67 resultados para SYSTEM DYNAMICS


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Signal proteins are able to adapt their response to a change in the environment, governing in this way a broad variety of important cellular processes in living systems. While conventional molecular-dynamics (MD) techniques can be used to explore the early signaling pathway of these protein systems at atomistic resolution, the high computational costs limit their usefulness for the elucidation of the multiscale transduction dynamics of most signaling processes, occurring on experimental timescales. To cope with the problem, we present in this paper a novel multiscale-modeling method, based on a combination of the kinetic Monte-Carlo- and MD-technique, and demonstrate its suitability for investigating the signaling behavior of the photoswitch light-oxygen-voltage-2-Jα domain from Avena Sativa (AsLOV2-Jα) and an AsLOV2-Jα-regulated photoactivable Rac1-GTPase (PA-Rac1), recently employed to control the motility of cancer cells through light stimulus. More specifically, we show that their signaling pathways begin with a residual re-arrangement and subsequent H-bond formation of amino acids near to the flavin-mononucleotide chromophore, causing a coupling between β-strands and subsequent detachment of a peripheral α-helix from the AsLOV2-domain. In the case of the PA-Rac1 system we find that this latter process induces the release of the AsLOV2-inhibitor from the switchII-activation site of the GTPase, enabling signal activation through effector-protein binding. These applications demonstrate that our approach reliably reproduces the signaling pathways of complex signal proteins, ranging from nanoseconds up to seconds at affordable computational costs.

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As a consequence of flood impacts, communities inhabiting mountain areas are increasingly affected by considerable damage to infrastructure and property. The design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation is crucial for a sustainable development in mountain areas. The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact. Given these premises, firstly, a comprehensive method to derive flood hazard process scenarios for well-defined areas at risk is presented. Secondly, conceptualisations of a static and dynamic flood risk assessment are provided. These are based on formal schemes to compute the risk mitigation performance of devised mitigation strategies within the framework of economic cost-benefit analysis. In this context, techniques suitable to quantify the expected losses induced by the identified flood impacts are provided.

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The rotational nature of shifting cultivation poses several challenges to its detection by remote sensing. Consequently, there is a lack of spatial data on the dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes on a regional, i.e. sub-national, or national level. We present an approach based on a time series of Landsat and MODIS data and landscape metrics to delineate the dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes. Our results reveal that shifting cultivation is a land use system still widely and dynamically utilized in northern Laos. While there is an overall reduction in the areas dominated by shifting cultivation, some regions also show an expansion. A review of relevant reports and articles indicates that policies tend to lead to a reduction while market forces can result in both expansion and reduction. For a better understanding of the different factors affecting shifting cultivation landscapes in Laos, further research should focus on spatially explicit analyses.

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1. Parasites might preferentially feed on hosts in good nutritional condition as such hosts provide better resources for the parasites' own growth, survival and reproduction. However, hosts in prime condition are also better able to develop costly immunological or physiological defence mechanisms, which in turn reduce the parasites' reproductive success. The interplay between host condition, host defence and parasite fitness will thus play an important part in the dynamics of host-parasite systems.;2. In a 2 x 2 design, we manipulated both the access to food in great tit Parus major broods and the exposure of the nestlings to hen fleas Ceratophyllus gallinae, a common ectoparasite of hole-breeding birds. We subsequently investigated the role of manipulated host condition, host immunocompetence, and experimentally induced host defence in nestlings on the reproductive success of individual hen flea females.;3. The food supplementation of the nestlings significantly influenced the parasites' reproductive success. Female fleas laid significantly more eggs when feeding on food-supplemented hosts.;4. Previous parasite exposure of the birds affected the reproductive success of fleas. However, the impact of this induced host response on flea reproduction depended on the birds' natural level of immunocompetence, assessed by the phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) skin test. Flea fecundity significantly decreased with increasing PHA response of the nestlings in previously parasite-exposed broods. No relationship between flea fitness and host immunocompetence was, however, found in previously unexposed broods. The PHA response thus correlates with the nestlings' ability to mount immunological or physiological defence mechanisms against hen fleas. No significant interaction effect between early flea exposure and food supplementation on the parasites' reproductive success was found.;5. Our study shows that the reproductive success of hen fleas is linked to the hosts' food supply early in life and their ability to mount induced immunological or physiological defence mechanisms. These interactions between host quality and parasite fitness are likely to influence host preference, host choice and parasite virulence and thus the evolutionary dynamics in host-parasite systems.

