Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Relative Age Effect in Young Swiss Alpine Skiers From 2004 to 2011

PURPOSE To verify whether the relative age effects (RAEs) occur among young male and female Swiss alpine skiers of different age groups and performance levels. Additionally, the efficacy of normalizing performance in physical tests to height and body mass to attenuate RAEs eventually present was tested. METHODS The Swiss-Ski Power Test consists of anthropometric measures and physical tests for coordination and speed, endurance and strength and is used since 2004 to evaluate 11- to 19-years old Swiss competitive alpine skiers. We analysed the distribution of 6996 tests performed by 1438 male and 1031 female alpine skiers between 2004 and 2011 according to the athlete's relative age quartile (Q). Differences in anthropometric measures and performance in physical tests according to Q were assessed and the possibility of attenuating eventual RAEs on performance by normalization of results to height and body mass was tested. RESULTS RAEs were found among all female and male age groups, with no differences between age groups. While performance level did not affect RAE for male skiers, it influenced RAE among female skiers. RAEs also influenced results in all physical tests except upper limbs strength. Normalization of results to body mass attenuated most RAEs identified. CONCLUSION small RAEs are present among young Swiss competitive alpine skiers and should be taken into account in training and selection settings, avoiding the waste of possible future talents. When ranking junior athletes according to their performance in physical tests, normalization of results to body mass decreases the bias caused by RAEs.

The effect of 8 or 5 years of denosumab treatment in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: results from the FREEDOM Extension study

UNLABELLED The FREEDOM study and its Extension provide long-term information about the effects of denosumab for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Treatment for up to 8 years was associated with persistent reduction of bone turnover, continued increases in bone mineral density, low fracture incidence, and a favorable benefit/risk profile. INTRODUCTION This study aims to report the results through year 5 of the FREEDOM Extension study, representing up to 8 years of continued denosumab treatment in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. METHODS Women who completed the 3-year FREEDOM study were eligible to enter the 7-year open-label FREEDOM Extension in which all participants are scheduled to receive denosumab, since placebo assignment was discontinued for ethical reasons. A total of 4550 women enrolled in the Extension (2343 long-term; 2207 cross-over). In this analysis, women in the long-term and cross-over groups received denosumab for up to 8 and 5 years, respectively. RESULTS Throughout the Extension, sustained reduction of bone turnover markers (BTMs) was observed in both groups. In the long-term group, mean bone mineral density (BMD) continued to increase significantly at each time point measured, for cumulative 8-year gains of 18.4 and 8.3 % at the lumbar spine and total hip, respectively. In the cross-over group, mean BMD increased significantly from the Extension baseline for 5-year cumulative gains of 13.1 and 6.2 % at the lumbar spine and total hip, respectively. The yearly incidence of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures remained low in both groups. The incidence of adverse and serious adverse events did not increase over time. Through Extension year 5, eight events of osteonecrosis of the jaw and two events of atypical femoral fracture were confirmed. CONCLUSIONS Denosumab treatment for up to 8 years was associated with persistent reductions of BTMs, continued BMD gains, low fracture incidence, and a consistent safety profile.

Performance of gene-expression profiling test score variability to predict future clinical events in heart transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND A single non-invasive gene expression profiling (GEP) test (AlloMap®) is often used to discriminate if a heart transplant recipient is at a low risk of acute cellular rejection at time of testing. In a randomized trial, use of the test (a GEP score from 0-40) has been shown to be non-inferior to a routine endomyocardial biopsy for surveillance after heart transplantation in selected low-risk patients with respect to clinical outcomes. Recently, it was suggested that the within-patient variability of consecutive GEP scores may be used to independently predict future clinical events; however, future studies were recommended. Here we performed an analysis of an independent patient population to determine the prognostic utility of within-patient variability of GEP scores in predicting future clinical events. METHODS We defined the GEP score variability as the standard deviation of four GEP scores collected ≥315 days post-transplantation. Of the 737 patients from the Cardiac Allograft Rejection Gene Expression Observational (CARGO) II trial, 36 were assigned to the composite event group (death, re-transplantation or graft failure ≥315 days post-transplantation and within 3 years of the final GEP test) and 55 were assigned to the control group (non-event patients). In this case-controlled study, the performance of GEP score variability to predict future events was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC ROC). The negative predictive values (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV) including 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of GEP score variability were calculated. RESULTS The estimated prevalence of events was 17 %. Events occurred at a median of 391 (inter-quartile range 376) days after the final GEP test. The GEP variability AUC ROC for the prediction of a composite event was 0.72 (95 % CI 0.6-0.8). The NPV for GEP score variability of 0.6 was 97 % (95 % CI 91.4-100.0); the PPV for GEP score variability of 1.5 was 35.4 % (95 % CI 13.5-75.8). CONCLUSION In heart transplant recipients, a GEP score variability may be used to predict the probability that a composite event will occur within 3 years after the last GEP score. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00761787.

