Taxon-specific δ13C analysis of chitinous invertebrate remains in sediments from Strandsjön, Sweden

Taxon-specific stable carbon isotope (δ13C) analysis of chitinous remains of invertebrates can provide valuable information about the carbon sources used by invertebrates living in specific habitats of lake ecosystems (for example, sediments, water column, or aquatic vegetation). This is complementary to δ13C of sedimentary organic matter (SOM), which provides an integrated signal of organic matter produced in a lake and its catchment, and of diagenetic processes within sediments. In a sediment record from Strandsjön (Sweden) covering the past circa 140 years, we analyzed SOM geochemistry (δ13C, C:Natomic, organic carbon content) and δ13C of chitinous invertebrate remains in order to examine whether taxon-specific δ13C records could be developed for different invertebrate groups and whether these analyses provide insights into past changes of organic carbon sources for lacustrine invertebrates available in benthic and planktonic compartments of the lake. Invertebrate taxa included benthic chironomids (Chironomus, Chironomini excluding Chironomus, Tanytarsini, and Tanypodinae), filter-feeders on suspended particulate organic matter (Daphnia, Plumatella and Cristatella mucedo), and Rhabdocoela. δ13C of chironomid remains indicated periodic availability of 13C-depleted carbon sources in the benthic environment of the lake as δ13C values of the different chironomid taxa fluctuated simultaneously between -34.7 and -30.5‰ (VPDB). Daphnia and Bryozoa showed parallel changes in their δ13C values which did not coincide with variations in δ13C of chironomids, though, and a 2-3‰ decrease since circa AD 1960. The decrease in δ13C of Daphnia and Bryozoa could indicate a decrease in phytoplankton δ13C as a result of lower lake productivity, which is in accordance with historical information about the lake that suggests a shift to less eutrophic conditions after AD 1960. In contrast, Rhabdocoela cocoons were characterized by relatively high δ13C values (-30.4 to -28.2‰) that did not show a strong temporal trend, which could be related to the predatory feeding mode and wide prey spectrum of this organism group. The taxon-specific δ13C analyses of invertebrate remains indicated that different carbon sources were available for the benthic chironomid larvae than for the filter-feeding Daphnia and bryozoans. Our results therefore demonstrate that taxon-specific analysis of δ13C of organic invertebrate remains can provide complementary information to measurements on bulk SOM and that δ13C of invertebrate remains may allow the reconstruction of past changes in carbon sources and their δ13C in different habitats of lake ecosystems.

The dating of dipterocarp tree rings: establishing a record of carbon cycling and climatic change in the tropics

In a first step to obtain a proxy record of past climatic events (including the El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation) in the normally aseasonal tropical environment of Sabah, a radial segment from a recently fallen dipterocarp (Shorea Superba) was radiocarbon dated and subjected to carbon isotope analysis. The high-precision radiocarbon results fell into the ambiguous modern plateau where several calibrated dates can exist for each sample. Dating was achieved by wiggle matching using a Bayesian approach to calibration. Using the defined growth characteristics of Shorea superba, probability density distributions were calculated and improbable dates rejected. It was found that the tree most likely started growing around AD 1660-1685. A total of 173 apparent growth increments were measured and, therefore, it could be determined that the tree formed one ring approximately every two years. Stable carbon isotope values were obtained from resin-extracted wholewood from each ring. Carbon cycling is evident in the `juvenile effect', resulting from the assimilation of respired carbon dioxide and lower light levels below the canopy, and in the `anthropogenic effect' caused by increased industrial activity in the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This study demonstrates that palaeoenvironmental information can be obtained from trees growing in aseasonal environments, where climatic conditions prevent the formation of well-defined annual rings.

