Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

A multiplex PCR for the simultaneous detection and genotyping of the Echinococcus granulosus complex.

Echinococcus granulosus is characterized by high intra-specific variability (genotypes G1-G10) and according to the new molecular phylogeny of the genus Echinococcus, the E. granulosus complex has been divided into E. granulosus sensu stricto (G1-G3), E. equinus (G4), E. ortleppi (G5), and E. canadensis (G6-G10). The molecular characterization of E. granulosus isolates is fundamental to understand the spatio-temporal epidemiology of this complex in many endemic areas with the simultaneous occurrence of different Echinococcus species and genotypes. To simplify the genotyping of the E. granulosus complex we developed a single-tube multiplex PCR (mPCR) allowing three levels of discrimination: (i) Echinococcus genus, (ii) E. granulosus complex in common, and (iii) the specific genotype within the E. granulosus complex. The methodology was established with known DNA samples of the different strains/genotypes, confirmed on 42 already genotyped samples (Spain: 22 and Bulgaria: 20) and then successfully applied on 153 unknown samples (Tunisia: 114, Algeria: 26 and Argentina: 13). The sensitivity threshold of the mPCR was found to be 5 ng Echinoccoccus DNA in a mixture of up to 1 µg of foreign DNA and the specificity was 100% when template DNA from closely related members of the genus Taenia was used. Additionally to DNA samples, the mPCR can be carried out directly on boiled hydatid fluid or on alkaline-lysed frozen or fixed protoscoleces, thus avoiding classical DNA extractions. However, when using Echinococcus eggs obtained from fecal samples of infected dogs, the sensitivity of the mPCR was low (<40%). Thus, except for copro analysis, the mPCR described here has a high potential for a worldwide application in large-scale molecular epidemiological studies on the Echinococcus genus.

Water quality and health in a Sahelian semi-arid urban context: an integrated geographical approach in Nouakchott, Mauritania

Access to sufficient quantities of safe drinking water is a human right. Moreover, access to clean water is of public health relevance, particularly in semi-arid and Sahelian cities due to the risks of water contamination and transmission of water-borne diseases. We conducted a study in Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania, to deepen the understanding of diarrhoeal incidence in space and time. We used an integrated geographical approach, combining socio-environmental, microbiological and epidemiological data from various sources, including spatially explicit surveys, laboratory analysis of water samples and reported diarrhoeal episodes. A geospatial technique was applied to determine the environmental and microbiological risk factors that govern diarrhoeal transmission. Statistical and cartographic analyses revealed concentration of unimproved sources of drinking water in the most densely populated areas of the city, coupled with a daily water allocation below the recommended standard of 20 l per person. Bacteriological analysis indicated that 93% of the non-piped water sources supplied at water points were contaminated with 10-80 coliform bacteria per 100 ml. Diarrhoea was the second most important disease reported at health centres, accounting for 12.8% of health care service consultations on average. Diarrhoeal episodes were concentrated in municipalities with the largest number of contaminated water sources. Environmental factors (e.g. lack of improved water sources) and bacteriological aspects (e.g. water contamination with coliform bacteria) are the main drivers explaining the spatio-temporal distribution of diarrhoea. We conclude that integrating environmental, microbiological and epidemiological variables with statistical regression models facilitates risk profiling of diarrhoeal diseases. Modes of water supply and water contamination were the main drivers of diarrhoea in this semi-arid urban context of Nouakchott, and hence require a strategy to improve water quality at the various levels of the supply chain.

From Broadstone to Zackenberg

Ecological networks are typically complex constructions of species and their interactions. During the last decade, the study of networks has moved from static to dynamic analyses, and has attained a deeper insight into their internal structure, heterogeneity, and temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we review, discuss and suggest research lines in the study of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of networks and their hierarchical nature. We use case study data from two well-characterized model systems (the food web in Broadstone Stream in England and the pollination network at Zackenberg in Greenland), which are complemented with additional information from other studies. We focus upon eight topics: temporal dynamic space-for-time substitutions linkage constraints habitat borders network modularity individual-based networks invasions of networks and super networks that integrate different network types. Few studies have explicitly examined temporal change in networks, and we present examples that span from daily to decadal change: a common pattern that we see is a stable core surrounded by a group of dynamic, peripheral species, which, in pollinator networks enter the web via preferential linkage to the most generalist species. To some extent, temporal and spatial scales are interchangeable (i.e. networks exhibit ‘ergodicity’) and we explore how space-for-time substitutions can be used in the study of networks. Network structure is commonly constrained by phenological uncoupling (a temporal phenomenon), abundance, body size and population structure. Some potential links are never observed, that is they are ‘forbidden’ (fully constrained) or ‘missing’ (a sampling effect), and their absence can be just as ecologically significant as their presence. Spatial habitat borders can add heterogeneity to network structure, but their importance has rarely been studied: we explore how habitat generalization can be related to other resource dimensions. Many networks are hierarchically structured, with modules forming the basic building blocks, which can result in self-similarity. Scaling down from networks of species reveals another, finer-grained level of individual-based organization, the ecological consequences of which have yet to be fully explored. The few studies of individual-based ecological networks that are available suggest the potential for large intraspecific variance and, in the case of food webs, strong size-structuring. However, such data are still scarce and more studies are required to link individual-level and species-level networks. Invasions by alien species can be tracked by following the topological ‘career’ of the invader as it establishes itself within a network, with potentially important implications for conservation biology. Finally, by scaling up to a higher level of organization, it is possible to combine different network types (e.g. food webs and mutualistic networks) to form super networks, and this new approach has yet to be integrated into mainstream ecological research. We conclude by listing a set of research topics that we see as emerging candidates for ecological network studies in the near future.

