Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

An in vitro study on spontaneous myometrial contractility in the mare during estrus and diestrus

Uterine smooth muscle specimens were collected from euthanatized mares in estrus and diestrus. Longitudinal and circular specimens were mounted in organ baths and the signals transcribed to a Grass polygraph. After equilibration time and 2 g preload, their physiologic isometric contractility was recorded for a continuous 2.0 h. Area under the curve, frequency and time occupied by contractions were studied. Differences between cycle phases, between muscle layers, and over the recorded time periods were statistically evaluated using linear mixed-effect models. In the mare, physiologic contractility of the uterus decreased significantly over time for all variables evaluated (time as covariate on a continuous scale). For area under the curve, there was a significant effect of muscle layer (longitudinal > circular). For frequency, higher values were recorded in estrus for circular smooth muscle layer, whereas higher values were seen in longitudinal smooth muscle layers during diestrus. In longitudinal layer and in diestrus, more time was occupied by contractions than in circular layer, and in estrus. This study is describing physiologic myometrial motility in the organ bath depending on cycle phase.

A pain assessment scale for population-based studies: Development and validation of the Pain Module of the Standard Evaluation Questionnaire

The objectives of this study were to develop and validate a tool for assessing pain in population-based observational studies and to develop three subscales for back/neck, upper extremity and lower extremity pain. Based on a literature review, items were extracted from validated questionnaires and reviewed by an expert panel. The initial questionnaire consisted of a pain manikin and 34 items relating to (i) intensity of pain in different body regions (7 items), (ii) pain during activities of daily living (18 items) and (iii) various pain modalities (9 items). Psychometric validation of the initial questionnaire was performed in a random sample of the German-speaking Swiss population. Analyses included tests for reliability, correlation analysis, principal components factor analysis, tests for internal consistency and validity. Overall, 16,634 of 23,763 eligible individuals participated (70%). Test-retest reliability coefficients ranged from 0.32 to 0.97, but only three coefficients were below 0.60. Subscales were constructed combining four items for each of the subscales. Item-total coefficients ranged from 0.76 to 0.86 and Cronbach's alpha were 0.75 or higher for all subscales. Correlation coefficients between subscales and three validated instruments (WOMAC, SPADI and Oswestry) ranged from 0.62 to 0.79. The final Pain Standard Evaluation Questionnaire (SEQ Pain) included 28 items and the pain manikin and accounted for the multidimensionality of pain by assessing pain location and intensity, pain during activity, triggers and time of onset of pain and frequency of pain medication. It was found to be reliable and valid for the assessment of pain in population-based observational studies.

Multilead quantitative electroencephalogram profile and cognitive evoked potentials (P300) in healthy subjects after a single dose of olanzapine

RATIONALE: Olanzapine is an atypical antipsychotic drug with a more favourable safety profile than typical antipsychotics with a hitherto unknown topographic quantitative electroencephalogram (QEEG) profile. OBJECTIVES: We investigated electrical brain activity (QEEG and cognitive event related potentials, ERPs) in healthy subjects who received olanzapine. METHODS: Vigilance-controlled, 19-channel EEG and ERP in an auditory odd-ball paradigm were recorded before and 3 h, 6 h and 9 h after administration of either a single dose of placebo or olanzapine (2.5 mg and 5 mg) in ten healthy subjects. QEEG was analysed by spectral analysis and evaluated in nine frequency bands. For the P300 component in the odd-ball ERP, the amplitude and latency was analysed. Statistical effects were tested using a repeated-measurement analysis of variance. RESULTS: For the interaction between time and treatment, significant effects were observed for theta, alpha-2, beta-2 and beta-4 frequency bands. The amplitude of the activity in the theta band increased most significantly 6 h after the 5-mg administration of olanzapine. A pronounced decrease of the alpha-2 activity especially 9 h after 5 mg olanzapine administration could be observed. In most beta frequency bands, and most significantly in the beta-4 band, a dose-dependent decrease of the activity beginning 6 h after drug administration was demonstrated. Topographic effects could be observed for the beta-2 band (occipital decrease) and a tendency for the alpha-2 band (frontal increase and occipital decrease), both indicating a frontal shift of brain electrical activity. There were no significant changes in P300 amplitude or latency after drug administration. Conclusion: QEEG alterations after olanzapine administration were similar to EEG effects gained by other atypical antipsychotic drugs, such as clozapine. The increase of theta activity is comparable to the frequency distribution observed for thymoleptics or antipsychotics for which treatment-emergent somnolence is commonly observed, whereas the decrease of beta activity observed after olanzapine administration is not characteristic for these drugs. There were no clear signs for an increased cerebral excitability after a single-dose administration of 2.5 mg and 5 mg olanzapine in healthy controls.

