109 resultados para Predictive positive value
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BACKGROUND: Multislice computed tomography (MSCT) is a promising noninvasive method of detecting coronary artery disease (CAD). However, most data have been obtained in selected series of patients. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the accuracy of 64-slice MSCT (64 MSCT) in daily practice, without any patient selection. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using 64-slice MSCT coronary angiography (CTA), 69 consecutive patients, 39 (57%) of whom had previously undergone stent implantation, were evaluated. The mean heart rate during scan was 72 beats/min, scan time 13.6 s and the amount of contrast media 72 mL. The mean time span between invasive coronary angiography (ICAG) and CTA was 6 days. Significant stenosis was defined as a diameter reduction of > 50%. Of 966 segments, 884 (92%) were assessable. Compared with ICAG, the sensitivity of CTA to diagnose significant stenosis was 90%, specificity 94%, positive predictive value (PPV) 89% and negative predictive value (NPV) 95%. With regard to 58 stented lesions, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were 93%, 96%, 87% and 98%, respectively. On the patient-based analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of CTA to detect CAD were 98%, 86%, 98% and 86%, respectively. Eighty-two (8%) segments were not assessable because of irregular rhythm, calcification or tachycardia. CONCLUSION: Sixty-four-MSCT has a high accuracy for the detection of significant CAD in an unselected patient population and therefore can be considered as a valuable noninvasive technique.
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Because of the current controversy on the origin and clinical value of circulating KRAS codon 12 mutations in lung cancer, we screened 180 patients using a combined restriction fragment-length polymorphism and polymerase chain reaction (RFLP-PCR) assay. We detected KRAS mutations in 9% plasma samples and 0% matched lymphocytes. Plasma KRAS mutations correlated significantly with poor prognosis. We validated the positive results in a second laboratory by DNA sequencing and found matching codon 12 sequences in blood and tumor in 78% evaluable cases. These results support the notion that circulating KRAS mutations originate from tumors and are prognostically relevant in lung cancer.
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BACKGROUND: Aromatase inhibitors are considered standard adjuvant endocrine treatment of postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, but it remains uncertain whether aromatase inhibitors should be given upfront or sequentially with tamoxifen. Awaiting results from ongoing randomized trials, we examined prognostic factors of an early relapse among patients in the BIG 1-98 trial to aid in treatment choices. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Analyses included all 7707 eligible patients treated on BIG 1-98. The median follow-up was 2 years, and the primary end point was breast cancer relapse. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify prognostic factors. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-five patients (3.7%) had an early relapse (3.1% on letrozole, 4.4% on tamoxifen). Predictive factors for early relapse were node positivity (P < 0.001), absence of both receptors being positive (P < 0.001), high tumor grade (P < 0.001), HER-2 overexpression/amplification (P < 0.001), large tumor size (P = 0.001), treatment with tamoxifen (P = 0.002), and vascular invasion (P = 0.02). There were no significant interactions between treatment and the covariates, though letrozole appeared to provide a greater than average reduction in the risk of early relapse in patients with many involved lymph nodes, large tumors, and vascular invasion present. CONCLUSION: Upfront letrozole resulted in significantly fewer early relapses than tamoxifen, even after adjusting for significant prognostic factors.
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Approximate entropy (ApEn) of blood pressure (BP) can be easily measured based on software analysing 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), but the clinical value of this measure is unknown. In a prospective study we investigated whether ApEn of BP predicts, in addition to average and variability of BP, the risk of hypertensive crisis. In 57 patients with known hypertension we measured ApEn, average and variability of systolic and diastolic BP based on 24-h ABPM. Eight of these fifty-seven patients developed hypertensive crisis during follow-up (mean follow-up duration 726 days). In bivariate regression analysis, ApEn of systolic BP (P<0.01), average of systolic BP (P=0.02) and average of diastolic BP (P=0.03) were significant predictors of hypertensive crisis. The incidence rate ratio of hypertensive crisis was 14.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8, 631.5; P<0.01) for high ApEn of systolic BP as compared to low values. In multivariable regression analysis, ApEn of systolic (P=0.01) and average of diastolic BP (P<0.01) were independent predictors of hypertensive crisis. A combination of these two measures had a positive predictive value of 75%, and a negative predictive value of 91%, respectively. ApEn, combined with other measures of 24-h ABPM, is a potentially powerful predictor of hypertensive crisis. If confirmed in independent samples, these findings have major clinical implications since measures predicting the risk of hypertensive crisis define patients requiring intensive follow-up and intensified therapy.
