Risk scoring for setting priorities in a monitoring of antimicrobial resistance in meat and meat products

Meat and meat products can be contaminated with different species of bacteria resistant to various antimicrobials. The human health risk of a type of meat or meat product carry by emerging antimicrobial resistance depends on (i) the prevalence of contamination with resistant bacteria, (ii) the human health consequences of an infection with a specific bacterium resistant to a specific antimicrobial and (iii) the consumption volume of a specific product. The objective of this study was to compare the risk for consumers arising from their exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria from meat of four different types (chicken, pork, beef and veal), distributed in four different product categories (fresh meat, frozen meat, dried raw meat products and heat-treated meat products). A semi-quantitative risk assessment model, evaluating each food chain step, was built in order to get an estimated score for the prevalence of Campylobacter spp., Enterococcus spp. and Escherichia coli in each product category. To assess human health impact, nine combinations of bacterial species and antimicrobial agents were considered based on a published risk profile. The combination of the prevalence at retail, the human health impact and the amount of meat or product consumed, provided the relative proportion of total risk attributed to each category of product, resulting in a high, medium or low human health risk. According to the results of the model, chicken (mostly fresh and frozen meat) contributed 6.7% of the overall risk in the highest category and pork (mostly fresh meat and dried raw meat products) contributed 4.0%. The contribution of beef and veal was of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. The results were tested and discussed for single parameter changes of the model. This risk assessment was a useful tool for targeting antimicrobial resistance monitoring to those meat product categories where the expected risk for public health was greater.

Prevalence and risk factors for carriage of multi-drug resistant Staphylococci in healthy cats and dogs

We investigated the distribution of commensal staphylococcal species and determined the prevalence of multi-drug resistance in healthy cats and dogs. Risk factors associated with the carriage of multi-drug resistant strains were explored. Isolates from 256 dogs and 277 cats were identified at the species level using matrix-assisted laser desorption ionisation-time of flight mass spectrometry. The diversity of coagulase-negative Staphylococci (CNS) was high, with 22 species in dogs and 24 in cats. Multi-drug resistance was frequent (17%) and not always associated with the presence of the mecA gene. A stay in a veterinary clinic in the last year was associated with an increased risk of colonisation by multi-drug resistant Staphylococci (OR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.1˜5.2, p value LRT = 0.04). When identifying efficient control strategies against antibiotic resistance, the presence of mechanisms other than methicillin resistance and the possible role of CNS in the spread of resistance determinants should be considered.

Does flow experience lead to risk? How and for whom

Background: Previous research has focused on the positive consequences of flow, an intrinsically rewarding state of deep absorption. In contrast, the present research links flow to impaired risk awareness and to risky behaviour. We expected flow to enhance self-efficacy beliefs, which in turn were hypothesised to result in low risk awareness and risky behaviour in sports. In addition, we predicted that individuals' level of experience in the activity would moderate the expected effects. Methods: One study with kayakers (Study 1) and two studies with rock climbers (Studies 2 and 3) were conducted. Kayakers completed a survey while still on the river; climbers responded during and upon completion of a climb. Results: In all studies flow was related to risk awareness. Study 2 additionally showed its association with risky behaviour. Studies 2 and 3 revealed that these relationships were mediated by self-efficacy. The mediations were moderated by level of experience (Study 3). Conclusions: The results indicated that inexperienced but not experienced participants respond to self-efficacy beliefs evoked by flow with impaired risk awareness and with risky behaviour. Theoretical implications for flow and risk research as well as practical implications for risk prevention are discussed.

Different Prognostic Value of Functional Right Ventricular Parameters in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy/Dysplasia

