Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

The effects of dexmedetomidine/remifentanil and midazolam/remifentanil on auditory-evoked potentials and electroencephalogram at light-to-moderate sedation levels in healthy subjects

Avoidance of excessively deep sedation levels is problematic in intensive care patients. Electrophysiologic monitoring may offer an approach to solving this problem. Since electroencephalogram (EEG) responses to different sedation regimens vary, we assessed electrophysiologic responses to two sedative drug regimens in 10 healthy volunteers. Dexmedetomidine/remifentanil (dex/remi group) and midazolam/remifentanil (mida/remi group) were infused 7 days apart. Each combination of medications was given at stepwise intervals to reach Ramsay scores (RS) 2, 3, and 4. Resting EEG, bispectral index (BIS), and the N100 amplitudes of long-latency auditory-evoked potentials (ERP) were recorded at each level of sedation. During dex/remi, resting EEG was characterized by a recurrent high-power low-frequency pattern which became more pronounced at deeper levels of sedation. BIS Index decreased uniformly in only the dex/remi group (from 94 +/- 3 at baseline to 58 +/- 14 at RS 4) compared to the mida/remi group (from 94 +/- 2 to 76 +/- 10; P = 0.029 between groups). The ERP amplitudes decreased from 5.3 +/- 1.3 at baseline to 0.4 +/- 1.1 at RS 4 (P = 0.003) in only the mida/remi group. We conclude that ERPs in volunteers sedated with dex/remi, in contrast to mida/remi, indicate a cortical response to acoustic stimuli, even when sedation reaches deeper levels. Consequently, ERP can monitor sedation with midazolam but not with dexmedetomidine. The reverse is true for BIS.

Sex Differences in Semantic Processing: Event-Related Brain Potentials Distinguish between Lower and Higher Order Semantic Analysis during Word Reading

Behavioral studies suggest that women and men differ in the strategic elaboration of verbally encoded information especially in the absence of external task demand. However, measuring such covert processing requires other than behavioral data. The present study used event-related potentials to compare sexes in lower and higher order semantic processing during the passive reading of semantically related and unrelated word pairs. Women and men showed the same early context effect in the P1-N1 transition period. This finding indicates that the initial lexical-semantic access is similar in men and women. In contrast, sexes differed in higher order semantic processing. Women showed an earlier and longer lasting context effect in the N400 accompanied by larger signal strength in temporal networks similarly recruited by men and women. The results suggest that women spontaneously conduct a deeper semantic analysis. This leads to faster processing of related words in the active neural networks as reflected in a shorter stability of the N400 map in women. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that there is a selective sex difference in the controlled semantic analysis during passive word reading that is not reflected in different functional organization but in the depth of processing.

Matched-pair study showed higher quality of placebo-controlled trials in Western phytotherapy than conventional medicine

OBJECTIVES: Herbal medicine (phytotherapy) is widely used, but the evidence for its effectiveness is a matter of ongoing debate. We compared the quality and results of trials of Western phytotherapy and conventional medicine. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A random sample of placebo-controlled trials of Western phytotherapy was identified in a comprehensive literature search (19 electronic databases). Conventional medicine trials matched for condition and type of outcome were selected from the Cochrane Central Controlled Trials Register (issue 1, 2003). Data were extracted in duplicate. Trials described as double-blind, with adequate generation of allocation sequence and adequate concealment of allocation were assumed to be of higher methodological quality. RESULTS: Eighty-nine herbal medicine and 89 matched conventional medicine trials were analyzed. Studies of Western herbalism were smaller, less likely to be published in English, and less likely to be indexed in MEDLINE than their counterparts from conventional medicine. Nineteen (21%) herbal and four (5%) conventional medicine trials were of higher quality. In both groups, smaller trials showed more beneficial treatment effects than larger trials. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings challenge the widely held belief that the quality of the evidence on the effectiveness of herbal medicine is generally inferior to the evidence available for conventional medicine.

Multilead quantitative electroencephalogram profile and cognitive evoked potentials (P300) in healthy subjects after a single dose of olanzapine

