Winter precipitation trends for two selected European regions over the last 500 years and their possible dynamical background

We analyse winter (DJF) precipitation over the last 500 years on trends using a spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded multi-proxy reconstruction over European land areas. The trends are detected applying trend matrices, and the significance is assessed with the Mann–Kendall-trend test. Results are presented for southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco, two regions that show high reconstruction skill over the entire period. The absolute trend values found in the second part of the 20th century are unprecedented over the last 500 years in both regions. During the period 1715–1765, the precipitation trends were most pronounced in southwestern Norway as well as southern Spain/northern Morocco, with first a distinct negative trend followed by a positive countertrend of similar strength. Relating the precipitation time series to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the solar irradiance using running correlations revealed a couple of instationarities. Nevertheless, it appears that the NAO is responsible in both regions for most of the significant winter precipitation trends during the earlier centuries as well as during recent decades. Some of the significant winter precipitation trends over southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco might be related to changes in the solar irradiance.

Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

Strong Down-Valley Low-Level Jets over the Atacama Desert: Observational Characterization

The near-surface wind and temperature regime at three points in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile is described using two-year multi-level measurements from 80-m towers located in an altitude range between 2100 and 2700 m ASL. The data reveal the frequent development of strong nocturnal drainage flows at all sites. Down-valley nose-shaped wind speed profiles are observed with maximum values occurring at heights between 20 m and 60 m AGL. The flow intensity shows considerable inter-daily variability and a seasonal modulation of maximum speeds, which in the cold season can attain hourly average values larger than 20 m s−1. Turbulent mixing appears significant over the full tower layer, affecting the curvature of the nighttime temperature profile and possibly explaining the observed increase of surface temperatures in the down-valley direction. Nocturnal valley winds and temperatures are weakly controlled by upper-air conditions observed at the nearest aerological station. Estimates of terms in the momentum budget for the development and the quasi-stationary phases of the down-valley flows suggest that the pressure gradient force due to the near-surface cooling along the sloping valley axes plays an important role in these drainage flows. A scale for the jet nose height of equilibrium turbulent down-slope jets is proposed, based on surface friction velocity and surface inversion intensity. At one of the sites this scale explains about 70% of the case-to-case observed variance of jet nose heights. Further modeling and observational work is needed, however, in order to better define the dynamics, extent and turbulence structure of this flow system, which has significant wind-energy, climatic and environmental implications.

Restorative dentistry and restorative materials over the next 20 years: A Delphi survey

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to forecast trends in restorative dentistry over the next 20 years and to identify treatment goals and corresponding properties of restorative materials. METHODS Using the Delphi method, a panel of 3 experts identified 8 key questions, which were sent to experts in restorative and preventive dentistry. In round 1 of this survey, 15 international experts devised a clearer semantic definition of the key questions and the completion of respective items for two additional rounds. In round 2, 125 experts from 35 countries rated the items developed in round 1 using a Likert scale. In round 3, the same 125 experts received the ratings of round 2 and were asked to agree or disagree to these ratings by re-voting on all key questions and items. A total of 105 experts re-voted and finally took part in the complete survey. Among the 8 key questions, two questions were selected for the present report: (Q1) "What will be the future role of restorative treatment?" and (Q6) "What will be the key qualities for clinical success of restorations?" For both questions and the respective items, the experts were asked to evaluate the importance and the feasibility for later calculation of the scientific value (i.e. the opportunity, where opportunity=importance+[importance-feasibility]). RESULTS The three items of highest importance for Q1 were "preservation of existing enamel and dentin tissue," "prevention of secondary caries," and "maintenance of the pulp vitality," and for Q6 they were "optimization of adhesion," "biocompatibility," and "minimizing technical sensitivity." SIGNIFICANCE Bioactivity toward the pulp-dentin complex and prevention of secondary caries were the items generally rated as having the highest opportunity.

Double-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation over the frontal eye field facilitates triggering of memory-guided saccades.

The study investigated the influence of double-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (dTMS) on memory-guided saccade triggering. Double pulses with interstimulus intervals (ISIs) of 35, 50, 65 or 80 ms were applied over the right frontal eye field (FEF) and as control over the occipital cortex. A significant dTMS effect was found exclusively for contralateral saccades; latency of memory-guided saccades was reduced after FEF stimulation with an ISI of 50 ms compared to latency without stimulation. This effect proved to be specific for the ISI of 50 ms over the FEF because control stimulation with the same ISI over the occipital cortex had no significant effect on latency of memory-guided saccades. The results of our study showed that, by using an appropriate ISI, dTMS is able to facilitate contralateral saccade triggering by stimulating the FEF. This suggests that TMS interferes specifically with saccade triggering mechanisms, probably by acting on presaccadic neurons of the FEF.

Participation in Further Education over the Life Course: a longitudinal study of three birth cohorts in the Federal Republic of Germany

In this paper we address the issue of who is most likely to participate in further training, for what reasons and at what stage of the life course. Special emphasis is given to the impact of labour-market policies to encourage further education and a person's individual or cohort possibilities to participate in further education. We apply a Cox proportional hazard model to data from the West German Life History Study, separately for women and men, within and outside the firm. Younger cohorts show not only higher proportions of participation in further education and training at early stages of the life course, they also continue to participate in higher numbers during later stages of the life course. General labour-force participation reduces and tenure with the same firm increases the propensity to participate in further education and training. Contrary to expectations, in Germany labour-market segmentation has been enhanced rather than reduced by further education and training policies, since in the firm-specific labour-market segment, i.e. skilled jobs in large firms, and in the public sector both women and men had a higher probability of participation. Particularly favourable conditions for participation in further education outside the firm prevailed during the first years of the labour promotion act (Arbeitsförderungsgesetz) between 1969 and 1974, but women did not benefit to the same extent as men. Training policies are, therefore, in need of continuous assessment based on a goal-achievement evaluation to avoid any unintended effects of such policies.