A new methodological protocol for the use of dendrogeomorphological data in flood risk analysis

Dendrogeomorphology uses information sources recorded in the roots, trunks and branches of trees and bushes located in the fluvial system to complement (or sometimes even replace) systematic and palaeohydrological records of past floods. The application of dendrogeomorphic data sources and methods to palaeoflood analysis over nearly 40 years has allowed improvements to be made in frequency and magnitude estimations of past floods. Nevertheless, research carried out so far has shown that the dendrogeomorphic indicators traditionally used (mainly scar evidence), and their use to infer frequency and magnitude, have been restricted to a small, limited set of applications. New possibilities with enormous potential remain unexplored. New insights in future research of palaeoflood frequency and magnitude using dendrogeomorphic data sources should: (1) test the application of isotopic indicators (16O/18O ratio) to discover the meteorological origin of past floods; (2) use different dendrogeomorphic indicators to estimate peak flows with 2D (and 3D) hydraulic models and study how they relate to other palaeostage indicators; (3) investigate improved calibration of 2D hydraulic model parameters (roughness); and (4) apply statistics-based cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. This paper presents an overview of these innovative methodologies, with a focus on their capabilities and limitations in the reconstruction of recent floods and palaeofloods.

Long-term outcomes of biodegradable versus durable polymer drug-eluting stents in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from three randomised trials

Aims: Arterial plaque rupture and thrombus characterise ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and may aggravate delayed arterial healing following durable polymer drug-eluting stent (DP-DES) implantation. Biodegradable polymer (BP) may improve biocompatibility. We compared long-term outcomes in STEMI patients receiving BP-DES vs. durable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents (DP-SES). Methods and results: We pooled individual patient-level data from three randomised clinical trials (ISAR-TEST-3, ISAR-TEST-4 and LEADERS) comparing outcomes from BP-DES with DP-SES at four years. The primary endpoint (MACE) comprised cardiac death, MI, or target lesion revascularisation (TLR). Secondary endpoints were TLR, cardiac death or MI, and definite or probable stent thrombosis. Of 497 patients with STEMI, 291 received BP-DES and 206 DP-SES. At four years, MACE was significantly reduced following treatment with BP-DES (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59, 95% CI: 0.39-0.90; p=0.01) driven by reduced TLR (HR 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30-0.98; p=0.04). Trends towards reduction were seen for cardiac death or MI (HR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.37-1.05; p=0.07) and definite or probable stent thrombosis (3.6% vs. 7.1%; HR 0.49, 95% CI: 0.22-1.11; p=0.09). Conclusions: In STEMI, BP-DES demonstrated superior clinical outcomes to DP-SES at four years. Trends towards reduced cardiac death or myocardial infarction and reduced stent thrombosis require corroboration in specifically powered trials.

Towards a data-driven analysis of hadronic light-by-light scattering

The hadronic light-by-light contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon was recently analyzed in the framework of dispersion theory, providing a systematic formalism where all input quantities are expressed in terms of on-shell form factors and scattering amplitudes that are in principle accessible in experiment. We briefly review the main ideas behind this framework and discuss the various experimental ingredients needed for the evaluation of one- and two-pion intermediate states. In particular, we identify processes that in the absence of data for doubly-virtual pion–photon interactions can help constrain parameters in the dispersive reconstruction of the relevant input quantities, the pion transition form factor and the helicity partial waves for γ⁎γ⁎→ππ.

Differences in coronary risk factors, procedural characteristics, mortality and stent thrombosis between two all-comers percutaneous coronary intervention registries from Europe and Japan: a patient-level data analysis of the Bern-Rotterdam and j-Cypher registries

Aims: The reported rate of stent thrombosis (ST) after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation varies among registries. To investigate differences in baseline characteristics and clinical outcome in European and Japanese all-comers registries, we performed a pooled analysis of patient-level data. Methods and results: The j-Cypher registry (JC) is a multicentre observational study conducted in Japan, including 12,824 patients undergoing SES implantation. From the Bern-Rotterdam registry (BR) enrolled at two academic hospitals in Switzerland and the Netherlands, 3,823 patients with SES were included in the current analysis. Patients in BR were younger, more frequently smokers and presented more frequently with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI). Conversely, JC patients more frequently had diabetes and hypertension. At five years, the definite ST rate was significantly lower in JC than BR (JC 1.6% vs. BR 3.3%, p<0.001), while the unadjusted mortality tended to be lower in BR than in JC (BR 13.2% vs. JC 14.4%, log-rank p=0.052). After adjustment, the j-Cypher registry was associated with a significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.49-0.64) as well as definite stent thrombosis (HR 0.46, 95% CI: 0.35-0.61). Conclusions: The baseline characteristics of the two large registries were different. After statistical adjustment, JC was associated with lower mortality and ST.

