis. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the evidence of an association between the interleukin-1 (IL-1) composite genotype, i.e. presence of the allele 2 in the gene clusters IL-1A-889 and in IL-1B +3953, and periodontitis progression and/or treatment outcomes. Material and Methods: Based on the focused question, a search was conducted for longitudinal clinical trials comparing progression of periodontitis and/or treatment outcomes in IL-1 genotype-positive (carrying allele 2) and IL-1 genotype-negative (not carrying allele 2) subjects. A search in the National Library of Medicine computerized bibliographic database MEDLINE and a manual search were performed. Selection of publications, extraction of data and validity assessment were made independently by two reviewers. RESULTS: The search provided 122 titles of which 11 longitudinal publications were included. The heterogeneity of the data prevented the performance of a meta-analysis. While findings from some publications rejected a possible role of IL-1 composite genotype on progression of periodontitis after various therapies, other reported a prognostic value for disease progression of the positive IL-1 genotype status. When assessed on a multivariate risk assessment model, several publications concluded that the assessment of the IL-1 composite genotype in conjunction with other covariates (e.g. smoking and presence of specific bacteria) may provide additional information on disease progression. The small sample size of the available publications, however, requires caution in the interpretation of the results. CONCLUSION: Based on these findings, (i) there is insufficient evidence to establish if a positive IL-1 genotype status contributes to progression of periodontitis and/or treatment outcomes. Therefore, (ii) results obtained with commercially available tests should be interpreted with caution.

Spontaneous progression of ligature induced peri-implantitis at implants with different surface roughness: an experimental study in dogs

BACKGROUND: Peri-implantitis is associated with the presence of submarginal plaque, soft-tissue inflammation and advanced breakdown of the supporting bone. The progression of peri-implantitis following varying periods of continuing plaque accumulation has been studied in animal models. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the current experiment was to study the progression of peri-implantitis around implants with different surface roughness. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In five beagle dogs, three implants with either a sandblasted acid-etched surface (SLA) or a polished surface (P) were installed bilaterally in the edentulous premolar regions. After 3 months on a plaque control regimen, experimental peri-implantitis was induced by ligature placement and plaque accumulation was allowed to progress until about 40% of the height of the supporting bone had been lost. After this 4-month period, ligatures were removed and plaque accumulation was continued for an additional 5 months. Radiographs of all implant sites were obtained before and after 'active' experimental peri-implantitis as well as at the end of the experiment. Biopsies were harvested and the tissue samples were prepared for light microscopy. The sections were used for histometric and morphometric examinations. RESULTS: The radiographic examinations indicated that similar amounts of bone loss occurred at SLA and P sites during the active breakdown period, while the progression of bone loss was larger at SLA than at polished sites following ligature removal. The histological examination revealed that both bone loss and the size of the inflammatory lesion in the connective tissue were larger in SLA than in polished implant sites. The area of plaque was also larger at implants with an SLA surface than at implants with a polished surface. CONCLUSION: It is suggested that the progression of peri-implantitis, if left untreated, is more pronounced at implants with a moderately rough surface than at implants with a polished surface.

Cytokine activation and disease progression in patients with stable moderate chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND: Activation of the cytokine and the complement system is associated with disease progression in severe congestive heart failure (CHF). Magnitude and prognostic relevance of cytokine and complement activation remain uncertain in patients with moderate CHF. OBJECTIVES: Measurement of cytokine and complement activation in patients with moderate CHF and testing whether C-reactive protein (CRP) can serve as a surrogate marker of their activation, adding independent prognostic information when co-measured with B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). METHODS: The 118 study participants were separated into three groups based on pre-determined CRP and BNP levels: Group I (n = 27; CRP > 5 mg/liter, BNP > or = 200 pg/ml); Group II (n = 46; CRP < or = 5 mg/liter, BNP > or = 200 pg/ml); and Group III (n = 45; CRP < or = 5 mg/liter, BNP < 200 pg/ml). RESULTS: Mortality was high in Group I (30%; log-rank p < 0.001) but low in Groups II and III (2% and 4%, respectively; log rank, p = 0.7). No differences were observed for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD) between Groups I and II (31 +/- 16 vs 32 +/- 14% and 66 +/- 16 vs 65 +/- 11 mm, respectively), whereas in Group III LVEF was higher (42 +/- 17%, p = 0.002) with smaller LVEDD (57 +/- 13 mm, p = 0.012). Cytokine sCD14 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha levels were not different between the three groups. However, interleukin-6 levels (9.75 +/- 8.17 pg/ml, p = 0.001) and the terminal complement complex C5b-9 (109.9 +/- 68 ng/ml; p = 0.04) were elevated in Group I, both correlating with CRP (interleukin-6: r = 0.5, p < 0.001; C5b-9: r = 0.41, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CRP may be used as a surrogate parameter for interleukin-6 and complement activation in moderate CHF. CRP in combination with BNP identifies a high-risk group with a tendency for poor outcome not discriminated by cardiac function.

