68 resultados para calibration of rainfall-runoff models
Resumo:
Stable isotope analyses of discrete seasonal layers from a 108-yr annually laminated freeze-core from Baldeg-gersee, a small, eutrophic lake in central Switzerland, provide information on the climatological and environmental factors, including lake eutrophication, that control oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of epilimnic biologically induced calcite precipitate. During the last 100 yr, Baldeggersee has undergone major increases in productivity and eutrophication in response to nutrient loading from agriculture and industrialization in the lake's watershed. Calibration of the isotopic signal in Baldeggersee to historical limnological data quantitatively links evidence of isotopic depletion in the sedimented calcite to trophic state of the lake. δ18O values from the spring/summer “light” sediment layers steadily diverged to more depleted values in response to historical eutrophication: measured δ18O values were up to 21.5‰ more negative than calculated equilibrium δ18O values. Evidence for 13C depletion in the calcite, relative to equilibrium values, is more difficult to ascertain because of an overall dominance of isotopic enrichment in the dissolved inorganic pool as productivity in Baldeggersee increases. A positive association exists between the degree of oxygen-18 depletion and the calcite crystal size. Thus, large amorphous calcite grains can be used as a proxy for recognizing apparent isotopic nonequilibrium in sediment sequences from highly productive lacustrine environments from all geologic time scales. In contrast to the light layers, the oxygen isotopic composition of the calcite in the late summer/fall “dark” sediment layers is unaffected by the apparent isotope nonequilibrium. Oxygen and carbon isotope values from the dark laminae in the Baldeggersee sediment therefore provide environmental and climatological proxies that can be calibrated with known environmental and regional climate data for the last century.
Resumo:
One to two percent of all children are born with a developmental disorder requiring pediatric hospital admissions. For many such syndromes, the molecular pathogenesis remains poorly characterized. Parallel developmental disorders in other species could provide complementary models for human rare diseases by uncovering new candidate genes, improving the understanding of the molecular mechanisms and opening possibilities for therapeutic trials. We performed various experiments, e.g. combined genome-wide association and next generation sequencing, to investigate the clinico-pathological features and genetic causes of three developmental syndromes in dogs, including craniomandibular osteopathy (CMO), a previously undescribed skeletal syndrome, and dental hypomineralization, for which we identified pathogenic variants in the canine SLC37A2 (truncating splicing enhancer variant), SCARF2 (truncating 2-bp deletion) and FAM20C (missense variant) genes, respectively. CMO is a clinical equivalent to an infantile cortical hyperostosis (Caffey disease), for which SLC37A2 is a new candidate gene. SLC37A2 is a poorly characterized member of a glucose-phosphate transporter family without previous disease associations. It is expressed in many tissues, including cells of the macrophage lineage, e.g. osteoclasts, and suggests a disease mechanism, in which an impaired glucose homeostasis in osteoclasts compromises their function in the developing bone, leading to hyperostosis. Mutations in SCARF2 and FAM20C have been associated with the human van den Ende-Gupta and Raine syndromes that include numerous features similar to the affected dogs. Given the growing interest in the molecular characterization and treatment of human rare diseases, our study presents three novel physiologically relevant models for further research and therapy approaches, while providing the molecular identity for the canine conditions.
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The natural regulation of the water cycle by tropical montane forests is an important ecosystem service. Within this chapter we focus on water balance and regulation of the water cycle. Differences of rainfall-runoff generation across scales change from a near-surface event water driven system in pristine rainforest-covered micro-catchments to a more groundwater pre-event water dominated one on the mesoscale. The highly dynamic discharges are often correlated with total suspended sediment loads. However, we also observed total suspended sediment peaks at times of low flow, indicating a decoupling of erosion and stream transport and a triggering of landslides not directly related to hydrological processes. We also summarize likely future trends of water-related ecosystem services and expect an increase in human use and benefits of fresh water use whereas changes in water regulation and water purification services remain unchanged on a high level.
