On the signature of positive braids and adjacency for torus knots

The objects of study in this thesis are knots. More precisely, positive braid knots, which include algebraic knots and torus knots. In the first part of this thesis, we compare two classical knot invariants - the genus g and the signature σ - for positive braid knots. Our main result on positive braid knots establishes a linear lower bound for the signature in terms of the genus. In the second part of the thesis, a positive braid approach is applied to the study of the local behavior of polynomial functions from the complex affine plane to the complex numbers. After endowing polynomial function germs with a suitable topology, the adjacency problem arises: for a fixed germ f, what classes of germs g can be found arbitrarily close to f? We introduce two purely topological notions of adjacency for knots and discuss connections to algebraic notions of adjacency and the adjacency problem.

The reporting quality of randomized controlled trials in orthodontics.

OBJECTIVES Accurate trial reporting facilitates evaluation and better use of study results. The objective of this article is to investigate the quality of reporting of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in leading orthodontic journals, and to explore potential predictors of improved reporting. METHODS The 50 most recent issues of 4 leading orthodontic journals until November 2013 were electronically searched. Reporting quality assessment was conducted using the modified CONSORT statement checklist. The relationship between potential predictors and the modified CONSORT score was assessed using linear regression modeling. RESULTS 128 RCTs were identified with a mean modified CONSORT score of 68.97% (SD = 11.09). The Journal of Orthodontics (JO) ranked first in terms of completeness of reporting (modified CONSORT score 76.21%, SD = 10.1), followed by American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJODO) (73.05%, SD = 10.1). Journal of publication (AJODO: β = 10.08, 95% CI: 5.78, 14.38; JO: β = 16.82, 95% CI: 11.70, 21.94; EJO: β = 7.21, 95% CI: 2.69, 11.72 compared to Angle), year of publication (β = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.28, 1.67 for each additional year), region of authorship (Europe: β = 5.19, 95% CI: 1.30, 9.09 compared to Asia/other), statistical significance (significant: β = 3.10, 95% CI: 0.11, 6.10 compared to non-significant) and methodologist involvement (involvement: β = 5.60, 95% CI: 1.66, 9.54 compared to non-involvement) were all significant predictors of improved modified CONSORT scores in the multivariable model. Additionally, median overall Jadad score was 2 (IQR = 2) across journals, with JO (median = 3, IQR = 1) and AJODO (median = 3, IQR = 2) presenting the highest score values. CONCLUSION The reporting quality of RCTs published in leading orthodontic journals is considered suboptimal in various CONSORT areas. This may have a bearing in trial result interpretation and use in clinical decision making and evidence- based orthodontic treatment interventions.

Comparison of noninferiority margins reported in protocols and publications showed incomplete and inconsistent reporting.

OBJECTIVES To compare noninferiority margins defined in study protocols and trial registry records with margins reported in subsequent publications. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Comparison of protocols of noninferiority trials submitted 2001 to 2005 to ethics committees in Switzerland and The Netherlands with corresponding publications and registry records. We searched MEDLINE via PubMed, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Cochrane Library issue 01/2012), and Google Scholar in September 2013 to identify published reports, and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform of the World Health Organization in March 2013 to identify registry records. Two readers recorded the noninferiority margin and other data using a standardized data-abstraction form. RESULTS The margin was identical in study protocol and publication in 43 (80%) of 54 pairs of study protocols and articles. In the remaining pairs, reporting was inconsistent (five pairs, 9%), or the noninferiority margin was either not reported in the publication (five pairs, 9%) or not defined in the study protocol (one pair). The confidence interval or the exact P-value required to judge whether the result was compatible with noninferior, inferior, or superior efficacy was reported in 43 (80%) publications. Complete and consistent reporting of both noninferiority margin and confidence interval (or exact P-value) was present in 39 (72%) protocol-publication pairs. Twenty-nine trials (54%) were registered in trial registries, but only one registry record included the noninferiority margin. CONCLUSION The reporting of noninferiority margins was incomplete and inconsistent with study protocols in a substantial proportion of published trials, and margins were rarely reported in trial registries.

