Prediction of first coronary events with the Framingham score: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty exists about the performance of the Framingham risk score when applied in different populations. OBJECTIVE: We assessed calibration of the Framingham risk score (ie, relationship between predicted and observed coronary event rates) in US and non-US populations free of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We reviewed studies that evaluated the performance of the Framingham risk score to predict first coronary events in a validation cohort, as identified by Medline, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library searches (through August 2005). Two reviewers independently assessed 1496 studies for eligibility, extracted data, and performed quality assessment using predefined forms. RESULTS: We included 25 validation cohorts of different population groups (n = 128,000) in our main analysis. Calibration varied over a wide range from under- to overprediction of absolute risk by factors of 0.57 to 2.7. Risk prediction for 7 cohorts (n = 18658) from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand was well calibrated (corresponding figures: 0.87-1.08; for the 5 biggest cohorts). The estimated population risks for first coronary events were strongly associated (goodness of fit: R2 = 0.84) and in good agreement with observed risks (coefficient for predicted risk: beta = 0.84; 95% CI 0.41-1.26). In 18 European cohorts (n = 109499), the corresponding figures indicated close association (R2 = 0.72) but substantial overprediction (beta = 0.58, 95% CI 0.39-0.77). The risk score was well calibrated on the intercept for both population clusters. CONCLUSION: The Framingham score is well calibrated to predict first coronary events in populations from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Overestimation of absolute risk in European cohorts requires recalibration procedures.

Spectral waveform analysis of intranodal arterial blood flow in abnormally large superficial lymph nodes in dogs

Objective-To evaluate pulsed-wave Doppler spectral parameters as a method for distinguishing between neoplastic and inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs. Sample Population-40 superficial lymph nodes from 33 dogs with peripheral lymphadenopathy. Procedures-3 Doppler spectral tracings were recorded from each node. Spectral Doppler analysis including assessment of the resistive index, peak systolic velocity-to-end diastolic velocity (S:D) ratio, diastolic notch velocity-to-peak systolic velocity (N:S) ratio, and end diastolic velocity-to-diastolic notch velocity ratio was performed for each tracing. Several calculation methods were used to determine the Doppler indices for each lymph node. After the ultrasonographic examination, fine needle aspirates or excisional biopsy specimens of the examined lymph nodes were obtained, and lymphadenopathy was classified as either inflammatory or neoplastic (lymphomatous or metastatic) via cytologic or histologic examination. Results of Doppler analysis were compared with cytologic or histopathologic findings. Results-The Doppler index with the highest diagnostic accuracy was the S:D ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 3.22 yielded sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 100%, and negative predictive value of 89% for detection of neoplasia. Overall diagnostic accuracy was 95%. At a sensitivity of 100%, the most accurate index was the N:S ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 0.45 yielded specificity of 67%, positive predictive value of 81%, and overall diagnostic accuracy of 86.5%. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results suggested that noninvasive Doppler spectral analysis may be useful in the diagnosis of neoplastic versus inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs.

In vivo biochemical 7.0 Tesla magnetic resonance: preliminary results of dGEMRIC, zonal T2, and T2* mapping of articular cartilage