Resumo:
Data on rainfall, runoff and sediment loss from different land use types have been collected by the Soil Conservation Research Programme in seven small catchments (73-673 hectares) throughout the Ethiopian Highlands since the early 1980s. Monitoring was carried out on a storm-to-storm basis for extended periods of 10-20 years, and the data are analysed here to assess long-term effects of changes. Soil and water conservation technologies were introduced in the early years in the catchments in view of their capacity to reduce runoff and sediment yield. Results indicate that rainfall did not substantially change over the observation periods. Land use changes and land degradation, however, altered runoff, as shown by the data from small test plots (30 m2), which were not altered by conservation measures during the monitoring periods. Sediment delivery from the catchments may have decreased due to soil and water conservation, while runoff rates did not change significantly. Extrapolation of the results in the highlands, however, showed that expansion of cultivated and grazing land induced by population growth may have increased the overall surface runoff. Watershed management in the catchments, finally, had beneficial effects on ecosystem services by reducing soil erosion, restoring soil fertility, enhancing agricultural production, and maintaining overall runoff to the benefit of lowland areas and neighbouring countries.
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Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.
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Yardsticks have been developed to measure dental arch relations in cleft lip and palate (CLP) patients as diagnostic proxies for the underlying skeletal relationship. Travelling with plaster casts to compare results between CLP centres is inefficient so the aim of this study was to investigate the reliability of using digital models or photographs of dental casts instead of plaster casts for rating dental arch relationships in children with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate (CBCLP). Dental casts of children with CBCLP (n=20) were included. Plaster casts, digital models and photographs of the plaster casts were available for all the children at 6, 9, and 12 years of age. All three record formats were scored using the bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP) yardstick by four observers in random order. No significant differences were found for the BCLP yardstick scores among the three formats. The interobserver weighted kappa scores were between 0.672 and 0.934. Comparison between the formats per observer resulted in weighted kappa scores between 0.692 and 0.885. It is concluded that digital models and photographs of dental casts can be used for rating dental arch relationships in patients with CBCLP. These formats are a reliable alternative for BCLP yardstick assessments on conventional plaster casts.
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Over the last decades, considerable efforts have been undertaken in the development of animal models mimicking the pathogenesis of allergic diseases occurring in humans. The mouse has rapidly emerged as the animal model of choice, due to considerations of handling and costs and, importantly, due to the availability of a large and increasing arsenal of genetically modified mouse strains and molecular tools facilitating the analysis of complex disease models. Here, we review latest developments in allergy research that have arisen from in vivo experimentation in the mouse, with a focus on models of food allergy and allergic asthma, which constitute major health problems with increasing incidence in industrialized countries. We highlight recent novel findings and controversies in the field, most of which were obtained through the use of gene-deficient or germ-free mice, and discuss new potential therapeutic approaches that have emerged from animal studies and that aim at attenuating allergic reactions in human patients.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: Several epidemiological studies show that inhalation of particulate matter may cause increased pulmonary morbidity and mortality. Of particular interest are the ultrafine particles that are particularly toxic. In addition more and more nanoparticles are released into the environment; however, the potential health effects of these nanoparticles are yet unknown. OBJECTIVES: To avoid particle toxicity studies with animals many cell culture models have been developed during the past years. METHODS: This review focuses on the most commonly used in vitro epithelial airway and alveolar models to study particle-cell interactions and particle toxicity and highlights advantages and disadvantages of the different models. RESULTS/CONCLUSION: There are many lung cell culture models but none of these models seems to be perfect. However, they might be a great tool to perform basic research or toxicity tests. The focus here is on 3D and co-culture models, which seem to be more realistic than monocultures.
Resumo:
We describe the steady-state function of the ubiquitous mammalian Na/H exchanger (NHE)1 isoform in voltage-clamped Chinese hamster ovary cells, as well as other cells, using oscillating pH-sensitive microelectrodes to quantify proton fluxes via extracellular pH gradients. Giant excised patches could not be used as gigaseal formation disrupts NHE activity within the patch. We first analyzed forward transport at an extracellular pH of 8.2 with no cytoplasmic Na (i.e., nearly zero-trans). The extracellular Na concentration dependence is sigmoidal at a cytoplasmic pH of 6.8 with a Hill coefficient of 1.8. In contrast, at a cytoplasmic pH of 6.0, the Hill coefficient is <1, and Na dependence often appears biphasic. Results are similar for mouse skin fibroblasts and for an opossum kidney cell line that expresses the NHE3 isoform, whereas NHE1(-/-) skin fibroblasts generate no proton fluxes in equivalent experiments. As proton flux is decreased by increasing cytoplasmic pH, the half-maximal concentration (K(1/2)) of extracellular Na decreases less than expected for simple consecutive ion exchange models. The K(1/2) for cytoplasmic protons decreases with increasing extracellular Na, opposite to predictions of consecutive exchange models. For reverse transport, which is robust at a cytoplasmic pH of 7.6, the K(1/2) for extracellular protons decreases only a factor of 0.4 when maximal activity is decreased fivefold by reducing cytoplasmic Na. With 140 mM of extracellular Na and no cytoplasmic Na, the K(1/2) for cytoplasmic protons is 50 nM (pH 7.3; Hill coefficient, 1.5), and activity decreases only 25% with extracellular acidification from 8.5 to 7.2. Most data can be reconstructed with two very different coupled dimer models. In one model, monomers operate independently at low cytoplasmic pH but couple to translocate two ions in "parallel" at alkaline pH. In the second "serial" model, each monomer transports two ions, and translocation by one monomer allosterically promotes translocation by the paired monomer in opposite direction. We conclude that a large fraction of mammalian Na/H activity may occur with a 2Na/2H stoichiometry.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.
