An Urn Model for Cascading Failures on a Lattice

A cascading failure is a failure in a system of interconnected parts, in which the breakdown of one element can lead to the subsequent collapse of the others. The aim of this paper is to introduce a simple combinatorial model for the study of cascading failures. In particular, having in mind particle systems and Markov random fields, we take into consideration a network of interacting urns displaced over a lattice. Every urn is Pólya-like and its reinforcement matrix is not only a function of time (time contagion) but also of the behavior of the neighboring urns (spatial contagion), and of a random component, which can represent either simple fate or the impact of exogenous factors. In this way a non-trivial dependence structure among the urns is built, and it is used to study default avalanches over the lattice. Thanks to its flexibility and its interesting probabilistic properties, the given construction may be used to model different phenomena characterized by cascading failures such as power grids and financial networks.

Estimating the number of motor units using random sums with independently thinned terms

The problem of estimating the numbers of motor units N in a muscle is embedded in a general stochastic model using the notion of thinning from point process theory. In the paper a new moment type estimator for the numbers of motor units in a muscle is denned, which is derived using random sums with independently thinned terms. Asymptotic normality of the estimator is shown and its practical value is demonstrated with bootstrap and approximative confidence intervals for a data set from a 31-year-old healthy right-handed, female volunteer. Moreover simulation results are presented and Monte-Carlo based quantiles, means, and variances are calculated for N in{300,600,1000}.

Ventricular-arterial coupling in a rat model of reduced arterial compliance provoked by hypervitaminosis D and nicotine

The vitamin D(3) and nicotine (VDN) model is one of isolated systolic hypertension (ISH) in which arterial calcification raises arterial stiffness and vascular impedance. The effects of VDN treatment on arterial and cardiac hemodynamics have been investigated; however, a complete analysis of ventricular-arterial interaction is lacking. Wistar rats were treated with VDN (VDN group, n = 9), and a control group (n = 10) was included without the VDN. At week 8, invasive indexes of cardiac function were obtained using a conductance catheter. Simultaneously, aortic pressure and flow were measured to derive vascular impedance and characterize ventricular-vascular interaction. VDN caused significant increases in systolic (138 +/- 6 vs. 116 +/- 13 mmHg, P < 0.01) and pulse (42 +/- 10 vs. 26 +/- 4 mmHg, P < 0.01) pressures with respect to control. Total arterial compliance decreased (0.12 +/- 0.08 vs. 0.21 +/- 0.04 ml/mmHg in control, P < 0.05), and pulse wave velocity increased significantly (8.8 +/- 2.5 vs. 5.1 +/- 2.0 m/s in control, P < 0.05). The arterial elastance and end-systolic elastance rose significantly in the VDN group (P < 0.05). Wave reflection was augmented in the VDN group, as reflected by the increase in the wave reflection coefficient (0.63 +/- 0.06 vs. 0.52 +/- 0.05 in control, P < 0.05) and the amplitude of the reflected pressure wave (13.3 +/- 3.1 vs. 8.4 +/- 1.0 mmHg in control, P < 0.05). We studied ventricular-arterial coupling in a VDN-induced rat model of reduced arterial compliance. The VDN treatment led to development of ISH and provoked alterations in cardiac function, arterial impedance, arterial function, and ventricular-arterial interaction, which in many aspects are similar to effects of an aged and stiffened arterial tree.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Orthotopic transplantation of v-src-expressing glioma cell lines into immunocompetent mice: establishment of a new transplantable in vivo model for malignant glioma

OBJECT: The aim of this study was to develop and characterize a new orthotopic, syngeneic, transplantable mouse brain tumor model by using the cell lines Tu-9648 and Tu-2449, which were previously isolated from tumors that arose spontaneously in glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)-v-src transgenic mice. METHODS: Striatal implantation of a 1-microl suspension of 5000 to 10,000 cells from either clone into syngeneic B6C3F1 mice resulted in tumors that were histologically identified as malignant gliomas. Prior subcutaneous inoculations with irradiated autologous cells inhibited the otherwise robust development of a microscopically infiltrating malignant glioma. Untreated mice with implanted tumor cells were killed 12 days later, when the resultant gliomas were several millimeters in diameter. Immunohistochemically, the gliomas displayed both the astroglial marker GFAP and the oncogenic form of signal transducer and activator of transcription-3 (Stat3). This form is called tyrosine-705 phosphorylated Stat3, and is found in many malignant entities, including human gliomas. Phosphorylated Stat3 was particularly prominent, not only in the nucleus but also in the plasma membrane of peripherally infiltrating glioma cells, reflecting persistent overactivation of the Janus kinase/Stat3 signal transduction pathway. The Tu-2449 cells exhibited three non-random structural chromosomal aberrations, including a deletion of the long arm of chromosome 2 and an apparently balanced translocation between chromosomes 1 and 3. The GFAP-v-src transgene was mapped to the pericentromeric region of chromosome 18. CONCLUSIONS: The high rate of engraftment, the similarity to the high-grade malignant glioma of origin, and the rapid, locally invasive growth of these tumors should make this murine model useful in testing novel therapies for human malignant gliomas.