Fine-scale population structure analysis of seven local Swiss sheep breeds using genome-wide SNP data

As part of the global sheep Hapmap project, 24 individuals from each of seven indigenous Swiss sheep breeds (Bundner Oberländer sheep (BOS), Engadine Red sheep (ERS), Swiss Black-Brown Mountain sheep (SBS), Swiss Mirror sheep (SMS), Swiss White Alpine (SWA) sheep, Valais Blacknose sheep (VBS) and Valais Red sheep (VRS)), were genotyped using Illumina’s Ovine SNP50 BeadChip. In total, 167 animals were subjected to a detailed analysis for genetic diversity using 45 193 informative single nucleotide polymorphisms. The results of the phylogenetic analyses supported the known proximity between populations such as VBS and VRS or SMS and SWA. Average genomic relatedness within a breed was found to be 12 percent (BOS), 5 percent (ERS), 9 percent (SBS), 10 percent (SMS), 9 percent (SWA), 12 percent (VBS) and 20 percent (VRS). Furthermore, genomic relationships between breeds were found for single individuals from SWA and SMS, VRS and VBS as well as VRS and BOS. In addition, seven out of 40 indicated parent–offspring pairs could not be confirmed. These results were further supported by results from the genome-wide population cluster analysis. This study provides a better understanding of fine-scale population structures within and between Swiss sheep breeds. This relevant information will help to increase the conservation activities of the local Swiss sheep breeds.

Volumetric analysis of lung nodules in computed tomography (CT): comparison of two different segmentation algorithm softwares and two different reconstruction filters on automated volume calculation.

BACKGROUND A precise detection of volume change allows for better estimating the biological behavior of the lung nodules. Postprocessing tools with automated detection, segmentation, and volumetric analysis of lung nodules may expedite radiological processes and give additional confidence to the radiologists. PURPOSE To compare two different postprocessing software algorithms (LMS Lung, Median Technologies; LungCARE®, Siemens) in CT volumetric measurement and to analyze the effect of soft (B30) and hard reconstruction filter (B70) on automated volume measurement. MATERIAL AND METHODS Between January 2010 and April 2010, 45 patients with a total of 113 pulmonary nodules were included. The CT exam was performed on a 64-row multidetector CT scanner (Somatom Sensation, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany) with the following parameters: collimation, 24x1.2 mm; pitch, 1.15; voltage, 120 kVp; reference tube current-time, 100 mAs. Automated volumetric measurement of each lung nodule was performed with the two different postprocessing algorithms based on two reconstruction filters (B30 and B70). The average relative volume measurement difference (VME%) and the limits of agreement between two methods were used for comparison. RESULTS At soft reconstruction filters the LMS system produced mean nodule volumes that were 34.1% (P < 0.0001) larger than those by LungCARE® system. The VME% was 42.2% with a limit of agreement between -53.9% and 138.4%.The volume measurement with soft filters (B30) was significantly larger than with hard filters (B70); 11.2% for LMS and 1.6% for LungCARE®, respectively (both with P < 0.05). LMS measured greater volumes with both filters, 13.6% for soft and 3.8% for hard filters, respectively (P < 0.01 and P > 0.05). CONCLUSION There is a substantial inter-software (LMS/LungCARE®) as well as intra-software variability (B30/B70) in lung nodule volume measurement; therefore, it is mandatory to use the same equipment with the same reconstruction filter for the follow-up of lung nodule volume.

No sports – no mental health? Analysis of longitudinal effects in SHP data.

Results from the Zurich study have shown lasting associations between sport practice and mental health. The effects are pronounced in people with pre-exising mental health problems. This analysis aims to replicate these results with the large Swiss Household Panel data set and to provide more differentiated results. The analysis covered the interviews 1999-2003 and included 3891 stayers, i.e., participants who were interviewed in all years. The outcome variables are depression / blues / anxiety, weakness / weariness, sleeping problems, energy / optimism. Confounding variables include sex, age, education level, citizenship. The analyses were carried out with mixed models (depression, optimism) and GEE models (weakness, sleep). About 60% of the SHP participants practise weekly or daily an individual or a team sport. A similar proportion enjoys a frequent physical activity (for half an hour minimum) which makes oneself slightly breathless. There are slight age-specific differences but also noteworthy regional differences. Practice of sport is clearly interrelated with self-reported depressive symptoms, optimism and weakness. This applies even though some relevant confounders – sex, educational level and citizenship – were introduced into the model. However, no relevant interaction effects with time could be shown. Moreover, direct interrelations commonly led to better fits than models with lagged variables, thus indicating that delayed effects of sport practice on the self-reported psychological complaints are less important. Model variants resulted for specific subgroups, for example, participants with a high vs. low initial activity level. Lack of sport practice is an interesting marker for serious psychological symptoms and mental disorders. The background of this association may differ in different subgroups, and should stimulate further investigations in this area.

Economic benefits and costs of Sustainable Land Management Technologies: An analysis of WOCAT's global data

Perceived profitability is a key factor in explaining farmers' decision to adopt or not adopt sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. Despite this importance, relatively little is known about the economics of SLM. This paper contributes to the literature by analysing data on costs and perceived cost/benefit ratios of SLM technologies. Data are taken from the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies technology database and cover 363 case studies conducted in a variety of countries between 1990 and 2012. Based on an in-depth descriptive analysis, we determine what costs accrue to local stakeholders and assess perceived short-term and long-term cost/benefit ratios. Our results show that a large majority of the technologies in our sample are perceived as being profitable: 73% were perceived to have a positive or at least neutral cost/benefit ratio in the short term, while 97% were perceived to have a positive or very positive cost/benefit ratio in the long term. An additional empirical analysis confirms that economic factors are key determinants of land users' decisions to adopt or not adopt SLM technologies. We conclude that a wide range of existing SLM practices generate considerable benefits not only for land users, but for other stakeholders as well. High initial investment costs associated with some practices may, however, constitute a barrier to their adoption; short-term support for land users can help to promote these practices where appropriate.