Resumo:
This paper studies the energy-efficiency and service characteristics of a recently developed energy-efficient MAC protocol for wireless sensor networks in simulation and on a real sensor hardware testbed. This opportunity is seized to illustrate how simulation models can be verified by cross-comparing simulation results with real-world experiment results. The paper demonstrates that by careful calibration of simulation model parameters, the inevitable gap between simulation models and real-world conditions can be reduced. It concludes with guidelines for a methodology for model calibration and validation of sensor network simulation models.
Resumo:
Dendrogeomorphology uses information sources recorded in the roots, trunks and branches of trees and bushes located in the fluvial system to complement (or sometimes even replace) systematic and palaeohydrological records of past floods. The application of dendrogeomorphic data sources and methods to palaeoflood analysis over nearly 40 years has allowed improvements to be made in frequency and magnitude estimations of past floods. Nevertheless, research carried out so far has shown that the dendrogeomorphic indicators traditionally used (mainly scar evidence), and their use to infer frequency and magnitude, have been restricted to a small, limited set of applications. New possibilities with enormous potential remain unexplored. New insights in future research of palaeoflood frequency and magnitude using dendrogeomorphic data sources should: (1) test the application of isotopic indicators (16O/18O ratio) to discover the meteorological origin of past floods; (2) use different dendrogeomorphic indicators to estimate peak flows with 2D (and 3D) hydraulic models and study how they relate to other palaeostage indicators; (3) investigate improved calibration of 2D hydraulic model parameters (roughness); and (4) apply statistics-based cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. This paper presents an overview of these innovative methodologies, with a focus on their capabilities and limitations in the reconstruction of recent floods and palaeofloods.
Resumo:
Starting from Kagitcibasi's (2007) conceptualization of family models, this study compared N = 2961 adolescents' values across eleven cultures and explored whether patterns of values were related to the three proposed family models through cluster analyses. Three clusters with value profiles corresponding to the family models of interdependence, emotional interdependence, and independence were identified on the cultural as well as on the individual level. Furthermore, individual-level clusters corresponded to culture-level clusters in terms of individual cluster membership. The results largely support Kagitcibasi's proposition of changing family models and demonstrate their representation as individual-level value profiles across cultures.
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A well-dated suite of Lake Van climate-proxy data covering the last 360 ka documents environmental changes over 4 glacial/interglacial cycles in Eastern Anatolia, Turkey. The picture of cold and dry glacials and warm and wet interglacials emerging from pollen, organic carbon, authigenic carbonate content, elemental profiling by XRF and lithological analyses is inconsistent with classical interpretation of ox- ygen isotopic composition of carbonates pointing to a more complex pattern in Lake Van region. Detailed analysis of glacial terminations allows for the constraining of a depositional model explaining different patterns observed in all the proxies. We hypothesize that variations in relative contribution of rainfall, snowmelt and glacier meltwater recharging the basin have a very important role for all sedimentary processes in Lake Van. Lake level of glacial Lake Van, predominantly fed by snowmelt, was low, the water column was oxic, and carbonates precipitating in the epilimnion recorded the light isotopic signature of inflow. During terminations, increasing rainfall and significant supply of mountain glaciers' meltwater contributed to lake level rise. Increased rainfall enhanced density gradients in the water column, and hindered mixing leading to development of bottom-water anoxia. Carbonates precipitating during terminations show large fluctuations in their isotopic composition. Full interglacial conditions in Lake Van are characterized by high or slowly falling lake level. Rainfall and snowmelt feed the lake but due to re-established mixing, the isotopic composition of authigenic carbonates is heavier and closer to that of evaporation-influenced lake water than that of runoff representing snowmelt and atmospheric precipitation.