What are the metacognitive costs of young children's overconfidence?

Children typically hold very optimistic views of their own skills but so far, only a few studies have investigated possible correlates of the ability to predict performance accurately. Therefore, this study examined the role of individual differences in performance estimation accuracy as a global metacognitive index for different monitoring and control skills (item-level judgments of learning [JOLs] and confidence judgments [CJs]), metacognitive control processes (allocation of study time and control of answers), and executive functions (cognitive flexibility, inhibition, working memory) in 6-year-olds (N=93). The three groups of under estimators, realists and over estimators differed significantly in their monitoring and control abilities: the under estimators outperformed the over estimators by showing a higher discrimination in CJs between correct and incorrect recognition. Also, the under estimators scored higher on the adequate control of incorrectly recognized items. Regarding the interplay of monitoring and control processes, under estimators spent more time studying items with low JOLs, and relied more systematically on their monitoring when controlling their recognition compared to over estimators. At the same time, the three groups did not differ significantly from each other in their executive functions. Overall, results indicate that differences in performance estimation accuracy are systematically related to other global and item-level metacognitive monitoring and control abilities in children as young as six years of age, while no meaningful association between performance estimation accuracy and executive functions was found.

The role of cold stress in predicting extra cardiovascular and respiratory admissions

Although several studies have examined effects of air temperature and/or other meteorological variables separately on disease rates, the relationship of meteorological variables and human disease is, in fact, rather complex in the “real-world” [1,2] including the number of potential variables to be considered and their weighting. In other words, 1 °C of air temperature difference in a warm climate may not necessarily mean the same in a cold climate across regions on Earth [3,4]. Why some seasonality was observed in certain regions at certain times only is likely due in part to the imprecise weather estimation from mean, maximum, or minimum air temperature or the definition of study catchments or time period to be included.

Resilient Adaptation to Climate Change in African Agriculture

Africa’s agriculture faces varying climate change impacts which mainly worsen production conditions and adversely affect its economies. Adaptations thus need to build the resilience of farming systems. Using “resilient adaptation” as a concept, this study analyses how adaptations at farm and policy/institutional-levels contribute to the resilience of Sub-Saharan African agriculture. The developed tool, “the Resilience Check”, provides socio-economic data which complements existing adaptation tools. The underlying development gaps such as insecure property rights, poverty, low self-organisation, inadequate climate data and infrastructure limit resilient adaptations. If farmers could implement recommended practices, existing measures and improved crops can address most impacts expected in the medium-term. However, resource use efficiency remains critical for all farm management types. Development-oriented adaptation measures are needed to provide the robust foundations for building resilience. Reaching the very poor remains a challenge and the externally driven nature of many interventions raises concern about their sustainability. The study recommends practical measures such as decentralising various services and integrating the action plans of the multilateral environmental agreements into one national action plan.

About DNA databasing and investigative genetic analysis of externally visible characteristics: A public survey.

During the last decade, DNA profiling and the use of DNA databases have become two of the most employed instruments of police investigations. This very rapid establishment of forensic genetics is yet far from being complete. In the last few years novel types of analyses have been presented to describe phenotypically a possible perpetrator. We conducted the present study among German speaking Swiss residents for two main reasons: firstly, we aimed at getting an impression of the public awareness and acceptance of the Swiss DNA database and the perception of a hypothetical DNA database containing all Swiss residents. Secondly, we wanted to get a broader picture of how people that are not working in the field of forensic genetics think about legal permission to establish phenotypic descriptions of alleged criminals by genetic means. Even though a significant number of study participants did not even know about the existence of the Swiss DNA database, its acceptance appears to be very high. Generally our results suggest that the current forensic use of DNA profiling is considered highly trustworthy. However, the acceptance of a hypothetical universal database would be only as low as about 30% among the 284 respondents to our study, mostly because people are concerned about the security of their genetic data, their privacy or a possible risk of abuse of such a database. Concerning the genetic analysis of externally visible characteristics and biogeographical ancestry, we discover a high degree of acceptance. The acceptance decreases slightly when precise characteristics are presented to the participants in detail. About half of the respondents would be in favor of the moderate use of physical traits analyses only for serious crimes threatening life, health or sexual integrity. The possible risk of discrimination and reinforcement of racism, as discussed by scholars from anthropology, bioethics, law, philosophy and sociology, is mentioned less frequently by the study participants than we would have expected. A national DNA database and the widespread use of DNA analyses for police and justice have an impact on the entire society. Therefore the concerns of lay persons from the respective population should be heard and considered. The aims of this study were to draw a broader picture of the public opinion on DNA databasing and to contribute to the debate about the possible future use of genetics to reveal phenotypic characteristics. Our data might provide an additional perspective for experts involved in regulatory or legislative processes.