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The aim of this study was to obtain comprehensive data on clinical presentation, microbiology, computed tomography, surgical findings and histology in acute, sub-acute and chronic mastoiditis. We performed a prospective, observational study in children under 16 years of age presenting to our institution during the 2-year period beginning in April 2000. The children were examined and their condition treated in accordance with a standardized protocol elaborated by the paediatric, otolaryngology (ORL) and radiology departments. Thirty-eight patients were hospitalized (22 with acute mastoiditis, seven with sub-acute mastoiditis, nine with chronic mastoiditis). There were 30 complications present in 21 patients (55%). Streptococcus pyogenes was the most common pathogen (7/24 cases), followed by Streptococcus pneumoniae (4/24 cases). Mastoid surgery was performed in 29 patients. Histology of mastoid tissue revealed predominantly acute inflammation in two cases, mixed acute/chronic inflammation in 19 cases and predominantly chronic inflammation in seven cases. Radiologic data were evaluated retrospectively. Spiral, volume-based high-resolution (HR) computed tomography (CT) of the temporal bone had a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 38%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 50% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% in detecting coalescence of mastoid trabeculae. Cranial CT with contrast had a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 94%, PPV of 80% and NPV of 94% in identifying intra-cranial extension. Conclusion: histological evidence suggests that sub-acute/chronic infection underlies not only sub-acute and chronic mastoiditis, but most cases of acute mastoiditis as well. HR-CT of the temporal bone is effective in ruling out coalescence. Cranial CT is valuable in identifying intra-cranial extension. Cranial and HR-CT are recommended in the examination of children with mastoiditis.
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Diabetic nephropathy and end-stage renal failure are still a major cause of mortality amongst patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). In this study, we evaluated the Clinitek-Microalbumin (CM) screening test strip for the detection of microalbuminuria (MA) in a random morning spot urine in comparison with the quantitative assessment of albuminuria in the timed overnight urine collection ("gold standard"). One hundred thirty-four children, adolescents, and young adults with insulin-dependent DM Type 1 were studied at 222 outpatient visits. Because of urinary tract infection and/or haematuria, the data of 13 visits were excluded. Finally, 165 timed overnight urine were collected in the remaining 209 visits (79% sample per visit rate). Ten (6.1%) patients presented MA of > or =15 microg/min. In comparison however, 200 spot urine could be screened (96% sample/visit rate) yielding a significant increase in compliance and screening rate (P<.001, McNemar test). Furthermore, at 156 occasions, the gold standard and CM could be directly compared. The sensitivity and the specificity for CM in the spot urine (cut-off > or =30 mg albumin/l) were 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.99] and 0.73 (CI 0.66-0.80), respectively. The positive and negative predictive value were 0.17 (CI 0.08-0.30) and 0.99 (CI 0.95-1.00), respectively. Considering CM albumin-to-creatinine ratio, the results were poorer than with the albumin concentration alone. Using CM instead of quantitative assessment of albuminuria is not cost-effective (35 US dollars versus 60 US dollars/patient/year). In conclusion, to exclude MA, the CM used in the random spot urine is reliable and easy to handle, but positive screening results of > or =30 mg albumin/l must be confirmed by analyses in the timed overnight collected urine. Although the screening compliance is improved, in terms of analysing random morning spot urine for MA, we cannot recommend CM in a paediatric diabetic outpatient setting because the specificity is far too low.