HIV-1 coreceptor usage and CXCR4-specific viral load predict clinical disease progression during combination antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: Although combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) dramatically reduces rates of AIDS and death, a minority of patients experience clinical disease progression during treatment. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether detection of CXCR4(X4)-specific strains or quantification of X4-specific HIV-1 load predict clinical outcome. METHODS: From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 96 participants who initiated cART yet subsequently progressed to AIDS or death were compared with 84 contemporaneous, treated nonprogressors. A sensitive heteroduplex tracking assay was developed to quantify plasma X4 and CCR5 variants and resolve HIV-1 load into coreceptor-specific components. Measurements were analyzed as cofactors of progression in multivariable Cox models adjusted for concurrent CD4 cell count and total viral load, applying inverse probability weights to adjust for sampling bias. RESULTS: Patients with X4 variants at baseline displayed reduced CD4 cell responses compared with those without X4 strains (40 versus 82 cells/microl; P = 0.012). The adjusted multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for clinical progression was 4.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-10.0] for those demonstrating X4 strains at baseline. The X4-specific HIV-1 load was a similarly independent predictor, with HR values of 3.7 (95% CI, 1.2-11.3) and 5.9 (95% CI, 2.2-15.0) for baseline loads of 2.2-4.3 and > 4.3 log10 copies/ml, respectively, compared with < 2.2 log10 copies/ml. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-1 coreceptor usage and X4-specific viral loads strongly predicted disease progression during cART, independent of and in addition to CD4 cell count or total viral load. Detection and quantification of X4 strains promise to be clinically useful biomarkers to guide patient management and study HIV-1 pathogenesis.

Post-challenge glucose predicts coronary atherosclerotic progression in non-diabetic, post-menopausal women

AIMS: We sought to determine whether fasting or post-challenge glucose were associated with progression of coronary atherosclerosis in non-diabetic women. METHODS: We performed a post-hoc analysis of 132 non-diabetic women who underwent 75-g oral glucose tolerance testing. The primary outcome of interest was progression of atherosclerosis determined by baseline and follow-up coronary angiography, a mean of 3.1 +/- 0.9 years apart. We analysed the association of change in minimal vessel diameter (DeltaMD) by quartile of fasting and post-challenge glucose using mixed models that included adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, total : high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, current smoking, lipid-lowering and anti-hypertensive medication use and other covariates. RESULTS: At baseline, participants had a mean age of 65.7 +/- 6.7 years and a mean body mass index of 27.9 +/- 8.5 kg/m(2). Although there were no significant differences in atherosclerotic progression by fasting glucose category (P for trend across quartiles = 0.99), there was a significant inverse association between post-challenge glucose and DeltaMD (in mm) (Q1 : 0.01 +/- 0.03; Q2 : 0.08 +/- 0.03; Q3 : 0.13 +/- 0.03; Q4 : 0.11 +/- 0.03; P for trend = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In post-menopausal women without diabetes, post-challenge glucose predicts angiographic disease progression. These findings suggest that even modest post-challenge hyperglycaemia influences the pathogenesis of atherosclerotic progression.

