Lake sediments as archives of recurrence rates and intensities of past flood events

Palaeoflood hydrology is an expanding field as the damage potential of flood and flood-related processes are increasing with the population density and the value of the infrastructure. Assessing the risk of these hazards in mountainous terrain requires knowledge about the frequency and severness of such events in the past. A wide range of methods is employed using diverse biologic, geomorphic or geologic evidences to track past flood events. Impact of floods are studied and dated on alluvial fans and cones using for example the growth disturbance of trees (Stoffel and Bollschweiler 2008; Schneuwly-Bollschweiler and Stoffel 2012: this volume) or stratigraphic layers deposited by debris flows, allowing to reconstruct past flood frequencies (Bardou et~al. 2003). Further downstream, the classical approach of palaeoflood hydrology (Kochel and Baker 1982) utilizes geomorphic indicators such as overbank sediments, silt lines and erosion features of floods along a river (e.g. Benito and Thorndycraft 2005). Fine-grained sediment settles out of the river suspension in eddies or backwater areas, where the flow velocity of the river is reduced. Records of these deposits at different elevations across a river’s profile can be used to assess the discharge of the past floods. This approach of palaeoflood hydrology studies was successfully applied in several river catchments (e.g. Ely et al. 1993; Macklin and Lewin 2003; O’Connor et al. 1994; Sheffer et al. 2003; Thorndycraft et al. 2005; Thorndycraft and Benito 2006). All these different reconstruction methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, but often these studies have a limited time coverage and the records are potentially incomplete due to lateral limits of depositional areas and due to the erosional power of fluvial processes that remove previously deposited flood witnesses. Here, we present a method that follows the sediment particle transported by a flood event to its final sink: the lacustrine basin.

Mounting behaviour in finishing pigs: Stable individual differences are not due to dominance or stage of sexual development

Every year around 100 million male piglets are castrated in the EU, usually without anaesthesia or post-operative analgesia. This surgical intervention is painful and stressful. Several main players within the pig industry have voluntarily agreed to end the practice of surgical pig castration in the EU by 2018. One alternative to castration is entire male pig production. However, entire males behave differently than castrates, for example, by performing more mounting behaviour, which is suggested to be a welfare problem. The aim of our study was to develop a comprehensive ethogram of different types of mounting and to investigate properties, causes and consequences of mounting behaviour in finishing pigs. The study included 80 entire male and 80 female pigs from two farrowing batches born six weeks apart. Mixed sex and single-sex housing of pigs are both common in pig farming, so to ensure our study was representative, the 160 pigs were assigned to social groups of 20 in three treatments: entire male pigs only (MM, 2 groups, n = 40), entire females only (FF, 2 groups, n = 40) and entire males and females mixed together (MF, 4 groups, n = 80). Measurements took place during the final six weeks before slaughter (between 63.5 and 105.5 kg). Observations of mounting behaviour on 12 days per batch suggested that: (i) males mounted more than females, (ii) within sex, there was no effect of treatment on the amount of mounting (although the statistical power of the study to detect these effects was low), and (iii) there were individual differences in mounting that were stable over time (within sex). Classification of mounting into different categories revealed that sexual mounting was most common overall and in males but only rare in females. Compared to other types of mounting (e.g. caused by crowding or during a fight), sexual mounts lasted longer and provoked more screaming by the recipient. There were no relationships between mounting behaviour on the one hand and dominance rank in food competition tests, the circulating levels of sex hormones (oestradiol, testosterone and progesterone) at the end of the study, the health scores (lameness and scratches) or weight gain on the other hand. The stable individual differences of mounting over time suggest that mounting behaviour is a trait of the individual rather than the appearance of random outbreaks. However, these differences in mounting cannot be explained by dominance behaviour or by differences in sex hormone concentrations that could indicate the onset of puberty. Mounting behaviour and in particular sexual mounting provoked high pitched screaming of the recipients indicating that mounting is a welfare problem. For the welfare assessment of entire male pig production the performance of mounting behaviour should be considered. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

More than just Good Luck. How to Explain the Success of Monte Carlo Simulations

Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful method in many natural and social sciences. But what sort of method is it? And where does its power come from? Are Monte Carlo simulations experiments, theories or something else? The aim of this talk is to answer these questions and to explain the power of Monte Carlo simulations. I provide a classification of Monte Carlo techniques and defend the claim that Monte Carlo simulation is a sort of inference.