Are suicide attempters wired differently?

Objective: Limited research exists on internal risk processes in suicide attempters and factors that distinguish them from non-suicidal, depressive individuals. In this qualitative study, we investigated Plans, motives, and underlying self-regulatory processes of the two groups and conducted a comparative analysis. Methods: We analyzed narrative interviews of 17 suicide attempters and intake interviews of 17 non-suicidal, depressive patients using Plan Analysis. Then, we developed a prototypical Plan structure for both groups. Results: Suicidal behavior serves various Plans only found in suicide attempters. Plans of this group are especially related to social perfectionism and withdrawal in order to protect their self-esteem. Depressive patients employ several interpersonal control and coping strategies, which might help prevent suicidal behavior. Conclusion: The prototypical Plan structure of suicide attempters may be a valuable tool for clinicians to detect critical Plans and motives in their interaction with patients, which are related to suicide risk.

Meta-cognition about biological sex and gender-stereotypic physical appearance: Consequences for the assessment of leadership competence

Previous findings are inconsistent with regard to whether men are judged as being more or less competent leaders than women. However, masculine-relative to feminine-looking persons seem to be judged consistently as more competent leaders. Can this different impact of biological sex and physical appearance be due to the disparate availability of meta-cognitive knowledge about both sources? The results of Study 1 indicated that individuals possess meta-cognitive knowledge about a possible biasing influence of persons’ biological sex, but not for their physical appearance. In Study 2, participants judged the leadership competence of a male versus female stimulus person with either masculine or feminine physical appearance. In addition, the available cognitive capacity was manipulated. When high capacity was available, participants corrected for the influence of stimulus persons’ sex, but they fell prey to this influence under cognitive load. However, the effect of physical appearance was not moderated by cognitive capacity.

Detection of Malnutrition in Patients Undergoing Maintenance Haemodialysis: A Quantitative Data Analysis on 12 Parameters

Background Protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM) is common in people with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing maintenance haemodialysis (MHD) and correlates strongly with mortality. To this day, there is no gold standard for detecting PEM in patients on MHD. Aim of Study The aim of this study was to evaluate if Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), handgrip strength measurement, mid-upper arm muscle area (MUAMA), triceps skin fold measurement (TSF), serum albumin, normalised protein catabolic rate (nPCR), Kt/V and eKt/V, dry body weight, body mass index (BMI), age and time since start on MHD are relevant for assessing PEM in patients on MHD. Methods The predictive value of the selected parameters on mortality and mortality or weight loss of more than 5% was assessed. Quantitative data analysis of the 12 parameters in the same patients on MHD in autumn 2009 (n = 64) and spring 2011 (n = 40) with paired statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results Paired data analysis showed significant reduction of dry body weight, BMI and nPCR. Kt/Vtot did not change, eKt/v and hand grip strength measurements were significantly higher in spring 2011. No changes were detected in TSF, serum albumin, NRS-2002 and MUAMA. Serum albumin was shown to be the only predictor of death and of the combined endpoint “death or weight loss of more than 5%”. Conclusion We now screen patients biannually for serum albumin, nPCR, Kt/V, handgrip measurement of the shunt-free arm, dry body weight, age and time since initiation of MHD.

