Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Etomidate - a review of robust evidence for its use in various clinical scenarios

Etomidate is an intravenous hypnotic with a favourable clinical profile in haemodynamic high-risk scenarios. Currently, there is an active debate about the clinical significance of the drug's side effects and its overall risk-benefit ratio. Etomidate-induced transient adrenocortical suppression is well documented and has been associated with increased mortality in sepsis. In surgical patients at risk of hypotensive complications, however, a review of current literature provides no robust evidence to contraindicate a single-bolus etomidate induction. Large randomised controlled trials as well as additional observational data are required to compare safety of etomidate and its alternatives.

Multidisciplinary consensus on assessment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: proposal of an international research group.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE To address the increasing need to counsel patients about treatment indications for unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA), we endeavored to develop a consensus on assessment of UIAs among a group of specialists from diverse fields involved in research and treatment of UIAs. METHODS After composition of the research group, a Delphi consensus was initiated to identify and rate all features, which may be relevant to assess UIAs and their treatment by using ranking scales and analysis of inter-rater agreement (IRA) for each factor. IRA was categorized as very high, high, moderate, or low. RESULTS Ultimately, 39 specialists from 4 specialties agreed (high or very high IRAs) on the following key factors for or against UIA treatment decisions: (1) patient age, life expectancy, and comorbid diseases; (2) previous subarachnoid hemorrhage from a different aneurysm, family history for UIA or subarachnoid hemorrhage, nicotine use; (3) UIA size, location, and lobulation; (4) UIA growth or de novo formation on serial imaging; (5) clinical symptoms (cranial nerve deficit, mass effect, and thromboembolic events from UIAs); and (6) risk factors for UIA treatment (patient age and life expectancy, UIA size, and estimated risk of treatment). However, IRAs for features rated with low relevance were also generally low, which underlined the existing controversy about the natural history of UIAs. CONCLUSIONS Our results highlight that neurovascular specialists currently consider many features as important when evaluating UIAs but also highlight that the appreciation of natural history of UIAs remains uncertain, even within a group of highly informed individuals.

Efficient and Robust Host–Guest Antenna Composite for Light Harvesting

We report discovery of a new efficient and robust antenna composite for light harvesting. The organic dye hostasol red (HR) is strongly luminescent in aprotic solvents but only weakly luminescent in potassium zeolite L (ZL) at ambient conditions. We observed a dramatic increase of the luminescence quantum yield of HR–ZL composites if some or all exchangeable potassium cations of ZL are substituted by an organic imidazolium cation (IMZ+) and if the acceptor HR is embedded in the middle part of the channels, so that it is fully protected by the environment of the perylene dye tb-DXP. This led to the discovery of a highly efficient donor,acceptor-ZL antenna material where tb-DXP acts as donor and HR acts as acceptor. The material has a donor-to-acceptor (D/A) absorption ratio of more than 100:1 and a nearly quantitative FRET efficiency. Synthesis of this host–guest material is reported. We describe a successful procedure for achieving full sealing of the ZL channel entrances such that the guests cannot escape. This new material is of great interest for applications in luminescent solar concentrator (LSC) devices because the efficiency killing self-absorption is very low.

ROBREG: Stata module providing robust regression estimators

robreg provides a number of robust estimators for linear regression models. Among them are the high breakdown-point and high efficiency MM-estimator, the Huber and bisquare M-estimator, and the S-estimator, each supporting classic or robust standard errors. Furthermore, basic versions of the LMS/LQS (least median of squares) and LTS (least trimmed squares) estimators are provided. Note that the moremata package, also available from SSC, is required.

Sudden cardiac death in forensic medicine – Swiss recommendations for a multidisciplinary approach

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is by definition unexpected and cardiac in nature. The investigation is almost invariably performed by a forensic pathologist. Under these circumstances the role of the forensic pathologist is twofold: (1.) to determine rapidly and efficiently the cause and manner of death and (2.) to initiate a multidisciplinary process in order to prevent further deaths in existing family members. If the death is determined to be due to "natural" causes the district attorney in charge often refuses further examinations. However, additional examinations, i.e. extensive histopathological investigations and/or molecular genetic analyses, are necessary in many cases to clarify the cause of death. The Swiss Society of Legal Medicine created a multidisciplinary working group together with clinical and molecular geneticists and cardiologists in the hope of harmonising the approach to investigate SCD. The aim of this paper is to close the gap between the Swiss recommendations for routine forensic post-mortem cardiac examination and clinical recommendations for genetic testing of inherited cardiac diseases; this is in order to optimise the diagnostic procedures and preventive measures for living family members. The key points of the recommendations are (1.) the forensic autopsy procedure for all SCD victims under 40 years of age, (2.) the collection and storage of adequate samples for genetic testing, (3.) communication with the families, and (4.) a multidisciplinary approach including cardiogenetic counselling.

Robust indoor localization of narrowband signals

Many location-based services target users in indoor environments. Similar to the case of dense urban areas where many obstacles exist, indoor localization techniques suffer from outlying measurements caused by severe multipath propaga??tion and non-line-of-sight (NLOS) reception. Obstructions in the signal path caused by static or mobile objects downgrade localization accuracy. We use robust multipath mitigation techniques to detect and filter out outlying measurements in indoor environments. We validate our approach using a power-based lo??calization system with GSM. We conducted experiments without any prior knowledge of the tracked device's radio settings or the indoor radio environment. We obtained localization errors in the range of 3m even if the sensors had NLOS links to the target device.

ERS statement on the multidisciplinary respiratory management of ataxia telangiectasia.

Ataxia telangiectasia (A-T) is a rare, progressive, multisystem disease that has a large number of complex and diverse manifestations which vary with age. Patients with A-T die prematurely with the leading causes of death being respiratory diseases and cancer. Respiratory manifestations include immune dysfunction leading to recurrent upper and lower respiratory infections; aspiration resulting from dysfunctional swallowing due to neurodegenerative deficits; inefficient cough; and interstitial lung disease/pulmonary fibrosis. Malnutrition is a significant comorbidity. The increased radiosensitivity and increased risk of cancer should be borne in mind when requesting radiological investigations. Aggressive proactive monitoring and treatment of these various aspects of lung disease under multidisciplinary expertise in the experience of national multidisciplinary clinics internationally forms the basis of this statement on the management of lung disease in A-T. Neurological management is outwith the scope of this document.