Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100–600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1–0.2 mol m−3 in year 1990 to 0.2–0.4 mol m−3 in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Differential uptake of (68)Ga-DOTATOC and (68)Ga-DOTATATE in PET/CT of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

PURPOSE Abundant expression of somatostatin receptors (sst) is a characteristic of neuroendocrine tumors (NET). Thus, radiolabeled somatostatin analogs have emerged as important tools for both in vivo diagnosis and therapy of NET. The two compounds most often used in functional imaging with positron emission tomography (PET) are (68)Ga-DOTATATE and (68)Ga-DOTATOC. Both analogs share a quite similar sst binding profile. However, the in vitro affinity of (68)Ga-DOTATATE in binding the sst subtype 2 (sst2) is approximately tenfold higher than that of (68)Ga-DOTATOC. This difference may affect their efficiency in detection of NET lesions, as sst2 is the predominant receptor subtype on gastroenteropancreatic NET. We thus compared the diagnostic value of PET/CT with both radiolabeled somatostatin analogs ((68)Ga-DOTATATE and (68)Ga-DOTATOC) in the same patients with gastroenteropancreatic NET. PATIENTS AND METHODS Twenty-seven patients with metastatic gastroenteropancreatic NET underwent (68)Ga-DOTATOC and (68)Ga-DOTATATE PET/CT as part of the workup before prospective peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT). The performance of both imaging methods was analyzed and compared for detection of individual lesions per patient and for eight defined body regions. A region was regarded as positive if at least one lesion was detected in that region. In addition, radiopeptide uptake in terms of the maximal standardized uptake value (SUV(max)) was compared for concordant lesions and renal parenchyma. RESULTS Fifty-one regions were found positive with both (68)Ga-DOTATATE and (68)Ga-DOTATOC. Overall, however, significantly fewer lesions were detected with (68)Ga-DOTATATE in comparison with (68)Ga-DOTATOC (174 versus 179, p < 0.05). Mean (68)Ga-DOTATATE SUV(max) across all lesions was significantly lower compared with (68)Ga-DOTATOC (16.9 ± 6.8 versus 22.1 ± 12.0, p < 0.01). Mean SUV(max) for renal parenchyma was not significantly different between (68)Ga-DOTATATE and (68)Ga-DOTATOC (12.6 ± 2.6 versus 12.6 ± 2.7). CONCLUSIONS (68)Ga-DOTATOC and (68)Ga-DOTATATE possess similar diagnostic accuracy for detection of gastroenteropancreatic NET lesions (with a potential advantage of (68)Ga-DOTATOC) despite their evident difference in affinity for sst2. Quite unexpectedly, maximal uptake of (68)Ga-DOTATOC tended to be higher than its (68)Ga-DOTATATE counterpart. However, tumor uptake shows high inter- and intraindividual variance with unpredictable preference of one radiopeptide. Thus, our data encourage the application of different sst ligands to enable personalized imaging and therapy of gastroenteropancreatic NET with optimal targeting of tumor receptors.

A patient-specific study of type-B aortic dissection: evaluation of true-false lumen blood exchange

BACKGROUND Aortic dissection is a severe pathological condition in which blood penetrates between layers of the aortic wall and creates a duplicate channel - the false lumen. This considerable change on the aortic morphology alters hemodynamic features dramatically and, in the case of rupture, induces markedly high rates of morbidity and mortality. METHODS In this study, we establish a patient-specific computational model and simulate the pulsatile blood flow within the dissected aorta. The k-ω SST turbulence model is employed to represent the flow and finite volume method is applied for numerical solutions. Our emphasis is on flow exchange between true and false lumen during the cardiac cycle and on quantifying the flow across specific passages. Loading distributions including pressure and wall shear stress have also been investigated and results of direct simulations are compared with solutions employing appropriate turbulence models. RESULTS Our results indicate that (i) high velocities occur at the periphery of the entries; (ii) for the case studied, approximately 40% of the blood flow passes the false lumen during a heartbeat cycle; (iii) higher pressures are found at the outer wall of the dissection, which may induce further dilation of the pseudo-lumen; (iv) highest wall shear stresses occur around the entries, perhaps indicating the vulnerability of this region to further splitting; and (v) laminar simulations with adequately fine mesh resolutions, especially refined near the walls, can capture similar flow patterns to the (coarser mesh) turbulent results, although the absolute magnitudes computed are in general smaller. CONCLUSIONS The patient-specific model of aortic dissection provides detailed flow information of blood transport within the true and false lumen and quantifies the loading distributions over the aorta and dissection walls. This contributes to evaluating potential thrombotic behavior in the false lumen and is pivotal in guiding endovascular intervention. Moreover, as a computational study, mesh requirements to successfully evaluate the hemodynamic parameters have been proposed.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Time of emergence of trends in ocean biogeochemistry