Corticospinal output and loss of force during motor fatigue

The objective of this study was to analyze central motor output changes in relation to contraction force during motor fatigue. The triple stimulation technique (TST, Magistris et al. in Brain 121(Pt 3):437-450, 1998) was used to quantify a central conduction index (CCI = amplitude ratio of central conduction response and peripheral nerve response, obtained simultaneously by the TST). The CCI removes effects of peripheral fatigue from the quantification. It allows a quantification of the percentage of the entire target muscle motor unit pool driven to discharge by a transcranial magnetic stimulus. Subjects (n = 23) performed repetitive maximal voluntary contractions (MVC) of abductor digiti minimi (duration 1 s, frequency 0.5 Hz) during 2 min. TST recordings were obtained every 15 s, using stimulation intensities sufficient to stimulate all cortical motor neurons (MNs) leading to the target muscle, and during voluntary contractions of 20% of the MVC to facilitate the responses. TST was also repetitively recorded during recovery. This basic exercise protocol was modified in a number of experiments to further characterize influences on CCI of motor fatigue (4 min exercise at 50% MVC; delayed fatigue recovery during local hemostasis, "stimulated exercise" by 20 Hz trains of 1 s duration at 0.5 Hz during 2 min). In addition, the cortical silent period was measured during the basic exercise protocol. Force fatigued to approximately 40% of MVC in all experiments and in all subjects. In all subjects, CCI decreased during exercise, but this decrease varied markedly between subjects. On average, CCI reductions preceded force reductions during exercise, and CCI recovery preceded force recovery. Exercising at 50% for 4 min reduced muscle force more markedly than CCI. Hemostasis induced by a cuff delayed muscle force recovery, but not CCI recovery. Stimulated exercise reduced force markedly, but CCI decreased only marginally. Summarized, force reduction and reduction of the CCI related poorly quantitatively and in time, and voluntary drive was particularly critical to reduce the CCI. The fatigue induced reduction of CCI may result from a central inhibitory phenomenon. Voluntary muscle activation is critical for the CCI reduction, suggesting a primarily supraspinal mechanism.

High-field 1H T1 and T2 NMR Relaxation Time Measurements of H2O in Homeopathic Preparations of Quartz, Sulfur and Copper Sulfate

Quantitative meta-analyses of randomized clinical trials investigating the specific therapeutic efficacy of homeopathic remedies yielded statistically significant differences compared to placebo. Since the remedies used contained mostly only very low concentrations of pharmacologically active compounds, these effects cannot be accounted for within the framework of current pharmacology. Theories to explain clinical effects of homeopathic remedies are partially based upon changes in diluent structure. To investigate the latter, we measured for the first time high-field (600/500 MHz) 1H T1 and T2 nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation times of H2O in homeopathic preparations with concurrent contamination control by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Homeopathic preparations of quartz (10c–30c, n = 21, corresponding to iterative dilutions of 100−10–100−30), sulfur (13x–30x, n = 18, 10−13–10−30), and copper sulfate (11c–30c, n = 20, 100−11–100−30) were compared to n = 10 independent controls each (analogously agitated dilution medium) in randomized and blinded experiments. In none of the samples, the concentration of any element analyzed by ICP-MS exceeded 10 ppb. In the first measurement series (600 MHz), there was a significant increase in T1 for all samples as a function of time, and there were no significant differences between homeopathic potencies and controls. In the second measurement series (500 MHz) 1 year after preparation, we observed statistically significant increased T1 relaxation times for homeopathic sulfur preparations compared to controls. Fifteen out of 18 correlations between sample triplicates were higher for controls than for homeopathic preparations. No conclusive explanation for these phenomena can be given at present. Possible hypotheses involve differential leaching from the measurement vessel walls or a change in water molecule dynamics, i.e., in rotational correlation time and/or diffusion. Homeopathic preparations thus may exhibit specific physicochemical properties that need to be determined in detail in future investigations.