INTRODUCTION: Ultra-high-field whole-body systems (7.0 T) have a high potential for future human in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In musculoskeletal MRI, biochemical imaging of articular cartilage may benefit, in particular. Delayed gadolinium-enhanced MRI of cartilage (dGEMRIC) and T2 mapping have shown potential at 3.0 T. Although dGEMRIC, allows the determination of the glycosaminoglycan content of articular cartilage, T2 mapping is a promising tool for the evaluation of water and collagen content. In addition, the evaluation of zonal variation, based on tissue anisotropy, provides an indicator of the nature of cartilage ie, hyaline or hyaline-like articular cartilage.Thus, the aim of our study was to show the feasibility of in vivo dGEMRIC, and T2 and T2* relaxation measurements, at 7.0 T MRI; and to evaluate the potential of T2 and T2* measurements in an initial patient study after matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantation (MACT) in the knee. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MRI was performed on a whole-body 7.0 T MR scanner using a dedicated circular polarization knee coil. The protocol consisted of an inversion recovery sequence for dGEMRIC, a multiecho spin-echo sequence for standard T2 mapping, a gradient-echo sequence for T2* mapping and a morphologic PD SPACE sequence. Twelve healthy volunteers (mean age, 26.7 +/- 3.4 years) and 4 patients (mean age, 38.0 +/- 14.0 years) were enrolled 29.5 +/- 15.1 months after MACT. For dGEMRIC, 5 healthy volunteers (mean age, 32.4 +/- 11.2 years) were included. T1 maps were calculated using a nonlinear, 2-parameter, least squares fit analysis. Using a region-of-interest analysis, mean cartilage relaxation rate was determined as T1 (0) for precontrast measurements and T1 (Gd) for postcontrast gadopentate dimeglumine [Gd-DTPA(2-)] measurements. T2 and T2* maps were obtained using a pixelwise, monoexponential, non-negative least squares fit analysis; region-of-interest analysis was carried out for deep and superficial cartilage aspects. Statistical evaluation was performed by analyses of variance. RESULTS: Mean T1 (dGEMRIC) values for healthy volunteers showed slightly different results for femoral [T1 (0): 1259 +/- 277 ms; T1 (Gd): 683 +/- 141 ms] compared with tibial cartilage [T1 (0): 1093 +/- 281 ms; T1 (Gd): 769 +/- 150 ms]. Global mean T2 relaxation for healthy volunteers showed comparable results for femoral (T2: 56.3 +/- 15.2 ms; T2*: 19.7 +/- 6.4 ms) and patellar (T2: 54.6 +/- 13.0 ms; T2*: 19.6 +/- 5.2 ms) cartilage, but lower values for tibial cartilage (T2: 43.6 +/- 8.5 ms; T2*: 16.6 +/- 5.6 ms). All healthy cartilage sites showed a significant increase from deep to superficial cartilage (P < 0.001). Within healthy cartilage sites in MACT patients, adequate values could be found for T2 (56.6 +/- 13.2 ms) and T2* (18.6 +/- 5.3 ms), which also showed a significant stratification. Within cartilage repair tissue, global mean values showed no difference, with 55.9 +/- 4.9 ms for T2 and 16.2 +/- 6.3 ms for T2*. However, zonal assessment showed only a slight and not significant increase from deep to superficial cartilage (T2: P = 0.174; T2*: P = 0.150). CONCLUSION: In vivo T1 dGEMRIC assessment in healthy cartilage, and T2 and T2* mapping in healthy and reparative articular cartilage, seems to be possible at 7.0 T MRI. For T2 and T2*, zonal variation of articular cartilage could also be evaluated at 7.0 T. This zonal assessment of deep and superficial cartilage aspects shows promising results for the differentiation of healthy and affected articular cartilage. In future studies, optimized protocol selection, and sophisticated coil technology, together with increased signal at ultra-high-field MRI, may lead to advanced biochemical cartilage imaging.

T2 mapping in the knee after microfracture at 3.0 T: correlation of global T2 values and clinical outcome - preliminary results

OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to correlate global T2 values of microfracture repair tissue (RT) with clinical outcome in the knee joint. METHODS: We assessed 24 patients treated with microfracture in the knee joint. Magnetic resonance (MR) examinations were performed on a 3T MR unit, T2 relaxation times were obtained with a multi-echo spin-echo technique. T2 maps were obtained using a pixel wise, mono-exponential non-negative least squares fit analysis. Slices covering the cartilage RT were selected and region of interest analysis was done. An individual T2 index was calculated with global mean T2 of the RT and global mean T2 of normal, hyaline cartilage. The Lysholm score and the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) knee evaluation forms were used for the assessment of clinical outcome. Bivariate correlation analysis and a paired, two tailed t test were used for statistics. RESULTS: Global T2 values of the RT [mean 49.8ms, standards deviation (SD) 7.5] differed significantly (P<0.001) from global T2 values of normal, hyaline cartilage (mean 58.5ms, SD 7.0). The T2 index ranged from 61.3 to 101.5. We found the T2 index to correlate with outcome of the Lysholm score (r(s)=0.641, P<0.001) and the IKDC subjective knee evaluation form (r(s)=0.549, P=0.005), whereas there was no correlation with the IKDC knee form (r(s)=-0.284, P=0.179). CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that T2 mapping is sensitive to assess RT function and provides additional information to morphologic MRI in the monitoring of microfracture.