RATIONALE: Olanzapine is an atypical antipsychotic drug with a more favourable safety profile than typical antipsychotics with a hitherto unknown topographic quantitative electroencephalogram (QEEG) profile. OBJECTIVES: We investigated electrical brain activity (QEEG and cognitive event related potentials, ERPs) in healthy subjects who received olanzapine. METHODS: Vigilance-controlled, 19-channel EEG and ERP in an auditory odd-ball paradigm were recorded before and 3 h, 6 h and 9 h after administration of either a single dose of placebo or olanzapine (2.5 mg and 5 mg) in ten healthy subjects. QEEG was analysed by spectral analysis and evaluated in nine frequency bands. For the P300 component in the odd-ball ERP, the amplitude and latency was analysed. Statistical effects were tested using a repeated-measurement analysis of variance. RESULTS: For the interaction between time and treatment, significant effects were observed for theta, alpha-2, beta-2 and beta-4 frequency bands. The amplitude of the activity in the theta band increased most significantly 6 h after the 5-mg administration of olanzapine. A pronounced decrease of the alpha-2 activity especially 9 h after 5 mg olanzapine administration could be observed. In most beta frequency bands, and most significantly in the beta-4 band, a dose-dependent decrease of the activity beginning 6 h after drug administration was demonstrated. Topographic effects could be observed for the beta-2 band (occipital decrease) and a tendency for the alpha-2 band (frontal increase and occipital decrease), both indicating a frontal shift of brain electrical activity. There were no significant changes in P300 amplitude or latency after drug administration. Conclusion: QEEG alterations after olanzapine administration were similar to EEG effects gained by other atypical antipsychotic drugs, such as clozapine. The increase of theta activity is comparable to the frequency distribution observed for thymoleptics or antipsychotics for which treatment-emergent somnolence is commonly observed, whereas the decrease of beta activity observed after olanzapine administration is not characteristic for these drugs. There were no clear signs for an increased cerebral excitability after a single-dose administration of 2.5 mg and 5 mg olanzapine in healthy controls.

Analysis of genetic parentage in the tawny owl (Strix aluco) reveals extra-pair paternity is low

We have investigated genetic parentage in a Swiss population of tawny owls (Strix aluco). To this end, we performed genetic analysis for six polymorphic loci of 49 avian microsatellite loci tested for cross-species amplification. We found one extra-pair young out of 137 (0.7%) nestlings in 37 families (2.7%). There was no intra-specific brood parasitism. Our results are in accordance with previous findings for other raptors and owls that genetic monogamy is the rule. Female tawny owls cannot raise offspring without a substantial contribution by their mates. Hence one favoured hypothesis is that high paternal investment in reproduction selects for behaviour that prevents cuckoldry.

Effect of echo time pair selection on quantitative analysis for adrenal tumor characterization with in-phase and opposed-phase MR imaging: initial experience

PURPOSE: To determine the effect of two pairs of echo times (TEs) for in-phase (IP) and opposed-phase (OP) 3.0-T magnetic resonance (MR) imaging on (a) quantitative analysis prospectively in a phantom study and (b) diagnostic accuracy retrospectively in a clinical study of adrenal tumors, with use of various reference standards in the clinical study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A fat-saline phantom was used to perform IP and OP 3.0-T MR imaging for various fat fractions. The institutional review board approved this HIPAA-compliant study, with waiver of informed consent. Single-breath-hold IP and OP 3.0-T MR images in 21 patients (14 women, seven men; mean age, 63 years) with 23 adrenal tumors (16 adenomas, six metastases, one adrenocortical carcinoma) were reviewed. The MR protocol involved two acquisition schemes: In scheme A, the first OP echo (approximately 1.5-msec TE) and the second IP echo (approximately 4.9-msec TE) were acquired. In scheme B, the first IP echo (approximately 2.4-msec TE) and the third OP echo (approximately 5.8-msec TE) were acquired. Quantitative analysis was performed, and analysis of variance was used to test for differences between adenomas and nonadenomas. RESULTS: In the phantom study, scheme B did not enable discrimination among voxels that had small amounts of fat. In the clinical study, no overlap in signal intensity (SI) index values between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05) with scheme A. However, with scheme B, no overlap in the adrenal gland SI-to-liver SI ratio between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05). With scheme B, no overlap in adrenal gland SI index-to-liver SI index ratio between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05). CONCLUSION: This initial experience indicates SI index is the most reliable parameter for characterization of adrenal tumors with 3.0-T MR imaging when obtaining OP echo before IP echo. When acquiring IP echo before OP echo, however, nonadenomas can be mistaken as adenomas with use of the SI index value.

Course of psychological variables in whiplash injury--a 2-year follow-up with age, gender and education pair-matched patients

This study evaluated the course of psychological variables during a 2-year follow-up in patients after common whiplash of the cervical spine. From a sample of 117 non-selected patients with common whiplash (investigated on average 7.2 +/- 4.2 days after trauma) a total of 21 suffered trauma-related symptoms over 2 years following initial injury. These patients (symptomatic group) were compared with 21 age, gender and education pair-matched patients, who showed complete recovery from trauma-related symptoms during the 2-year follow-up (asymptomatic group). Both groups underwent standardised testing procedures (i.e., Freiburg Personality Inventory and Well-Being Scale) at referral, and at 3, 6 and 24 months. In the symptomatic group during follow-up no significant changes in rating of neck pain or headache were found. Significant differences between the groups and significant deviation of scores over time were found on the Well-Being and Nervousness Scales. There was a lack of significant difference between the groups on the Depression Scale, indicating a possible somatic basis for changes in psychological functioning in the investigated sample. With regard to scales of Extraversion or Neuroticism, there were neither significant differences between the groups nor significant deviation over time. These results highlight that patients' psychological problems are rather a consequence than a cause of somatic symptoms in whiplash.