Restrictive deferred hydration combined with preemptive norepinephrine infusion during radical cystectomy reduces postoperative complications and hospitalization time: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND Anesthetics and neuraxial anesthesia commonly result in vasodilation/hypotension. Norepinephrine counteracts this effect and thus allows for decreased intraoperative hydration. The authors investigated whether this approach could result in reduced postoperative complication rate. METHODS In this single-center, double-blind, randomized, superiority trial, 166 patients undergoing radical cystectomy and urinary diversion were equally allocated to receive 1 ml·kg·h of balanced Ringer's solution until the end of cystectomy and then 3 ml·kg·h until the end of surgery combined with preemptive norepinephrine infusion at an initial rate of 2 µg·kg·h (low-volume group; n = 83) or 6 ml·kg·h of balanced Ringer's solution throughout surgery (control group; n = 83). Primary outcome was the in-hospital complication rate. Secondary outcomes were hospitalization time, and 90-day mortality. RESULTS In-hospital complications occurred in 43 of 83 patients (52%) in the low-volume group and in 61 of 83 (73%) in the control group (relative risk, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.88; P = 0.006). The rates of gastrointestinal and cardiac complications were lower in the low-volume group than in the control group (5 [6%] vs. 31 [37%]; relative risk, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.07-0.39; P < 0.0001 and 17 [20%] vs. 39 [48%], relative risk, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26-0.60; P = 0.0003, respectively). The median hospitalization time was 15 days [range, 11, 27d] in the low-volume group and 17 days [11, 95d] in the control group (P = 0.02). The 90-day mortality was 0% in the low-volume group and 4.8% in the control group (P = 0.12). CONCLUSION A restrictive-deferred hydration combined with preemptive norepinephrine infusion during radical cystectomy and urinary diversion significantly reduced the postoperative complication rate and hospitalization time.

Subjective pubertal timing and health compromising behaviors among on- time Swiss adolescent girls

AIM: The aim of this research is to assess the associations between subjective pubertal timing (SPT) and onset of health-compromising behaviours among girls reporting an on-time objective pubertal timing (OPT). METHODS: Data were drawn from the Swiss SMASH 2002 survey, a self-administered questionnaire study conducted among a nationally representative sample of 7548 adolescents aged 16-20 years. From the 3658 girls in the initial sample, we selected only those (n = 1003) who provided information about SPT and who reported the average age at menarche, namely 13, considering this as an on-time OPT. Bivariate and logistic analyses were conducted to compare the early, on-time and late SPT groups in terms of onset of health-compromising behaviours. RESULTS: A perception of pubertal precocity was associated with sexual intercourse before age 16 [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.10 (1.30-3.37)] and early use of illegal drugs other than cannabis [AOR: 2.55 (1.30-5.02)]. Conversely, girls perceiving their puberty as late were less likely to report intercourse before age 16 [AOR: 0.30 (0.12-0.75)]. CONCLUSION: Faced with an adolescent girl perceiving her puberty as early, the practitioner should investigate the existence of health-compromising behaviours even if her puberty is or was objectively on-time.