Inverse modelling of the 14C bomb pulse in stalagmites to constrain the dynamics of soil carbon cycling at selected European cave sites

The decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is temperature dependent, but its response to a future warmer climate remains equivocal. Enhanced rates of decomposition of SOM under increased global temperatures might cause higher CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, and could therefore constitute a strong positive feedback. The magnitude of this feedback however remains poorly understood, primarily because of the difficulty in quantifying the temperature sensitivity of stored, recalcitrant carbon that comprises the bulk (>90%) of SOM in most soils. In this study we investigated the effects of climatic conditions on soil carbon dynamics using the attenuation of the 14C ‘bomb’ pulse as recorded in selected modern European speleothems. These new data were combined with published results to further examine soil carbon dynamics, and to explore the sensitivity of labile and recalcitrant organic matter decomposition to different climatic conditions. Temporal changes in 14C activity inferred from each speleothem was modelled using a three pool soil carbon inverse model (applying a Monte Carlo method) to constrain soil carbon turnover rates at each site. Speleothems from sites that are characterised by semi-arid conditions, sparse vegetation, thin soil cover and high mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), exhibit weak attenuation of atmospheric 14C ‘bomb’ peak (a low damping effect, D in the range: 55–77%) and low modelled mean respired carbon ages (MRCA), indicating that decomposition is dominated by young, recently fixed soil carbon. By contrast, humid and high MAAT sites that are characterised by a thick soil cover and dense, well developed vegetation, display the highest damping effect (D = c. 90%), and the highest MRCA values (in the range from 350 ± 126 years to 571 ± 128 years). This suggests that carbon incorporated into these stalagmites originates predominantly from decomposition of old, recalcitrant organic matter. SOM turnover rates cannot be ascribed to a single climate variable, e.g. (MAAT) but instead reflect a complex interplay of climate (e.g. MAAT and moisture budget) and vegetation development.

The water vapour flux above Switzerland and its role in the August 2005 extreme precipitation and flooding

The water budget approach is applied to an atmospheric box above Switzerland (hereafter referred to as the “Swiss box”) to quantify the atmospheric water vapour flux using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. The results confirm that the water vapour flux through the Swiss box is highly temporally variable, ranging from 1 to 5 · 107 kg/s during settled anticyclonic weather, but increasing in size by a factor of ten or more during high speed currents of water vapour. Overall, Switzerland and the Swiss box “import” more water vapour than it “exports”, but the amount gained remains only a small fraction (1% to 5%) of the total available water vapour passing by. High inward water vapour fluxes are not necessarily linked to high precipitation episodes. The water vapour flux during the August 2005 floods, which caused severe damage in central Switzerland, is examined and an assessment is made of the computed water vapour fluxes compared to high spatio-temporal rain gauge and radar observations. About 25% of the incoming water vapour flux was stored in Switzerland. The computed water vapour fluxes from ECMWF data compare well with the mean rain gauge observations and the combined rain-gauge radar precipitation products.

A climatology of the diurnal variations of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95° N, 7.44° E), Switzerland, has a unique dataset: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equal quality during night- and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 yr of GROMOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) ozone data, from night- and daytime overpasses over Bern, have also been included in the comparison. Generally, observation and models show good qualitative agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25% less than nighttime ozone (reference is 22:30–01:30). In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. It is important that diurnal ozone variations of this order are taken into account when merging different data sets for the derivation of long-term ozone trends in the stratosphere. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behavior of daily ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. At 0.35 hPa, observations from GROMOS and Aura/MLS show a seasonal pattern in diurnal ozone variations with larger relative amplitudes during daytime in winter (−25 ± 5%) than in summer (−18 ± 4%) (compared to mean values around midnight). For the first time, a time series of the diurnal variations in ozone is presented: 17 yr of GROMOS data show strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. There are some indications that strong temperature tides can suppress the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone via the anticorrelation of temperature and ozone. That means the spatio-temporal variability of solar thermal tides seems to affect the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone.