How fit turns into misfit and back: institutional transformations of pastoral commons in African floodplains

We enlarge the notion of institutional fit using theoretical approaches from New Institutionalism, including rational choice and strategic action, political ecology and constructivist approaches. These approaches are combined with ecological approaches (system and evolutionary ecology) focusing on feedback loops and change. We offer results drawn from a comparison of fit and misfit cases of institutional change in pastoral commons in four African floodplain contexts (Zambia, Cameroon, Tanzania (two cases). Cases of precolonial fit and misfit in the postcolonial past, as well as a case of institutional fit in the postcolonial phase, highlight important features, specifically, flexible institutions, leadership, and mutual economic benefit under specific relations of bargaining power of actors. We argue that only by combining otherwise conflicting approaches can we come to understand why institutional fit develops into misfit and back again. Key Words: African floodplains; governance; institutional change; institutional fit; New Institutionalism; pastoral commons

Can infant lung function predict respiratory morbidity during the first year of life in preterm infants?

Compared with term-born infants, preterm infants have increased respiratory morbidity in the first year of life. We investigated whether lung function tests performed near term predict subsequent respiratory morbidity during the first year of life and compared this to standard clinical parameters in preterms.The prospective birth cohort included randomly selected preterm infants with and without bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Lung function (tidal breathing and multiple-breath washout) was measured at 44 weeks post-menstrual age during natural sleep. We assessed respiratory morbidity (wheeze, hospitalisation, inhalation and home oxygen therapy) after 1 year using a standardised questionnaire. We first assessed the association between lung function and subsequent respiratory morbidity. Secondly, we compared the predictive power of standard clinical predictors with and without lung function data.In 166 preterm infants, tidal volume, time to peak tidal expiratory flow/expiratory time ratio and respiratory rate were significantly associated with subsequent wheeze. In comparison with standard clinical predictors, lung function did not improve the prediction of later respiratory morbidity in an individual child.Although associated with later wheeze, noninvasive infant lung function shows large physiological variability and does not add to clinically relevant risk prediction for subsequent respiratory morbidity in an individual preterm.

Effect of electromagnetic fields on highly diluted remedies measured by ultraviolet spectroscopy

Purpose: In homeopathy or anthroposophically extended medicine high dilutions are used. They showed significant differences in ultraviolet light (UV) transmission between controls and different dilution levels. Exposing such dilutions to physical factors such as UV light or elevated temperature (37�C) yielded significantly different UV transmissions values compared to unexposed dilutions. The aim was to test whether electromagnetic fields (EMF) of a mobile phone affect the UV absorbance of dilutions of Atropa belladonna (Ab) and quartz. Methods: Commercially available dilutions of Ab 4x, 6x, 12x, 15x, 30x and of quartz 6x, 12x, 15x, 30x were investigated. On 5 days, 4 samples of each dilution were exposed to the EMF by a mobile phone at 900MHz (GSM) with an output power of 2W for 3 h. Control samples were kept in a separate room. UV-absorbance of the samples in the range from 190 to 340 nm was measured in randomized order. The average absorbance from 200 to 340 nm and from 200 to 240 nm was compared between exposed and unexposed samples by a dependent t-test. Results: Between unexposed and exposed dilutions of Ab and quartz no significant differences were detected, except for quartz 12x over the range from 200 to 340 nm. Conclusion: Exposure of high dilutions of Ab and quartz to GSM EMF of a mobile phone did not alter UV absorbance of these dilutions.