Improving accuracy and precision of ice core δD(CH4) analyses using methane pre-pyrolysis and hydrogen post-pyrolysis trapping and subsequent chromatographic separation

Firn and polar ice cores offer the only direct palaeoatmospheric archive. Analyses of past greenhouse gas concentrations and their isotopic compositions in air bubbles in the ice can help to constrain changes in global biogeochemical cycles in the past. For the analysis of the hydrogen isotopic composition of methane (δD(CH4) or δ2H(CH4)) 0.5 to 1.5 kg of ice was hitherto used. Here we present a method to improve precision and reduce the sample amount for δD(CH4) measurements in (ice core) air. Pre-concentrated methane is focused in front of a high temperature oven (pre-pyrolysis trapping), and molecular hydrogen formed by pyrolysis is trapped afterwards (post-pyrolysis trapping), both on a carbon-PLOT capillary at −196 °C. Argon, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, unpyrolysed methane and krypton are trapped together with H2 and must be separated using a second short, cooled chromatographic column to ensure accurate results. Pre- and post-pyrolysis trapping largely removes the isotopic fractionation induced during chromatographic separation and results in a narrow peak in the mass spectrometer. Air standards can be measured with a precision better than 1‰. For polar ice samples from glacial periods, we estimate a precision of 2.3‰ for 350 g of ice (or roughly 30 mL – at standard temperature and pressure (STP) – of air) with 350 ppb of methane. This corresponds to recent tropospheric air samples (about 1900 ppb CH4) of about 6 mL (STP) or about 500 pmol of pure CH4.

A 170 year spring phenology index of plants in eastern China

Extending phenological records into the past is essential for the understanding of past ecological change and evaluating the effects of climate change on ecosystems. A growing body of historical phenological information is now available for Europe, North America, and Asia. In East Asia, long-term phenological series are still relatively scarce. This study extracted plant phenological observations from old diaries in the period 1834–1962. A spring phenology index (SPI) for the modern period (1963–2009) was defined as the mean flowering time of three shrubs (first flowering of Amygdalus davidiana and Cercis chinensis, 50% of full flowering of Paeonia suffruticosa) according to the data availability. Applying calibrated transfer functions from the modern period to the historical data, we reconstructed a continuous SPI time series across eastern China from 1834 to 2009. In the recent 30 years, the SPI is 2.1–6.3 days earlier than during any other consecutive 30 year period before 1970. A moving linear trend analysis shows that the advancing trend of SPI over the past three decades reaches upward of 4.1 d/decade, which exceeds all previously observed trends in the past 30 year period. In addition, the SPI series correlates significantly with spring (February to April) temperatures in the study area, with an increase in spring temperature of 1°C inducing an earlier SPI by 3.1 days. These shifts of SPI provide important information regarding regional vegetation-climate relationships, and they are helpful to assess long term of climate change impacts on biophysical systems and biodiversity.

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Peak Last Glacial weathering intensity on the North American continent recorded by the authigenic Hf isotope composition of North Atlantic deep-sea sediments

We have retrieved radiogenic hafnium (Hf) isotope compositions (ɛHf) from authigenic Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides of deep northwest Atlantic sediments deposited over the past 26 ka to investigate the oceanic evidence of changes in dissolved weathering inputs from NE America during the last deglaciation. The extraction of seawater-derived Hf isotopic compositions from Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides is not a standard procedure. Comparisons between the Al/Hf ratios and Hf isotopic compositions of the chemically extracted authigenic phase on the one hand, and those of the corresponding detrital fractions on the other, provide evidence that the composition of past seawater has been reliably obtained for most sampled depths with our leaching procedures. This is endorsed most strongly by data for a sediment core from 4250 m water depth at the deeper Blake Ridge, for which consistent replicates were produced throughout. The Hf isotopic composition of the most recent sample in this core also closely matches that of nearby present day central North Atlantic seawater. Comparison with previously published seawater Nd and Pb isotope compositions obtained on the same cores shows that both Hf and Pb were released incongruently during incipient chemical weathering, but responded differently to the deglacial retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Hafnium was released more congruently during peak glacial conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and changed to typical incongruent interglacial ɛHf signatures either during or shortly after the LGM. This indicates that some zircon-derived Hf was released to seawater during the LGM. Conversely, there is no clear evidence for an increase in the influence of weathering of Lu-rich mineral phases during deglaciation, possibly since relatively unradiogenic Hf contributions from feldspar weathering were superimposed. While the authigenic Pb isotope signal in the same marine sediment samples traced peak chemical weathering rates on continental North America during the transition to the Holocene a similar incongruent excursion is notably absent in the Hf isotope record. The early change towards more radiogenic ɛHf in relation to the LGM may provide direct evidence for the transition from a cold-based to a warm-based Laurentide Ice Sheet on the Atlantic sector of North America.