Exogenous surfactant application in a rat lung ischemia reperfusion injury model: effects on edema formation and alveolar type II cells

BACKGROUND: Prophylactic exogenous surfactant therapy is a promising way to attenuate the ischemia and reperfusion (I/R) injury associated with lung transplantation and thereby to decrease the clinical occurrence of acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. However, there is little information on the mode by which exogenous surfactant attenuates I/R injury of the lung. We hypothesized that exogenous surfactant may act by limiting pulmonary edema formation and by enhancing alveolar type II cell and lamellar body preservation. Therefore, we investigated the effect of exogenous surfactant therapy on the formation of pulmonary edema in different lung compartments and on the ultrastructure of the surfactant producing alveolar epithelial type II cells. METHODS: Rats were randomly assigned to a control, Celsior (CE) or Celsior + surfactant (CE+S) group (n = 5 each). In both Celsior groups, the lungs were flush-perfused with Celsior and subsequently exposed to 4 h of extracorporeal ischemia at 4 degrees C and 50 min of reperfusion at 37 degrees C. The CE+S group received an intratracheal bolus of a modified natural bovine surfactant at a dosage of 50 mg/kg body weight before flush perfusion. After reperfusion (Celsior groups) or immediately after sacrifice (Control), the lungs were fixed by vascular perfusion and processed for light and electron microscopy. Stereology was used to quantify edematous changes as well as alterations of the alveolar epithelial type II cells. RESULTS: Surfactant treatment decreased the intraalveolar edema formation (mean (coefficient of variation): CE: 160 mm3 (0.61) vs. CE+S: 4 mm3 (0.75); p < 0.05) and the development of atelectases (CE: 342 mm3 (0.90) vs. CE+S: 0 mm3; p < 0.05) but led to a higher degree of peribronchovascular edema (CE: 89 mm3 (0.39) vs. CE+S: 268 mm3 (0.43); p < 0.05). Alveolar type II cells were similarly swollen in CE (423 microm3(0.10)) and CE+S (481 microm3(0.10)) compared with controls (323 microm3(0.07); p < 0.05 vs. CE and CE+S). The number of lamellar bodies was increased and the mean lamellar body volume was decreased in both CE groups compared with the control group (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Intratracheal surfactant application before I/R significantly reduces the intraalveolar edema formation and development of atelectases but leads to an increased development of peribronchovascular edema. Morphological changes of alveolar type II cells due to I/R are not affected by surfactant treatment. The beneficial effects of exogenous surfactant therapy are related to the intraalveolar activity of the exogenous surfactant.

Adenovirus-mediated transforming growth factor-beta ameliorates ischemic necrosis of epigastric skin flaps in a rat model

BACKGROUND: Gene therapy has been recently introduced as a novel approach to treat ischemic tissues by using the angiogenic potential of certain growth factors. We investigated the effect of adenovirus-mediated gene therapy with transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) delivered into the subdermal space to treat ischemically challenged epigastric skin flaps in a rat model. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A pilot study was conducted in a group of 5 animals pretreated with Ad-GFP and expression of green fluorescent protein in the skin flap sections was demonstrated under fluorescence microscopy at 2, 4, and 7 days after the treatment, indicating a successful transfection of the skin flaps following subdermal gene therapy. Next, 30 male Sprague Dawley rats were divided into 3 groups of 10 rats each. An epigastric skin flap model, based solely on the right inferior epigastric vessels, was used as the model in this study. Rats received subdermal injections of adenovirus encoding TGF-beta (Ad-TGF-beta) or green fluorescent protein (Ad-GFP) as treatment control. The third group (n = 10) received saline and served as a control group. A flap measuring 8 x 8 cm was outlined on the abdominal skin extending from the xiphoid process proximally and the pubic region distally, to the anterior axillary lines bilaterally. Just prior to flap elevation, the injections were given subdermally in the left upper corner of the flap. The flap was then sutured back to its bed. Flap viability was evaluated seven days after the initial operation. Digital images of the epigastric flaps were taken and areas of necrotic zones relative to total flap surface area were measured and expressed as percentages by using a software program. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in mean percent surviving area between the Ad-TGF-beta group and the two other control groups (P < 0.05). (Ad-TGF-beta: 90.3 +/- 4.0% versus Ad-GFP: 82.2 +/- 8.7% and saline group: 82.6 +/- 4.3%.) CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the authors were able to demonstrate that adenovirus-mediated gene therapy using TGF-beta ameliorated ischemic necrosis in an epigastric skin flap model, as confirmed by significant reduction in the necrotic zones of the flap. The results of this study raise the possibility of using adenovirus-mediated TGF-beta gene therapy to promote perfusion in random portion of skin flaps, especially in high-risk patients.