For the detection of climate change, not only the magnitude of a trend signal is of significance. An essential issue is the time period required by the trend to be detectable in the first place. An illustrative measure for this is time of emergence (ToE), that is, the point in time when a signal finally emerges from the background noise of natural variability. We investigate the ToE of trend signals in different biogeochemical and physical surface variables utilizing a multi-model ensemble comprising simulations of 17 Earth system models (ESMs). We find that signals in ocean biogeochemical variables emerge on much shorter timescales than the physical variable sea surface temperature (SST). The ToE patterns of pCO2 and pH are spatially very similar to DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon), yet the trends emerge much faster – after roughly 12 yr for the majority of the global ocean area, compared to between 10 and 30 yr for DIC. ToE of 45–90 yr are even larger for SST. In general, the background noise is of higher importance in determining ToE than the strength of the trend signal. In areas with high natural variability, even strong trends both in the physical climate and carbon cycle system are masked by variability over decadal timescales. In contrast to the trend, natural variability is affected by the seasonal cycle. This has important implications for observations, since it implies that intra-annual variability could question the representativeness of irregularly sampled seasonal measurements for the entire year and, thus, the interpretation of observed trends.

Cotrimoxazole prophylactic treatment prevents malaria in children in sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES Cotrimoxazole prophylactic treatment (CPT) prevents opportunistic infections in HIV-infected or HIV-exposed children, but estimates of the effectiveness in preventing malaria vary. We reviewed studies that examined the effect of CPT on incidence of malaria in children in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS We searched PubMed and EMBASE for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies on the effect of CPT on incidence of malaria and mortality in children and extracted data on the prevalence of sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance-conferring point mutations. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) from individual studies were combined using random effects meta-analysis; confounder-adjusted estimates were used for cohort studies. The importance of resistance was examined in meta-regression analyses. RESULTS Three RCTs and four cohort studies with 5039 children (1692 HIV-exposed; 2800 HIV-uninfected; 1486 HIV-infected) were included. Children on CPT were less likely to develop clinical malaria episodes than those without prophylaxis (combined IRR 0.37, 95% confidence interval: 0.21-0.66), but there was substantial between-study heterogeneity (I-squared = 94%, P < 0.001). The protective efficacy of CPT was highest in an RCT from Mali, where the prevalence of antifolate resistant plasmodia was low. In meta-regression analyses, there was some evidence that the efficacy of CPT declined with increasing levels of resistance. Mortality was reduced with CPT in an RCT from Zambia, but not in a cohort study from Côte d'Ivoire. CONCLUSIONS Cotrimoxazole prophylactic treatment reduces incidence of malaria and mortality in children in sub-Saharan Africa, but study designs, settings and results were heterogeneous. CPT appears to be beneficial for HIV-infected and HIV-exposed as well as HIV-uninfected children.

The Anomalous Merging of the African and North Atlantic Jet Streams during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2010

The North Atlantic jet stream during winter 2010 was unusually zonal, so the typically separated Atlantic and African jets were merged into one zonal jet. Moreover, the latitude–height structure and temporal variability of the North Atlantic jet during this winter were more characteristic of the North Pacific. This work examines the possibility of a flow regime change from an eddy-driven to a mixed eddy–thermally driven jet. A monthly jet zonality index is defined, which shows that a persistent merged jet state has occurred in the past, both at the end of the 1960s and during a few sporadic months. The anomalously zonal jet is found to be associated with anomalous tropical Pacific diabatic heating and eddy anomalies similar to those found during a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state. A Lagrangian back-trajectory diagnosis of eight winters suggests the tropical Pacific is a source of momentum to the Atlantic and African jets and that this source was stronger during the winter of 2010. The results suggest that the combination of weak eddy variance and fluxes in the North Atlantic, along with strong tropical heating, act to push the jet toward a merged eddy–thermally driven state. The authors also find significant SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, which reinforce the anomalous zonal winds, particularly in the eastern Atlantic.