BACKGROUND -The value of standard two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) parameters for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) is controversial. METHODS AND RESULTS -We investigated the impact of right ventricular fractional area change (FAC) and tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, survived sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, sustained ventricular tachycardia or arrhythmogenic syncope. Among 70 patients who fulfilled the 2010 ARVC/D Task Force Criteria and underwent baseline TTE, 37 (53%) patients experienced a MACE during a median follow-up period of 5.3 (IQR 1.8-9.8) years. Average values for FAC, TAPSE, and TAPSE indexed to body surface area (BSA) decreased over time (p=0.03 for FAC, p=0.03 for TAPSE and p=0.01 for TAPSE/BSA, each vs. baseline). In contrast, median right ventricular end-diastolic area (RVEDA) increased (p=0.001 vs. baseline). Based on the results of Kaplan-Meier estimates, the time between baseline TTE and experiencing MACE was significantly shorter for patients with FAC <23% (p<0.001), TAPSE <17mm (p=0.02) or right atrial (RA) short axis/BSA ≥25mm/m(2) (p=0.04) at baseline. A reduced FAC constituted the strongest predictor of MACE (hazard ratio 1.08 per 1% decrease; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.12; p<0.001) on bivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS -This long-term observational study indicates that TAPSE and dilation of right-sided cardiac chambers are associated with an increased risk for MACE in ARVC/D patients with advanced disease and a high risk for adverse events. However, FAC is the strongest echocardiographic predictor of adverse outcome in these patients. Our data advocate a role for TTE in risk stratification in patients with ARVC/D, although our results may not be generalizable to lower risk ARVC/D cohorts.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Role of diuretics, blockers, and statins in increasing the risk of diabetes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance: reanalysis of data from the NAVIGATOR study

OBJECTIVE To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes. DESIGN Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. SETTING NAVIGATOR trial. PARTICIPANTS Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment. RESULTS During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant.

Personality dimensions in persons symptomatically at risk of psychosis: pronounced but lacking a characteristic profile

AIM Personality dimensions are frequently abnormal in psychosis. We examined if these abnormalities form a personality profile that is characteristic for patients symptomatically at risk of psychosis. METHODS Four higher order personality dimensions were assessed in 104 at-risk patients, 67 clinical and 97 healthy controls with the 'Dimensional Assessment of Personality Pathology', and analysed by two-step cluster procedure to detect personality profiles. Logistic regression was used to test for predictors of profile assignment. RESULTS Low and high scorers were distinguished by two profiles. Patients were more likely high scorers. The presence of clinically relevant depression, though equally frequent in clinical groups, best predicted high scorers among patients. CONCLUSIONS Though at-risk patients were significantly more often high scorers, this seemed to be a general reflection of the level of psychopathology rather than a group characteristic. Thus, personality dimensions might be of little value for facilitating early detection but might be important to consider in early intervention approaches.

Evaluation of 9 biomarkers for predicting 10-year cardiovascular risk in patients undergoing coronary angiography: findings from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study.

BACKGROUND Conventional factors do not fully explain the distribution of cardiovascular outcomes. Biomarkers are known to participate in well-established pathways associated with cardiovascular disease, and may therefore provide further information over and above conventional risk factors. This study sought to determine whether individual and/or combined assessment of 9 biomarkers improved discrimination, calibration and reclassification of cardiovascular mortality. METHODS 3267 patients (2283 men), aged 18-95 years, at intermediate-to-high-risk of cardiovascular disease were followed in this prospective cohort study. Conventional risk factors and biomarkers were included based on forward and backward Cox proportional stepwise selection models. RESULTS During 10-years of follow-up, 546 fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Four biomarkers (interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D) were retained during stepwise selection procedures for subsequent analyses. Simultaneous inclusion of these biomarkers significantly improved discrimination as measured by the C-index (0.78, P = 0.0001), and integrated discrimination improvement (0.0219, P<0.0001). Collectively, these biomarkers improved net reclassification for cardiovascular death by 10.6% (P<0.0001) when added to the conventional risk model. CONCLUSIONS In terms of adverse cardiovascular prognosis, a biomarker panel consisting of interleukin-6, neutrophils, von Willebrand factor, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D offered significant incremental value beyond that conveyed by simple conventional risk factors.

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs and oxygenated PAHs) and trace metals in fish species from Ghana (West Africa): Bioaccumulation and health risk assessment

