Time of emergence of trends in ocean biogeochemistry

For the detection of climate change, not only the magnitude of a trend signal is of significance. An essential issue is the time period required by the trend to be detectable in the first place. An illustrative measure for this is time of emergence (ToE), that is, the point in time when a signal finally emerges from the background noise of natural variability. We investigate the ToE of trend signals in different biogeochemical and physical surface variables utilizing a multi-model ensemble comprising simulations of 17 Earth system models (ESMs). We find that signals in ocean biogeochemical variables emerge on much shorter timescales than the physical variable sea surface temperature (SST). The ToE patterns of pCO2 and pH are spatially very similar to DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon), yet the trends emerge much faster – after roughly 12 yr for the majority of the global ocean area, compared to between 10 and 30 yr for DIC. ToE of 45–90 yr are even larger for SST. In general, the background noise is of higher importance in determining ToE than the strength of the trend signal. In areas with high natural variability, even strong trends both in the physical climate and carbon cycle system are masked by variability over decadal timescales. In contrast to the trend, natural variability is affected by the seasonal cycle. This has important implications for observations, since it implies that intra-annual variability could question the representativeness of irregularly sampled seasonal measurements for the entire year and, thus, the interpretation of observed trends.

The Anomalous Merging of the African and North Atlantic Jet Streams during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2010

The North Atlantic jet stream during winter 2010 was unusually zonal, so the typically separated Atlantic and African jets were merged into one zonal jet. Moreover, the latitude–height structure and temporal variability of the North Atlantic jet during this winter were more characteristic of the North Pacific. This work examines the possibility of a flow regime change from an eddy-driven to a mixed eddy–thermally driven jet. A monthly jet zonality index is defined, which shows that a persistent merged jet state has occurred in the past, both at the end of the 1960s and during a few sporadic months. The anomalously zonal jet is found to be associated with anomalous tropical Pacific diabatic heating and eddy anomalies similar to those found during a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state. A Lagrangian back-trajectory diagnosis of eight winters suggests the tropical Pacific is a source of momentum to the Atlantic and African jets and that this source was stronger during the winter of 2010. The results suggest that the combination of weak eddy variance and fluxes in the North Atlantic, along with strong tropical heating, act to push the jet toward a merged eddy–thermally driven state. The authors also find significant SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, which reinforce the anomalous zonal winds, particularly in the eastern Atlantic.

Axial suspension test to assess pre-operative spinal flexibility in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

INTRODUCTION An accurate description of the biomechanical behavior of the spine is crucial for the planning of scoliotic surgical correction as well as for the understanding of degenerative spine disorders. The current clinical assessments of spinal mechanics such as side-bending or fulcrum-bending tests rely on the displacement of the spine observed during motion of the patient. Since these tests focused solely on the spinal kinematics without considering mechanical loads, no quantification of the mechanical flexibility of the spine can be provided. METHODS A spinal suspension test (SST) has been developed to simultaneously monitor the force applied on the spine and the induced vertebral displacements. The system relies on cervical elevation of the patient and orthogonal radiographic images are used to measure the position of the vertebras. The system has been used to quantify the spinal flexibility on five AIS patients. RESULTS Based on the SST, the overall spinal flexibility varied between 0.3 °/Nm for the patient with the stiffer curve and 2 °/Nm for the less rigid curve. A linear correlation was observed between the overall spinal flexibility and the change in Cobb angle. In addition, the segmental flexibility calculated for five segments around the apex was 0.13 ± 0.07 °/Nm, which is similar to intra-operative stiffness measurements previously published. CONCLUSIONS In summary, the SST seems suitable to provide pre-operative information on the complex functional behavior and stiffness of spinal segments under physiological loading conditions. Such tools will become increasingly important in the future due to the ever-increasing complexity of the surgical instrumentation and procedures.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

A system design for space-based space surveillance

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro- satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "As sessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission (Phase A) " performed by the Airbus DS consortium. Space Surveillance and Tracking is part of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and covers the detection, tracking and cataloguing of spa ce debris and satellites. Derived SST services comprise a catalogue of these man-made objects, collision warning, detection and characterisation of in-orbit fragmentations, sub-catalogue debris characterisation, etc. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well - designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond - LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing and fusion, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users. The presented SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements (derived within the ESA SSA Preparatory Program) into account and aims at fulfilling some of the SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. The evaluation of the concept has shown that an according solution can be implemented with low technological effort and risk. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro - satellite platforms, the observation strategy and the results of performance simulations for GEO coverage and cataloguing accuracy

Space-based space surveillance and tracking demonstrator: mission and system design