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INTRODUCTION: Cadaver dogs are known as valuable forensic tools in crime scene investigations. Scientific research attempting to verify their value is largely lacking, specifically for scents associated with the early postmortem interval. The aim of our investigation was the comparative evaluation of the reliability, accuracy, and specificity of three cadaver dogs belonging to the Hamburg State Police in the detection of scents during the early postmortem interval. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Carpet squares were used as an odor transporting media after they had been contaminated with the scent of two recently deceased bodies (PMI<3h). The contamination occurred for 2 min as well as 10 min without any direct contact between the carpet and the corpse. Comparative searches by the dogs were performed over a time period of 65 days (10 min contamination) and 35 days (2 min contamination). RESULTS: The results of this study indicate that the well-trained cadaver dog is an outstanding tool for crime scene investigation displaying excellent sensitivity (75-100), specificity (91-100), and having a positive predictive value (90-100), negative predictive value (90-100) as well as accuracy (92-100).
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OBJECTIVE: Infected pancreatic necrosis is the main cause of death in patients with acute pancreatitis, and therefore its early prediction is of utmost importance. Endogenous cortisol metabolism plays a basic role both in the course of acute pancreatitis and in the process of infection. The purpose of this study was to analyze corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG), total cortisol, calculated free cortisol and adrenocorticotropic hormone as potential early predictors in order to differentiate between infected pancreatic necrosis and sterile pancreatic necrosis in patients with acute pancreatitis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Serum levels of CBG, total cortisol, calculated free cortisol, and plasma levels of adrenocorticotropic hormone were determined in 109 consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis. C-reactive protein was measured as the control parameter. Thirty-five patients developed necrotizing pancreatitis and 10 developed infection of the necrosis. Blood was monitored for 6 days after the onset of pain; 30 healthy individuals served as controls. RESULTS: Of all parameters only CBG showed a significant difference (p = 0.0318) in its peak levels measured in the first 48 h in patients with sterile (26.5 microg/ml, range 21.3-34.7) and infected (16.0 microg/ml, range 15.2-25.0) necrosis at a cut-off level of 16.8 microg/ml. That difference was further preserved for the first 6 days after onset of pain. CONCLUSIONS: In our group of patients, a decreased CBG level below 16.8 g/ml within the initial 48 h of acute pancreatitis was an early predictor of later infected pancreatic necrosis, with a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 87.5%.
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Objective-To evaluate pulsed-wave Doppler spectral parameters as a method for distinguishing between neoplastic and inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs. Sample Population-40 superficial lymph nodes from 33 dogs with peripheral lymphadenopathy. Procedures-3 Doppler spectral tracings were recorded from each node. Spectral Doppler analysis including assessment of the resistive index, peak systolic velocity-to-end diastolic velocity (S:D) ratio, diastolic notch velocity-to-peak systolic velocity (N:S) ratio, and end diastolic velocity-to-diastolic notch velocity ratio was performed for each tracing. Several calculation methods were used to determine the Doppler indices for each lymph node. After the ultrasonographic examination, fine needle aspirates or excisional biopsy specimens of the examined lymph nodes were obtained, and lymphadenopathy was classified as either inflammatory or neoplastic (lymphomatous or metastatic) via cytologic or histologic examination. Results of Doppler analysis were compared with cytologic or histopathologic findings. Results-The Doppler index with the highest diagnostic accuracy was the S:D ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 3.22 yielded sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 100%, and negative predictive value of 89% for detection of neoplasia. Overall diagnostic accuracy was 95%. At a sensitivity of 100%, the most accurate index was the N:S ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 0.45 yielded specificity of 67%, positive predictive value of 81%, and overall diagnostic accuracy of 86.5%. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results suggested that noninvasive Doppler spectral analysis may be useful in the diagnosis of neoplastic versus inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs.