ANOVA kernels and RKHS of zero mean functions for model-based sensitivity analysis

Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (H,〈.,.〉)(H,〈.,.〉) of real-valued functions and a suitable measure μμ over the source space D⊂RD⊂R, we decompose HH as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for μμ and its orthogonal in HH. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA representation of the best predictor can be elegantly derived, either in an interpolation or regularization framework. The proposed kernels appear to be particularly convenient for analyzing the effect of each (group of) variable(s) and computing sensitivity indices without recursivity.

Finite element analysis for prediction of bone strength

Article preview View full access options BoneKEy Reports | Review Print Email Share/bookmark Finite element analysis for prediction of bone strength Philippe K Zysset, Enrico Dall'Ara, Peter Varga & Dieter H Pahr Affiliations Corresponding author BoneKEy Reports (2013) 2, Article number: 386 (2013) doi:10.1038/bonekey.2013.120 Received 03 January 2013 Accepted 25 June 2013 Published online 07 August 2013 Article tools Citation Reprints Rights & permissions Abstract Abstract• References• Author information Finite element (FE) analysis has been applied for the past 40 years to simulate the mechanical behavior of bone. Although several validation studies have been performed on specific anatomical sites and load cases, this study aims to review the predictability of human bone strength at the three major osteoporotic fracture sites quantified in recently completed in vitro studies at our former institute. Specifically, the performance of FE analysis based on clinical computer tomography (QCT) is compared with the ones of the current densitometric standards, bone mineral content, bone mineral density (BMD) and areal BMD (aBMD). Clinical fractures were produced in monotonic axial compression of the distal radii, vertebral sections and in side loading of the proximal femora. QCT-based FE models of the three bones were developed to simulate as closely as possible the boundary conditions of each experiment. For all sites, the FE methodology exhibited the lowest errors and the highest correlations in predicting the experimental bone strength. Likely due to the improved CT image resolution, the quality of the FE prediction in the peripheral skeleton using high-resolution peripheral CT was superior to that in the axial skeleton with whole-body QCT. Because of its projective and scalar nature, the performance of aBMD in predicting bone strength depended on loading mode and was significantly inferior to FE in axial compression of radial or vertebral sections but not significantly inferior to FE in side loading of the femur. Considering the cumulated evidence from the published validation studies, it is concluded that FE models provide the most reliable surrogates of bone strength at any of the three fracture sites.

Prognostic implications of the seventh edition of the international union against cancer classification for patients with gastric cancer: the Western experience of patients treated in a single-center European institution

PURPOSE Validity of the seventh edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer (AJCC/UICC) staging systems for gastric cancer has been evaluated in several studies, mostly in Asian patient populations. Only few data are available on the prognostic implications of the new classification system on a Western population. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic ability based on a German patient cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS Data from a single-center cohort of 1,767 consecutive patients surgically treated for gastric cancer were classified according to the seventh edition and were compared using the previous TNM/UICC classification. Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed for all TNM stages and UICC stages in a comparative manner. Additional survival receiver operating characteristic analyses and bootstrap-based goodness-of-fit comparisons via Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were performed to assess and compare prognostic performance of the competing classification systems. RESULTS We identified the UICC pT/pN stages according to the seventh edition of the AJCC/UICC guidelines as well as resection status, age, Lauren histotype, lymph-node ratio, and tumor grade as independent prognostic factors in gastric cancer, which is consistent with data from previous Asian studies. Overall survival rates according to the new edition were significantly different for each individual's pT, pN, and UICC stage. However, BIC analysis revealed that, owing to higher complexity, the new staging system might not significantly alter predictability for overall survival compared with the old system within the analyzed cohort from a statistical point of view. CONCLUSION The seventh edition of the AJCC/UICC classification was found to be valid with distinctive prognosis for each stage. However, the AJCC/UICC classification has become more complex without improving predictability for overall survival in a Western population. Therefore, simplification with better predictability of overall survival of patients with gastric cancer should be considered when revising the seventh edition.