This paper presents the capabilities of a Space-Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) demonstration mission for Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) based on a micro-satellite platform. The results have been produced in the frame of ESA’s "Assessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance Demonstration Mission" performed by the Airbus Defence and Space consortium. The assessment of SBSS in an SST system architecture has shown that both an operational SBSS and also already a well- designed space-based demonstrator can provide substantial performance in terms of surveillance and tracking of beyond-LEO objects. Especially the early deployment of a demonstrator, possible by using standard equipment, could boost initial operating capability and create a self-maintained object catalogue. Furthermore, unique statistical information about small-size LEO debris (mm size) can be collected in-situ. Unlike classical technology demonstration missions, the primary goal is the demonstration and optimisation of the functional elements in a complex end-to-end chain (mission planning, observation strategies, data acquisition, processing, etc.) until the final products can be offered to the users and with low technological effort and risk. The SBSS system concept takes the ESA SST System Requirements into account and aims at fulfilling SST core requirements in a stand-alone manner. Additionally, requirements for detection and characterisation of small-sizedLEO debris are considered. The paper presents details of the system concept, candidate micro-satellite platforms, the instrument design and the operational modes. Note that the detailed results of performance simulations for space debris coverage and cataloguing accuracy are presented in a separate paper “Capability of a Space-based Space Surveillance System to Detect and Track Objects in GEO, MEO and LEO Orbits” by J. Silha (AIUB) et al., IAC-14, A6, 1.1x25640.

Lake surface water temperatures of European Alpine lakes (1989–2013) based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 1 km data set

Lake water temperature (LWT) is an important driver of lake ecosystems and it has been identified as an indicator of climate change. Consequently, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) lists LWT as an essential climate variable. Although for some European lakes long in situ time series of LWT do exist, many lakes are not observed or only on a non-regular basis making these observations insufficient for climate monitoring. Satellite data can provide the information needed. However, only few satellite sensors offer the possibility to analyse time series which cover 25 years or more. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is among these and has been flown as a heritage instrument for almost 35 years. It will be carried on for at least ten more years, offering a unique opportunity for satellite-based climate studies. Herein we present a satellite-based lake surface water temperature (LSWT) data set for European water bodies in or near the Alps based on the extensive AVHRR 1 km data record (1989–2013) of the Remote Sensing Research Group at the University of Bern. It has been compiled out of AVHRR/2 (NOAA-07, -09, -11, -14) and AVHRR/3 (NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and MetOp-A) data. The high accuracy needed for climate related studies requires careful pre-processing and consideration of the atmospheric state. The LSWT retrieval is based on a simulation-based scheme making use of the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) Version 10 together with ERA-interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The resulting LSWTs were extensively compared with in situ measurements from lakes with various sizes between 14 and 580 km2 and the resulting biases and RMSEs were found to be within the range of −0.5 to 0.6 K and 1.0 to 1.6 K, respectively. The upper limits of the reported errors could be rather attributed to uncertainties in the data comparison between in situ and satellite observations than inaccuracies of the satellite retrieval. An inter-comparison with the standard Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature product exhibits RMSEs and biases in the range of 0.6 to 0.9 and −0.5 to 0.2 K, respectively. The cross-platform consistency of the retrieval was found to be within ~ 0.3 K. For one lake, the satellite-derived trend was compared with the trend of in situ measurements and both were found to be similar. Thus, orbital drift is not causing artificial temperature trends in the data set. A comparison with LSWT derived through global sea surface temperature (SST) algorithms shows lower RMSEs and biases for the simulation-based approach. A running project will apply the developed method to retrieve LSWT for all of Europe to derive the climate signal of the last 30 years. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.831007.

Comparison of Somatostatin Receptor Agonist and Antagonist for Peptide Receptor Radionuclide Therapy: A Pilot Study

Preclinical and clinical studies have indicated that somatostatin receptor (sst)-expressing tumors demonstrate higher uptake of radiolabeled sst antagonists than of sst agonists. In 4 consecutive patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors, we evaluated whether treatment with (177)Lu-labeled sst antagonists is feasible. METHODS After injection of approximately 1 GBq of (177)Lu-DOTA-[Cpa-c(DCys-Aph(Hor)-DAph(Cbm)-Lys-Thr-Cys)-DTyr-NH2] ((177)Lu-DOTA-JR11) and (177)Lu-DOTATATE, 3-dimensional voxel dosimetry analysis based on SPECT/CT was performed. A higher tumor-to-organ dose ratio for (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11 than for (177)Lu-DOTATATE was the prerequisite for treatment with (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11. RESULTS Reversible minor adverse effects of (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11 were observed. (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11 showed a 1.7-10.6 times higher tumor dose than (177)Lu-DOTATATE. At the same time, the tumor-to-kidney and tumor-to-bone marrow dose ratio was 1.1-7.2 times higher. All 4 patients were treated with (177)Lu-DOTA-JR11, resulting in partial remission in 2 patients, stable disease in 1 patient, and mixed response in the other patient. CONCLUSION Treatment of neuroendocrine tumors with radiolabeled sst antagonists is clinically feasible and may have a significant impact on peptide receptor radionuclide therapy.

[DOTA]Somatostatin-14 analogs and their (111)In-radioligands: effects of decreasing ring-size on sst1-5 profile, stability and tumor targeting.