Fasting plasma glucose predicts survival and angiographic progression in high-risk postmenopausal women with coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND: We studied the association of baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels with survival and coronary artery disease (CAD) progression among postmenopausal women without unstable angina. METHODS: Women were recruited from seven centers in the Women's Angiographic Vitamin and Estrogen Trial (WAVE) (n = 423). Event follow-up was available for 400 women (65.1 +/- 8.5 years, 66% white, 92% hypertensive, 19% smokers, 67% hypercholesterolemic). Thirty-eight percent of the women had diabetes or FPG > 125 mg/dL, and 21% had a fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL. Follow-up angiography was performed in 304 women. Cox regression was used to model survival from a composite outcome of death or myocardial infarction (D/MI, 26 events; median follow-up 2.4 years). Angiographic progression was analyzed quantitatively using linear regression accounting for baseline minimum lumen diameter (MLD), follow-up time, and intrasubject correlations using generalized estimating equations. Regression analyses were adjusted for follow-up time, baseline age, treatment assignment, and Framingham risk (excluding diabetes). RESULTS: Women with impaired fasting glucose/diabetes mellitus (IFG/DM) had a relative risk (RR) of D/MI of 4.2 ( p = 0.009). In all women, each 10 mg/dL increase in FPG was associated with an 11% increase ( p < 0.001) in the hazard of D/MI. Each 10 mg/dL increase in FPG was associated with a 6.8 mum decrease in MLD over the follow-up period ( p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Higher FPG is associated with increased risk of D/MI and greater narrowing of the coronary lumen in women with CAD. Aggressive monitoring of glucose levels may be beneficial for secondary CAD prevention.

Influence of residual pockets on progression of periodontitis and tooth loss: results after 11 years of maintenance

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the significance of residual probing pocket depth (PPD) as a predictive parameter for periodontal disease progression and tooth loss. AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of residual PPD >or=5 mm and bleeding on probing (BOP) after active periodontal therapy (APT) on the progression of periodontitis and tooth loss. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort, 172 patients were examined after APT and supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) for 3-27 years (mean 11.3 years). Analyses were conducted using information at site, tooth and patient levels. The association of risk factors with tooth loss and progression of periodontitis was investigated using multilevel logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The number of residual PPD increased during SPT. Compared with PPDor=7 mm 37.9 and 64.2, respectively. At patient level, heavy smoking, initial diagnosis, duration of SPT and PPD>or=6 mm were risk factors for disease progression, while PPD>or=6 mm and BOP>or=30% represented a risk for tooth loss. CONCLUSION: Residual PPD>or=6 mm represent an incomplete periodontal treatment outcome and require further therapy.

Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

Progression of atherosclerosis in ApoE-deficient mice that express distinct molecular forms of TNF-alpha

TNFalpha (TNF) critically regulates inflammation-driven atherosclerosis. Because the transmembrane (tmTNF) and soluble (sTNF) forms of TNF possess distinct immuno-modulatory properties, we hypothesized that they might differentially regulate atherosclerosis progression. Three groups of male ApoE(-/-) mice were studied: one expressing wild-type TNF (WT-TNF); one expressing exclusively a mutated non-cleavable form of TNF (KI-TNF); and one deficient in TNF (KO-TNF). Mice aged 5 weeks were fed the high-fat diet for 5 (T5) and 15 weeks (T15) or a standard chow diet for 15 weeks. At T5, in mice fed the high-fat diet, no significant differences in lesion area were observed among the three groups, either in valves or in aortas. At T15, lesion areas in valves were significantly lower in KO-TNF mice compared with those in WT-TNF mice, whereas in KI-TNF mice, they were intermediate between KO- and WT-TNF mice but not significantly different from these two groups. In aortas, lesions in KI-TNF were comparable to those of KO-TNF, both being significantly lower than those in WT-TNF. Theses differences were not linked to circulating lipids, or to macrophage, actin, and collagen contents of lesions. At T15, in mice fed the chow diet, lesion areas in valves and the aortic arch were not significantly different between the three groups. Levels of IL-6, IFNgamma, IL-10, and Foxp3 mRNAs in spleens and production of IL-6, IL-10, MCP-1, RANTES, and TNFR-2 by peritoneal macrophages at T15 of the high-fat diet showed a decrease in pro-inflammatory status, more marked in KO-TNF than in KI-TNF mice. Apoptosis was reduced only in KO-TNF mice. In conclusion, these data show that TNF effects on atherosclerosis development are detectable at stages succeeding fatty streaks and that wild-type TNF is superior to tmTNF alone in promoting atherosclerosis. TNF-dependent progression of atherosclerosis is probably linked to the differential production of pro-inflammatory mediators whether tmTNF is preponderant or essentially cleaved. Copyright (c) 2008 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley ; Sons, Ltd.