A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

High proportion of healthcare-associated urinary tract infection in the absence of prior exposure to urinary catheter: a cross-sectional study

Exposure to urinary catheters is considered the most important risk factor for healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (UTI) and is associated with significant morbidity and substantial extra-costs. In this study, we assessed the impact of urinary catheterisation (UC) on symptomatic healthcare-associated UTI among hospitalized patients.

A rapid microbiopsy system to improve the preservation of biological samples prior to high-pressure freezing

A microbiopsy system for fast excision and transfer of biological specimens from donor to high-pressure freezer was developed. With a modified, commercially available, Promag 1.2 biopsy gun, tissue samples can be excised with a size small enough (0.6 mm x 1.2 mm x 0.3 mm) to be easily transferred into a newly designed specimen platelet. A self-made transfer unit allows fast transfer of the specimen from the needle into the specimen platelet. The platelet is then fixed in a commercially available specimen holder of a high-pressure freezing machine (EM PACT, Leica Microsystems, Vienna, Austria) and frozen therein. The time required by a well-instructed (but not experienced) person to execute all steps is in the range of half a minute. This period is considered short enough to maintain the excised tissue pieces close to their native state. We show that a range of animal tissues (liver, brain, kidney and muscle) are well preserved. To prove the quality of freezing achieved with the system, we show vitrified ivy leaves high-pressure frozen in the new specimen platelet.

Social relationship correlates of major depressive disorder and depressive symptoms in Switzerland: nationally representative cross sectional study

BACKGROUND The quality and quantity of social relationships are associated with depression but there is less evidence regarding which aspects of social relationship are most predictive. We evaluated the relative magnitude and independence of the association of four social relationship domains with major depressive disorder and depressive symptoms. METHODS We analyzed a cross-sectional telephone interview and postal survey of a probability sample of adults living in Switzerland (N = 12,286). Twelve-month major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview over the telephone using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The postal survey assessed depressive symptoms as well as variables representing emotional support, tangible support, social integration, and loneliness. RESULTS Each individual social relationship domain was associated with both outcome measures, but in multivariate models being lonely and perceiving unmet emotional support had the largest and most consistent associations across depression outcomes (incidence rate ratios ranging from 1.55-9.97 for loneliness and from 1.23-1.40 for unmet support, p's < 0.05). All social relationship domains except marital status were independently associated with depressive symptoms whereas only loneliness and unmet support were associated with depressive disorder. CONCLUSIONS Perceived quality and frequency of social relationships are associated with clinical depression and depressive symptoms across a wide adult age spectrum. This study extends prior work linking loneliness to depression by showing that a broad range of social relationship domains are associated with psychological well-being.

Sizing up your enemy: individual predation vulnerability predicts migratory probability

Partial migration, in which a fraction of a population migrate and the rest remain resident, occurs in an extensive range of species and can have powerful ecological consequences. The question of what drives differences in individual migratory tendency is a contentious one. It has been shown that the timing of partial migration is based upon a trade-off between seasonal fluctuations in predation risk and growth potential. Phenotypic variation in either individual predation risk or growth potential should thus mediate the strength of the trade-off and ultimately predict patterns of partial migration at the individual level (i.e. which individuals migrate and which remain resident). We provide cross-population empirical support for the importance of one component of this model—individual predation risk—in predicting partial migration in wild populations of bream Abramis brama, a freshwater fish. Smaller, high-risk individuals migrate with a higher probability than larger, low-risk individuals, and we suggest that predation risk maintains size-dependent partial migration in this system.

The Effect Of Misleading Prior Information On The Subjective Visual Vertical

When tilted sideways participants misperceive the visual vertical assessed by means of a luminous line in otherwise complete dark- ness. A recent modeling approach (De Vrijer et al., 2009) claimed that these typical patterns of errors (known as A- and E-effects) could be explained by as- suming that participants behave in a Bayes optimal manner. In this study, we experimentally manipulate participants’ prior information about body-in-space orientation and measure the effect of this manipulation on the subjective visual vertical (SVV). Specifically, we explore the effects of veridical and misleading instructions about body tilt orientations on the SVV. We used a psychophys- ical 2AFC SVV task at roll tilt angles of 0 degrees, 16 degrees and 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants were tilted to 4 degrees under different instruction conditions: in one condition, participants received veridical instructions as to their tilt angle, whereas in another condition, participants received the mis- leading instruction that their body position was perfectly upright. Our results indicate systematic differences between the instruction conditions at 4 degrees CW and CCW. Participants did not simply use an ego-centric reference frame in the misleading condition; instead, participants’ estimates of the SVV seem to lie between their head’s Z-axis and the estimate of the SVV as measured in the veridical condition. All participants displayed A-effects at roll tilt an- gles of 16 degrees CW and CCW. We discuss our results in the context of the Bayesian model by De Vrijer et al. (2009), and claim that this pattern of re- sults is consistent with a manipulation of precision of a prior distribution over body-in-space orientations. Furthermore, we introduce a Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for estimating parameters of participants’ psychometric function, which allows us to jointly estimate group level and individual level parameters under all experimental conditions simultaneously, rather than relying on the traditional two-step approach to obtaining group level parameter estimates.

Safety and Feasibility of a Diagnostic Algorithm Combining Clinical Probability, d-Dimer Testing, and Ultrasonography for Suspected Upper Extremity Deep Venous Thrombosis: A Prospective Management Study.