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of randomized trials: principles and pitfalls

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses allow for a more transparent and objective appraisal of the evidence. They may decrease the number of false-negative results and prevent delays in the introduction of effective interventions into clinical practice. However, as for any other tool, their misuse can result in severely misleading results. In this article, we discuss the main steps that should be taken when conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses, namely the preparation of a review protocol, identification of eligible trials, and data extraction, pooling of treatment effects across trials, investigation of potential reasons for differences in treatment effects across trials, and complete reporting of the review methods and findings. We also discuss common pitfalls that should be avoided, including the use of quality assessment tools to derive summary quality scores, pooling of data across trials as if they belonged to a single large trial, and inappropriate uses of meta-regression that could result in misleading estimates of treatment effects because of regression to the mean or the ecological fallacy. If conducted and reported properly, systematic reviews and meta-analyses will increase our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the available evidence, which may eventually facilitate clinical decision making.

A compilation of Western European terrestrial records 60–8 ka BP: towards an understanding of latitudinal climatic gradients

Terrestrial records of past climatic conditions, such as lake sediments and speleothems, provide data of great importance for understanding environmental changes. However, unlike marine and ice core records, terrestrial palaeodata are often not available in databases or in a format that is easily accessible to the non-specialist. As a consequence, many excellent terrestrial records are unknown to the broader palaeoclimate community and are not included in compilations, comparisons, or modelling exercises. Here we present a compilation of Western European terrestrial palaeo-records covering, entirely or partially, the 60–8-ka INTIMATE time period. The compilation contains 56 natural archives, including lake records, speleothems, ice cores, and terrestrial proxies in marine records. The compilation is limited to include records of high temporal resolution and/or records that provide climate proxies or quantitative reconstructions of environmental parameters, such as temperature or precipitation, and that are of relevance and interest to a broader community. We briefly review the different types of terrestrial archives, their respective proxies, their interpretation and their application for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. We also discuss the importance of independent chronologies and the issue of record synchronization. The aim of this exercise is to provide the wider palaeo-community with a consistent compilation of high-quality terrestrial records, to facilitate model-data comparisons, and to identify key areas of interest for future investigations. We use the compilation to investigate Western European latitudinal climate gradients during the deglacial period and, despite of poorly constrained chronologies for the older records, we summarize the main results obtained from NW and SW European terrestrial records before the LGM.

New ruralities – old gender dynamics?: A reflection on high-value crop agriculture in the light of the feminisation debates

While a remarkable continuity in smallholder agricultural production has been identified, the shift from subsistence orientation towards more wage dependence appears in a different light when analysed under a gender perspective. "Feminisation" has been a catchphrase to characterise some of these processes; however, the debate has been subject to overgeneralisation, and can only inadequately grasp the gender dynamics in what has been referred to as "new ruralities". Illustrated for high-value crop production as an expression of agricultural transition in the Global South, this contribution offers a critical account of the feminisation thesis. Instead of discarding the notion of feminisation, it advocates a reassessment of its potential as a comprehensive framework against which empirical findings can be reflected. While conventional uses of the feminisation thesis have, in their great majority, come up with the conclusion that for women it can always only get worse, I propose a perspective which reveals gains and risks and how they are shared between men and women as they engage in new agricultural labour markets. This perspective rests on a methodology for case-based, comparative studies developed in this paper as a contribution for assessing the nature of agricultural transition and to investigate the qualitative change associated with new ruralities. A distinctive appreciation of the substance of agricultural change for different members of the rural society – namely men and women, but also different men, and different women – is the premise for overcoming barriers to shared development, and for framing effective governance in the context of global development.