A climatology of the diurnal variations of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95° N, 7.44° E), Switzerland, has a unique dataset: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equal quality during night- and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 yr of GROMOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) ozone data, from night- and daytime overpasses over Bern, have also been included in the comparison. Generally, observation and models show good qualitative agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25% less than nighttime ozone (reference is 22:30–01:30). In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. It is important that diurnal ozone variations of this order are taken into account when merging different data sets for the derivation of long-term ozone trends in the stratosphere. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behavior of daily ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. At 0.35 hPa, observations from GROMOS and Aura/MLS show a seasonal pattern in diurnal ozone variations with larger relative amplitudes during daytime in winter (−25 ± 5%) than in summer (−18 ± 4%) (compared to mean values around midnight). For the first time, a time series of the diurnal variations in ozone is presented: 17 yr of GROMOS data show strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. There are some indications that strong temperature tides can suppress the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone via the anticorrelation of temperature and ozone. That means the spatio-temporal variability of solar thermal tides seems to affect the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone.

Ancient DNA, a Neolithic legging from the Swiss Alps and the early history of goat

Ancient DNA from a Neolithic legging (1st half of the 3rd millennium BC) found at Lenk, Schnidejoch (2750 m a.sl.) in the Swiss Alps has demonstrated, that modern distribution of genetic variation does not reflect past spatio-temporal signatures. The legging was made from the skin of a domestic goat (Capra hircus), belonging to the caprine haplogroup B1, which is marginal in Europe today, but represents a third highly diverse goat haplogroup entering Europe already in the Neolithic. Population expansion of lineage B therefore happened more than 4500 years ago, but their members were at some point almost completely replaced by goats of today's common A and C haplogroups.

Matrix models for quantifying competitive intransitivity from species abundance data

In a network of competing species, a competitive intransitivity occurs when the ranking of competitive abilities does not follow a linear hierarchy (A > B > C but C > A). A variety of mathematical models suggests that intransitive networks can prevent or slow down competitive exclusion and maintain biodiversity by enhancing species coexistence. However, it has been difficult to assess empirically the relative importance of intransitive competition because a large number of pairwise species competition experiments are needed to construct a competition matrix that is used to parameterize existing models. Here we introduce a statistical framework for evaluating the contribution of intransitivity to community structure using species abundance matrices that are commonly generated from replicated sampling of species assemblages. We provide metrics and analytical methods for using abundance matrices to estimate species competition and patch transition matrices by using reverse-engineering and a colonization-competition model. These matrices provide complementary metrics to estimate the degree of intransitivity in the competition network of the sampled communities. Benchmark tests reveal that the proposed methods could successfully detect intransitive competition networks, even in the absence of direct measures of pairwise competitive strength. To illustrate the approach, we analyzed patterns of abundance and biomass of five species of necrophagous Diptera and eight species of their hymenopteran parasitoids that co-occur in beech forests in Germany. We found evidence for a strong competitive hierarchy within communities of flies and parasitoids. However, for parasitoids, there was a tendency towards increasing intransitivity in higher weight classes, which represented larger resource patches. These tests provide novel methods for empirically estimating the degree of intransitivity in competitive networks from observational datasets. They can be applied to experimental measures of pairwise species interactions, as well as to spatio-temporal samples of assemblages in homogenous environments or environmental gradients.

Mapping epileptic activity: sources or networks for the clinicians?

Epileptic seizures of focal origin are classically considered to arise from a focal epileptogenic zone and then spread to other brain regions. This is a key concept for semiological electro-clinical correlations, localization of relevant structural lesions, and selection of patients for epilepsy surgery. Recent development in neuro-imaging and electro-physiology and combinations, thereof, have been validated as contributory tools for focus localization. In parallel, these techniques have revealed that widespread networks of brain regions, rather than a single epileptogenic region, are implicated in focal epileptic activity. Sophisticated multimodal imaging and analysis strategies of brain connectivity patterns have been developed to characterize the spatio-temporal relationships within these networks by combining the strength of both techniques to optimize spatial and temporal resolution with whole-brain coverage and directional connectivity. In this paper, we review the potential clinical contribution of these functional mapping techniques as well as invasive electrophysiology in human beings and animal models for characterizing network connectivity.