A 13,600-year diatom oxygen isotope record from the South Carpathians (Romania): Reflection of winter conditions and possible links with North Atlantic circulation changes

This study provides a continuous lateglacial and Holocene record of diatom silica oxygen isotope changes (delta O-18(DIAT)) in a subalpine lake sediment sequence obtained from the Retezat Mts (Taul dintre Brazi, 1740 m a.s.l.). This through-flow, shallow, high-altitude lake with a surface area of only 0.4 ha has short water residence time and is predominantly fed by snowmelt and rainwater. Its delta O-18(DIAT) record principally reflects the oxygen isotope composition of the winter and spring precipitation, as diatom blooms occur mainly in the spring and early summer. Hence, changes in delta O-18(DIAT) are interpreted as seasonal scale changes: in the amount of winter precipitation. Low oxygen isotope values (27-28.5 parts per thousand) occurred during the lateglacial until 12,300 cal BP, followed by a sharp increase thereafter. In the Holocene delta O-18(DIAT) values ranged from 29 to 31 parts per thousand until 3200 cal BP, followed by generally lower values during the late Holocene (27-30 parts per thousand). Short-term decreases in the isotopic values were found between 10,140-9570, 9000-8500, 7800-7300, 6300-5800, 5500-5000 and at 8015, 4400, 4000 cal BP. After 3200 cal BP a decreasing trend was visible with the lowest values between 3100-2500 and after 2100 cal BP The general trend in the record suggests that contribution of winter precipitation was generally lower between 11,680 and 3200 cal BP, followed by increased contribution during the last millennia. The late Holocene decrease in delta O-18(DIAT) shows good agreement with the speleothem delta O-18, lake level and testate amoebae records from the Carpathian Mountains that also display gradual delta O-18 decrease and lake level/mire water table level rise after 3200 cal BR Strong positive correlation with North Atlantic circulation and solar activity proxies, such as the Austrian and Hungarian speleothem records, furthermore suggested that short-term increases in the isotopic ratios in the early and mid Holocene are likely connectable to high solar activity phases and high frequency of positive North Atlantic Oscillation indexes that may have resulted in decreased winter precipitation in this region.

Territory Occupancy and Parental Quality as Proxies for Spatial Prioritization of Conservation Areas

In order to maximize their fitness, individuals aim at choosing territories offering the most appropriate combination of resources. As population size fluctuates in time, the frequency of breeding territory occupancy reflects territory quality. We investigated the relationships between the frequency of territory occupancy (2002–2009) vs. habitat characteristics, prey abundance, reproductive success and parental traits in hoopoes Upupa epops L., with the objective to define proxies for the delineation of conservation priority areas. We predicted that the distribution of phenotypes is despotic and sought for phenotypic characteristics expressing dominance. Our findings support the hypothesis of a despotic distribution. Territory selection was non-random: frequently occupied territories were settled earlier in the season and yielded higher annual reproductive success, but the frequency of territory occupancy could not be related to any habitat characteristics. Males found in frequently occupied territories showed traits expressing dominance (i.e. larger body size and mass, and older age). In contrast, morphological traits of females were not related to the frequency of territory occupancy, suggesting that territory selection and maintenance were essentially a male's task. Settlement time in spring, reproductive success achieved in a given territory, as well as phenotypic traits and age of male territory holders reflected territory quality, providing good proxies for assessing priority areas for conservation management.

Dynamic directed interictal connectivity in left and right temporal lobe epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE There is increasing evidence that epileptic activity involves widespread brain networks rather than single sources and that these networks contribute to interictal brain dysfunction. We investigated the fast-varying behavior of epileptic networks during interictal spikes in right and left temporal lobe epilepsy (RTLE and LTLE) at a whole-brain scale using directed connectivity. METHODS In 16 patients, 8 with LTLE and 8 with RTLE, we estimated the electrical source activity in 82 cortical regions of interest (ROIs) using high-density electroencephalography (EEG), individual head models, and a distributed linear inverse solution. A multivariate, time-varying, and frequency-resolved Granger-causal modeling (weighted Partial Directed Coherence) was applied to the source signal of all ROIs. A nonparametric statistical test assessed differences between spike and baseline epochs. Connectivity results between RTLE and LTLE were compared between RTLE and LTLE and with neuropsychological impairments. RESULTS Ipsilateral anterior temporal structures were identified as key drivers for both groups, concordant with the epileptogenic zone estimated invasively. We observed an increase in outflow from the key driver already before the spike. There were also important temporal and extratemporal ipsilateral drivers in both conditions, and contralateral only in RTLE. A different network pattern between LTLE and RTLE was found: in RTLE there was a much more prominent ipsilateral to contralateral pattern than in LTLE. Half of the RTLE patients but none of the LTLE patients had neuropsychological deficits consistent with contralateral temporal lobe dysfunction, suggesting a relationship between connectivity changes and cognitive deficits. SIGNIFICANCE The different patterns of time-varying connectivity in LTLE and RTLE suggest that they are not symmetrical entities, in line with our neuropsychological results. The highest outflow region was concordant with invasive validation of the epileptogenic zone. This enhanced characterization of dynamic connectivity patterns could better explain cognitive deficits and help the management of epilepsy surgery candidates.