A versatile gas interface for routine radiocarbon analysis with a gas ion source

In 2010 more than 600 radiocarbon samples were measured with the gas ion source at the MIni CArbon DAting System (MICADAS) at ETH Zurich and the number of measurements is rising quickly. While most samples contain less than 50 mu g C at present, the gas ion source is attractive as well for larger samples because the time-consuming graphitization is omitted. Additionally, modern samples are now measured down to 5 per-mill counting statistics in less than 30 min with the recently improved gas ion source. In the versatile gas handling system, a stepping-motor-driven syringe presses a mixture of helium and sample CO2 into the gas ion source, allowing continuous and stable measurements of different kinds of samples. CO2 can be provided in four different ways to the versatile gas interface. As a primary method. CO2 is delivered in glass or quartz ampoules. In this case, the CO2 is released in an automated ampoule cracker with 8 positions for individual samples. Secondly, OX-1 and blank gas in helium can be provided to the syringe by directly connecting gas bottles to the gas interface at the stage of the cracker. Thirdly, solid samples can be combusted in an elemental analyzer or in a thermo-optical OC/EC aerosol analyzer where the produced CO2 is transferred to the syringe via a zeolite trap for gas concentration. As a fourth method, CO2 is released from carbonates with phosphoric acid in septum-sealed vials and loaded onto the same trap used for the elemental analyzer. All four methods allow complete automation of the measurement, even though minor user input is presently still required. Details on the setup, versatility and applications of the gas handling system are given. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How fit turns into misfit and back: institutional transformations of pastoral commons in African floodplains

We enlarge the notion of institutional fit using theoretical approaches from New Institutionalism, including rational choice and strategic action, political ecology and constructivist approaches. These approaches are combined with ecological approaches (system and evolutionary ecology) focusing on feedback loops and change. We offer results drawn from a comparison of fit and misfit cases of institutional change in pastoral commons in four African floodplain contexts (Zambia, Cameroon, Tanzania (two cases). Cases of precolonial fit and misfit in the postcolonial past, as well as a case of institutional fit in the postcolonial phase, highlight important features, specifically, flexible institutions, leadership, and mutual economic benefit under specific relations of bargaining power of actors. We argue that only by combining otherwise conflicting approaches can we come to understand why institutional fit develops into misfit and back again. Key Words: African floodplains; governance; institutional change; institutional fit; New Institutionalism; pastoral commons

The scholarly networks of Albrecht von Haller and the Economic Society of Bern – a multi-level network analysis

Here, by the example of the transfer of cultivated plants in the context of the correspondence networks of Albrecht von Haller and the Economic Society, a multi-level network analysis is suggested. By a multi-level procedure, the chronological dynamics, the social structure, the spatial distribution and the functional networking are analyzed one after the other. These four levels of network analysis do not compete with each other but are mutually supporting. This aims at a deeper understanding of how these networks contributed to an international transfer of knowledge in the 18th century.

Microsurgical and laser ablation analysis of leaf positioning and dorsoventral patterning in tomato