Differential aspects of memory self-evaluation in old and very old people

The aim of this paper was to examine age-related changes and gender differences in memory self-evaluation in old people and to examine the predictive power of objective memory performance and of personality variables (neuroticism and extraversion) on memory self-evaluation. In a cross-sectional study, 301 not institutionalized people aged 65± 94, 207 male and 94 female, were tested on three parameters. Subjective memory evaluation was operationalized with three one-item ratings: temporal comparison, social comparison, situation-speci® c memory self-evaluation just after performing a memory test. Objective memory assessment (free recall) used a computerized test. Personality assessment included the two main sub-scales `extraversion’ and `neuroticism’ from the Freiburger PersoÈ nlichkeits-Inventar.The results shaved that persons of all age groups have a realistic appraisal of their age-related memory decline.No gender effects were found for any of the three forms of memory self-evaluation. The relationship between objective memory performance, personality variables and memory self-evaluation however depends on age and gender. Our results show that objective memory performance is predictive for memory self-evaluation in men aged >75 years, whereas in men <75 neuroticism is the only signi® cant predictor.Men of the older cohort seem to have adapted to the age-related memory decline whereas the young old are still coping with the ongoing changes. In women of both age groups the objective memory performance is the only and strong predictor of memory self-evaluation. Our results suggest that gender-speci® c educational socialization might be the reason for these differences.

Nuclear antisense effects in cyclophilin A pre-mRNA splicing by oligonucleotides: A comparison of tricyclo-DNA with LNA

The nuclear antisense properties of a series of tricyclo(tc)-DNA oligonucleotide 9-15mers, targeted against the 3' and 5' splice sites of exon 4 of cyclophilin A (CyPA) pre-mRNA, were evaluated in HeLa cells and compared with those of corresponding LNA-oligonucleotides. While the 9mers showed no significant antisense effect, the 11-15mers induced exon 4 skipping and exon 3+4 double skipping to about an equal extent upon lipofectamine mediated transfection in a sequence and dose dependent manner, as revealed by a RT-PCR assay. The antisense efficacy of the tc-oligonucleotides was found to be superior to that of the LNA-oligonucleotides in all cases by a factor of at least 4-5. A tc-oligonucleotide 15mer completely abolished CyPA mRNA production at 0.2‘M concentration. The antisense effect was confirmed by western blot analysis which revealed a reduction of CyPA protein to 13% of its normal level. Fluorescence microscopic investigations with a fluorescein labeled tc-15mer revealed a strong propensity for homogeneous nuclear localization of this backbone type after lipofectamine mediated transfection, while the corresponding lna 15mer showed a less clear cellular distribution pattern. Transfection without lipid carrier showed no significant internalization of both tc- and LNA-oligonucleotides. The obtained results confirm the power of tricyclo-DNA for nuclear antisense applications. Morover, CyPA may become an interesting therapeutic target due to its important role in the early steps of the viral replication of HIV-1.

Intrauterine instillation of diluted seminal plasma at oocyte pick-up does not increase the IVF pregnancy rate: a double-blind, placebo controlled, randomized study.

STUDY QUESTION Does intrauterine application of diluted seminal plasma (SP) at the time of ovum pick-up improve the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF treatment? SUMMARY ANSWER Intrauterine instillation of diluted SP at the time of ovum pick-up is unlikely to increase the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY SP modulates endometrial function, and sexual intercourse around the time of embryo transfer has been suggested to increase the likelihood of pregnancy. A previous randomized double-blind pilot study demonstrated a strong trend towards increased pregnancy rates following the intracervical application of undiluted SP. As this study was not conclusive and as the finding could have been confounded by sexual intercourse, the intrauterine application of diluted SP was investigated in the present trial. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A single-centre, prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, superiority trial on women undergoing IVF was conducted from April 2007 until February 2012 at the University Department of Gynaecological Endocrinology and Reproductive Medicine, Heidelberg, Germany. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The study was powered to detect an 14% increase in the clinical pregnancy rate and two sequential tests were planned using the Pocock spending function. At the first interim analysis, 279 women had been randomly assigned to intrauterine diluted SP (20% SP in saline from the patients' partner) (n = 138) or placebo (n = 141) at the time of ovum pick-up. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The clinical pregnancy rate per randomized patient was 37/138 (26.8%) in the SP group and 41/141 (29.1%) in the placebo group (difference: -2.3%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +8.2%; P = 0.69). The live birth rate per randomized patient was 28/138 (20.3%) in the SP group and 33/141 (23.4%) in the placebo group (difference: -3.1%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +6.6%; P = 0.56). It was decided to terminate the trial due to futility at the first interim analysis, at a conditional power of 62%. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The confidence interval of the difference remains wide, thus clinically relevant differences cannot reliably be excluded based on this single study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The results of this study cast doubt on the validity of the concept that SP increases endometrial receptivity and thus implantation in humans. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) Funding was provided by the department's own research facilities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER DRKS00004615.