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OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the early prognostic value of the medical emergency team (MET) calling criteria in patients admitted to intensive care from the emergency department. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Emergency department and department of intensive care medicine of a 960-bed tertiary referral hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 452 consecutive adult patients admitted to intensive care from the emergency department from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2004. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: MET calling criteria were retrospectively extracted from patient records, and the sum of positive criteria was calculated for the first hour in the emergency department (METinitial) and subsequently until admission to the intensive care unit in a series of time periods. The maximum number of positive MET calling criteria during any time period was defined (METmax). Logistic regression analysis revealed METinitial (odds ratio [OR] 3.392, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.534-4.540) and METmax (OR 3.867, 95% CI 2.816-5.312) to be significant predictors of hospital mortality, the need for mechanical ventilation (METinitial: OR 4.151, 95% CI 3.53-4.652; METmax: OR 4.292, 95% CI 3.151-5.846), and occurrence of hemodynamic instability (METinitial: OR 1.548, 95% CI 1.258-1.905; METmax: OR 1.685, 95% CI 1.355-2.094) (all p < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: MET scores collected early after admission or throughout the stay in the emergency department allow for simple identification of patients at risk of unfavorable outcome during the subsequent intensive care unit stay.
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AIMS: (i) To assess the pattern of early bacterial colonization on titanium oral implants after installation, at 12 weeks and at 12 months, (ii) to compare the microbiota at submucosal implant sites and adjacent subgingival tooth sites and (iii) to assess whether or not early colonization was predictive of 12-month colonization patterns. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Submucosal/subgingival plaque samples from 17 titanium oral implants and adjacent teeth were analyzed by checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization 30 min, 12 weeks and 12 months after implant installation. RESULTS: At 12 months, none of the inserted implants had been lost or presented with signs of peri-implantitis. The distribution of sites at implants and teeth with bleeding on probing varied between 2% and 11%. Probing pocket depths < or =3 mm were found at 75% of implant sites. At 12 months, the sum of the bacterial counts of 40 species was statistically significantly higher at tooth compared with implant sites (mean difference: 34.4 x 10(5), 95% confidence interval -0.4 to 69.4, P<0.05). At 12 months, higher individual bacterial counts at tooth sites were found for 7/40 species compared with implant sites. Detection or lack of detection of Staphylococcus aureus at implant sites at 12 weeks resulted in the highest positive (e.g. 80%) and negative (e.g. 90%) predictive values, respectively. Between 12 weeks and 12 months, the prevalence of Tannerella forsythia increased statistically significantly at implant sites (P<0.05). Lack of detection of Porphyromonas gingivalis at 12 weeks yielded a negative predictive value of 93.1% of this microorganism being undetectable at implant sites at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Within the limits of this study, the findings showed (i) a few differences in the prevalence of bacterial species between implant and adjacent tooth sites at 12 months and (ii) high positive and negative predictive values for selected bacterial species.
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BACKGROUND: Left anterior hemiblock (LAHB) is the most frequent conduction abnormality, but its impact on the diagnostic accuracy of the exercise ECG has not been studied. The aim of our study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ST depression for predicting ischaemia in the presence of LAHB. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients with known or suspected coronary heart disease undergoing exercise ECG and 99mTc-sestamibi single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) were included in the analysis. Patients with left bundle branch block, with changes in QRS morphology related to myocardial infarction, and patients who had undergone pharmacological stress testing were excluded. RESULTS: Of 1532 patients assessed, 567 patients qualified for the analysis. In 69 patients with LAHB, ECG stress testing had lower sensitivity (38% vs 86%) and lower negative predictive value (82% vs 92%) than in patients with normal baseline ECG. The reduction of sensitivity appeared to be similar in patients with isolated LAHB (n=43), in patients with right bundle branch block (n=39), and with bifascicular block (n=26). In contrast, the positive predictive value of the test was excellent. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic accuracy of the exercise ECG for prediction of ischaemia is reduced in patients with LAHB.