Leaves are arranged according to regular patterns, a phenomenon referred to as phyllotaxis. Important determinants of phyllotaxis are the divergence angle between successive leaves, and the size of the leaves relative to the shoot axis. Young leaf primordia are thought to provide positional information to the meristem, thereby influencing the positioning of new primordia and hence the divergence angle. On the contrary, the meristem signals to the primordia to establish their dorsoventral polarity, which is a prerequisite for the formation of a leaf blade. These concepts originate from classical microsurgical studies carried out between the 1920s and the 1970s. Even though these techniques have been abandoned in favor of genetic analysis, the resulting insights remain a cornerstone of plant developmental biology. Here, we employ new microsurgical techniques to reassess and extend the classical studies on phyllotaxis and leaf polarity. Previous experiments have indicated that the isolation of an incipient primordium by a tangential incision caused a change of divergence angle between the two subsequent primordia, indicating that pre-existing primordia influence further phyllotaxis. Here.. we repeat these experiments and compare them with the results of laser ablation of incipient primordia. Furthermore. we explore to what extent the different pre-existing primordia influence the size and position of new organs. and hence phyllotaxis. We propose that the two youngest primordia (P-1 and P-2) are sufficient for the approximate positioning of the incipient primordium (I-1), and therefore for the perpetuation of the generative spiral, whereas the direct contact neighbours of I-1 (P-2 and P-3) control its delimitation and hence its exact size and position. Finally. we report L I specific cell ablation experiments suggesting that the meristem L-1 layer is essential for the dorsoventral patterning of leaf primordia.

Quantitative morphometric analysis of lakes using GIS: rectangularity R , ellipticity E , orientation O , and the rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi

Quantitative measures of polygon shapes and orientation are important elements of geospatial analysis. These kinds of measures are particularly valuable in the case of lakes, where shape and orientation patterns can help identifying the geomorphological agents behind lake formation and evolution. However, the lack of built-in tools in commercial geographic information system (GIS) software packages designed for this kind of analysis has meant that many researchers often must rely on tools and workarounds that are not always accurate. Here, an easy-to-use method to measure rectangularity R, ellipticity E, and orientation O is developed. In addition, a new rectangularity vs. ellipticity index, REi, is defined. Following a step-by-step process, it is shown how these measures and index can be easily calculated using a combination of GIS built-in functions. The identification of shapes and estimation of orientations performed by this method is applied to the case study of the geometric and oriented lakes of the Llanos de Moxos, in the Bolivian Amazon, where shape and orientation have been the two most important elements studied to infer possible formation mechanisms. It is shown that, thanks to these new indexes, shape and orientation patterns are unveiled, which would have been hard to identify otherwise.

14C Analysis and Sample Preparation at the New Bern Laboratory for the Analysis of Radiocarbon with AMS (LARA)

The University of Bern has set up the new Laboratory for the Analysis of Radiocarbon with AMS (LARA) equipped with an accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) MICADAS (MIni CArbon Dating System) to continue its long history of 14C analysis based on conventional counting. The new laboratory is designated to provide routine 14C dating for archaeology, climate research, and other disciplines at the University of Bern and to develop new analytical systems coupled to the gas ion source for 14C analysis of specific compounds or compound classes with specific physical properties. Measurements of reference standards and wood samples dated by dendrochronology demonstrate the quality of the 14C analyses performed at the new laboratory.

Proteomic analysis of porcine bone-conditioned medium.

PURPOSE Autografts are considered to support bone regeneration. Paracrine factors released from cortical bone might contribute to the overall process of graft consolidation. The aim of this study was to characterize the paracrine factors by means of proteomic analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS Bone-conditioned medium (BCM) was prepared from fresh bone chips of porcine mandibles and subjected to proteomic analysis. Proteins were categorized and clustered using the bioinformatic tools UNIPROT and PANTHER, respectively. RESULTS Proteomic analysis showed that BCM contains more than 150 proteins, of which 43 were categorized into "secreted" and "extracellular matrix." Growth factors that are not only detectable in BCM, but potentially also target cellular processes involved in bone regeneration, eg, pleiotrophin, galectin-1, transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β)-induced gene (TGFBI), lactotransferrin, insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-binding protein 5, latency-associated peptide forming a complex with TGF-β1, and TGF-β2, were discovered. CONCLUSION The present results demonstrate that cortical bone chips release a large spectrum of proteins with the possibility of modulating cellular aspects of bone regeneration. The data provide the basis for future studies to understand how these paracrine factors may contribute to the complex process of graft consolidation.