Axial suspension test to assess pre-operative spinal flexibility in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

INTRODUCTION An accurate description of the biomechanical behavior of the spine is crucial for the planning of scoliotic surgical correction as well as for the understanding of degenerative spine disorders. The current clinical assessments of spinal mechanics such as side-bending or fulcrum-bending tests rely on the displacement of the spine observed during motion of the patient. Since these tests focused solely on the spinal kinematics without considering mechanical loads, no quantification of the mechanical flexibility of the spine can be provided. METHODS A spinal suspension test (SST) has been developed to simultaneously monitor the force applied on the spine and the induced vertebral displacements. The system relies on cervical elevation of the patient and orthogonal radiographic images are used to measure the position of the vertebras. The system has been used to quantify the spinal flexibility on five AIS patients. RESULTS Based on the SST, the overall spinal flexibility varied between 0.3 °/Nm for the patient with the stiffer curve and 2 °/Nm for the less rigid curve. A linear correlation was observed between the overall spinal flexibility and the change in Cobb angle. In addition, the segmental flexibility calculated for five segments around the apex was 0.13 ± 0.07 °/Nm, which is similar to intra-operative stiffness measurements previously published. CONCLUSIONS In summary, the SST seems suitable to provide pre-operative information on the complex functional behavior and stiffness of spinal segments under physiological loading conditions. Such tools will become increasingly important in the future due to the ever-increasing complexity of the surgical instrumentation and procedures.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

A system design for space-based space surveillance

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro- satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "As sessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission (Phase A) " performed by the Airbus DS consortium. Space Surveillance and Tracking is part of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and covers the detection, tracking and cataloguing of spa ce debris and satellites. Derived SST services comprise a catalogue of these man-made objects, collision warning, detection and characterisation of in-orbit fragmentations, sub-catalogue debris characterisation, etc. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well - designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond - LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing and fusion, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users. The presented SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements (derived within the ESA SSA Preparatory Program) into account and aims at fulfilling some of the SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. The evaluation of the concept has shown that an according solution can be implemented with low technological effort and risk. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro - satellite platforms, the observation strategy and the results of performance simulations for GEO coverage and cataloguing accuracy

Space-based space surveillance and tracking demonstrator: mission and system design

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro-satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "Assessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission" performed by the Airbus Defence and Space consortium. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well- designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond-LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Furthermore, unique statistical information about small-size LEO debris (mm size) can be collected in-situ. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users and with low technological effort and risk. The SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements into account and aims at fulfilling SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. Additionally, requirements for detection and characterisation of small-sizedLEO debris are considered. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro-satellite platforms, the instrument design and the operational modes. Note that the detailed results of performance simulations for space debris coverage and cataloguing accuracy are presented in a separate paper “Capability of a Space-based Space Surveillance System to Detect and Track Objects in GEO, MEO and LEO Orbits” by J. Silha (AIUB) et al., IAC-14, A6, 1.1x25640.

Lake surface water temperatures of European Alpine lakes (1989–2013) based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 1 km data set