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The clinical value of early exercise stress testing (EST) after coronary stenting to predict long-term clinical outcomes is unknown. Of 1,000 unselected patients who underwent coronary stenting, 446 random patients underwent early EST the day after intervention. Clinical long-term outcomes (41 +/- 20 months) were correlated with normal (n = 314 [70%]) or positive (n = 102 [23%]) EST results. Patients with inconclusive test results (n = 30 [7%]) were excluded from the analysis. Overall mortality was significantly higher in patients with positive EST results (9.3% vs 3.9%, p = 0.04). Major adverse cardiac events and cardiac mortality also tended to be higher in patients with positive stress test results (45.4% vs 35.4%, p = 0.08, and 4.1% vs 1.1%, p = 0.05, respectively). Patients with the combination of positive stress test results and incomplete revascularization appeared to be the group at highest risk for major adverse cardiac events (47.1% vs 33.3% for patients with normal stress test results and complete revascularization, p = NS). Negative stress test results reduced (odds ratio 0.329, 95% confidence interval 0.120 to 0.905, p = 0.031) and a lower ejection fraction increased (odds ratio 0.942, 95% confidence interval 0.897 to 0.989, p = 0.017) the risk for death. In conclusion, an early stress test after coronary stenting provides important prognostic information. Positive stress test results, especially in combination with incomplete revascularization, are associated with higher mortality, a trend toward more repeat revascularization procedures, and higher risk for major adverse cardiac events.
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The modified American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) lesion morphology classification scheme has prognostic impact for early and late outcomes when bare-metal stents are used. Its value after drug-eluting stent placement is unknown. The predictive value of this lesion morphology classification system in patients treated using sirolimus-eluting stents included in the German Cypher Registry was prospectively examined. The study population included 6,755 patients treated for 7,960 lesions using sirolimus-eluting stents. Lesions were classified as type A, B1, B2, or C. Lesion type A or B1 was considered simple (35.1%), and type B2 or C, complex (64.9%). The combined end point of all deaths, myocardial infarction, or target vessel revascularization was seen in 2.6% versus 2.4% in the complex and simple groups, respectively (p = 0.62) at initial hospital discharge, with a trend for higher rates of myocardial infarction in the complex group. At the 6-month clinical follow-up and after adjusting for other independent factors, the composite of cumulative death, myocardial infarction, and target vessel revascularization was nonsignificantly different between groups (11.4% vs 11.2% in the complex and simple groups, respectively; odds ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.46). This was also true for target vessel revascularization alone (8.3% of the complex group, 9.0% of the simple group; odds ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 1.05). In conclusion, the modified ACC/AHA lesion morphology classification system has some value in determining early complications after sirolimus-eluting stent implantation. Clinical follow-up results at 6 months were generally favorable and cannot be adequately differentiated on the basis of this lesion morphology classification scheme.
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BACKGROUND: Although urinalysis is simple and inexpensive to perform, the finding of microhaematuria on urinalysis may be unreliable for diagnosing urolithiasis. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate microhaematuria as a diagnostic marker for urolithiasis compared with low-dose unenhanced multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as the "gold standard". SETTING: A level 1 emergency department in a tertiary referral university teaching hospital. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. METHODS: A study was undertaken to assess whether the finding of microhaematuria was diagnostic for urolithiasis using a low-dose unenhanced MDCT-based diagnosis as the reference standard by reviewing the records of all patients who presented to the emergency department with colicky flank pain and underwent a CT scan between January 2003 and December 2005. RESULTS: Urolithiasis was present (as defined by low-dose unenhanced MDCT) in 507/638 patients (79%); 341/638 (53%) were true positive for urolithiasis, 76 (12%) were true negative, 55 (9%) were false positive and 166 (26%) were false negative. Microhaematuria as a test for urolithiasis in patients presenting to the emergency department therefore has a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 67%, 58%, 86% and 31%, respectively. 58% of the urinalysis results were negative for haematuria in the subset of patients with significant alternative diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value of microhaematuria on urinalysis for urolithiasis using unenhanced MDCT as the reference standard were low. This suggests that, when urolithiasis is clinically suspected, unenhanced MDCT is indicated without urinalysis being a prerequisite.