Temporal change in prevalence and complications of uveitis associated with juvenile idiopathic arthritis:data from a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective nationwide study

OBJECTIVES To analyse the nationwide prevalence of uveitis in JIA and its complications over a whole decade. METHODS We conducted a prospective, observational and cross-sectional study including all JIA patients from a National Paediatric Rheumatological Database (NPRD) with a uveitis add-on module in Germany (2002-2013). Temporal changes in uveitis prevalence, related secondary complications and anti-inflammatory medication were evaluated. RESULTS A total of 60 centres including 18,555 JIA patients (mean 3,863 patients/year, SD=837) were documented in the NPRD between 2002 and 2013. The mean age of the patients was 11.4±4.6 years, their mean disease duration 4.4±3.7 years. Among them, 66.9% were female and 51.7% ANA positive. Patients' mean age at arthritis onset was 6.9±4.5 years. Treatment rates with synthetic and biological DMARDs increased during the observation period (sDMARD: 39.8% to 47.2%, bDMARD: 3.3% to 21.8%). Uveitis prevalence decreased significantly from 2002 to 2013 (13.0% to 11.6%, OR = 0.98, p=0.015). The prevalence of secondary uveitis complications also decreased significantly between 2002 and 2013 (33.6% to 23.9%, OR=0.94, p<0.001). Among the complications, the most common ones were posterior synechiae, cataract and band keratopathy. A significant increase in achieving uveitis inactivity was observed at 30.6% in 2002 and 65.3% in 2013 (OR=1.15, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Uveitis prevalence and complications significantly decreased between 2002 and 2013. This may be associated with a more frequent use of DMARDs.

Clinical relevance of DPYD variants c.1679T>G, c.1236G>A/HapB3, and c.1601G>A as predictors of severe fluoropyrimidine-associated toxicity: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND The best-known cause of intolerance to fluoropyrimidines is dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) deficiency, which can result from deleterious polymorphisms in the gene encoding DPD (DPYD), including DPYD*2A and c.2846A>T. Three other variants-DPYD c.1679T>G, c.1236G>A/HapB3, and c.1601G>A-have been associated with DPD deficiency, but no definitive evidence for the clinical validity of these variants is available. The primary objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the clinical validity of c.1679T>G, c.1236G>A/HapB3, and c.1601G>A as predictors of severe fluoropyrimidine-associated toxicity. METHODS We did a systematic review of the literature published before Dec 17, 2014, to identify cohort studies investigating associations between DPYD c.1679T>G, c.1236G>A/HapB3, and c.1601G>A and severe (grade ≥3) fluoropyrimidine-associated toxicity in patients treated with fluoropyrimidines (fluorouracil, capecitabine, or tegafur-uracil as single agents, in combination with other anticancer drugs, or with radiotherapy). Individual patient data were retrieved and analysed in a multivariable analysis to obtain an adjusted relative risk (RR). Effect estimates were pooled by use of a random-effects meta-analysis. The threshold for significance was set at a p value of less than 0·0167 (Bonferroni correction). FINDINGS 7365 patients from eight studies were included in the meta-analysis. DPYD c.1679T>G was significantly associated with fluoropyrimidine-associated toxicity (adjusted RR 4·40, 95% CI 2·08-9·30, p<0·0001), as was c.1236G>A/HapB3 (1·59, 1·29-1·97, p<0·0001). The association between c.1601G>A and fluoropyrimidine-associated toxicity was not significant (adjusted RR 1·52, 95% CI 0·86-2·70, p=0·15). Analysis of individual types of toxicity showed consistent associations of c.1679T>G and c.1236G>A/HapB3 with gastrointestinal toxicity (adjusted RR 5·72, 95% CI 1·40-23·33, p=0·015; and 2·04, 1·49-2·78, p<0·0001, respectively) and haematological toxicity (adjusted RR 9·76, 95% CI 3·03-31·48, p=0·00014; and 2·07, 1·17-3·68, p=0·013, respectively), but not with hand-foot syndrome. DPYD*2A and c.2846A>T were also significantly associated with severe fluoropyrimidine-associated toxicity (adjusted RR 2·85, 95% CI 1·75-4·62, p<0·0001; and 3·02, 2·22-4·10, p<0·0001, respectively). INTERPRETATION DPYD variants c.1679T>G and c.1236G>A/HapB3 are clinically relevant predictors of fluoropyrimidine-associated toxicity. Upfront screening for these variants, in addition to the established variants DPYD*2A and c.2846A>T, is recommended to improve the safety of patients with cancer treated with fluoropyrimidines. FUNDING None.