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The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

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Paramyxoviruses include major pathogens with significant global health and economic impact. This large family of enveloped RNA viruses infects cells by employing two surface glycoproteins that tightly cooperate to fuse their lipid envelopes with the target cell plasma membrane, an attachment and a fusion (F) protein. Membrane fusion is believed to depend on receptor-induced conformational changes within the attachment protein that lead to the activation and subsequent refolding of F. While structural and mechanistic studies have considerably advanced our insight into paramyxovirus cell adhesion and the structural basis of F refolding, how precisely the attachment protein links receptor engagement to F triggering remained poorly understood. Recent reports based on work with several paramyxovirus family members have transformed our understanding of the triggering mechanism of the membrane fusion machinery. Here, we review these recent findings, which (i) offer a broader mechanistic understanding of the paramyxovirus cell entry system, (ii) illuminate key similarities and differences between entry strategies of different paramyxovirus family members, and (iii) suggest new strategies for the development of novel therapeutics.

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During development, the genome undergoes drastic reorganization within the nuclear space. To determine tridimensional genome folding, genome-wide techniques (damID/Hi-C) can be applied using cell populations, but these have to be calibrated using microscopy and single-cell analysis of gene positioning. Moreover, the dynamic behavior of chromatin has to be assessed on living samples. Combining fast stereotypic development with easy genetics and microscopy, the nematode C. elegans has become a model of choice in recent years to study changes in nuclear organization during cell fate acquisition. Here we present two complementary techniques to evaluate nuclear positioning of genes either by fluorescence in situ hybridization in fixed samples or in living worm embryos using the GFP-lacI/lacO chromatin-tagging system.

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bstract With its smaller size, well-known boundary conditions, and the availability of detailed bathymetric data, Lake Geneva’s subaquatic canyon in the Rhone Delta is an excellent analogue to understand sedimentary pro- cesses in deep-water submarine channels. A multidisciplinary research effort was undertaken to unravel the sediment dynamics in the active canyon. This approach included innovative coring using the Russian MIR sub- mersibles, in situ geotechnical tests, and geophysical, sedimentological, geochemical and radiometric analysis techniques. The canyon floor/levee complex is character- ized by a classic turbiditic system with frequent spillover events. Sedimentary evolution in the active canyon is controlled by a complex interplay between erosion and sedimentation processes. In situ profiling of sediment strength in the upper layer was tested using a dynamic penetrometer and suggests that erosion is the governing mechanism in the proximal canyon floor while sedimen- tation dominates in the levee structure. Sedimentation rates progressively decrease down-channel along the levee structure, with accumulation exceeding 2.6 cm/year in the proximal levee. A decrease in the frequency of turbidites upwards along the canyon wall suggests a progressive confinement of the flow through time. The multi-proxy methodology has also enabled a qualitative slope-stability assessment in the levee structure. The rapid sediment loading, slope undercutting and over-steepening, and increased pore pressure due to high methane concentrations hint at a potential instability of the proximal levees. Fur- thermore, discrete sandy intervals show very high methane concentrations and low shear strength and thus could cor- respond to potentially weak layers prone to scarp failures.