Multiple somatostatin receptor (sst)-subtype expression has been manifested in several human tumors. Hence, the availability of radiopeptides retaining the full pansomatostatin profile of the native hormone (SS14) is expected to increase the sensitivity and broaden the clinical indications of currently applied sst2-preferring cyclic octapeptide radioligands, like OctreoScan(®) ([(111)In-DTPA]octreotide). On the other hand, SS14 has been excluded from clinical use due to its rapid in vivo degradation. We herein present a small library of seven novel cyclic SS14-mimics carrying at their N-terminus the universal chelator DOTA (1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane-1,4,7,10-tetraacetic acid) for stable binding of medically useful radiometals, like (111)In. By decreasing the number of amino acids composing the ring in their structure from 12 up to 6 AA, we induced important changes in key-biological parameters in vitro and in vivo. In particular, we observed unexpected changes and even total loss of sst1-5-affinity (6AA-ring), as well as weaker sst2-internalization efficacy as the ring size decreased. In contrast, in vivo stability increased with decreasing ring size, reaching its maximum in the 6AA-ring analogs. Interestingly, only the 12AA- and 9AA-ring members of this series showed sst2-specific uptake in AR4-2J tumors in mice revealing the prominent role of ring size on the biological response of tested SS14-derived radioligands.

GOCE precise orbit determination for the entire Mission – challenges in the final mission phase

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), ESA’s first Earth Explorer core mission, was launched on March 17, 2009 into a sunsynchronous dusk-dawn orbit and eventually re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere on November 11, 2013. A precise science orbit (PSO) product was provided by the GOCE High-level Processing Facility (HPF) from the GPS high-low Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (hl-SST) data from the beginning until the very last days of the mission. We recapitulate the PSO procedure and refer to the results achieved until the official end of the GOCE mission on October 21, 2013, where independent validations with Satellite Laser ranging (SLR) measurements confirmed a high quality of the PSO product of about 2 cm 1-D RMS. We then focus on the period after the official end of the mission, where orbits could still be determined thanks to the continuously running GPS receivers delivering high quality data until a few hours before the re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere. We address the challenges encountered for orbit determination during these last days and report on adaptions in the PSO procedure to also obtain good orbit results at the unprecedented low orbital altitudes below 224 km.

Time Variable Gravity: Contributions of GOCE Satellite Data to Monthly and Bi-monthly GRACE Gravity Estimates

A feasibility study by Pail et al. (Can GOCE help to improve temporal gravity field estimates? In: Ouwehand L (ed) Proceedings of the 4th International GOCE User Workshop, ESA Publication SP-696, 2011b) shows that GOCE (‘Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer’) satellite gravity gradiometer (SGG) data in combination with GPS derived orbit data (satellite-to-satellite tracking: SST-hl) can be used to stabilize and reduce the striping pattern of a bi-monthly GRACE (‘Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment’) gravity field estimate. In this study several monthly (and bi-monthly) combinations of GRACE with GOCE SGG and GOCE SST-hl data on the basis of normal equations are investigated. Our aim is to assess the role of the gradients (solely) in the combination and whether already one month of GOCE observations provides sufficient data for having an impact in the combination. The estimation of clean and stable monthly GOCE SGG normal equations at high resolution ( >  d/o 150) is found to be difficult, and the SGG component, solely, does not show significant added value to monthly and bi-monthly GRACE gravity fields. Comparisons of GRACE-only and combined monthly and bi-monthly solutions show that the striping pattern can only be reduced when using both GOCE observation types (SGG, SST-hl), and mainly between d/o 45 and 60.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949–2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing bservation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14°C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

Detecting dementia in patients with normal neuropsychological screening by Short Smell Test and Palmo-Mental Reflex Test: an observational study

BACKGROUND General practitioners (GPs) are in best position to suspect dementia. Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Clock Drawing Test (CDT) are widely used. Additional neurological tests may increase the accuracy of diagnosis. We aimed to evaluate diagnostic ability to detect dementia with a Short Smell Test (SST) and Palmo-Mental Reflex (PMR) in patients whose MMSE and CDT are normal, but who show signs of cognitive dysfunction. METHODS This was a 3.5-year cross-sectional observational study in the Memory Clinic of the University Department of Geriatrics in Bern, Switzerland. Participating patients with normal MMSE (>26 points) and CDT (>5 points) were referred by GPs because they suspected dementia. All were examined according to a standardized protocol. Diagnosis of dementia was based on DSM-IV TR criteria. We used SST and PMR to determine if they accurately detected dementia. RESULTS In our cohort, 154 patients suspected of dementia had normal MMSE and CDT test results. Of these, 17 (11 %) were demented. If SST or PMR were abnormal, sensitivity was 71 % (95 % CI 44-90 %), and specificity 64 % (95 % CI 55-72 %) for detecting dementia. If both tests were abnormal, sensitivity was 24 % (95 % CI 7-50 %), but specificity increased to 93 % (95 % CI 88-97 %). CONCLUSION Patients suspected of dementia, but with normal MMSE and CDT results, may benefit if SST and PMR are added as diagnostic tools. If both SST and PMR are abnormal, this is a red flag to investigate these patients further, even though their negative neuropsychological screening results.