Sonographic patterns of lung consolidation in mechanically ventilated patients with and without ventilator-associated pneumonia: A prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE Thoracic ultrasound (TUS) has been successfully used in the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia. Little is known about its diagnostic potential in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). The purpose of this study was to systematically describe the morphology and temporal changes of sonographic patterns in mechanically ventilated patients and to evaluate the diagnostic performance characteristics of TUS-based VAP diagnoses. MATERIALS AND METHODS Patients who were placed on invasive ventilation for reasons other than pneumonia and who were considered at risk for the development of VAP received daily TUS examinations while being closely monitored for the development of pneumonia. RESULTS Fifty-seven patients were studied. The incidence of VAP was 21.1%. Sonographic patterns of reduced or absent lung aeration were found in 64.2% of examinations. The sonographic pattern of lung consolidation with either dynamic or static air bronchograms was 100% sensitive and 60% specific for VAP in those patients who developed clinical signs and symptoms compatible with pneumonia. The pretest and posttest probabilities were 0.38 and 0.6, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Sonographic patterns of abnormal aeration are frequently observed in mechanically ventilated patients. If sonographic lung consolidation with either static or dynamic air bronchograms is absent, VAP is highly unlikely. The presence of these sonographic patterns in patients with signs and symptoms suggestive of pneumonia significantly increases the probability of VAP.

Hand-held 3D light field photography and applications

We propose a method to acquire 3D light fields using a hand-held camera, and describe several computational photography applications facilitated by our approach. As our input we take an image sequence from a camera translating along an approximately linear path with limited camera rotations. Users can acquire such data easily in a few seconds by moving a hand-held camera. We include a novel approach to resample the input into regularly sampled 3D light fields by aligning them in the spatio-temporal domain, and a technique for high-quality disparity estimation from light fields. We show applications including digital refocusing and synthetic aperture blur, foreground removal, selective colorization, and others.

Promoting Pollinating Insects in Intensive Agricultural Matrices: Field-Scale Experimental Manipulation of Hay-Meadow Mowing Regimes and Its Effects on Bees

Bees are a key component of biodiversity as they ensure a crucial ecosystem service: pollination. This ecosystem service is nowadays threatened, because bees suffer from agricultural intensification. Yet, bees rarely benefit from the measures established to promote biodiversity in farmland, such as agri-environment schemes (AES). We experimentally tested if the spatio-temporal modification of mowing regimes within extensively managed hay meadows, a widespread AES, can promote bees. We applied a randomized block design, replicated 12 times across the Swiss lowlands, that consisted of three different mowing treatments: 1) first cut not before 15 June (conventional regime for meadows within Swiss AES); 2) first cut not before 15 June, as treatment 1 but with 15% of area left uncut serving as a refuge; 3) first cut not before 15 July. Bees were collected with pan traps, twice during the vegetation season (before and after mowing). Wild bee abundance and species richness significantly increased in meadows where uncut refuges were left, in comparison to meadows without refuges: there was both an immediate (within year) and cumulative (from one year to the following) positive effect of the uncut refuge treatment. An immediate positive effect of delayed mowing was also evidenced in both wild bees and honey bees. Conventional AES could easily accommodate such a simple management prescription that promotes farmland biodiversity and is likely to enhance pollination services.

Novel insights into the development and maintenance of the blood-brain barrier

The blood-brain barrier (BBB) is essential for maintaining homeostasis within the central nervous system (CNS) and is a prerequisite for proper neuronal function. The BBB is localized to microvascular endothelial cells that strictly control the passage of metabolites into and out of the CNS. Complex and continuous tight junctions and lack of fenestrae combined with low pinocytotic activity make the BBB endothelium a tight barrier for water soluble moleucles. In combination with its expression of specific enzymes and transport molecules, the BBB endothelium is unique and distinguishable from all other endothelial cells in the body. During embryonic development, the CNS is vascularized by angiogenic sprouting from vascular networks originating outside of the CNS in a precise spatio-temporal manner. The particular barrier characteristics of BBB endothelial cells are induced during CNS angiogenesis by cross-talk with cellular and acellular elements within the developing CNS. In this review, we summarize the currently known cellular and molecular mechanisms mediating brain angiogenesis and introduce more recently discovered CNS-specific pathways (Wnt/β-catenin, Norrin/Frizzled4 and hedgehog) and molecules (GPR124) that are crucial in BBB differentiation and maturation. Finally, based on observations that BBB dysfunction is associated with many human diseases such as multiple sclerosis, stroke and brain tumors, we discuss recent insights into the molecular mechanisms involved in maintaining barrier characteristics in the mature BBB endothelium.