We report the concentrations of 28 PAHs, 15 oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) and 11 trace metals/metalloids (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) in muscle and gut + gill tissues of demersal fishes (Drapane africana, Cynoglossus senegalensis and Pomadasys peroteti) from three locations along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea (Ghana). The concentrations of ∑ 28PAHs in muscle tissues averaged 192 ng g− 1 dw (range: 71–481 ng g− 1 dw) and were not statistically different between locations. The concentrations of ∑ 28 PAHs were higher in guts + gills than in muscles. The PAH composition pattern was dominated by low molecular weight compounds (naphthalene, alkyl-naphthalenes and phenanthrene). All fish tissues had benzo[a]pyrene concentrations lower than the EU limit for food safety. Excess cancer risk from consumption of some fish was higher than the guideline value of 1 × 10− 6. The concentrations of ∑ 15 OPAHs in fish muscles averaged 422 ng g− 1 dw (range: 28–1715 ng g− 1dw). The ∑ 15 OPAHs/∑ 16 US-EPA PAHs concentration ratio was > 1 in 68% of the fish muscles and 100% of guts + gills. The log-transformed concentrations of PAHs and OPAHs in muscles, guts + gills were significantly (p < 0.05) correlated with their octanol–water partitioning coefficients, strongly suggesting that equilibrium partitioning from water/sediment into fish tissue was the main mechanism of bioaccumulation. The trace metal concentrations in the fish tissues were in the medium range when compared to fish from other parts of the world. The concentrations of some trace metals (Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) were higher in guts + gills than in muscle tissues. The target hazard quotients for metals were < 1 and did not indicate a danger to the local population. We conclude that the health risk arising from the consumption of the studied fish (due to their PAHs and trace metals content) is minimal.

The MI SYNTAX score for risk stratification in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention for treatment of acute myocardial infarction: A substudy of the COMFORTABLE AMI trial.

BACKGROUND To investigate the performance of the MI Sxscore in a multicentre randomised trial of patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). METHODS AND RESULTS The MI Sxscore was prospectively determined among 1132 STEMI patients enrolled into the COMFORTABLE AMI trial, which randomised patients to treatment with bare-metal (BMS) or biolimus-eluting (BES) stents. Patient- (death, myocardial infarction, any revascularisation) and device-oriented (cardiac death, target-vessel MI, target lesion revascularisation) major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) were compared across MI Sxscore tertiles and according to stent type. The median MI SXscore was 14 (IQR: 9-21). Patients were divided into tertiles of Sxscorelow (≤10), Sxscoreintermediate (11-18) and Sxscorehigh (≥19). At 1year, patient-oriented MACE occurred in 15% of the Sxscorehigh, 9% of the Sxscoreintermediate and 5% of the Sxscorelow tertiles (p<0.001), whereas device-oriented MACE occurred in 8% of the Sxscorehigh, 6% of the Sxscoreintermediate and 4% of the Sxscorelow tertiles (p=0.03). Addition of the MI Sxscore to the TIMI risk score improved prediction of patient- (c-statistic value increase from 0.63 to 0.69) and device-oriented MACEs (c-statistic value increase from 0.65 to 0.70). Differences in the risk for device-oriented MACE between BMS and BES were evident among Sxscorehigh (13% vs. 4% HR 0.33 (0.15-0.74), p=0.007 rather than those in Sxscorelow: 4% vs. 3% HR 0.68 (0.24-1.97), p=0.48) tertiles. CONCLUSIONS The MI Sxscore allows risk stratification of patient- and device-oriented MACEs among patients undergoing PPCI. The addition of the MI Sxscore to the TIMI risk score is of incremental prognostic value among patients undergoing PPCI for treatment of STEMI.

A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Developing Psychosis and Its Risk States Through the Lens of Schizotypy

Starting from the early descriptions of Kraepelin and Bleuler, the construct of schizotypy was developed from observations of aberrations in nonpsychotic family members of schizophrenia patients. In contemporary diagnostic manuals, the positive symptoms of schizotypal personality disorder were included in the ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria 20 years ago, and nowadays are broadly employed in clinical early detection of psychosis. The schizotypy construct, now dissociated from strict familial risk, also informed research on the liability to develop any psychotic disorder, and in particular schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, even outside clinical settings. Against the historical background of schizotypy it is surprising that evidence from longitudinal studies linking schizotypy, UHR, and conversion to psychosis has only recently emerged; and it still remains unclear how schizotypy may be positioned in high-risk research. Following a comprehensive literature search, we review 18 prospective studies on 15 samples examining the evidence for a link between trait schizotypy and conversion to psychosis in 4 different types of samples: general population, clinical risk samples according to UHR and/or basic symptom criteria, genetic (familial) risk, and clinical samples at-risk for a nonpsychotic schizophrenia-spectrum diagnosis. These prospective studies underline the value of schizotypy in high-risk research, but also point to the lack of evidence needed to better define the position of the construct of schizotypy within a developmental psychopathology perspective of emerging psychosis and schizophrenia-spectrum disorders

Comparative therapeutic value of post-remission approaches in patients with acute myeloid leukemia aged 40-60 years.