Prophylactic antibiotics or G(M)-CSF for the prevention of infections and improvement of survival in cancer patients receiving myelotoxic chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND Febrile neutropenia (FN) and other infectious complications are some of the most serious treatment-related toxicities of chemotherapy for cancer, with a mortality rate of 2% to 21%. The two main types of prophylactic regimens are granulocyte (macrophage) colony-stimulating factors (G(M)-CSF) and antibiotics, frequently quinolones or cotrimoxazole. Current guidelines recommend the use of colony-stimulating factors when the risk of febrile neutropenia is above 20%, but they do not mention the use of antibiotics. However, both regimens have been shown to reduce the incidence of infections. Since no systematic review has compared the two regimens, a systematic review was undertaken. OBJECTIVES To compare the efficacy and safety of G(M)-CSF compared to antibiotics in cancer patients receiving myelotoxic chemotherapy. SEARCH METHODS We searched The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, databases of ongoing trials, and conference proceedings of the American Society of Clinical Oncology and the American Society of Hematology (1980 to December 2015). We planned to include both full-text and abstract publications. Two review authors independently screened search results. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing prophylaxis with G(M)-CSF versus antibiotics for the prevention of infection in cancer patients of all ages receiving chemotherapy. All study arms had to receive identical chemotherapy regimes and other supportive care. We included full-text, abstracts, and unpublished data if sufficient information on study design, participant characteristics, interventions and outcomes was available. We excluded cross-over trials, quasi-randomised trials and post-hoc retrospective trials. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently screened the results of the search strategies, extracted data, assessed risk of bias, and analysed data according to standard Cochrane methods. We did final interpretation together with an experienced clinician. MAIN RESULTS In this updated review, we included no new randomised controlled trials. We included two trials in the review, one with 40 breast cancer patients receiving high-dose chemotherapy and G-CSF compared to antibiotics, a second one evaluating 155 patients with small-cell lung cancer receiving GM-CSF or antibiotics.We judge the overall risk of bias as high in the G-CSF trial, as neither patients nor physicians were blinded and not all included patients were analysed as randomised (7 out of 40 patients). We considered the overall risk of bias in the GM-CSF to be moderate, because of the risk of performance bias (neither patients nor personnel were blinded), but low risk of selection and attrition bias.For the trial comparing G-CSF to antibiotics, all cause mortality was not reported. There was no evidence of a difference for infection-related mortality, with zero events in each arm. Microbiologically or clinically documented infections, severe infections, quality of life, and adverse events were not reported. There was no evidence of a difference in frequency of febrile neutropenia (risk ratio (RR) 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 to 2.84). The quality of the evidence for the two reported outcomes, infection-related mortality and frequency of febrile neutropenia, was very low, due to the low number of patients evaluated (high imprecision) and the high risk of bias.There was no evidence of a difference in terms of median survival time in the trial comparing GM-CSF and antibiotics. Two-year survival times were 6% (0 to 12%) in both arms (high imprecision, low quality of evidence). There were four toxic deaths in the GM-CSF arm and three in the antibiotics arm (3.8%), without evidence of a difference (RR 1.32; 95% CI 0.30 to 5.69; P = 0.71; low quality of evidence). There were 28% grade III or IV infections in the GM-CSF arm and 18% in the antibiotics arm, without any evidence of a difference (RR 1.55; 95% CI 0.86 to 2.80; P = 0.15, low quality of evidence). There were 5 episodes out of 360 cycles of grade IV infections in the GM-CSF arm and 3 episodes out of 334 cycles in the cotrimoxazole arm (0.8%), with no evidence of a difference (RR 1.55; 95% CI 0.37 to 6.42; P = 0.55; low quality of evidence). There was no significant difference between the two arms for non-haematological toxicities like diarrhoea, stomatitis, infections, neurologic, respiratory, or cardiac adverse events. Grade III and IV thrombopenia occurred significantly more frequently in the GM-CSF arm (60.8%) compared to the antibiotics arm (28.9%); (RR 2.10; 95% CI 1.41 to 3.12; P = 0.0002; low quality of evidence). Neither infection-related mortality, incidence of febrile neutropenia, nor quality of life were reported in this trial. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS As we only found two small trials with 195 patients altogether, no conclusion for clinical practice is possible. More trials are necessary to assess the benefits and harms of G(M)-CSF compared to antibiotics for infection prevention in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy.