The influence of the valence of events on the intention superiority effect over the life-course

According to the intention superiority effect, people remember more future intentions than past events. Moreover, several studies have shown a facilitation of retrieving positive compared to negative or neutral events. The aim of the present study was to investigate the influence of age on the intention superiority effect for positive, negative and neutral events. We asked a group of young and a group of older adults to report their future intentions and their memories of past events from a specific time-window (i.e., day, week or year). Additionally, we prompted them to rate each intention/memory as positive, negative or neutral. The results showed more positive than negative or neutral future and past events in both age-groups and more negative events of young adults compared with reported negative events of older adults. Critically, there was an intention superiority effect for positive events in both age-groups, but only in the “year” time-window. These results suggest that the retrieval of positive future events is facilitated, at least for a large time-perspective, and independent of age-effects.

Tracing the Evidence: The Use of Evaluation Results in Direct-Democratic Campaigns

Although research on direct-democratic campaigns in Switzerland has intensified in the last decade, detailed information on the use of evidence in campaigns is still lacking. Our research aims to contribute both to research on direct democracy and to research on evidence-based policy making, by analyzing how evaluation results are used in directdemocratic campaigns. In this conceptual paper, the formulation of our hypothesis is based on a model of evaluation influence that traces the different uses of evaluation results in the process of a direct-democratic campaign. We assume that the policy analytical capacity of individual members in parliament, government and administration in the (pre)-parliamentary process fosters the use of evidence in campaigns. In the course of the campaign, symbolic use of evaluation in the form of justification, persuasion or mobilization prevails. We assume that the media is an important player in making transparent how political actors use evidence to support their positions. Evidence itself often remains ambiguous and uncertain, and evaluations are influenced by the values of the evaluator. To be able to make the right decisions, therefore, citizens should learn about possible interpretations in argumentative processes. For us, the context of direct democracy in Switzerland provides the setting for such a discourse that, besides evidence, brings up different opinions, values and beliefs.

New LA-ICP-MS cryocell and calibration technique for sub-millimeter analysis of ice cores

Ice cores provide a robust reconstruction of past climate. However, development of timescales by annual-layer counting, essential to detailed climate reconstruction and interpretation, on ice cores collected at low-accumulation sites or in regions of compressed ice, is problematic due to closely spaced layers. Ice-core analysis by laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) provides sub-millimeter-scale sampling resolution (on the order of 100μm in this study) and the low detection limits (ng L–1) necessary to measure the chemical constituents preserved in ice cores. We present a newly developed cryocell that can hold a 1m long section of ice core, and an alternative strategy for calibration. Using ice-core samples from central Greenland, we demonstrate the repeatability of multiple ablation passes, highlight the improved sampling resolution, verify the calibration technique and identify annual layers in the chemical profile in a deep section of an ice core where annual layers have not previously been identified using chemistry. In addition, using sections of cores from the Swiss/Italian Alps we illustrate the relationship between Ca, Na and Fe and particle concentration and conductivity, and validate the LA-ICP-MS Ca profile through a direct comparison with continuous flow analysis results.

The effect of cumulating exposure to abacavir on the risk of cardiovascular disease events in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND Patients with HIV exposed to the antiretroviral drug abacavir may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is concern that this association arises because of a channelling bias. Even if exposure is a risk, it is not clear how that risk changes as exposure cumulates. METHODS We assess the effect of exposure to abacavir on the risk of CVD events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We use a new marginal structural Cox model to estimate the effect of abacavir as a flexible function of past exposures while accounting for risk factors that potentially lie on a causal pathway between exposure to abacavir and CVD. RESULTS 11,856 patients were followed for a median of 6.6 years; 365 patients had a CVD event (4.6 events per 1000 patient years). In a conventional Cox model, recent - but not cumulative - exposure to abacavir increased the risk of a CVD event. In the new marginal structural Cox model, continued exposure to abacavir during the past four years increased the risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.43-2.98). The estimated function for the effect of past exposures suggests that exposure during the past 6 to 36 months caused the greatest increase in risk. CONCLUSIONS Abacavir increases the risk of a CVD event: the effect of exposure is not immediate, rather the risk increases as exposure cumulates over the past few years. This gradual increase in risk is not consistent with a rapidly acting mechanism, such as acute inflammation.