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The aim of this study was to explore potential causes and mechanisms for the sequence and temporal pattern of tree taxa, specifically for the shift from shrub-tundra to birch–juniper woodland during and after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød in the region surrounding the lake Gerzensee in southern Central Europe. We tested the influence of climate, forest dynamics, community dynamics compared to other causes for delays. For this aim temperature reconstructed from a δ18O-record was used as input driving the multi-species forest-landscape model TreeMig. In a stepwise scenario analysis, population dynamics along with pollen production and transport were simulated and compared with pollen-influx data, according to scenarios of different δ18O/temperature sensitivities, different precipitation levels, with/without inter-specific competition, and with/without prescribed arrival of species. In the best-fitting scenarios, the effects on competitive relationships, pollen production, spatial forest structure, albedo, and surface roughness were examined in more detail. The appearance of most taxa in the data could only be explained by the coldest temperature scenario with a sensitivity of 0.3‰/°C, corresponding to an anomaly of − 15 °C. Once the taxa were present, their temporal pattern was shaped by competition. The later arrival of Pinus could not be explained even by the coldest temperatures, and its timing had to be prescribed by first observations in the pollen record. After the arrival into the simulation area, the expansion of Pinus was further influenced by competitors and minor climate oscillations. The rapid change in the simulated species composition went along with a drastic change in forest structure, leaf area, albedo, and surface roughness. Pollen increased only shortly after biomass. Based on our simulations, two alternative potential scenarios for the pollen pattern can be given: either very cold climate suppressed most species in the Oldest Dryas, or they were delayed by soil formation or migration. One taxon, Pinus, was delayed by migration and then additionally hindered by competition. Community dynamics affected the pattern in two ways: potentially by facilitation, i.e. by nitrogen-fixing pioneer species at the onset, whereas the later pattern was clearly shaped by competition. The simulated structural changes illustrate how vegetation on a larger scale could feed back to the climate system. For a better understanding, a more integrated simulation approach covering also the immigration from refugia would be necessary, for this combines climate-driven population dynamics, migration, individual pollen production and transport, soil dynamics, and physiology of individual pollen production.

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Simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of inundation is key to understanding the role of wetlands under past and future climate change. Earlier modelling studies have mostly relied on fixed prescribed peatland maps and inundation time series of limited temporal coverage. Here, we describe and assess the the Dynamical Peatland Model Based on TOPMODEL (DYPTOP), which predicts the extent of inundation based on a computationally efficient TOPMODEL implementation. This approach rests on an empirical, grid-cell-specific relationship between the mean soil water balance and the flooded area. DYPTOP combines the simulated inundation extent and its temporal persistency with criteria for the ecosystem water balance and the modelled peatland-specific soil carbon balance to predict the global distribution of peatlands. We apply DYPTOP in combination with the LPX-Bern DGVM and benchmark the global-scale distribution, extent, and seasonality of inundation against satellite data. DYPTOP successfully predicts the spatial distribution and extent of wetlands and major boreal and tropical peatland complexes and reveals the governing limitations to peatland occurrence across the globe. Peatlands covering large boreal lowlands are reproduced only when accounting for a positive feedback induced by the enhanced mean soil water holding capacity in peatland-dominated regions. DYPTOP is designed to minimize input data requirements, optimizes computational efficiency and allows for a modular adoption in Earth system models.

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BACKGROUND Understanding the composition and dynamics of the upper respiratory tract microbiota in healthy infants is a prerequisite to investigate the role of the microbiota in patients with respiratory diseases. This is especially true in early life, when the immune system is in development. OBJECTIVE We sought to describe the dynamics of the upper respiratory tract microbiota in healthy infants within the first year of life. METHODS After exclusion of low-quality samples, microbiota characterization was performed by using 16S rDNA pyrosequencing of 872 nasal swabs collected biweekly from 47 unselected infants. RESULTS Bacterial density increased and diversity decreased within the first year of life (R(2) = 0.95 and 0.73, respectively). A distinct profile for the first 3 months of life was found with increased relative abundances of Staphlyococcaceae and Corynebacteriaceae (exponential decay: R(2) = 0.94 and 0.96, respectively). In addition, relative bacterial abundance and composition differed significantly from summer to winter months. The individual composition of the microbiota changed with increasing time intervals between samples and was best modeled by an exponential function (R(2) = 0.97). Within-subject dissimilarity in a 2-week time interval was consistently lower than that between subjects, indicating a personalized microbiota. CONCLUSION This study reveals age and seasonality as major factors driving the composition of the nasal microbiota within the first year of life. A subject's microbiota is personalized but dynamic throughout the first year. These data are indispensable to interpretation of cross-sectional studies and investigation of the role of the microbiota in both healthy subjects and patients with respiratory diseases. They might also serve as a baseline for future intervention studies.