BACKGROUND Although well-established for suspected lower limb deep venous thrombosis, an algorithm combining a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography has not been evaluated for suspected upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT). OBJECTIVE To assess the safety and feasibility of a new diagnostic algorithm in patients with clinically suspected UEDVT. DESIGN Diagnostic management study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01324037) SETTING: 16 hospitals in Europe and the United States. PATIENTS 406 inpatients and outpatients with suspected UEDVT. MEASUREMENTS The algorithm consisted of the sequential application of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography. Patients were first categorized as likely or unlikely to have UEDVT; in those with an unlikely score and normal d-dimer levels, UEDVT was excluded. All other patients had (repeated) compression ultrasonography. The primary outcome was the 3-month incidence of symptomatic UEDVT and pulmonary embolism in patients with a normal diagnostic work-up. RESULTS The algorithm was feasible and completed in 390 of the 406 patients (96%). In 87 patients (21%), an unlikely score combined with normal d-dimer levels excluded UEDVT. Superficial venous thrombosis and UEDVT were diagnosed in 54 (13%) and 103 (25%) patients, respectively. All 249 patients with a normal diagnostic work-up, including those with protocol violations (n = 16), were followed for 3 months. One patient developed UEDVT during follow-up, for an overall failure rate of 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0% to 2.2%). LIMITATIONS This study was not powered to show the safety of the substrategies. d-Dimer testing was done locally. CONCLUSION The combination of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography can safely and effectively exclude UEDVT. If confirmed by other studies, this algorithm has potential as a standard approach to suspected UEDVT. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE None.

Bounds for the probability generating functional of a Gibbs point process

We derive explicit lower and upper bounds for the probability generating functional of a stationary locally stable Gibbs point process, which can be applied to summary statistics such as the F function. For pairwise interaction processes we obtain further estimates for the G and K functions, the intensity, and higher-order correlation functions. The proof of the main result is based on Stein's method for Poisson point process approximation.

High-speed rotational atherectomy before paclitaxel-eluting stent implantation in complex calcified coronary lesions: the randomized ROTAXUS (Rotational Atherectomy Prior to Taxus Stent Treatment for Complex Native Coronary Artery Disease) trial

OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the effect of rotational atherectomy (RA) on drug-eluting stent (DES) effectiveness. BACKGROUND DES are frequently used in complex lesions, including calcified stenoses, which may challenge DES delivery, expansion, and effectiveness. RA can adequately modify calcified plaques and facilitate stent delivery and expansion. Its impact on DES effectiveness is widely unknown. METHODS The ROTAXUS (Rotational Atherectomy Prior to TAXUS Stent Treatment for Complex Native Coronary Artery Disease) study randomly assigned 240 patients with complex calcified native coronary lesions to RA followed by stenting (n = 120) or stenting without RA (n = 120, standard therapy group). Stenting was performed using a polymer-based slow-release paclitaxel-eluting stent. The primary endpoint was in-stent late lumen loss at 9 months. Secondary endpoints included angiographic and strategy success, binary restenosis, definite stent thrombosis, and major adverse cardiac events at 9 months. RESULTS Despite similar baseline characteristics, significantly more patients in the standard therapy group were crossed over (12.5% vs. 4.2%, p = 0.02), resulting in higher strategy success in the rotablation group (92.5% vs. 83.3%, p = 0.03). At 9 months, in-stent late lumen loss was higher in the rotablation group (0.44 ± 0.58 vs. 0.31 ± 0.52, p = 0.04), despite an initially higher acute lumen gain (1.56 ± 0.43 vs. 1.44 ± 0.49 mm, p = 0.01). In-stent binary restenosis (11.4% vs. 10.6%, p = 0.71), target lesion revascularization (11.7% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.84), definite stent thrombosis (0.8% vs. 0%, p = 1.0), and major adverse cardiac events (24.2% vs. 28.3%, p = 0.46) were similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS Routine lesion preparation using RA did not reduce late lumen loss of DES at 9 months. Balloon dilation with only provisional rotablation remains the default strategy for complex calcified lesions before DES implantation.

Effect of ticagrelor on the outcomes of patients with prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery: insights from the PLATelet inhibition and patient outcomes (PLATO) trial

BACKGROUND Patients with prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) who present with an acute coronary syndrome have a high risk for recurrent events. Whether intensive antiplatelet therapy with ticagrelor might be beneficial compared with clopidogrel is unknown. In this substudy of the PLATO trial, we studied the effects of randomized treatment dependent on history of CABG. METHODS Patients participating in PLATO were classified according to whether they had undergone prior CABG. The trial's primary and secondary end points were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS Of the 18,613 study patients, 1,133 (6.1%) had prior CABG. Prior-CABG patients had more high-risk characteristics at study entry and a 2-fold increase in clinical events during follow-up, but less major bleeding. The primary end point (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke) was reduced to a similar extent by ticagrelor among patients with (19.6% vs 21.4%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.91 [0.67, 1.24]) and without (9.2% vs 11.0%; adjusted HR, 0.86 [0.77, 0.96]; P(interaction) = .73) prior CABG. Major bleeding was similar with ticagrelor versus clopidogrel among patients with (8.1% vs 8.7%; adjusted HR, 0.89 [0.55, 1.47]) and without (11.8% vs 11.4%; HR, 1.08 [0.98, 1.20]; P(interaction) = .46) prior CABG. CONCLUSIONS Prior-CABG patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome are a high-risk cohort for death and recurrent cardiovascular events but have a lower risk for major bleeding. Similar to the results in no-prior-CABG patients, ticagrelor was associated with a reduction in ischemic events without an increase in major bleeding.