Clinical usefulness of gene-expression profile to rule out acute rejection after heart transplantation: CARGO II.

AIMS A non-invasive gene-expression profiling (GEP) test for rejection surveillance of heart transplant recipients originated in the USA. A European-based study, Cardiac Allograft Rejection Gene Expression Observational II Study (CARGO II), was conducted to further clinically validate the GEP test performance. METHODS AND RESULTS Blood samples for GEP testing (AlloMap(®), CareDx, Brisbane, CA, USA) were collected during post-transplant surveillance. The reference standard for rejection status was based on histopathology grading of tissue from endomyocardial biopsy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), negative (NPVs), and positive predictive values (PPVs) for the GEP scores (range 0-39) were computed. Considering the GEP score of 34 as a cut-off (>6 months post-transplantation), 95.5% (381/399) of GEP tests were true negatives, 4.5% (18/399) were false negatives, 10.2% (6/59) were true positives, and 89.8% (53/59) were false positives. Based on 938 paired biopsies, the GEP test score AUC-ROC for distinguishing ≥3A rejection was 0.70 and 0.69 for ≥2-6 and >6 months post-transplantation, respectively. Depending on the chosen threshold score, the NPV and PPV range from 98.1 to 100% and 2.0 to 4.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION For ≥2-6 and >6 months post-transplantation, CARGO II GEP score performance (AUC-ROC = 0.70 and 0.69) is similar to the CARGO study results (AUC-ROC = 0.71 and 0.67). The low prevalence of ACR contributes to the high NPV and limited PPV of GEP testing. The choice of threshold score for practical use of GEP testing should consider overall clinical assessment of the patient's baseline risk for rejection.

Frequency modulation of ERK activation dynamics rewires cell fate.

Transient versus sustained ERK MAP kinase (MAPK) activation dynamics induce proliferation versus differentiation in response to epidermal (EGF) or nerve (NGF) growth factors in PC-12 cells. Duration of ERK activation has therefore been proposed to specify cell fate decisions. Using a biosensor to measure ERK activation dynamics in single living cells reveals that sustained EGF/NGF application leads to a heterogeneous mix of transient and sustained ERK activation dynamics in distinct cells of the population, different than the population average. EGF biases toward transient, while NGF biases toward sustained ERK activation responses. In contrast, pulsed growth factor application can repeatedly and homogeneously trigger ERK activity transients across the cell population. These datasets enable mathematical modeling to reveal salient features inherent to the MAPK network. Ultimately, this predicts pulsed growth factor stimulation regimes that can bypass the typical feedback activation to rewire the system toward cell differentiation irrespective of growth factor identity.

Taboo Language and Illness Online: The Use of Specific Emoticons and Graphic Signs to Talk about HIV/AIDS in South Africa

South Africa is one of the countries most affected by HIV/AIDS: According to 2014 UNAIDS data 6.8 million South Africans live with HIV/AIDS, which means a 18.9% prevalence rate among adults (15-49 years old). Despite this strong presence of HIV/AIDS in South African society it remains relatively stigmatized and is not openly talked about. The silence about HIV/AIDS maintained in everyday conversations and the superstitions associated with this illness have led to the creation of a taboo language. This study aims at shedding light on how South African users resort to specific emoticons and graphic signs to talk about HIV/AIDS online. For this purpose 368 Facebook status updates and comments concerning HIV/AIDS and its side effects were analysed. All participants, aged 14-48, lived at the moment of data collection in Cape Town, in the Cape Flats area. The online conversations investigated are mainly in English mixed with Afrikaans and/or Xhosa. The emoticons and graphic signs in most cases display a graphic depiction of the physical (and mental) effects of the illness. These linguistic and semiotic practices employed on Facebook provide insight into how Capetonian users, on the one hand, express solidarity and sympathy with people suffering from HIV/AIDS. On the other hand, the emoticons and graphic signs are used to label and position people affected by HIV/AIDS. Thus, in the South African context social network sites have become an important space and means for communicating HIV/AIDS issues.