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Many end-stage heart failure patients are not eligible to undergo heart transplantation due to organ shortage, and even those under consideration for transplantation might suffer long waiting periods. A better understanding of the hemodynamic impact of left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) on the cardiovascular system is therefore of great interest. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations give the opportunity to study the hemodynamics in this patient population using clinical imaging data such as computed tomographic angiography. This article reviews a recent study series involving patients with pulsatile and constant-flow LVAD devices in which CFD simulations were used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess blood flow dynamics in the thoracic aorta, demonstrating its potential to enhance the information available from medical imaging.

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This paper presents a method for attributing regional trends in the frequency of extremely hot days (EHDs) to changes in the frequency of the atmospheric patterns that characterize such extraordinary events. The study is applied to mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands for the extended summers of the period 1958–2008, where significant and positive trends in maximum temperature (Tx) have been reported during the second half of the past century. First, the study area was split into eight regions attending to their different temporal variability of the daily Tx series obtained from the Spain02 gridded data set using a clustering procedure. Second, the large-scale atmospheric situations causing EHDs are defined by circulation types (CTs). The obtainment of the CTs differs from the majority of CT classifications proposed in the literature. It is based on regional series and on a previous characterization of the main atmospheric situations obtained using only some days classified as extremes in the different regions. Three different atmospheric fields (SLP, T850, and Z500) from ECMWF reanalysis and analysis data and combinations of them (SLP–T850, SLP–Z500, and T850–Z500) are used to produce six different CT classifications. Subsequently, links between EHD occurrence in the different regions and CT for all days have been established. Finally, a simple model to relate the trends in EHDsfor each region to the changes in the CT frequency appearance has been formulated. Most regions present positive and significant trends in the occurrence of EHDs. The CT classifications using two variables perform better. In particular, SLP–T850 is the best for characterizing the atmospheric situations leading to EHD occurrences for most of the regions. Only a small number of CTs have significant trends in their frequency and are associated with high efficiency causing EHD occurrences in most regions simultaneously, especially in the northern and central regions. Attribution results show that changes in circulation can only explain some part of the regional EHD trends. The percentage of the trend attributable to changes in atmospheric dynamics varies from 15 to 50 %, depends on the region and is sensitive to the selected large-scale variables.

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• Background and Aims The uptake, translocation and redistribution of the heavy metals zinc, manganese, nickel, cobalt and cadmium are relevant for plant nutrition as well as for the quality of harvested plant products. The long-distance transport of these heavy metals within the root system and the release to the shoot in young wheat (Triticum aestivum ‘Arina’) plants were investigated. • Methods After the application of 65Zn, 54Mn, 63Ni, 57Co and 109Cd for 24 h to one seminal root (the other seminal roots being excised) of 54-h-old wheat seedlings, the labelled plants were incubated for several days in hydroponic culture on a medium without radionuclides. • Key Results The content of 65Zn decreased quickly in the labelled part of the root. After the transfer of 65Zn from the roots to the shoot, a further redistribution in the phloem from older to younger leaves was observed. In contrast to 65Zn, 109Cd was released more slowly from the roots to the leaves and was subsequently redistributed in the phloem to the youngest leaves only at trace levels. The content of 63Ni decreased quickly in the labelled part of the root, moving to the newly formed parts of the root system and also accumulating transiently in the expanding leaves. The 54Mn content decreased quickly in the labelled part of the root and increased simultaneously in leaf 1. A strong retention in the labelled part of the root was observed after supplying 57Co. • Conclusions The dynamics of redistribution of 65Zn, 54Mn, 63Ni, 57Co and 109Cd differed considerably. The rapid redistribution of 63Ni from older to younger leaves throughout the experiment indicated a high mobility in the phloem, while 54Mn was mobile only in the xylem and 57Co was retained in the labelled root without being loaded into the xylem.