A robust reference signal generator for synchronized ventricular assist devices

Ventricular assist devices (VADs) are blood pumps that offer an option to support the circulation of patients with severe heart failure. Since a failing heart has a remaining pump function, its interaction with the VAD influences the hemodynamics. Ideally, the heart's action is taken into account for actuating the device such that the device is synchronized to the natural cardiac cycle. To realize this in practice, a reliable real-time algorithm for the automatic synchronization of the VAD to the heart rate is required. This paper defines the tasks such an algorithm needs to fulfill: the automatic detection of irregular heart beats and the feedback control of the phase shift between the systolic phases of the heart and the assist device. We demonstrate a possible solution to these problems and analyze its performance in two steps. First, the algorithm is tested using the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. Second, the algorithm is implemented in a controller for a pulsatile and a continuous-flow VAD. These devices are connected to a hybrid mock circulation where three test scenarios are evaluated. The proposed algorithm ensures a reliable synchronization of the VAD to the heart cycle, while being insensitive to irregularities in the heart rate.

Wie robust sind Arbeitsbeziehung und Therapieerfolg ineinander verzahnt? Eine metaanalytische Bestandsaufnahme

Hintergrund: Die therapeutische Arbeitsbeziehung (alliance) ist das meistuntersuchte Prozessmerkmal in der Psychotherapieforschung schlecht hin und zeigt sich als robuster Prädiktor für Therapieerfolg (r = .275). Fragestellung: Welche Einflussfaktoren (wie beispielsweise kognitive Verhaltenstherapie in randomisierten Trials) moderieren den Zusammenhang zwischen Allianz und Erfolg? Methode: Basierend auf über zweihundert in Englisch, deutsch, französisch und italienisch verfassten Primärstudien werden mögliche Moderatoren metaanalytisch untersucht, die den Zusammenhang zwischen Allianz und Therapieerfolg beeinflussen. Resultate: Der aktuelle Stand der APA-Taskforce kann folgendermaßen zusammengefasst werden: (a) Erhebungszeitpunkt der Allianz, (b) Anzahl Patienten pro Therapeut, (b) Forscherinteresse, (c) Therapieerfolg = Abbrüche, (d) Anteil der Nicht-Weißen Bevölkerung und (e) Alkohol und -Substanzmissbrauch als Ausschlusskriterium, beeinflussen den Zusammenhang zwischen Allianz und Erfolg. Folgenden Aspekten moderieren den Zusammenhang zwischen Allianz und Therapieerfolg nicht: (a) Allianz-Messmittel und Erhebungsperspektive (Patient, Therapeut oder Beobachter), (b) Doktorarbeiten, (c) Therapietradition (Kognitive-Behaviorale, Interpersonale, psychodynamische Therapien), (d) randomisiert kontrollierte Trials, (e) manualisierte Therapien, (f ) störungsspezifische Erfolgsmessung, (g) Persönlichkeitsstörungen, (h) nicht-englisch sprachliche Manuskripte. Diskussion: Durch die Moderatoren kann ein beträchtlicher Anteil der Heterogenität erklärt werden. Die Beziehung zwischen Allianz und Therapieerfolg wird durch konzeptuelle biopsychosozialer Faktoren mitbeeinflusst.

Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

The Politics of Local Autonomy: Measuring Cantonal (De)Centralisation in Switzerland

In Switzerland, there are 26 systems of cantonal decentralisation because regulating municipal autonomy is an exclusively cantonal competency. Existing measures of local autonomy/cantonal decentralisation are confined to measuring the real or perceived distribution of functions. Alternatively, they weigh expenditures (Dafflon 1992) or tax revenues (Dlabac and Schaub forthcoming) of municipalities against those of the canton. Complementing these indices, this paper additionally measures the politics dimension of cantonal decentralisation. Seven aspects are measured: intra-cantonal regionalism, cumuldesmandats (double tenure of cantonal MP and mayoral office), territorial quotas for legislative and executive elections, direct local representation and lobbying, party decentralisation, the number and size of constituencies, and direct democracy (communal referendum and initiative). This results in a ranking of all 26 cantons as regards the politics of local autonomy within their political systems. The measure will help scholars to test assumptions held for decentralisation in general, be it as a dependent (explaining decentralisation) or as an independent variable (decentralisation—so what?), within but also beyond the Swiss context.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Etomidate - a review of robust evidence for its use in various clinical scenarios

Etomidate is an intravenous hypnotic with a favourable clinical profile in haemodynamic high-risk scenarios. Currently, there is an active debate about the clinical significance of the drug's side effects and its overall risk-benefit ratio. Etomidate-induced transient adrenocortical suppression is well documented and has been associated with increased mortality in sepsis. In surgical patients at risk of hypotensive complications, however, a review of current literature provides no robust evidence to contraindicate a single-bolus etomidate induction. Large randomised controlled trials as well as additional observational data are required to compare safety of etomidate and its alternatives.