Time-Efficiency Analysis Comparing Digital and Conventional Workflows for Implant Crowns: A Prospective Clinical Crossover Trial

PURPOSE To compare time-efficiency in the production of implant crowns using a digital workflow versus the conventional pathway. MATERIALS AND METHODS This prospective clinical study used a crossover design that included 20 study participants receiving single-tooth replacements in posterior sites. Each patient received a customized titanium abutment plus a computer-aided design/computer-assisted manufacture (CAD/CAM) zirconia suprastructure (for those in the test group, using digital workflow) and a standardized titanium abutment plus a porcelain-fused-to-metal crown (for those in the control group, using a conventional pathway). The start of the implant prosthetic treatment was established as the baseline. Time-efficiency analysis was defined as the primary outcome, and was measured for every single clinical and laboratory work step in minutes. Statistical analysis was calculated with the Wilcoxon rank sum test. RESULTS All crowns could be provided within two clinical appointments, independent of the manufacturing process. The mean total production time, as the sum of clinical plus laboratory work steps, was significantly different. The mean ± standard deviation (SD) time was 185.4 ± 17.9 minutes for the digital workflow process and 223.0 ± 26.2 minutes for the conventional pathway (P = .0001). Therefore, digital processing for overall treatment was 16% faster. Detailed analysis for the clinical treatment revealed a significantly reduced mean ± SD chair time of 27.3 ± 3.4 minutes for the test group compared with 33.2 ± 4.9 minutes for the control group (P = .0001). Similar results were found for the mean laboratory work time, with a significant decrease of 158.1 ± 17.2 minutes for the test group vs 189.8 ± 25.3 minutes for the control group (P = .0001). CONCLUSION Only a few studies have investigated efficiency parameters of digital workflows compared with conventional pathways in implant dental medicine. This investigation shows that the digital workflow seems to be more time-efficient than the established conventional production pathway for fixed implant-supported crowns. Both clinical chair time and laboratory manufacturing steps could be effectively shortened with the digital process of intraoral scanning plus CAD/CAM technology.

The ecoclimatology of Danum, Sabah, in the context of the world's rainforest regions, with particular reference to dry periods and their impact

Climatic records for Danum for 1985 to 1998, elsewhere in Sabah since 1879, and long monthly rainfall series from other rainforest locations are used to place the climate, and particularly the dry period climatology, of Danum into a world rainforest context. The magnitude frequency and seasonality of dry periods are shown to vary greatly within the world's rainforest zone. The climate of Danum, which is aseasonal but subject, as in 1997 to 1998, to occasional drought, is intermediate between less drought–prone north–western Borneo and the more drought–prone east coast. Changes through time in drought magnitude frequency in Sabah and rainforest locations elsewhere in South–East Asia and in the Neotropics are compared. The 1997 to 1998 ENSO–related drought event in Sabah is placed into a historical context. The effects of drought on tree growth and mortality in the tropics are assessed and a model relating intensity and frequency of drought disturbance to forest structure and composition is discussed.