Development of an Interleukin-1β Vaccine in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Interleukin-1β (IL-1β) is a key cytokine involved in inflammatory illnesses including rare hereditary diseases and common chronic inflammatory conditions as gout, rheumatoid arthritis, and type 2 diabetes mellitus, suggesting reduction of IL-1β activity as new treatment strategy. The objective of our study was to assess safety, antibody response, and preliminary efficacy of a novel vaccine against IL-1β. The vaccine hIL1bQb consisting of full-length, recombinant IL-1β coupled to virus-like particles was tested in a preclinical and clinical, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study in patients with type 2 diabetes. The preclinical simian study showed prompt induction of IL-1β-specific antibodies upon vaccination, while neutralizing antibodies appeared with delay. In the clinical study with 48 type 2 diabetic patients, neutralizing IL-1β-specific antibody responses were detectable after six injections with doses of 900 µg. The development of neutralizing antibodies was associated with higher number of study drug injections, lower baseline body mass index, improvement of glycemia, and C-reactive protein (CRP). The vaccine hIL1bQb was safe and well-tolerated with no differences regarding adverse events between patients receiving hIL1bQb compared to placebo. This is the first description of a vaccine against IL-1β and represents a new treatment option for IL-1β-dependent diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00924105).Molecular Therapy (2016); doi:10.1038/mt.2015.227.

Visual Perception and Acuity of Hand Surgeons Using Loupes.

PURPOSE To assess the visual performance of Swiss hand surgeons in an environment similar to their workplace. The influence of Galilean (lenses only) and Keplerian loupes (lenses and prisms), the surgeon's age, and the credibility of a self-assessment of his or her own optical performance were evaluated. METHODS Sixty-three hand surgeons between 29 and 68 years of age with 70 loupes were included in the study (Galilean n = 35, Keplerian n = 35). The visual performance as surgeons was self-assessed on a modified visual analog scale and objectively measured with miniaturized visual tests in a simulated clinical setting. We evaluated the influence of the optical device by comparing Galilean and Keplerian loupes and the influence of the surgeon's age by comparing 2 subgroups: < 40 years and ≥ 40 years. RESULTS The correlation between self-assessment and objective visual performance was weak, with a Spearman rank correlation coefficient of 0.25. The near visual acuity with habitual optical aids showed considerable variability, with a range of 300% in the dimension of the smallest detected structure. The near visual acuity was significantly lower in the older group ≥ 40 years than in the younger group < 40 years with both Galilean and Keplerian loupes. Keplerian loupes allowed a significantly higher visual performance than Galilean loupes. Surgeons 40 years or older using Keplerian loupes had a similar visual acuity to surgeons younger than 40 years with Galilean loupes. CONCLUSIONS The magnified near vision of hand surgeons showed an important individual variability. Self-assessment was not a valuable instrument for surgeons to estimate their own near vision. Hand surgeons older than 40 years should use higher magnification loupes. TYPE OF STUDY/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Diagnostic III.

Three Experimental Approaches to Measure the Social Context Dependence of Prejudice Communication and Discriminatory Behavior

Empirical research on discrimination is faced with crucial problems stemming from the specific character of its object of study. In democratic societies the communication of prejudices and other forms of discriminatory behavior is considered socially undesirable and depends on situational factors such as whether a situation is considered private or whether a discriminatory consensus can be assumed. Regular surveys thus can only offer a blurred picture of the phenomenon. But also survey experiments intended to decrease the social desirability bias (SDB) so far failed in systematically implementing situational variables. This paper introduces three experimental approaches to improve the study of discrimination and other topics of social (un-)desirability. First, we argue in favor of cognitive context framing in surveys in order to operationalize the salience of situational norms. Second, factorial surveys offer a way to take situational contexts and substitute behavior into account. And third, choice experiments – a rather new method in sociology – offer a more valid method of measuring behavioral characteristics compared to simple items in surveys. All three approaches – which may be combined – are easy to implement in large-scale surveys. Results of empirical studies demonstrate the fruitfulness of each of these approaches.

Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa.

INTRODUCTION Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. METHODS We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. RESULTS Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1-80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries.