109 resultados para Probability of fixation
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Aim of the present study was to evaluate migration rates of cementless primary hemiarthroplasty in acute femoral neck fractures. In a longitudinal, prospective study 46 patients were treated by cementless hemiarthroplasty. Clinical follow up was correlated with the EBRA-FCA method. In 30% of all patients stem migration amounted to more than 2 mm; further, these patients were seen to have a high level of activity. A high degree of migration in more than 30% of all patients requires critical scepticism toward further use of the investigated cementless stem as hemiarthroplasty. According to literature, migration of more than 2 mm suggests a high probability of early aseptic loosening. In patients with a low degree of activity good results could be observed; nevertheless, in patients with a high level of activity the combination of the investigated cementless stem with a solid fracture head cannot be recommended.
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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the influence of secondary infection on major amputation in chronic critical leg ischemia (CLI). DESIGN: Prospective, controlled observational study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty-seven patients with CLI and ischemic lesions participated in the study. Presence of infection was defined by clinical, laboratory and radiological criteria. Patients were categorized as having no local infection, soft tissue infection or osteomyelitis treated without antibiotics, amoxicillin/clavulanacid for 1 month or ciprofloxacin and clindamycin for 3 months, respectively. Clinical outcome was assessed at 2, 6 and 12 months. Study endpoints were major amputation and mortality. Analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Forty-seven of 67 patients had a local infection. Major amputation was lower in patients with successful revascularization as compared to patients unsuitable for or with failed (without) revascularization (0% vs 26%, p<0.01). In patients with successful revascularization the probability of complete healing was lower with secondary infection (23% vs 71%, p=0.03). In patients without revascularization complete healing was rare (<10%), but secondary infection did not influenced major amputation, mortality or serious adverse events. CONCLUSION: Secondary infection reduces the likelihood of successful healing following revascularisation of CLI.
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AIM: To explore the impact of bacterial load and microbial colonization patterns on the clinical outcomes of periodontal surgery at deep intrabony defects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred and twenty-two patients with advanced chronic periodontitis and at least one intrabony defect of >3 mm were recruited in 10 centres. Before recruitment, the infection control phase of periodontal therapy was completed. After surgical access and debridement, the regenerative material was applied in the test subjects, and omitted in the controls. At baseline and 1 year following the interventions, clinical attachment levels (CAL), pocket probing depths (PPD), recession (REC), full-mouth plaque scores and full-mouth bleeding scores were assessed. Microbial colonization of the defect-associated pocket was assessed using a DNA-DNA checkerboard analysis. RESULTS: Total bacterial load and counts of red complex bacteria were negatively associated with CAL gains 1 year following treatment. The probability of achieving above median CAL gains (>3 mm) was significantly decreased by higher total bacterial counts, higher red complex and T. forsythensis counts immediately before surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Presence of high bacterial load and specific periodontal pathogen complexes in deep periodontal pockets associated with intrabony defects had a significant negative impact on the 1 year outcome of surgical/regenerative treatment.
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OBJECTIVE: To review the accuracy of electrocardiography in screening for left ventricular hypertrophy in patients with hypertension. DESIGN: Systematic review of studies of test accuracy of six electrocardiographic indexes: the Sokolow-Lyon index, Cornell voltage index, Cornell product index, Gubner index, and Romhilt-Estes scores with thresholds for a positive test of > or =4 points or > or =5 points. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases ((Pre-)Medline, Embase), reference lists of relevant studies and previous reviews, and experts. STUDY SELECTION: Two reviewers scrutinised abstracts and examined potentially eligible studies. Studies comparing the electrocardiographic index with echocardiography in hypertensive patients and reporting sufficient data were included. DATA EXTRACTION: Data on study populations, echocardiographic criteria, and methodological quality of studies were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS: Negative likelihood ratios, which indicate to what extent the posterior odds of left ventricular hypertrophy is reduced by a negative test, were calculated. RESULTS: 21 studies and data on 5608 patients were analysed. The median prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy was 33% (interquartile range 23-41%) in primary care settings (10 studies) and 65% (37-81%) in secondary care settings (11 studies). The median negative likelihood ratio was similar across electrocardiographic indexes, ranging from 0.85 (range 0.34-1.03) for the Romhilt-Estes score (with threshold > or =4 points) to 0.91 (0.70-1.01) for the Gubner index. Using the Romhilt-Estes score in primary care, a negative electrocardiogram result would reduce the typical pre-test probability from 33% to 31%. In secondary care the typical pre-test probability of 65% would be reduced to 63%. CONCLUSION: Electrocardiographic criteria should not be used to rule out left ventricular hypertrophy in patients with hypertension.
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During two survey rounds of a national surveillance system for infectious diseases in wild boar in Switzerland, each lasting four months from November to February, between 2001 and 2003, 1949 blood samples and 62 tissue samples from the spleen and 50 from the reproductive organs were collected from hunted wild boar. The survey was designed so that freedom from infection could be detected with a probability of 95 per cent at a threshold prevalence of less than 1 per cent for classical swine fever and Aujeszky's disease and less than 1.5 per cent for brucellosis. There was no serological evidence of classical swine fever or Aujeszky's disease, but brucellosis due to Brucella suis biovar 2 was confirmed serologically and by bacterial isolation.
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BACKGROUND: The sensory drive hypothesis predicts that divergent sensory adaptation in different habitats may lead to premating isolation upon secondary contact of populations. Speciation by sensory drive has traditionally been treated as a special case of speciation as a byproduct of adaptation to divergent environments in geographically isolated populations. However, if habitats are heterogeneous, local adaptation in the sensory systems may cause the emergence of reproductively isolated species from a single unstructured population. In polychromatic fishes, visual sensitivity might become adapted to local ambient light regimes and the sensitivity might influence female preferences for male nuptial color. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of speciation by sensory drive as a byproduct of divergent visual adaptation within a single initially unstructured population. We use models based on explicit genetic mechanisms for color vision and nuptial coloration. RESULTS: We show that in simulations in which the adaptive evolution of visual pigments and color perception are explicitly modeled, sensory drive can promote speciation along a short selection gradient within a continuous habitat and population. We assumed that color perception evolves to adapt to the modal light environment that individuals experience and that females prefer to mate with males whose nuptial color they are most sensitive to. In our simulations color perception depends on the absorption spectra of an individual's visual pigments. Speciation occurred most frequently when the steepness of the environmental light gradient was intermediate and dispersal distance of offspring was relatively small. In addition, our results predict that mutations that cause large shifts in the wavelength of peak absorption promote speciation, whereas we did not observe speciation when peak absorption evolved by stepwise mutations with small effect. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that speciation can occur where environmental gradients create divergent selection on sensory modalities that are used in mate choice. Evidence for such gradients exists from several animal groups, and from freshwater and marine fishes in particular. The probability of speciation in a continuous population under such conditions may then critically depend on the genetic architecture of perceptual adaptation and female mate choice.
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Background Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration) exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration). Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are generally portrayed as amphibians with low migratory activity. Our study uses demographic analysis as a key to unravel whether emigration or mortality is the main cause of "losses" from the population. In particular, we use the analysis to challenge the common belief that terrestrial salamanders show low migratory activity. Results The mark-recapture analysis of adult salamanders showed that monthly survival was high (> 90%) without a seasonal pattern. These estimates, however, translate into rather low rates of local annual survival of only ~40% and suggest that emigration was important. The estimated probability of emigration was 49%. Conclusion Our analysis shows that terrestrial salamanders exhibit more migratory activity than commonly thought. This may be due either because the spatial extent of salamander populations is underestimated or because there is a substantial exchange of individuals between populations. Our current results are in line with several other studies that suggest high migratory activity in amphibians. In particular, many amphibian populations may be characterized by high proportions of transients and/or floaters.
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BACKGROUND: During paravertebral block, the anterolateral limit of the paravertebral space, which consists of the pleura, should preferably not be perforated. Also it is possible that, during the block, the constant superior costotransverse ligament can be missed in the loss-of-resistance technique. We therefore aimed to develop a new technique for an ultrasound-guided puncture of the paravertebral space. METHODS: We performed 20 punctures and catheter placements in 10 human cadavers. A sonographic view showing the pleura and the superior costotransverse ligament was obtained with a slightly oblique scan using a curved array transducer. After inline approach, injection of 10 ml normal saline confirmed the correct position of the needle tip, distended the space, and enabled catheter insertion. The spread of contrast dye injected through the catheters was assessed by CT scans. RESULTS: The superior costotransverse ligament and the paravertebral space were easy to identify. The needle tip reached the paravertebral space without problems under visualization. In contrast, the introduction of the catheter was difficult. The CT scan revealed a correct paravertebral spread of contrast in 11 cases. Out of the remaining, one catheter was found in the pleural space, in six cases there was an epidural, and in two cases there was a prevertebral spread of contrast dye. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully developed a technique for an accurate ultrasound-guided puncture of the paravertebral space. We also showed that when a catheter is introduced through the needle with the tip lying in the paravertebral space, there is a high probability of catheter misplacement into the epidural, mediastinal, or pleural spaces.
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Although current concepts of anterior femoroacetabular impingement predict damage in the labrum and the cartilage, the actual joint damage has not been verified by computer simulation. We retrospectively compared the intraoperative locations of labral and cartilage damage of 40 hips during surgical dislocation for cam or pincer type femoroacetabular impingement (Group I) with the locations of femoroacetabular impingement in 15 additional hips using computer simulation (Group II). We found no difference between the mean locations of the chondrolabral damage of Group I and the computed impingement zone of Group II. The standard deviation was larger for measures of articular damage from Group I in comparison to the computed values of Group II. The most severe hip damage occurred at the zone of highest probability of femoroacetabular impact, typically in the anterosuperior quadrant of the acetabulum for both cam and pincer type femoroacetabular impingements. However, the extent of joint damage along the acetabular rim was larger intraoperatively than that observed on the images of the 3-D joint simulations. We concluded femoroacetabular impingement mechanism contributes to early osteoarthritis including labral lesions. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, diagnostic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
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OBJECTIVE: To analyse the early loss of patients to antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in resource-limited settings. METHODS: Using data on 5491 adult patients starting ART (median age 35 years, 46% female) in 15 treatment programmes in Africa, Asia and South America with (3) 12 months of follow-up, we investigated risk factors for no follow-up after treatment initiation, and loss to follow-up or death in the first 6 months. FINDINGS: Overall, 211 patients (3.8%) had no follow-up, 880 (16.0%) were lost to follow-up and 141 (2.6%) were known to have died in the first 6 months. The probability of no follow-up was higher in 2003-2004 than in 2000 or earlier (odds ratio, OR: 5.06; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.28-20.0), as was loss to follow-up (hazard ratio, HR: 7.62; 95% CI: 4.55-12.8) but not recorded death (HR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.44-2.36). Compared with a baseline CD4-cell count (3) 50 cells/microl, a count < 25 cells/microl was associated with a higher probability of no follow-up (OR: 2.49; 95% CI: 1.43-4.33), loss to follow-up (HR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.23-1.77) and death (HR: 3.34; 95% CI: 2.10-5.30). Compared to free treatment, fee-for-service programmes were associated with a higher probability of no follow-up (OR: 3.71; 95% CI: 0.97-16.05) and higher mortality (HR: 4.64; 95% CI: 1.11-19.41). CONCLUSION: Early patient losses were increasingly common when programmes were scaled up and were associated with a fee for service and advanced immunodeficiency at baseline. Measures to maximize ART programme retention are required in resource-poor countries.
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BACKGROUND: Little is known about time trends, predictors, and consequences of changes made to antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens early after patients initially start treatment. METHODS: We compared the incidence of, reasons for, and predictors of treatment change within 1 year after starting combination ART (cART), as well as virological and immunological outcomes at 1 year, among 1866 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who initiated cART during 2000--2001, 2002--2003, or 2004--2005. RESULTS: The durability of initial regimens did not improve over time (P = .15): 48.8% of 625 patients during 2000--2001, 43.8% of 607 during 2002--2003, and 44.3% of 634 during 2004--2005 changed cART within 1 year; reasons for change included intolerance (51.1% of all patients), patient wish (15.4%), physician decision (14.8%), and virological failure (7.1%). An increased probability of treatment change was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, larger human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA loads, and receipt of regimens that contained stavudine or indinavir/ritonavir, but a decreased probability was associated with receipt of regimens that contained tenofovir. Treatment discontinuation was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, current use of injection drugs, and receipt of regimens that contained nevirapine. One-year outcomes improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005: 84.5% and 92.7% of patients, respectively, reached HIV-1 RNA loads of <50 copies/mL and achieved median increases in CD4+ cell counts of 157.5 and 197.5 cells/microL, respectively (P < .001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Virological and immunological outcomes of initial treatments improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005, irrespective of uniformly high rates of early changes in treatment across the 3 study intervals.
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OBJECTIVES: The incidence distribution of triage advice in the medical call centre Medi24 and the pattern of service utilisation were analysed with respect to two groups of callers with different insurance schemes. Individuals having contracted insurance of the Medi24 model could use the telephone consultation service of the medical call centre Medi24 (mainly part of the mandatory basic health insurance) voluntarily and free of charge whereas individuals holding an insurance policy of the Telmed model (special contract within the mandatory basic health insurance with a premium discount ranging from 8% to 12%) were obliged to have a telephone consultation before arranging an appointment with a medical doctor. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in the medical call centre Medi24 based on all triage datasets of the Medi24 and Telmed groups collected during the one year period from July 1st 2005 to June 30th 2006. The distribution of the six different urgency levels within the two groups and their respective pattern of service utilisation was determined. In a multivariable logistic regression model the Odds Ratio for every enquiry originating from the Telmed group versus those originating from the Medi24 group was calculated. RESULTS: During a one-year period 48 388 triage requests reached the medical call centre Medi24, 56% derived from the Telmed group and 44% from the Medi24 group. Within the Medi24 group more than 25% of the individuals received self-care advice, within the Telmed group, on the other hand, only about 18% received such advice. In contrast, 27% of the Telmed triage requests but only 18% of the Medi24 triage requests resulted in the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor. The probability that an individual of the Telmed group obtained the advice to go to the accident and emergency department was lower than for an individual of the Medi24 group (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60-0.99). Likewise, the probability of self-care advice was decreased in regard to the Medi24 group (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.85). However, regarding the advice to make a routine appointment with a medical doctor, the Telmed group was represented more frequently than the Medi24 group (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.28-1.44). CONCLUSION: In respect of the triage advice, the Telmed group differed significantly from the Medi24 group within all urgency levels. The differences between the two groups in respect of the advice given were still less pronounced than expected against the background of their different contract conditions and the disparate temporal pattern of utilisation. We interprete this finding with the fact that appraising the urgency of health problems appropriately seems to be very difficult for the majority of people seeking advice.
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BACKGROUND: Because of the growing life expectancy in developed countries and the exponential increase in vision loss with increasing age, a growing number of elderly persons will eventually suffer from visual impairment and blindness. This paper describes the association between self-reported vision and well-being in individuals aged 50 years and older and their families. METHODS: Using binary logistic regressions on data from the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we analysed the association between self-reported corrected vision in general, corrected distance vision and corrected reading vision on 11 variables capturing emotional well-being, future hopes and perspectives, and concentration on daily activities. RESULTS: For 22,486 individuals from 10 European countries, aged 64.23 +/- 10.52 years, lower vision was associated with a highly significant negative impact on all measured aspects of well-being. CONCLUSIONS: These data from a large population base in Europe provide evidence that persons with low vision have a higher probability of concentration problems during reading and entertainment; losing interest and enjoyment in their activities; feeling fatigued, irritable, sad, and tearful; having less hope for the future; and wishing for death. Effective measures of early detection, prevention, rehabilitation, education and research, as well as a holistic view of a patient, could help counter these problems, thereby improving mental and physical health and reducing the economic impact of low vision.
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Larger body parts are somatotopically represented in the primary motor cortex (M1), while smaller body parts, such as the fingers, have partially overlapping representations. The principles that govern the overlapping organization of M1 remain unclear. We used transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to examine the cortical encoding of thumb movements in M1 of healthy humans. We performed M1 mapping of the probability of inducing a thumb movement in a particular direction and used low intensity TMS to disturb a voluntary thumb movement in the same direction during a reaction time task. With both techniques we found spatially segregated representations of the direction of TMS-induced thumb movements, thumb flexion and extension being best separated. Furthermore, the cortical regions corresponding to activation of a thumb muscle differ, depending on whether the muscle functions as agonist or as antagonist for flexion or extension. In addition, we found in the reaction time experiment that the direction of a movement is processed in M1 before the muscles participating in it are activated. It thus appears that one of the organizing principles for the human corticospinal motor system is based on a spatially segregated representation of movement directions and that the representation of individual somatic structures, such as the hand muscles, overlap.
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OBJECTIVES: To investigate delayed HIV diagnosis and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Two sub-populations were included: 1915 patients with HIV diagnosis from 1998 to 2007 and within 3 months of cohort registration (group A), and 1730 treatment-naïve patients with CD4>or=200 cells/microL before their second cohort visit (group B). In group A, predictors for low initial CD4 cell counts were examined with a median regression. In group B, we studied predictors for CD4<200 cells/microL without ART despite cohort follow-up. RESULTS: Median initial CD4 cell count in group A was 331 cells/microL; 31% and 10% were <200 and <50 cells/microL, respectively. Risk factors for low CD4 count were age and non-White race. Homosexual transmission, intravenous drug use and living alone were protective. In group B, 30% initiated ART with CD4>or=200 cells/microL; 18% and 2% dropped to CD4 <200 and <50 cells/microL without ART, respectively. Sub-Saharan origin was associated with lower probability of CD4 <200 cells/microL without ART during follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 207 and 253 cells/microL in groups A and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CD4<200 cells/microL and, particularly, CD4<50 cells/microL before starting ART are predominantly caused by late presentation. Earlier HIV diagnosis is paramount.