Increment thickness versus dentin bond strength of bulk fill flowables

Objectives: The aim was to investigate the influence of increment thickness on shear bond strength (SBS) to dentin of a conventional and two bulk fill flowable composites. Methods: A total of 135 specimens of ground human dentin were produced (n=15/group; 3 increment thicknesses; 3 flowable composites) and the dentin surfaces were treated with the adhesive system OptiBond FL (Kerr) according to manufacturer’s instructions. Split Teflon molds (inner diameter: 3.6 mm) of 2 mm, 4 mm, or 6 mm height allowing three increment thicknesses were clamped on the dentin surfaces and filled with either the conventional flowable Filtek Supreme XTE ((XTE); 3M ESPE) or the bulk fill flowables Filtek Bulk Fill ((FBF); 3M ESPE) or SDR ((SDR); DENTSPLY Caulk). The flowable composites were light-cured for 20 s (Demi LED; Kerr) and the specimens stored for 24 h (37°C, 100% humidity). Specimens were then subjected to a SBS-test in a universal testing machine at a cross-head speed of 1 mm/min (Zwick Z010; Zwick GmbH & Co.). SBS-values were statistically analysed with a nonparametrical ANOVA followed by exact Wilcoxon rank sum tests (α=0.05). Failure mode of the specimens was determined under a stereomicroscope at 25× magnification. Results: SBS-values (MPa) at 2 mm/4 mm/6 mm increment thicknesses (mean value [standard deviation]) were for XTE: 18.8 [2.6]/17.6 [1.6]/16.7 [3.1], for FBF: 20.6 [2.7]/17.8 [2.7]/18.7 [2.9], and for SDR: 21.7 [2.6]/18.5 [2.6]/20.3 [3.0]. For all three flowable composites, 2 mm increments yielded the highest SBS-values whereas for increments of 4 mm and 6 mm no differences were detected. All specimens presented failure modes involving cohesive failure in dentin. Conclusion: The influence of increment thickness on dentin SBS was less pronounced than expected. However, the high number of cohesive failures in dentin, reflecting the efficiency of the adhesive system, suggests a limited discriminatory power of the SBS-test.

Performance of jet substructure techniques for large-ℝ jets in proton-proton collisions at sqrts = 7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

This paper presents the application of a variety of techniques to study jet substructure. The performance of various modified jet algorithms, or jet grooming techniques, for several jet types and event topologies is investigated for jets with transverse momentum larger than 300 GeV. Properties of jets subjected to the mass-drop filtering, trimming, and pruning algorithms are found to have reduced sensitivity to multiple proton-proton interactions, are more stable at high luminosity and improve the physics potential of searches for heavy boosted objects. Studies of the expected discrimination power of jet mass and jet substructure observables in searches for new physics are also presented. Event samples enriched in boosted W and Z bosons and top-quark pairs are used to study both the individual jet invariant mass scales and the efficacy of algorithms to tag boosted hadronic objects. The analyses presented use the full 2011 ATLAS dataset, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 +/- 0.1 /fb from proton-proton collisions produced by the Large Hadron Collider at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV.

Added value of dual-energy computed tomography versus single-energy computed tomography in assessing ferromagnetic properties of ballistic projectiles: implications for magnetic resonance imaging of gunshot victims.

OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to assess the discriminative power of dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) versus single-energy CT (SECT) to distinguish between ferromagnetic and non-ferromagnetic ballistic projectiles to improve safety regarding magnetic resonance (MR) imaging studies in patients with retained projectiles. MATERIALS AND METHODS Twenty-seven ballistic projectiles including 25 bullets (diameter, 3-15 mm) and 2 shotgun pellets (2 mm each) were examined in an anthropomorphic chest phantom using 128-section dual-source CT. Data acquisition was performed with tube voltages set at 80, 100, 120, and 140 kV(p). Two readers independently assessed CT numbers of the projectile's core on images reconstructed with an extended CT scale. Dual-energy indices (DEIs) were calculated from both 80-/140-kV(p) and 100-/140-kV(p) pairs; receiver operating characteristics curves were fitted to assess ferromagnetic properties by means of CT numbers and DEI. RESULTS Nine (33%) of the projectiles were ferromagnetic; 18 were nonferromagnetic (67%). Interreader and intrareader correlations of CT number measurements were excellent (intraclass correlation coefficients, >0.906; P<0.001). The DEI calculated from both 80/140 and 100/140 kV(p) were significantly (P<0.05) different between the ferromagnetic and non-ferromagnetic projectiles. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75 and 0.8 for the tube voltage pairs of 80/140 and 100/140 kV(p) (P<0.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.94 and 0.62-0.97, respectively) to differentiate between the ferromagnetic and non-ferromagnetic ballistic projectiles; which increased to 0.83 and 0.85 when shotgun pellets were excluded from the analysis. The AUC for SECT was 0.69 and 0.73 (80 and 100 kV[p], respectively). CONCLUSIONS Measurements of DECT combined with an extended CT scale allow for the discrimination of projectiles with non-ferromagnetic from those with ferromagnetic properties in an anthropomorphic chest phantom with a higher AUC compared with SECT. This study indicates that DECT may have the potential to contribute to MR safety and allow for MR imaging of patients with retained projectiles. However, further studies are necessary before this concept may be used to triage clinical patients before MR.

Relationship of individual scapular anatomy and degenerative rotator cuff tears.

BACKGROUND The etiology of rotator cuff disease is age related, as documented by prevalence data. Despite conflicting results, growing evidence suggests that distinct scapular morphologies may accelerate the underlying degenerative process. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the predictive power of 5 commonly used radiologic parameters of scapular morphology to discriminate between patients with intact rotator cuff tendons and those with torn rotator cuff tendons. METHODS A pre hoc power analysis was performed to determine the sample size. Two independent readers measured the acromion index, lateral acromion angle, and critical shoulder angle on standardized anteroposterior radiographs. In addition, the acromial morphology according to Bigliani and the acromial slope were determined on true outlet views. Measurements were performed in 51 consecutive patients with documented degenerative rotator cuff tears and in an age- and sex-matched control group of 51 patients with intact rotator cuff tendons. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed to determine cutoff values and to assess the sensitivity and specificity of each parameter. RESULTS Patients with degenerative rotator cuff tears demonstrated significantly higher acromion indices, smaller lateral acromion angles, and larger critical shoulder angles than patients with intact rotator cuffs. However, no difference was found between the acromial morphology according to Bigliani and the acromial slope. With an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.855 and an odds ratio of 10.8, the critical shoulder angle represented the strongest predictor for the presence of a rotator cuff tear. CONCLUSION The acromion index, lateral acromion angle, and critical shoulder angle accurately predict the presence of degenerative rotator cuff tears.

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

OBJECTIVE Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. RESULTS The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

The role of climate-driven chemical weathering on soil production

Climate plays an important role in controlling rates of weathering and weathered regolith production. Regolith production functions, however, seldom take climate parameters into account. Based on a climate-dependent weathered regolith production model, at low denudation rates, relative regolith thicknesses are less sensitive to changes in precipitation rates, while at high denudation rates, small changes in climatic parameters can result in complete stripping of hillslopes. This pattern is compounded by the long residence times and system response times associated with low denudation rates, and vice versa. As others have shown, the transition between regolith-mantled and bedrock slopes is dependent on the ratio of denudation to production. Here, we further suggest that this is itself a function of precipitation rate and temperature. We suggest that climatic parameters can be easily incorporated into existing soil production models and that such additions improve the predictive power of soil production models. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.