Conservation of threatened habitat types under future climate change – Lessons from plant-distribution models and current extinction trends in southern Germany

A higher risk of future range losses as a result of climate change is expected to be one of the main drivers of extinction trends in vascular plants occurring in habitat types of high conservation value. Nevertheless, the impact of the climate changes of the last 60 years on the current distribution and extinction patterns of plants is still largely unclear. We applied species distribution models to study the impact of environmental variables (climate, soil conditions, land cover, topography), on the current distribution of 18 vascular plant species characteristic of three threatened habitat types in southern Germany: (i) xero-thermophilous vegetation, (ii) mesophilous mountain grasslands (mountain hay meadows and matgrass communities), and (iii) wetland habitats (bogs, fens, and wet meadows). Climate and soil variables were the most important variables affecting plant distributions at a spatial level of 10 × 10 km. Extinction trends in our study area revealed that plant species which occur in wetland habitats faced higher extinction risks than those in xero-thermophilous vegetation, with the risk for species in mesophilous mountain grasslands being intermediary. For three plant species characteristic either of mesophilous mountain grasslands or wetland habitats we showed exemplarily that extinctions from 1950 to the present day have occurred at the edge of the species’ current climatic niche, indicating that climate change has likely been the main driver of extinction. This is largely consistent with current extinction trends reported in other studies. Our study indicates that the analysis of past extinctions is an appropriate means to assess the impact of climate change on species and that vulnerability to climate change is both species- and habitat-specific.

Dynamics of Traditional Ecological Knowledge, Local Use and Conservation of Native Trees and Shrubs in the Bolivian Andes

Native trees and shrubs are essential components of rural landscapes in the semi-arid inner-Andean valleys of Bolivia. They can be found as hedges and bushes in various agroecosystems such as terrace walls, slopes, field boundaries and fallow land. Their distribution and floristic composition are the result of dynamic spatial and temporal interactions between local farmers and the environment. Local uses of natural resources and biodiversity reflect the constantly evolving Andean culture, which can be generally characterised as an intertwining of the human, natural, and spiritual worlds. The aim of the present ethnobotanical study was to analyse the dynamics of traditional ecological knowledge, to ascertain local farmers’ perceptions and uses of native woody species in Andean communities and to associate the results with local conservation activities for the trees and shrubs concerned. Our case study was carried out within two communities of the Tunari National Park (Dept. Cochabamba) in Bolivia. For data collection, research methods from social science (semi-structured interviews, participative observation, participatory mapping) as well as vegetation surveys were combined. Local actors included women and men of all ages as well as families from different social categories and altitudinal levels of permanent residence. Our study indicates that, due to a multitude of socio-economic pressures (e.g. migration of young people) as well as changes in use of biodiversity (e.g. replacement of native by exotic introduced species), the traditional ecological knowledge base of native trees and shrubs and their respective uses has become diminished over time. In many cases it has led to a decline in people’s awareness of native species and as a consequence their practical, emotional and spiritual relationships with them have been lost. However, results also show that applied traditional ecological knowledge has led to local conservation strategies, which have succeeded in protecting those tree and shrub species which are most widely regarded for their multifunctional, constant and exclusive uses (e.g. Schinus molle, Prosopis laevigata, Baccharis dracunculifolia). The presentation will discuss the question if and how applied traditional ecological knowledge positively contributes to local initiatives of sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity in rural areas.