Lake water temperature (LWT) is an important driver of lake ecosystems and it has been identified as an indicator of climate change. Consequently, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) lists LWT as an essential climate variable. Although for some European lakes long in situ time series of LWT do exist, many lakes are not observed or only on a non-regular basis making these observations insufficient for climate monitoring. Satellite data can provide the information needed. However, only few satellite sensors offer the possibility to analyse time series which cover 25 years or more. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is among these and has been flown as a heritage instrument for almost 35 years. It will be carried on for at least ten more years, offering a unique opportunity for satellite-based climate studies. Herein we present a satellite-based lake surface water temperature (LSWT) data set for European water bodies in or near the Alps based on the extensive AVHRR 1 km data record (1989–2013) of the Remote Sensing Research Group at the University of Bern. It has been compiled out of AVHRR/2 (NOAA-07, -09, -11, -14) and AVHRR/3 (NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and MetOp-A) data. The high accuracy needed for climate related studies requires careful pre-processing and consideration of the atmospheric state. The LSWT retrieval is based on a simulation-based scheme making use of the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) Version 10 together with ERA-interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The resulting LSWTs were extensively compared with in situ measurements from lakes with various sizes between 14 and 580 km2 and the resulting biases and RMSEs were found to be within the range of −0.5 to 0.6 K and 1.0 to 1.6 K, respectively. The upper limits of the reported errors could be rather attributed to uncertainties in the data comparison between in situ and satellite observations than inaccuracies of the satellite retrieval. An inter-comparison with the standard Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature product exhibits RMSEs and biases in the range of 0.6 to 0.9 and −0.5 to 0.2 K, respectively. The cross-platform consistency of the retrieval was found to be within ~ 0.3 K. For one lake, the satellite-derived trend was compared with the trend of in situ measurements and both were found to be similar. Thus, orbital drift is not causing artificial temperature trends in the data set. A comparison with LSWT derived through global sea surface temperature (SST) algorithms shows lower RMSEs and biases for the simulation-based approach. A running project will apply the developed method to retrieve LSWT for all of Europe to derive the climate signal of the last 30 years. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.831007.

The Multimodal Brain TumorImage Segmentation Benchmark (BRATS)

In this paper we report the set-up and results of the Multimodal Brain Tumor Image Segmentation Benchmark (BRATS) organized in conjunction with the MICCAI 2012 and 2013 conferences. Twenty state-of-the-art tumor segmentation algorithms were applied to a set of 65 multi-contrast MR scans of low- and high-grade glioma patients - manually annotated by up to four raters - and to 65 comparable scans generated using tumor image simulation software. Quantitative evaluations revealed considerable disagreement between the human raters in segmenting various tumor sub-regions (Dice scores in the range 74-85%), illustrating the difficulty of this task. We found that different algorithms worked best for different sub-regions (reaching performance comparable to human inter-rater variability), but that no single algorithm ranked in the top for all subregions simultaneously. Fusing several good algorithms using a hierarchical majority vote yielded segmentations that consistently ranked above all individual algorithms, indicating remaining opportunities for further methodological improvements. The BRATS image data and manual annotations continue to be publicly available through an online evaluation system as an ongoing benchmarking resource.

Comparison of Somatostatin Receptor Agonist and Antagonist for Peptide Receptor Radionuclide Therapy: A Pilot Study

Preclinical and clinical studies have indicated that somatostatin receptor (sst)-expressing tumors demonstrate higher uptake of radiolabeled sst antagonists than of sst agonists. In 4 consecutive patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors, we evaluated whether treatment with (177)Lu-labeled sst antagonists is feasible. METHODS After injection of approximately 1 GBq of (177)Lu-DOTA-[Cpa-c(DCys-Aph(Hor)-DAph(Cbm)-Lys-Thr-Cys)-DTyr-NH2] ((177)Lu-DOTA-JR11) and (177)Lu-DOTATATE, 3-dimensional voxel dosimetry analysis based on SPECT/CT was performed. A higher tumor-to-organ dose ratio for (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11 than for (177)Lu-DOTATATE was the prerequisite for treatment with (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11. RESULTS Reversible minor adverse effects of (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11 were observed. (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11 showed a 1.7-10.6 times higher tumor dose than (177)Lu-DOTATATE. At the same time, the tumor-to-kidney and tumor-to-bone marrow dose ratio was 1.1-7.2 times higher. All 4 patients were treated with (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11, resulting in partial remission in 2 patients, stable disease in 1 patient, and mixed response in the other patient. CONCLUSION Treatment of neuroendocrine tumors with radiolabeled sst antagonists is clinically feasible and may have a significant impact on peptide receptor radionuclide therapy.