The preferred type of post-remission therapy (PRT) in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR1) is a subject of continued debate, especially in patients at higher risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM), including patients >40 years of age. We report results of a time-dependent multivariable analysis of allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) (n=337) versus chemotherapy (n=271) or autologous HSCT (autoHSCT) (n=152) in 760 patients aged 40-60 years with AML in CR1. Patients receiving alloHSCT showed improved overall survival (OS) as compared with chemotherapy (respectively, 57±3% vs 40±3% at 5 years, P<0.001). Comparable OS was observed following alloHSCT and autoHSCT in patients with intermediate-risk AML (60±4 vs 54±5%). However, alloHSCT was associated with less relapse (hazard ratio (HR) 0.51, P<0.001) and better relapse-free survival (RFS) (HR 0.74, P=0.029) as compared with autoHSCT in intermediate-risk AMLs. AlloHSCT was applied following myeloablative conditioning (n=157) or reduced intensity conditioning (n=180), resulting in less NRM, but comparable outcome with respect to OS, RFS and relapse. Collectively, these results show that alloHSCT is to be preferred over chemotherapy as PRT in patients with intermediate- and poor-risk AML aged 40-60 years, whereas autoHSCT remains a treatment option to be considered in patients with intermediate-risk AML.Leukemia advance online publication, 23 December 2014; doi:10.1038/leu.2014.332.

Von Willebrand Factor Improves Risk Prediction in Addition to N-Terminal Pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Patients Referred to Coronary Angiography and Signs and Symptoms of Heart Failure and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) represents a growing health burden associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. Consequently, risk prediction is of highest importance. Endothelial dysfunction has been recently shown to play an important role in the complex pathophysiology of HFpEF. We therefore aimed to assess von Willebrand factor (vWF), a marker of endothelial damage, as potential biomarker for risk assessment in patients with HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS Concentrations of vWF were assessed in 457 patients with HFpEF enrolled as part of the LUdwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. All-cause mortality was observed in 40% of patients during a median follow-up time of 9.7 years. vWF significantly predicted mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) per increase of 1 SD of 1.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.68; P<0.001) and remained a significant predictor after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), renal function, and frequent HFpEF-related comorbidities (adjusted HR per 1 SD, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.42; P=0.001). Most notably, vWF showed additional prognostic value beyond that achievable with NT-proBNP indicated by improvements in C-Statistic (vWF×NT-proBNP: 0.65 versus NT-proBNP: 0.63; P for comparison, 0.004) and category-free net reclassification index (37.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS vWF is an independent predictor of long-term outcome in patients with HFpEF, which is in line with endothelial dysfunction as potential mediator in the pathophysiology of HFpEF. In particular, combined assessment of vWF and NT-proBNP improved risk prediction in this vulnerable group of patients.

Predicting prostate cancer-specific outcome after radical prostatectomy among men with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa: a multi-institutional outcome study of 266 patients

BACKGROUND The value of radical prostatectomy (RP) as an approach for very high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients is controversial. To examine the risk of 10-year cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM) according to clinical and pathological characteristics of very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa patients treated with RP as the primary treatment option. METHODS In a multi-institutional cohort, 266 patients with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa treated with RP were identified. All patients underwent RP and pelvic lymph-node dissection. Competing-risk analyses assessed 10-year CSM and OCM before and after stratification for age and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). RESULTS Overall, 34 (13%) patients died from PCa and 73 (28%) from OCM. Ten-year CSM and OCM rates ranged from 5.6% to 12.9% and from 10% to 38%, respectively. OCM was the leading cause of death in all subgroups. Age and comorbidities were the main determinants of OCM. In healthy men, CSM rate did not differ among age groups (10-year CSM rate for ⩽64, 65-69 and ⩾70 years: 16.2%, 11.5% and 17.1%, respectively). Men with a CCI ⩾1 showed a very low risk of CSM irrespective of age (10-year CSM: 5.6-6.1%), whereas the 10-year OCM rates increased with age up to 38% in men ⩾70 years. CONCLUSION Very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa represents a heterogeneous group. We revealed overall low CSM rates despite the highly unfavorable clinical disease. For healthy men, CSM was independent of age, supporting RP even for older men. Conversely, less healthy patients had the highest risk of dying from OCM while sharing very low risk of CSM, indicating that this group might not benefit from an aggressive surgical treatment. Outcome after RP as the primary treatment option in cT3b/4 PCa patients is related to age and comorbidity status.